10/3/21 UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
Sector: Transportation (Airlines)
Current Price: $51.34
Breakout price trigger: $50.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $49.60-$46.80
Price Target: $52.80-$53.20 (1st), $54.90-$55.60 2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 25-27d (1st), 67-70d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $UAL 10/15/21 52c, $UAL 12/17/21 55c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.40/cnt , $2.49/cnt
UAL
Rolling (IRA): UAL October 15th 48 to November 19th 48... short call for a 1.37 credit.
Comments: Trying to milk a little more out of this covered call by rolling the short call aspect out a month to November while the implied is >50%. My cost basis in my shares was 46.93 (See Post Below); rolling out the short call reduces that to 45.56 with a max profit potential of the short call strike (48.00) minus my cost basis (45.56) or 2.44 ($244).
Opening (IRA): UAL October 15th 48/60 Short Call Vertical... for a 1.07 credit.
Comments: I have a September 17th in-the-money 48 short put that I will be assigned on, as I don't see this ripping to 48 by the end of the day. The short call aspect of this spread will cover the stock once I'm assigned, with the buying power attributable to the spread being freed up after assignment of the stock. Because I've attributed the credit received for the 48 to another UAL position (January 47 covered calls), I'm treating this as a new trade for cost basis purposes with the resulting cost basis being the short call strike (48.00) minus the credit received here of 1.07 or 46.93/share.
I ordinarily just wait until assignment, but wanted to do some of my post-opex housekeeping today.
UAL: ABCD upside tradeI like to see ABCD patterns after a double bottom, especially with momentum strengthening.
This move should pan out within a week. If it doesn't, chances are the pattern isn't playing out.
Disclaimer: I'm not giving any trading and investing advice. I'm just sharing my chart observations.
If you have any symbols that you'd like me to analyze, feel free to drop me a comment.
Take-off for UAL but it could be a dangerous flightUAL recently smacked a support level at around $48 and seems it could possible rebound to the upside. However there is very major catalysts for UAL to further within the coming weeks. Covid is still relentless as always and with the new 'Delta variant' proving to be more adaptive, and dangerous it could potentially impact the already suffering fundamentals of the airline industry. One thing going against the virus is the current vaccine rollout which is currently on par with expectations. This could then act as a buffer for UAL despite the new developing strains such as the delta and lambda variants.
As its currently summer in the US as expected flights have been increasing and interestingly enough even bet pre-Covid levels which is great news for UAL and other airlines.
From a technical standpoint indicators push a bullish narrative with the Bollinger bands, rsi and mean reversion being oversold signalling a buy opportunity.
Alot of support levels also were prominent where there was support level from the 32.8% Fibonacci level, linear regression aswell as the 180 day sma.
Overall it appears like UAL has momentum to launch from its current price, possibly to $53 prior to hitting a resistance channel. However due to the nature of the company negative news sentiment will be very influentially on the stocks price so be wary.
Rolling (IRA): UAL September 17th 41 Short Put to the 48... for an .81/contract credit.
Comments: A continuation of my covered strangle, consisting of January '22 47 covered calls plus the short puts. It's taken off quite rapidly here, so rolled the short put up today to reduce cost basis further. Cost basis at 41.32 (See Post Below) minus .81 or 40.51. This will make this a nice winner assuming the short put approaches worthless, and it stays above 47 running into January expiry.
AAL - Airlines recovery, BUY opportunityWe can see a nice wedge breakouts on rising volume in airlines.
Fundamentally, we should take into a consideration deffered demand on trips due to COVID restrictions. Combined with Technical Analysis it means that airlines have space to growth.
I am publishing this idea a bit later then I should, but still it is a great buy opportunity.
Keep in mind your possible risks. Probably AAL will give a chance to take a large position on retest (level 22.30). Stop Loss 21.00
$ ROKU $RBLX $UAL $C I OptionsSwing WatchlistROKU 15M I ROKU has been squeezing tight after reporting earnings and it is trading within a wedge on the 15 minute time frame.
RBLX 15M I Performed well after its recent earnings and investors are seeing as more than just a game. Looking to trade a breakout from the current downtrend.
UAL 4H I As CDC softens its rules the travel industry gained some territory today. UAL is looking to break from a bull flag.
C 15M I Watching C break above ATH levels.
$JETS - Recovery of the Airline Industry“The U.S. Global Jets ETF $JETS provides investors access to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world.”
TECHNICALS
$JETS is currently trading at $25.50 which is 13% below their most recent high of $28.98 which was made in March 2021. The stock has been in an upward trend since October 2020 as a result of increased vaccinations around the world and strong guidance. As seen on the chart, between 2017 and early 2020 $JETS established a strong support zone between $27.50 and $28.50. With travel expected to increase into the summer and vaccinations continue to be rolled out, $JETS can potentially see a 10% move and settle between $27.50 and $28.50 in the coming months.
RECOVERY
Based on their most recent earnings reports, airline companies such as $AAL, $DAL, $LUV, and $UAL have all posted that their revenue is up 100% or more from their pandemic lows. Although revenue is sitting around 50% of pre-pandemic levels, the growing number suggests that the industry is recovering.
RISKS
The greatest risk to the travel industry at the moment is the massive increase in covid cases in India and the emergence of the new covid variant B.1.617. Although much more information is needed, the new variant appears to be spreading at a much faster rate than before and it is unknown if vaccines will help prevent the contraction of the virus.
Anthony, OptionsSwing Analyst