Get started

UBS

UBS (UBSG): Too Big to Fail?Remember this analysis from over four months ago? We didn't place a limit order at that time (which is why it's greyed out), but if you followed our setup during the livestream back then, congratulations! The chart reacted beautifully at the desired level, just as we anticipated. In my opinion, this is a great-looking chart, showing a strong reaction at a key level. I'm now looking for some long plays on UBS to gain some exposure to the Swiss market. UBS is a relatively safe stock, which is a good thing to have during phases of uncertainty. The worst-case scenario would be a banking crash, but we believe UBS is still too big to fail. As long as it maintains this status, we like it. I'll send out a limit order once I find a good setup. For now, I wouldn't recommend any FOMO into this stock, as it could be a dead cat bounce, but we'll closely monitor it for you.
SIX:UBSGLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Eurozone banks now caught the coldAs I mentioned before, the contagion will spread like wildfire because the banking system are so intertwined. We now see Deutsche Bank potentially get caught in the onslaught. Their share tanked by approximately 15% last Friday. After Credit Suisse got obliterated and UBS come to pick up the remains with assistance from SNB ($100 Billion Swiss Franc), their share price now trade below $1. Liquidity injection did nothing to help Credit Suisse. I see this bailout as helping the top 10% to rescue their money and let the rest die. It is always the case. Silicon Valley Bank just gap down and declining more, Signature Bank not showing signs of recovery at all and the regulators/leaders of US still say everything is okay. One thing to bare in mind is that, all the country's leaders have a fiduciary duty to not cause public panic, even though they have a gun to their head. So, what ever you read right now in the mass media by Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Bank CEOs and other Central Bank chairperson, is deemed untrustworthy. As mentioned before, the next sector that might get hit will be real estate, in particular commercial real estate. White collar layoffs on-going + high inflation + high cost of borrowing + tightening lending requirement + high delinquency in rental/mortgage payments + work from home/hybrid preference = commercial real estate crash. If this crash happens, Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities will come crashing down too, which will bring down the Big Banks. There will be flight to safety. Gold and silver will continue to rise, no doubt about that. US Stock market will like rally short term as Eurozone and Switzerland is on shaky grounds. US Dollar may see a short term bullishness as sentiment on Euro bloc is hitting the headlines. Massive riots in France due to Macro increasing retirement age, will also be priced-in and act as catalyst. APAC region could potentially see great alternative to store value and protect capital. APAC markets, as I always said, is more conservative and resilient. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy
2
USD/CHF - Swiss franc climbs higher, SNB meeting eyedThe Swiss franc is showing some strength on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9238, down 0.58%. The turmoil which has roiled the financial markets over the past week has eased today. European stock markets are steady, and shares of UBS and Credit Suisse are both higher. The extraordinary measures taken on the weekend, namely, the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS and the coordinated move by six major central banks to boost liquidity appear to have had a calming effect on jittery investors. These moves may have achieved the critical goal of containing the contagion in the banking system and avoiding a full-scale financial crisis. The bank crisis has shocked investors, as Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland, has toppled like a deck of cards, with its share price plunging to below one Swiss franc. The consolidated Swiss banking sector has lost a key player in a matter of days, and the stellar reputation of the Swiss banking system has been dealt a huge blow. One analyst went as far as stating that the demise of Credit Suisse has turned Switzerland into a "financial banana republic". The volatility in the foreign exchange markets has paled in comparison to the turmoil in the equity and commodity markets. Still, the Swiss franc has lost ground against the US dollar and the euro since last week, when Credit Suisse collapsed. This points to the Swissie losing some of its attraction as a safe-haven asset. In the midst of the bank crisis, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds a policy meeting on Thursday. The markets have priced at 50/50 the odds of a 25 or 50 basis point increase. Like the ECB, SNB policymakers face a dilemma of whether to remain aggressive in the fight against inflation or to ease up due to concerns over the turmoil in the Swiss banking sector. The ECB opted for the 50-bp move and we'll have to wait and see if the SNB follows suit. USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9304 and 0.9382 0.9226 and 0.9110 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD - euro extends rally, market turmoil easesThe euro has put together a 3-day rally and is up again on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0756, up 0.30%. Let's start with some good news. European stock markets have settled down and are in positive territory. The euro took a bath last Wednesday and plunged 1.47% as Credit Suisse shares tumbled, but the currency has battled back and recovered these losses. The emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS and the joint announcement by six major central banks to boost liquidity have provided some reassurance to