Uber
The Famous IPO Cycle. $UBER $LYFT $FB $SNAP // Uber overvalued?The Famous IPO Cycle. $UBER $LYFT $FB $SNAP
The Famous IPO Cycle. $UBER $LYFT $FB $SNAP
$UBER
In 2018, Dara Khosrowshahi's first full year as Uber's CEO, the company narrowed losses and continued to grow revenue, though at a slower pace than in the previous year.
According to the private company's self-reported financials, full-year revenue for 2018 was $11.3 billion, up 43 percent year over year.
Gross bookings, or the amount collected before payouts to drivers, grew to $50 billion for the year, up 45 percent from the prior year. Its adjusted losses decreased 15 percent in 2018 to $1.8 billion, down from $2.2 billion in 2017. The figure excludes the company's sale of its Russia and Southeast Asia businesses. Including those two sales to Yandex and Grab, respectively, Uber actually saw GAAP losses of $370 million. GAAP losses in 2017 were $4.5 billion.
So while the growth rate is strong by most standards, Uber's growth decelerated over 2018. On a quarterly basis, Uber continues to report heavy losses and slowing growth. Uber's revenue for the fourth quarter came in at $3 billion, up 25 percent from the same quarter last year, lower than the 38 percent it grew in Q3.
While that's not viable for most public companies, Uber is expected to go public this year with a rumored valuation of over $120 billion, and investors will have to decide if Uber's slowing growth warrants that valuation.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Uber also reported an adjusted loss of $768 million. A $358 million benefit from income taxes cut down what would have been a more than $840 million adjusted loss. Gross bookings for Q4 came in at $14.2 billion, up 37 percent from the same quarter a year prior. It's the highest it has ever been, the company told investors.
In the lead-up to its 2019 IPO, Uber is pitching itself as a full platform for transportation and logistics, not just ride-hailing. The company hopes that moonshot projects such as Uber freight, electronic bikes, autonomous driving and its development of flying cars will help it own a piece of every trip across any vehicle. However, these segments are costly for Uber to develop, weighing on Uber's long-term profitability.
Khosrowshahi took over Uber in November 2017 from founder Travis Kalanick. He inherited a company that was growing quickly but losing billions overseas and roiled by controversy and board infighting. One of his first moves was to retreat from Russia. A few months later, he sold Uber's unprofitable Southeast Asia business.
He has hired a CFO and COO, and so far, appears on track to bring the company public this year.
At the same time, Khosrowshahi has made big expensive bets, such as Uber's acquisition of the bike- and scooter-sharing start-up Jump, and doubling down on expanding Uber Eats.
Uber now considers food delivery part of its core business, along with ride-hailing. While it didn't break out UberEats for the fourth quarter, the segment made up 17 percent of its business in Q3. Back in October, Uber said it was expanding its food-delivery business to cover 70 percent of the U.S. by the end of 2018.
Uber's take rate, or the percentage of revenue Uber makes for every gross booking, declined in Q4. The company told investors that the decline is due to continued investment in new lines of business and rising competition.
Uber may be spending more in the lead-up to its IPO to shore up its market share. Research firm Second Measure shows that Lyft, Uber's largest U.S. competitor, has taken 28.9 percent of the market over the last year. Lyft is also gearing up for an IPO this year, and both companies are racing to get out first. Uber and Lyft filed to go public confidentially on the same day.
Uber's CFO, Nelson Chai, called 2018 the company's strongest year yet.
"Q4 set another record for engagement on our platform," Chai said in a statement. "In 2018, our ride sharing business maintained category leadership in all regions we serve, Uber Freight gained exciting traction in the US, JUMP e-bikes and e-scooters are on the road in over a dozen cities, and we believe Uber Eats became the largest online food delivery business outside of China, based on gross bookings."
SOURCE: CNBC
LYFT 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThe price has found support once again at the 55.75 level and started a small rally. I am quite optimistic about this stock as it has broken its unconfirmed descending trendline to the upside. This could be the start of a bull market. It has not been easy for investors in this stock as prices have tanked since its listing.
