Shipping prices increasing, Oil going lower, cancel each other?By the graph included, we can see that Asian container freight rate prices are skyrocketing. This is due to disruption & stock.
This is good sign for the overall economy, means not in recession.
With news that Trump is being called the next prez will #oil trend lower?
Maybe one can offset the other?
LSE:INDU SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX AMEX:USO
UCO
USO / UCO a play on barrel oil shock LONGUCO is shown here as a one month trend - It is sitting on the rising support tendline about
2% below the recent high. Oil prices contribute to inflation. Anyone in the USA is aware of
gasoline prices at the pump. Geopolitics plays into price. At present, US Navy warships are
consuming refined oil and heading to the Middle East. Iran and Russia are sanctioned and must
sell oil on the global market ( primarily India and China ) at artificially low prices. If Iran
retaliates against Isreal, its oil infrastructure will be bombed back into the Stone Age in less
than a day or two by the US. Global oil prices will spike nearly instantly from spot oil to
futures. US Domestic producers will benefit ; the insane net cash flow to them will
dramatically increase quickly. Russia will sell more oil to make up for Iran being taken off
supply but will not capitalize so much given the sanctions. The price of oil will likely go
north of $100 USD / barrel and potentially higher. Iran could go nuclear and any residual
oil infrastructure would be turned into a quagmire of scrap metal in another day of work for
the US Navy bombers and the fighter jets that escort them into strategic missions.
Defense contractor stocks will spike as well. This could be a black swan event.
My trading dictates that I add to my positions and average in until price goes against my idea.
I am increasing my positions in gold and silver along with ETFs inversing the indices banks
and financial stocks until the dust is settled. This includes any plays on VIX. I will also look
at individual domestic oil stocks as well as junior precious metal miners.
OIl setting up for a bounce here, trade or continuation?We've been out of the #Oil trade for some time now.
It since went about 10% higher, no big deal.
Daily analysis:
Broke its recent uptrend.
RSI oversold - Usually gets a bounce at these levels.
It has been trading in between mid 60's & Low 90's.
Intraday looks like it is setting up for a bounce.
--------------------------------
Weekly Analysis:
You'd figure with tension rising that #OIL would be at a 100, at least.
Daily it broke the trend but it's best to wait until Friday to see if it's going back to the lower part of the trend or bouncing.
Historically, RSI doesn't hang around the 50 area much, shown by the yellow arrow.
USOUSD Spot Oil Jumps on Geopolitical Escalation LONGSpot Oil on 30-minute chart had a slow rise in the past 24 hours followed by a pause and then a
jump on the Israeli retaliation strikes into Iran. Middle East oil shipping in the Red Sea and
Persian Gulf are at risk and shipping insurance for ongoing shipments is likely to experience
heavy rate increases if shipping does occur. Houthi rebels may resume proxy attacks on the
behalf of Iran. New sanctions contemplated against Iran may include increased action on oil
exports and the Israelis could target oil infrastructure. Overall, spot oil now has a bullish
bias. I see good cause to increase oil based positions at this time. My target for spot oil
based on VWAP lines currently on the chart is 87.5 about 4% upside without leveraging.
The volume indicator shows increased buying volumes relative to selling. The PVT shows a quick
burst of trend momentum while the TTM indictor triggered and has an upgoing histogram.
IMPP- a volatile penny energy stock LONGIMPP stands to gain market cap if the barrel price of oil moves on the global markets under
the pressure of geopolitics in the Middle East. While it is a domestic producer and not involved
in transoceanic oil tanker transport, the price of oil is a global dynamic in real time. As a small
cap, when the oil price moves and IMPP's fixed expenses remain static, margins can increase
in a curvilinear fashion. IMPP once traded in the 40 share price range. I believe it is well
situated to jump if oil prices escalate in the near term. For another similar penny energy stock
albeit not domestic take a look at INDO. Targets are on the chart 15%, 30%, 30%, 25% partial
closures at each averaging 10-15% overall
USOUSD rising for LONGUSOUSD after its minor correction on the 15-minute chart is resuming its
bullish trend with an engulfing green bar and confirmatory indicators
including an uptick in the postive directional index and on the BB a
move from a bounce near to the basis band toward the upper bands.
I will go long on leveraged forex.
$DXY pumping as are Yields and OilPretty good calls on the following:
(see our profile for more info)
The US #Dollar maintains its upward trend.
The 10yr #yield is also looking pretty decent.
The 30 Yr bottomed before the others and has been leading #interestrates.
#OIL broke downtrend and has been looking better.
Oil to bounce to test $94I think oil will now bounce to test $94. I'm short term bullish; medium term bearish.
Oil took a hard dive "low liquidity run" through the previous swing-low which was taken out.
The next swing-low is $77-ish.
But we are hitting 20 week MA and prior old highs at the same time. Thus the slow stochastic weekly losing embedded (was above 80 now falling below 80) means a run to the 20week MA was likely.
The next few days will show whether or not this confluence of old highs and 20week is strong enough to arrest oil's fall towad the liquidity pool (swing low) of $77.
My trade has been to open longs using credit-puts below that $77 level where there should be much stronger resistance than the confluence already mentioned.
Counter thesis is that the price cheese-knife's toward the $77 liq pool which could accelerate a sell-off.
20 Week is the "hold the line" for the trade.
UCO a crude oil ETF LONGUCO popped in April and then dropped into a consolidation in May and June where
it set up a base shown by the POC line on the volume profile. Once over the POC
on July 6th on the daily chart coinciding with a golden cross on the HMA 56/210
combination the bull trend began. The dual time frame RS lines in the 60s suggest
more to come. I am trading UCO and similar oil-based instruments including USOUSD
or forex in the near term until I see signals of a topping that are not yet evident.
