Based on the TLT pattern shown here, bonds may have much further below to go. They've continued to steadily sell off as rates have continued climbing, and show no signs of a long-term bounce. Target 1 has been breached, leaving target 2 in the crosshairs: $86-87.
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion,...
Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI. You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red. So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500...
Bonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and...
Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have...
Bond futures are rallying further this morning. It started yesterday and they are only accelerating. It's hard for me to believe that this acceleration is from the fed again. It is either old bitcoin investors that were scared away, or the investment funds are parkling their money somewhere "safe" for a few weeks until the fed speaks on June 15th. Something to...
Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support,...
The US Treasury Bond futures are forming another large wedge. You can see what happened after the last large bond wedge formed and broke its resistance upward. Also notice how the second valley is occurring at a new, long awaited, all time high. The bond wedge in Oct 2019 formed its 2nd trough as the SPY was breaking a long awaited new all time high too. I...