the markets that the banking system is not in danger of collapse. That's not to say that this nasty bank crisis is behind us. Investors are still trying to come to terms with the lightning collapse of three US banks and Credit Suisse, the second-largest bank in Switzerland, all in just 11 days. Another US bank, First Republic, received an emergency injection of $30 billion from some major US banks, but this may not prove to be enough, as depositors are estimated to have removed $89 billion and the bank's shares are in freefall. In light of the bank crisis, central banks will have to weigh their moves carefully and re-evaluate rate policy. The ECB didn't flinch and delivered a 50-basis point move as promised. Had the ECB decided not to go ahead with the 50-bp hike, it risked losing credibility. As well, the ECB's primary focus remains containing inflation. With eurozone inflation running at an 8.5% clip, the ECB needed another oversize rate hike. Could the financial crisis turn out to be a blessing in disguise? Perhaps, according to ECB President Lagarde. On Monday, Lagarde told European lawmakers that market turmoil could dampen demand and "might actually do part of the work that would otherwise be done by monetary policy and interest rate hikes". Lagarde reiterated that more rate hikes were needed to curb inflation, but didn't make any commitments as to the pace of rate hikes, which makes sense, given that the current crisis is not over. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0778. Next is 1.0890 There is support at 1.0647 and 1.0535
by OANDA
UBS to bail out Credit SuisseIn a historic deal that shocked the financial world, UBS Group AG announced on Sunday that it has agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.24 billion USD), creating a banking behemoth that would rival some of the largest global players. The deal was brokered by the Swiss authorities, who intervened to prevent a collapse of Credit Suisse amid a crisis of confidence that has threatened to spread across global markets. What led to the deal? Credit Suisse had been struggling for years with legal troubles, regulatory fines, strategic missteps, and poor performance. In 2022, it recorded its worst loss since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. But its woes escalated last week after it revealed "material weakness" in its bookkeeping and faced massive losses from its exposure to two failed American banks: Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were among several US regional banks that collapsed earlier this month after they were unable to meet margin calls from their lenders amid a spike in interest rates and a slump in bond prices. The banks had invested heavily in risky assets such as Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), which are bundles of loans to companies with low credit ratings. Credit Suisse was one of the main underwriters and investors of CLOs, and it suffered huge losses when the value of these assets plummeted. According to some estimates, Credit Suisse could face up to $10 billion in losses from its CLO exposure. The news triggered panic among investors, customers, and depositors, who rushed to withdraw their money from Credit Suisse. The bank's shares plunged 25% last week, wiping out more than half of its market value. Its bonds also fell sharply, raising its borrowing costs. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stepped in on Wednesday to provide an emergency loan of $54 billion (50 billion euros) to Credit Suisse, hoping to stabilize the situation. But this proved insufficient as confidence continued to erode. The SNB then contacted UBS, which is Switzerland's largest bank and one of Credit Suisse's main rivals, and urged it to consider a takeover bid for Credit Suisse. The SNB also coordinated with other central banks around the world, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), to inject liquidity into the banking system and calm market fears. After days of frantic negotiations involving regulators from Switzerland, the US, and the UK, UBS agreed on Sunday morning to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion francs, which is about 60% less than what Credit Suisse was worth before the crisis erupted. How will the deal work? The deal will be structured as an all-stock transaction, meaning that UBS will exchange its own shares for those of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse shareholders will receive one UBS share for every 22.5 shares they own in Credit Suisse. This implies a price of 8 francs per share for Credit Suisse, which is far below its closing price of 13 francs on Friday. The deal will not require approval from shareholders or antitrust authorities because it has been authorized by the Swiss government under an emergency law that allows it to override normal procedures in order to protect financial stability and national interests. The Swiss government will also provide guarantees of up to 9 billion francs ($9.7 billion) to cover potential losses from some of Credit Suisse's most problematic assets, such as CLOs and litigation cases. However, these guarantees will only kick in if UBS's losses exceed 5 billion francs ($5.4 billion). UBS said that it expects to complete the deal by June 2023 to integrate Credit Suisse's businesses into its own operations over time, achieve annual cost savings of about 4 billion francs ($4.3 billion) by combining forces with Credit Suisse, and maintain a strong capital position throughout the process. How does it relate to forex trading and the stock market? Those who prefer forex trading might find the acquisition important as it will prevent further market turmoil in global banking, however, it is difficult to predict with certainty which currency pairs will be most affected by this news. There are some potential ways in which the