A Major Bearish Cross For United ContinentalOn April 7, 2017, the United Continental Airlines ( UAL ) 50 daily moving average (DMA) crossed below its 100 DMA. Historically this has occurred 16 times and the stock drops a minimum of 1.016%. The stock has a median loss of 6.904% and a maximum loss of 47.248% over the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 52.1533. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral, and has been trending up.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -9.9279. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is down, but could head up soon.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1103. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been up, but has begun a slight retreat.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 79.2644 and D value is 84.3425. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is overbought and due to head down.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be neutral and possibly heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 3% over the next 10 trading days. Although this DMA cross has only occurred 16 times, other indications support a near-term drop of more than 1%.
UAL
UAL: Long term long positionI reccomend taking longs in UAL at market price, it'll be a good addition to your portfolio here. Risk a new monthly low, and enter at market. We will trade around this core position in lower timeframes if doable. With oil sky high and about to turn down, I feel this is an ideal vehicle to profit from the incoming drop.
Risk 0.5% on this entry for now.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
UAL 2016 Plan - $30 before we see $80?Bear short term when we rally above $50 to sell down to sub $30.
Sub $30 looking to get long targeting +$75.
A. Bull range recoil ... that looking to short into recoil to 50% fib
Range set 2007-2009 $2.70 - $51
End of 2014 broke north on range now in recoil phase with pull back projected sub $30
B. Bear range recoil ... looking for rally to sell into
Range set Aug - Sep 2015 $49 - $62.20
Start of 2016 broke south, recoiled all the way to $61.20 (missed that short trade) and now looking to move sub $42... and i think to 2.618 fib around $29. Hoping we get a decent rally on the daily to give me that opportunity.
C. 4 year bull trend line broke at start of 2016 (set up from Oct 2012) just before Aug- Sep'15 range broke. Projection from that break targets $29.
Key Hidden Levels: A few trades we sharedThese are a few trades we shared at the KHL chatroom, I have shared the link in my previous posts.
If you're interested in learning more about the methods used by Tim West, which I learned and apply in my own trading, contact me privately. I also offer a signals service, with more setups, for FX, equities, metals and oil for the most part.
It's clear the market is in an uptrend for now. There is an uptrend signal in SPY, which indicates we might see a reaction by the 14-15th, which happens to match the FOMC meeting date. I reccomend monitoring equity longs closely by then. I'm in these and a few other trades, and I'll be looking to book profits safely. I'll update this publication if needed.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
UAL: Long term long entryWe have shared this entry in the KHL chatroom. You can still enter at market, or buy dips to the key level at 45.
With oil possibly topping for the year, this can be an excellent trade.
Props to Tim West and his Key Hidden Levels. I've come a long way thanks to his mentoring.
Leave comments if you take the trade with me here (or if you've taken any of the ones I posted before). It's a great encouragement, and can sometimes have a bigger impact than just material gratification from succesful trades, or from my customer base.
Have a nice weekend!
Ivan Labrie.
DOW Transports To Retest Recent Lows(Note: DOWT is no longer in a bear market after rallying the last two weeks)
2015 was suppose to be just another year of the epic bull market created by reckless central banking policies. Some Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 were as high as 2,300. Me? I projected a contraction to 1,810 in mid-January.
Whether or not the SPX will reach my target within the next 10 weeks, or so, is uncertain; but what has been quite clear is the scaffolding holding with risk assets around the global has been crumbling for sometime.
In " Is A Storm Brewing? How History is Repeating Itself ," I was clear and concise in what 2015 had in store (posted Jan. 13, 2015):
I support the idea that we are on the precipitous of something disastrous.
Those who constantly look at underlying factors and notice the shifts in the FX, commodity and economic data are witnessing that the latest boom cycle is on its last leg.
In essence, the post was a summery of the marco trends few wrote about because everybody indulged in the feel-good of rising stock prices.
The post ended quite ominously: "2015 is going to be mercurial…"
On March 26, I indicated that the DOW transports looked technically weak. Price action had been consolidating early in the year, much like the SPX. The index made several lower highs, higher lows and finally broke support at 8600.
Nobody was even looking at the transports as a potential catalyst to drag the broader markets lower, even though that is historically the case.
For instance, Cowen Group's Head of Sales, David Seaburg, said, as late as June 25 (after the the transports already began weakening underneath consolidation), "Everyone is up in arms about the transports, but the underperformance has very little to do with a weak economy and has more to do with the structural issues within the sector."
Seaburg also said that "I DEFINITELY don't see any downside (broader markets) necessarily." Almost a month-to-the-day, not only did the DOW and SPX hit their first 10 percent correction in four years, the DOW transports fell into bear market territory. Awkward.
Those that live by subjectivity, die by subjectivity.
The broader markets did receive a massive bounce following the largest NYSE short-interest since the Lehman Brothers collapse, but the transports has been rejected twice from 8,250, or the 23.6% Fib. retracement from the 2012-lows.
It's important to note that central bank credibility is fading fast, and traders will become more wary as the year winds down. Structurally, the index looks weak as earnings have been lackluster to not good at all.
EMAs are showing bullishness on the daily, as they are sloping upward. However, a close above 8,250 will be needed to garner any significant technical buying in my opinion.
Price action is within a large symmetrical triangle with price support of 7,970 cutting through the middle. This key, near-term support level could determine whether the index will test triangle support, which is supported by price support of 7,790.
A confirmed close below the triangle support will cause transports to retest the 2012 ascending trend line. I expect fundamentals to continue to deteriorate into 4Q, and the transports to challege 2011's trend (between 7,200 and 7,300).
Conversely, a close above triangle resistance could cause a rally to 8,500.
Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
www.investing.com
www.teachingcurrencytrading.com
oilpro.com
UAL is curling down This airline company found strong resistance zone at $48-$49. Bounced off it very agressively with gap down zone from $44 to $45 which is powerful sign that sellers keep control on price.
From fundamental point of view there is tension in Iraq - one of the biggest supplier of Oil in the worls. Break in supplies leads to higher prices and then higher costs for transport companies.
It pulled back to moving averages zone and now is curling down. You can put feeler here and on break down and close below $41.60 low.
Potential Target could be reversal point from April 28 at $38.
