CVR Partners $UAN a deep value play for 2023NYSE:UAN
A cheap fertilizer producer with strong fundamentals is a strong bet for 2023. Latest ER reported strong Revenue and EPS beats despite Russian fertiliser exports being at all time highs.
MR Quarterly production was impacted by maintenance - this work has been completed and it is likely that production volumes will return to normal this coming quarter likely boosting revenues this year.
Macro factors e.g. war in Eastern Europe will likely add uncertainty to the availability of fertilizer along key transport routes to western Europe as sanctions against Russia take effect - shipping routes from Turkey will likely be impacted.
I expect this stock has 20% upside by end of 2023 excluding dividend.
UAN
USD/UAN Ritual devaluation of the Ukrainian UAN. Situation nowRitual figures on the chart that were ahead of the events in Ukraine.
The timeframe on the chart is 1 week.
57 weeks (12) Time
399 days 21 (management changes)
Potential maximum channel height + 303%
57 weeks. 399 days.
It all depends on how the price fixes in these important areas. Fixing the price above a certain zone will mean further growth of the dollar and the depreciation of the hryvnia.
Target
1 zone + 47%
2 zone + 173%
3 zone + 303%
A well-run crowd works like one foolish person.
This graph shows the 1 day depreciation of the hryvnia in 2014 on the timeframe.
At that time, there were well-known sad events in Ukraine. Maidan. Coup d'etat. The war in the Donbass. Detachment of the Crimea. All numbers in key areas are readable in meaning and not random.
The schedule and non-random numbers in key areas were far ahead of events in the country. And not all the way around as the crowd thinks.
On the chart, the timeframe is 1 day.
The former ritual devaluation of the hryvnia.
Growth 288 bar. (18) -666
402d (42) Destruction change. Maidan. The war in Ukraine in the Donbass in 2014. Detachment of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine.
+ 310% (13 mirrored). The birth of a new government.
In order to always manage the herd, it is sometimes necessary to fulfill the insignificant desires of the sheep, so that faith in the herd is maintained that the wolf is not a wolf, but just a sheep in sheep's clothing.
In a herd, a person plays the role that the herd has formed and given to him. He is experiencing this role, he is comfortable in this role. Without this role, there will be the realization that he is a jerk, bio trash, one of many. Background player in a game. But when he is in the role, he is an important person, primarily for himself.
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Coup d'etat. "Maidan" and ritual figures.
Coup d'etat. "Maidan" - Independence Square in Ukraine
November 21, 2013 - February 22, 2014.
Everything is clear according to plan with pedantic observance of all ritual terms for the owners. It is very important.
As we see the numbers are not random. 21 = our century + 18-666 + 3 (the birth of a new one).
22 - change of what is.
Pay attention to which digits of the pulses of the maxima.
13,111
33,711
The years for the implementation of this local project are also not random.
2013 (13 new management)
2014 (14 destruction of the old government).
Not understanding people that they do not decide anything in their life, but are just fuel in someone else's game, just makes them that fuel
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Ukrainian bonds OBGZ and an hourly nuclear bomb for this country. The issue of OBGZ exceeded UAH 100 billion ($ 4.06 billion)!
This is a nuclear bomb with a clockwork for the Ukrainian economy, which would work without the global financial crisis.
The hryvnia will be in a very sad position.
What do you think is the secret to strengthening the hryvnia against the dollar in the fall of 2019?
The trick is issuing bonds of the internal state loan (OVDP) of Ukraine. For the first time in history, the issue of OBGZ exceeded UAH 100 billion ($ 4.06 billion) !!!
The vast majority of bonds owned by foreigners are issued in hryvnia (an average of UAH 98.17 billion, or $ 3.61 billion). The rest are issued in dollars and euros.
The Ministry of Finance on September 24 raised 13.2 billion hryvnias from the sale of government bonds.
Most of which came from 5-year bonds. Reports the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.
The total volume of 5-year government bonds reached 33.9 billion hryvnia.
Weighted average rates of return were:
for 6-month government bonds - 15.89%
for 1-year government bonds - 15.09%
Who does not understand all the salt that the state is forced to pay anyway! Even if there is a collapse of the economy! And he will be! Only default announcements give the state the right not to pay interest to investors, but then there is a risk of lowering the country's credit rating. And this is tantamount to default. As in this case, Ukraine will be equal in carelessness for investment with African countries.
If directly without water, then the whole of Ukraine was completely sold for a temporary benefit before the financial crisis. All national enterprises and lands will be transferred to "investors" who will force Ukraine to pay debts on their investments. A default announcement will not save how the IMF will declare a loan to repay the same debt on bonds at a certain percentage. Ukraine owes huge amounts to the Navy. And every newly made temporary "king" is not averse to taking a loan from the IMF to appease the people during his reign. And what will happen then does not interest him.
Do you think local actors in the government did not understand this? No, everyone understood and I am sure all these billions are already where they are needed. In the future, no one was planning to pay a percentage of income to investors in Ukrainian bonds, as it is physically impossible even without a financial crisis. Just local authorities took the opportunity. And it is clear that this was an order from above.
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EUR / RUB
I also did the EUR / RUB trading idea several days before the price increase at the lowest entry point when confirming support and the zone, I think this is also relevant, as it is the same trash currency.
Symmetric triangle. Trends Reversal zones.
The situation is now.
2 target achieved + 32%
$UAN CVR Partners A Breakout Above $4.35$UAN is setting up for a major breakout. We recommend going long on a break above $4.35
Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, CVR Partners, LP is a Delaware limited partnership focused on the production, marketing and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer products. It primarily produces urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia, which are predominantly used by farmers to improve the yield and quality of their crops. CVR Partners’ Coffeyville, Kansas, nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facility includes a 1,300 ton-per-day ammonia unit, a 3,000 ton-per-day UAN unit and a dual-train gasifier complex having a capacity of 89 million standard cubic feet per day of hydrogen. CVR Partners’ East Dubuque, Illinois, nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facility includes a 1,075 ton-per-day ammonia unit and a 1,100 ton-per-day UAN unit.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!