UAWAG/USD / Salaries in UkraineUAWAG/USD Analysis with Geopolitical Context:
The chart reflects the average wage in Ukraine denominated in USD, showing significant fluctuations over time. Key dates are marked on the chart, which align with potential changes in geopolitical scenarios and their impact on Ukraine's economy.
Key Dates and Potential Influences:
July 2027 (07/01/27) - Post-Conflict Economic Rebuilding:
Scenario: By mid-2027, if the previously discussed freeze or resolution in the conflict with Russia is maintained, Ukraine could enter a phase of economic rebuilding. International aid, investments in infrastructure, and efforts to stabilize the economy may start showing tangible results.
Impact on Salaries: With the economy stabilizing, there may be gradual improvement in wages, especially in USD terms. However, this growth may still be modest due to the lingering effects of the war and the ongoing need to rebuild various sectors.
June 2029 (06/01/29) - Economic Strengthening and Wage Growth:
Scenario: Assuming continued stability and successful economic policies, Ukraine could see more robust economic growth by 2029. This period might mark the beginning of a significant improvement in living standards, with the possibility of higher foreign investments and stronger currency reserves.
Impact on Salaries: Average wages in USD could see a notable increase during this period, driven by economic growth, a stronger Hryvnia, and improved employment opportunities. This would be a positive period for the Ukrainian workforce.
June 2033 (06/01/33) - Potential Economic Challenges or Recession:
Scenario: Around 2033, external factors such as global economic conditions, shifts in trade dynamics, or even internal political changes could introduce economic challenges for Ukraine. This might include a recession or a slowdown in economic growth.
Impact on Salaries: In such a scenario, wage growth could stall or even decline. Inflationary pressures, reduced foreign investments, or economic mismanagement might erode the gains made in the previous years, leading to lower average wages in USD terms.
January 2038 (01/10/38) - Long-Term Economic Outlook:
Scenario: By 2038, the economic landscape could stabilize after the challenges of the early 2030s. This period might see Ukraine either recover from or adapt to the economic shifts of the previous decade. The outcome will largely depend on global economic conditions and Ukraine's integration into international markets.
Impact on Salaries: Wages in USD might start to improve again, reflecting a more stable and potentially growing economy. However, the pace of this recovery would likely be slow, contingent on the broader global economy and Ukraine's ability to maintain political and economic stability.
Conclusion:
The UAWAG/USD chart highlights the potential for significant wage fluctuations in Ukraine over the next decade. Key events, such as the resolution of the conflict with Russia, economic rebuilding, and possible future economic challenges, will all play crucial roles in determining the average wage levels in USD.
While there is potential for wage growth, particularly in the late 2020s, there are also risks associated with global economic conditions and internal political stability that could hinder this growth. As a result, Ukrainian workers and policymakers should be prepared for both opportunities and challenges as the country navigates this complex economic landscape.
Ultimately, these projections underscore the importance of strategic economic planning and the need for Ukraine to build resilience against external shocks while fostering sustainable economic growth.
UAHUSD
USDUAH Analysis USDUAH Analysis with Geopolitical Context:
This chart represents the USD to UAH (Ukrainian Hryvnia) exchange rate, showing a significant trend of USD strengthening against the UAH. The chart provides a clear visual on future potential movements, marked by key dates that align with potential geopolitical events.
Key Dates and Events:
September 2025 (09/01/25) - Conflict "Freeze" and Temporary Peace:
Scenario: As we discussed, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could enter a phase of "freezing" around this time. This period might not bring complete peace but rather a significant reduction in active military engagements.
Impact on Currency: The temporary halt in hostilities could stabilize the UAH slightly, preventing further devaluation. However, the economic scars of the war might keep the exchange rate volatile.
May 2029 (05/10/29) - Resumption of Conflict or New Escalations:
Scenario: After a few years of relative calm, a renewed phase of conflict or escalation between Ukraine and Russia could begin. This may be driven by unresolved territorial disputes or political changes in either country or their allies.
Impact on Currency: This would likely lead to another sharp depreciation of the UAH, as markets react to the increased uncertainty and economic strain of renewed military action.
May 2032 (05/03/32) - Potential Full-Scale Conflict:
Scenario: The situation could deteriorate into a more severe conflict or widespread regional instability. This period might mark the beginning of a more protracted and intense phase of war.
Impact on Currency: A full-scale conflict would severely weaken the UAH, potentially pushing it to historical lows. The Ukrainian economy would face enormous pressure, leading to further devaluation.
April 2037 (04/10/37) - Stabilization and Possible Recovery:
Scenario: By this time, the conflict might have resolved, or at least the region could have entered a period of prolonged stability. This could be due to international interventions, peace treaties, or significant changes in political leadership.
Impact on Currency: The UAH might begin a slow recovery if stability is restored and economic rebuilding starts. However, this recovery would be gradual and dependent on the extent of damage done to the Ukrainian economy.
Conclusion:
UAH will likely experience significant volatility over the next decade, heavily influenced by the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. Each of the marked dates corresponds to potential shifts in the conflict with Russia, with major implications for the UAH. Investors and policymakers should closely monitor these dates and prepare for various scenarios, ranging from temporary stability to severe economic downturns.
These forecasts underscore the importance of strategic planning in uncertain times. The potential "freeze" in conflict might offer temporary relief, but the possibility of renewed or intensified conflict in later years looms large, making the future of the UAH highly uncertain.
XLM UAH as an indicator of XLM growthHryvnia as an indicator of XLM growth is also a graph that shows when there will be an introduction of digital hryvnia based on xlm defined agreement between the Ukrainian authorities and Stellar developers already exists. With a high probability before solving the hryvnia problem, they will create a serious fall in UAH to which zone the analysis will be in the next idea and the solution will be in the form of creating a digital hryvnia in the application
Ukranian Hyvrnia potential devaluation Headed to breakout To 32-35 USDUAH levels
Watch out, also bondholders of: corporate and government debt of this country; like Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Morgan Stanley, ....
At some point kind of intervention will be done but during March or April 2022
Gold may have a big spike over 2,000 USD and many cryptos will suffer hard redemptions.
USDUAH - Inflation in UkraineUSDUAH -either the economy improves in Ukraine and the dollar falls
or the second option from this level is a new growth cycle;
In Ukraine, changes in monetary circulation, which will take place in the near future.
There will be a new banknote 1000UAH
1,2,5 kopecks will be gone from use already tomorrow
USDUAH | Still on WatchlistThe hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we are heading toward the 61.8 Fibo. Above the 61.8 Fibo the USD is still bullish. Below the 61.8 Fibo we have a bit more neutrality with support close at the weekly EMA200 (good place to hedge UAH and/or go long USD).
USDUAH | Added to WatchlistUkraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here.
1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change.
2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change
3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as the latter appreciated by nearly 7% in the last 12 months.
PS. Ukraine had an election in April that resulted in regime change (old banking elites are recapturing the government). The country has the highest NPL in the world and a very precarious situation is stirring in the Ukrainian banking system involving the largest bank by assets, Privatbank which was nationalized in 2017. This may result in NPL issues resurfacing with changes in the banking system, the restitution of Privatbank to former owners, or just some kind of accounting rule or bank reserve requirement changing the outlook for the Hryvnia. Sovereign credit issues may also pop up involving the IMF, so this pair could get very interesting to trade.