USD/CAD) Down Trand Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD (U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar) on the 1-hour timeframe, with a focus on a potential double-top formation at strong resistance, followed by a drop toward support:
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Analysis Overview
Trend Structure: Downward-sloping channel with lower highs and lower lows.
Confluence Area: The current rally is approaching both the upper channel boundary and a significant horizontal resistance zone (~1.3660–1.3700).
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Key Technical Elements
1. Resistance & Double-Top Setup
The price nears the resistance zone (yellow) where it previously reversed (noted by red arrows).
A cap-and-float pattern (double/top-like structure) is projected: price pushes higher, hesitates, tests resistance again, then fails—a sign of weakening bullish momentum.
2. EMA 200 Interaction
The 1-hour EMA 200 (blue line at ~1.3635) sits just below current price.
A failure to sustain above this level reinforces the bearish case.
3. RSI Overextension
RSI (14) is around 64–69, indicating near-overbought conditions on this timeframe, suggesting a potential pullback.
4. Price Targets
Initial target: Lower channel boundary near 1.3556 (highlighted support).
Extended target: Beneath to 1.3540, aligning with the broader Demand zone.
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Proposed Trade Setup
Step Action Level
Entry Short near top of resistance/channel (after double-top confirmation) 1.3680–1.3700
Stop-Loss Above recent high and channel resistance ~1.3720
Take Profit 1 Near EMA 200/lower channel bounce ~1.3556
Take Profit 2 Extended move to demand zone ~1.3540
Estimated Move ~1.15% drop from midday highs –
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Risk & Event Factors
Scheduled Canadian or U.S. data releases (icons shown) could introduce volatility and disrupt technical patterns.
A breakout above ~1.3720 would invalidate this bearish thesis and shift bias bullish.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary
Expecting a cap-and-float double-top formation at key resistance near 1.3660–1.3700, followed by a trend continuation drop toward 1.3556–1.3540. The bearish setup is supported by a down-channel structure, EMA 200 failure, and overbought RSI conditions.
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USDCAD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCAD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCAD - Daily Trade Idea - 29-Jul-22USDCAD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1, TP 2 , TP 3 and EXIT (SL) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
USDCAD ShortUSD/CAD rallied on Friday to the highest level since December 2020, further beyond 1.2900, This was due to the recent slump in crude oil prices, undermined the commodity-linked loonie (CAD - Canadian Dollar),
We expecting the pair to re-test the key support levels listed on the chart, due to uncertainty on the financial ( Afghanistan ) before a BULLISH continuation.
We taking this trade based on technical analysis, Fundamental and candlestick patterns.
Please use proper risk management depending on your account size, Use lot sizes based on these calculations.
Here is a break down of your pip value in ZAR and Dollars
0, 01 = R1,43 / $0,10c
0. 05 = R 7,15 / $ 0.50
0.10 = R 14,3 / $1.00
1 Lot size = R 146,26
How to calculate Margin = (Lot Size * Contract Size)/Leverage, Lets say your broker gives you 1:500, and you open 0,2 size, How much are you exposing ? calculations : (0.2 * 10 000) / 500 = $4 (R58) also (1 Lot * 100 000) / 500 = $200 (R2 960)
So, each time I open (1 Lot size, am exposing R2960 (Down payment)
Remember, These are long term trades, It is advisable to have enough margin to handle the fluctuation of the markets.
Please like and share for more useful content:
USDCAD approaching resistance, potential drop! USDCAD is approaching our first resistance at 1.2960 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 1.2858 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
USD/CAD SHORTFundamentals:- We are expecting weaker data coming out from USA in terms of CPI, PPI and retail sales this week and on the Canadian side we are expecting to see an increase in inflation. We do need Oil to find support in order for this trade to work and will watch the correlation throughout the trade.
Technicals:- We are experiencing a pull back from the correction of the January high but with each previous pull back the price has rejected the 200 MA we are looking for that rejection again now.