Rolling (IRA): UAL June 42 Short Put to September 41... for a 1.09 credit.
Notes: A continuation of my UAL covered strangle. (See Post Below). Now that earnings are in the rear view mirror, rolling out to reduce cost basis further (now at 41.32) while simultaneously reducing risk a little bit since the September 16 delta is a little more away from current price. A little bit longer in duration than I'd like to go, but there's no July to roll to.
UAL
Rolling (IRA): UAL June 16th 32 Short Put to the June 16th 42... for a .64 credit.
Notes: A continuation of my UAL covered strangle which consists of a (now) monied Jan '22 47 covered call and a short put. Price has ripped through my short call strike (which is fine; it's got plenty of time to go, so just going to leave it alone, let the extrinsic piss out on the call side). Reducing cost basis a smidge further by rolling up the June 32 to the 42 for a credit. Cost basis of 42.41, so a current max profit potential of the short call strike (47) minus the cost basis of 42.41 or 4.59. Earnings are in 44 days, but am going to go ahead and "play through" ... .
UAL - Bullish Inverse head and shoulders patternUAL - United airlines has a bullish Inverse head and shoulders pattern on daily chart. Options flow - Over 27,000 June $50 calls traded friday. 6000 $45 April calls traded vs 8 in open interest. More flights starting as more vaccines get to people , you could call this a "re-opening" trade. I own march calls in JETS etf. Cheers!
UAL Bullish Flag Identified. Growth to be continued! Welcome!
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Profitlio Trading.
OPENING (IRA): UAL MARCH 19TH 33 SHORT PUT... for a .91 credit.
Notes: Here, an addition to my Jan '22 47 covered strangle in UAL to reduce cost basis further, which currently consists of (a) a Jan '22 47 covered call; (b) a February 19th 35 short put; (c) a March 19th 33 short put; and (c) a June 18th 32 short put. Cost basis is currently at 42.75 versus where the underlying is currently trading at 40.27.
30-day's at 67.3% with expiry-specific at 66.7%, with earnings in the rear view, so it could be fine as a stand alone trade (2.84% ROC at max as a function of notional risk).
THE WEEK AHEAD: HAL, NFLX, AA, UAL EARNINGS; EWZ, XLE, SLV, IWMHIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS SINGLE NAME EARNINGS (LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT AND SCREENED FOR >50% 30-DAY IMPLIED):
HAL (13/61/13.9%),* Tuesday, before market open
NFLX (25/50/11.3%), Tuesday, after market close
AA (18/69/15.9%), Wednesday, after market close
UAL (13/64/14.8%), Wednesday, after market close
From a bang for your buck perspective: AA ranks first, UAL, second, followed by NFLX, and HAL.
I already have a covered strangle on in UAL and don't anticipate putting on more single name risk in the IRA (which is my primary focus running into retirement), but will naturally post a play should I get into one.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY AND RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
EWZ (18/45/10.3%)
XLE (23/42/9.7%)
SLV (25/42/9.4%)
GDX (12/38/9.2%)
XBI (18/37/8.7%)
KRE (16/36/8.7%)
EWW (15/36/7.5%)
I'm already in everything here but for KRE and EWW (the lowest bangs for your buck on the list) and the February monthly is a bit short in duration here for me (34 days) and March a tad long (62 days), so I may not do much this week in these, although going out to March with another rung in my GDX, SLV, and XBI positions isn't out of the question.
BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED:
IWM (24/32/6.8%)
QQQ (22/30/6.4%)
SPY (16/24/4.8%)
DIA (13/23/4.6%)
EFA (14/20/3.8%)
In spite of the fact that IWM and/or RUT have the higher 30-day, I may look at adding a July (181 days) rung to the SPY short put ladder I have on in the IRA, targeting the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit (which would currently be something like the 240), and do the kind of "opportunistic rolling" I've been doing with shorter duration rungs. (See Post Below). Although most frown upon going out this far in time, it's a way to deploy otherwise underutilized buying power that will earn something >0% while I work shorter duration setups or wait for a higher implied volatility environment and/or greater weakness. Additionally, my goals for the IRA are somewhat modest from a return on capital standpoint: I'm not looking to hit homers or be an incredibly attentive investor, opting for a once a week or even a once a month schedule of looking at things, making adjustments as appropriate, and/or taking off stuff approaching worthless that doesn't merit hanging onto due to the amount of time left in the contract.
* -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where the 30-day is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, thirty day implied; and the third, the percentage the at-the-money short straddle in the February monthly is paying as a function of stock price.
United Airlines direction, where now?United Airlines seems to be aiming to around 40.5 after breaking down the uptrending tunnels.
Watch for a rebound at around 40.5 which can be a great entry. Around 40.5 seems to be a great support zone!
Also my AHL indicator shows narrowing highs and lows which can be interpreted as a reversal might occur soon.
JETS flagging on new channelTechnical Analysis
On november 24th, JETS broke out above its june highs, and consolidated (orange square), demonstrating a successful break out of the channel. Now it shows a flag, showing potential for more upside.
There is a strong resistance level at $27.7; at this point I would expect a pullback, to ultimately reach the top of the gap around $30.
I am using a stop under the 10sma to take partial profits.
Fundamental Analysis
The market is a forward looking mechanism, with the path of the recovery setting a potential comeback for Airlines for Spring; JETS is fundamentally undervalued right now.
Collecting Premium on UALPre-market the UAL 20NOV20 $40 call shows an Open interest of 2608. The Probability of the option being in the money is only 27.5% and there is also a 72.25% implied volatility included in the price. With a 72.5% chance that this option will expire worthless we can create a simple spread to be able to collect the premium of the option that is around 30 days to expiration.