Further upward movement will also be confirmed if prices do breakout of the double bottom pattern and make new highs. However, it is important to wait first as price will show its hand in good time
Adyen - ShortAdyen lost a huge customer, Uber. Uber will handle payments itself and has received a license from De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) for handling all electronic payments.
I think Adyen has gone too far and is ready for a huge correction.
First price target: € 550
Second price target: € 400 - € 470
$LYFT Possible Reversal HereIf you measure from the highs to the lows (with the little trading data we currently have), you'll see that we have about a 37% decline from the IPO highs.
As $LYFT and $UBER are viewed as a duopoly and depending on Uber's valuation at IPO, I think Lyft is well positioned for some upside in the coming trading days to weeks. Now if you're a fundamental driven investor/trader, I'm well aware of the nasty looking financials but what's new about it in this current market environment? We already have more than 80% of the IPOs coming in as zombies (no EPS) and this is not much of a surprise...If the markets want to transact on only sales multiples and disregard EPS, well that is what the markets want. As a student of the markets and long time observer, it's always more wise to respect the demands of the markets and disregard one's bias as this is the nature of trading/investing.
Anyways, the way I view this trading idea here in Lyft is from the perspective of the current technological environment combined with investors' fear of missing out (FOMO) on a recognized brand. If you analyze Goldman Sachs' latest hiring trends you'll noticed that they have been hiring quite a bit of "technology" investment bankers. This is very telling of macro trends because right now the technology has already bled into every vertical and it seems to be one of the top performing sectors. The point in me explaining this is to elaborate to you what I'm seeing in the markets. In the prior generations I believe most securities were heavily valued based on financial fundamentals and that still remains somewhat true today; however, I would also add that investors these days are also valuing securities heavily on technology. The weight in valuing companies on technology can be so heavy that they are disregarding the financials. In this case, I perceive Lyft being part of that scenario.
Lyft being a well recognized brand and only recently IPOed still has a run to the upside to make. I believe the initial decline to the downside from the near 90s were bought by the first wave of FOMOs and that a second wave will come in to drive this security higher. Given Lyft's relatively lowered price and capturing the minds/greed of the broader public investors I think the current setup looks attractive for a fixed risk/reward trade. Consider a trade here (educational purposes only) anticipate some chop as the market's pricing mechanism will come into play.
Most obvious buy in my cryptocareer! Ripple heading to the sun.Forget the moon, forget Bitcoin, forget Litecoin, Ripple is so heavily undervalued and might prepare for a trip to the sun.
The risk/reward on this asset is off the charts!
Fundamental
Where to even begin?
While Bitcoin has been getting all the attention last year or so, Ripple has been working in relative silence.
There has been a decent amount of good news, like the American Express partnership . But nothing yet to really start the engine.
That bit of news may have come today with the announcment from Nikkei . 37 banks is trailing Ripple, but the important part is that they will without a doubt use XRP.
The use of XRP with Ripple has been an uncertain element for many. Personally I never worried to much about it, but it's a legit concern.
"Eventually, the banks aim to send money by using Ripple's virtual currency, known as XRP, cutting costs an estimated 60% compared with conventional methods." Quote from article, and the reason why I never worried to much ;)
On December 7 we also got the 55million escrow. Which is known for some time but not totally priced in yet I believe.
So what else? There is lots to speculate about with Ripple.
The two main theories is Amazon & Uber partnership and Coinbase addition.
Both theories have some ground to them, and it makes sense. Ripples subreddit is the place to get more on it!
Nothing guaranteed but I think Ripple is a real good buy without those speculations so that's just icing on the cake!
Although, for Ripple to gain that extraordinary target I have set on chart within the timeframe, I would think atleast one of those theories has to come through.
Technical
So I am looking at that last run which provided an incredible 7411% return! If history where to repeat itself we could hit 14.84 USD! Though, I'll be out before that.
I am in on Ripple since last idea , where I bought with BTC hodlings (ohwell) with a price around 0.21 USD.
Ripple is a hard hodl for me. I aint selling until we reach atleast my target area, which is between 4.5 USD & 10 USD.
I'll probably sell out in portion if I get in that situation, but determining specific exit points now is useless for me as I usually go after fib levels.
But what I can see right now is that we have broken out of this long sideways wedge, and that tells me it's time to FOMO if your not already in!! :)