currency markets could react to this development. For example, the Swiss franc (CHF) could be affected if the merger leads to increased consolidation in the Swiss banking sector, which could impact the stability of the Swiss financial system. In such a scenario, investors might become more risk-averse and shift their assets to other currency pairs, such as the US dollar (USD) or the euro (EUR). Another factor that could impact currency pairs is the strength of the Swiss economy relative to other economies. If the merger leads to increased efficiency and competitiveness in the Swiss banking sector, this could benefit the Swiss economy and potentially strengthen CHF against other currencies. As for stock trading and indices trading, the ripple effect on economic mechanics is far too complex to forecast, and other factors such as inflation and economic calendar events will overwrite any UBS influences on stocks and indices. For now, one thing is clear. If the domino-style tumbling of banks is a precursor for recession, as many believe, large investors won’t be turning to the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency this time, assuming current market sentiment holds.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Exness_Official
CS Credit Suisse Group to $0.27 on Monday??UBS Group AG has made an offer to acquire Credit Suisse for as much as $1 billion. The Swiss government is planning to change the country's laws to bypass the need for a shareholder vote on the deal, as they seek to restore confidence in the banking sector following Credit Suisse's outflow of 10 billion Swiss francs in just one week. The proposed agreement, which is an all-share deal between Switzerland's two largest banks, is expected to be signed as early as Sunday evening. The deal is priced at a fraction of Credit Suisse's closing price on Friday. According to insiders, the offer was made on Sunday morning at a price of 0.25 Swiss francs ($0.27) per share, payable in UBS stock. On Friday, Credit Suisse's shares closed at $2.01 Swiss francs. I think we are about to see more bidders and the price go up from $0.27. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:CSShort
by TopgOptions
3
UBS Group AG (UBSG.vx)We can found a technical figure Triangle in the Swiss company UBS Group AG (UBSG.vx) on a daily chart. UBS Group AG is a Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. UBS client services are known for their strict bank–client confidentiality and culture of banking secrecy. The Triangle has broken through the support line on 09/09/2021. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 14.595 CHF. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 15.485 CHF if you enter this position. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SIX:UBSGShort
by legacyFXofficial
1
Trump attacks Fed, UBS expects pound to riseUnfortunate week for oil buyers. Following the news about a possible increase in supply and weak demand growth in the future, as well as Morgan Stanley's forecasts about a 25-30% reduction in market prices. Another disappointing news. The agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO), published that oil demand peaks within the next 10 years. Recall that this week Saudi Aramco gave the oil market 20 years. According to IEA analysts, the current growth in oil demand will last for 5 years maximum, and then we will see a significant slowdown. We are talking about long-term forecasts, so now oil may well ignore these estimates. But in general, the future of the oil market looks rather unsightly. As for yesterday’s oil growth, it was largely due to verbal interventions by the OPEC Secretary-General, who tried to smooth out the effect of the above-mentioned news. In particular, he said that in 2020 growth in oil demand could beat forecasts, oil supply from non-OPEC producers could decline sharply soon. Despite the growth of oil yesterday, taking into account current prices in the market, we continue to recommend selling the asset. Also, despite the strengthening over the last couple of weeks, we recommend selling the dollar. The further fate of the Fed rates is still in limbo, but the further decline will be a strong hit to the dollar. In this light, Trump's next attack on the Fed was quite remarkable. The US President accused the Central Bank and Powell of slowing down the economic development in the States. The Fed, unlike other leading central banks, did not want to divert rates into the negative zone, which harmed the US economy. Such information at a time of the impeachment procedure, Trump gives reasons for the sale of the dollar. Moreover, you can sell it against euro, pound or Japanese yen. Also, the Canadian dollar in the region of 1.33 seems to be a good candidate for buying USDCAD (we are talking about the sales of this pair). The British pound is another excellent candidate for purchases against the dollar. We have already noted that in conditions of an almost complete absence of risks of a “no-deal” exit, the current prices for the pound seem to us underestimated by at least 500-1000 points. According to the updated forecasts from UBS, our estimates are still very conservative. Since bank analysts see the pound paired with the dollar in the region of 1.54 over the next three years. Since we are interested in the time horizon in months, not years, the achievement of 1.40 with GBPUSD will completely satisfy us. Returning to the situation with the dollar, we note that yesterday's data on consumer inflation in the US as turned out to be rather neutral and did not change the existing situation in the foreign exchange market. Today we are waiting for GDP data in the Eurozone and Germany, as well as for retail sales in the UK. Besides, the attention of the markets will be riveted to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the US Congress.
Long
by Trade24Fx
SWISS FRANC CURRENCY INDEX (SXY) DAILY TIMEFRAME SHORTThe Swiss Franc currency index is currently moving in a series of lower highs and lower lows, characteristic of a downtrend. The price is clearly moving downwards with brief correctional pauses as shown by the ascending wedges and bear flag chart patterns. I am targeting a short trade toward the 97.8 area, which will be my profit taking zone. This area represents a potential buy zone as it is the bottom of the correctional structure. I certainly hope history repeats itself with this trade and the 90% rule sticks out!!!. A break above 100 might change my bias a bit, but currently i am targeting the 07.8 price level for profit-taking.
TVC:SXYShort
by munyaelliott
Golden cross incoming on CEFL?!There is what appears to be a converging golden cross on day candles, the Stochastic RSI and Stochastic are both primed to shoot upward on day candles, The RSI is smack in the middle so its also in a perfect place for incoming growth. the only thing that is questionable is the MACd. The 0.38 per share monthly makes this a keeper anyway, but I think a long call on this is a good move forward especially with all the incoming news for interest hikes etc. This is just personal thoughts, not investment advice. Give me your thoughts, interested to see community sentiment on this one.
CLong
by d4wn0ff473
0x/Bitcoin (ZRXBTC) Broker Burns up?0x/Bitcoin (ZRXBTC) 4-Hour Bars, Normal Scaling, 06/24/18, Written 12:35 a.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield Hi trader friends, we have 0x Protocol under an Andrews 0.618 support line & the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, with only 3 of 5 waves completed on the downside, so there should be a bit more to come. After the expected low, larger bounce is due, preferably from a bit lower at 0.000008585 area, where I show a green arrow turning up. But, this broker/exchange technology is not catching fire lately, while Bianance has been killing it (see past recos). ELLIOTT WAVES: CORRECTION or IMPULSE?: This looks more like a giant correction down. Here’s why: Angular momentum down on Wave (A) is steeper than the angular momentum down on Wave (C), at least thus far. Even Wave 3 of (A) is steeper than Wave 3 of Wave (C). Therefore, Wave (C) is LESS likely to be an Impulse wave. Instead, we are likely in a Wave (C) correction. CYCLES: Red cycle in trough phase, with actual trough on 06/20/18. Blue cycle is still heading down. This often means a big bounce is due, but maybe not a new uptrend yet. Price is more important than time. Red cycle tops again on 08/08/19, so you'll likely want to be out of any longs before that. Blue cycle bottoms in early October, 2018, along with some other large cycles in BTC. DIVERGENCE: Both RSI(9) and MACD have bullish divergence suggesting the low is getting near. TARGET UP: Upside bounce target is the prior Wave IV area, likely launch from the next Andrews Pitchfork and FIBO intersect line, both shown by the green arrows. BOTTOM LINE: Possible short-term tradeable low coming. There should be another short sale opportunity, at the prior Wave 4 horizontal black line area, after the expected big bounce. Have a great week! DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Cheers! Michael Mansfield CIO
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
UBS - Completion of a leading diagonal?Since July 2016, price has been rallying in a 5-wave structure to the recent high at 18.30 in July 2017 in a diagonal structure. RSI has formed a divergence as well, giving us another confluence of a potential retracement lower from here. We are expecting price to correct to the downside towards 15.13 or even lower towards 14.38 area in the short term before another move higher. *Disclaimer - ensure that you have analysed the fundamental of this company and do your own due diligence before trading.
NYSE:UBSShort
by KarYong