OILU an ETF for OIL - Leveraged and LongOILU is a risky high volatility ETF on oil exploration and production. Where there are risk
and volatility there can also be plentiful profits. On the 4H chart,OILU can be seen breaking
up through long-term anchored VWAP bands in a trend that began in mid-May. Price is
now approaching the mean VWAP lines. The POC line validates those VWAP lines coming in
at nearly an identical price level. On the MACD, negative amplitudes have gradually decreased
in a fashion consistent with bullish divergence. The RSI indicator shows the MTF RSIs to be
in mid-range suitable for taking an entry without evidence of oversold or overbought
parameters. Fundamentally, a variety of factors including
OPEC the re-emergence of the Chinese economy, Russia's war fear of a recession causing a
decrease in demand for oil all have contributed to a mixed picture. The chart is suggesting
a long trade to me and so I will take up the suggestion. I will set a stop loss at the recent
pivot low of $32 while targeting the highest VWAP band at $47. I will raise the stop loss
to break-even when price hits $38 while respecting the ATR and volatility. I see this as
a safe trade with a potential upside of about 33%
USO Up or Down OIL ECOMONY in fluxAs certain countries want to exchange oil for money with anything but USD such as Chinese Yen
or even a cryptocurrency to be launched by US neutrals or adversaries cooperating, USO on
this chart rose dramatically over the past month and is now sitting at resistance as shown by
the LuxAlgo Supply and Demand Zone indicator. The RSI shows possible bearish divergence
perhaps heralding a reversal of the uptrend. I see this as a good place to take a short sell
entry and most buyers have taken their profits. Fundamentally there are enough competing
geopolitical and macroeconomic factors to deprive USO of the energy to push through resistance.
See also the link below from US federal forecasters.
I see this as a short trade at a limit price below the resistance zone and stop loss above it.
Profit targets can be the VWAP, the midline between the supply and demand zones as a 50%
Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend and finally one standard deviation below the anchored VWAP
making for a safe three-tiered take-profit procedure to optimize profit and diminish risk also
adjusting the stop loss at intervals using ATR as a guide. 40% at each of the first two targets
and the remainder at the last. Put options 20-30 DTE at the a strike above the resistance zone
for a good delta are another consideration.
WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58.When it comes to oil, it was supposed to do the super moon back to $120 thing when Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party finally stopped welding people in their homes and going full blown technocratic social credit while humans tried to "fight" Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID-19), but for one reason or another, the pump never got off the ground.
Probably because a whole lot more than the 87,468 people Xi and his CCP claim to have died from the disease are actually dead, and so demand is just legit in the toilet and industry can't get going, because China has big time problems stemming from its 23-year-long persecution of Falun Gong, which includes the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting (they've done it to Uyghurs too), and the Party's outright fetish for human rights, freedom of speech, and freedom of belief abuses.
Being bullish on "China" is a totally separate thing from being bullish on "the Chinese Communist Party." One is extremely wise, while the other is totally moronic.
Totalitarian regimes never last a long time, and the Party has already had more than a century. Clinging to Marxism is like clinging to the Titanic when it's 5/6ths of the way under the water.
When it comes to WTI oil, both the fundamentals and the price action are strange. This is a commodity that you don't want to be very bearish on after it traded at literally $0 during 2020's western COVID pseudopandemic theatre hysterics. Yet, while oil also isn't liking to go down, it isn't liking to go up.
In October, I had a pretty accurate call that WTI would plink the $70 range.
WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict
And a pretty good call in September too when everyone was convinced oil could never trade low again
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls
But the ultimate endgame of the calls, $50, has not manifested. It seems as if perhaps these prices won't manifest, and it's almost time for the uppy.
There's some problems with this narrative, however.
The key factor is that the United States and its vassal states (including Canada) are the world's largest producers of oil, by far. Russia and OPEC combined are really the only challengers, but the US has the advantage in that you need the USD to buy oil, and so ultimately the Biden Administration is the legit market maker.
The problem with the bull thesis is that the SPR was filled at $29.70 over the years while Biden and friends sold half of it off in the $80s and $90s. This inherently tells you not that they're trying to destroy themselves, but just that they're short on crude oil.
The news in December, right after oil wicked the $70 mark, was that the Biden Admin was buying it all back .
But then in January, the tune changed as the US Government said "The bids didn't come in low enough, so we haven't bought yet." Media says they want to buy around $70.
And this brings us to our very strange price action in WTI.
Crude has a gap at $85-86 and combines with a Dec. 1 pivot around $83, while recent trading activity was a triple top of successive lows at $82~.
Then we dumped to $72, but did not make a new low, and have since bounced back to $80.
All of this combines to give us no reason to believe that a hybrid short-killer/breakout trader-crusher play is not about to be made around the $88 level.
This gives us 10% to the upside, which is really quite nice to work with when WTI trades 1,000 barrel lots and you also have access to the leveraged ETFs like UCO and SCO.
But the bottom is not in. Look at the weekly candles.
Oil just hasn't retested the long-term trendline from late 2021, and in combination with the US Government having been unwilling to refill the SPR at $75+, should give you all the reason in the world to be extra cautious with going long as more than a scalp.
Under $60 **combining** with media chatter that Democrats are refilling the SPR is where you want to go long. And if you do it right, you'll get the bottom for what will quickly turn into $180.
2023 is going to be a wild year starting in July. If humanity makes it to 2024, it will be even more of a ride.
TL;DR: Long to $88 --> Short to $55, and start treating Bloomberg's Javier Blass like Jim Cramer. Trade against the narrative. Be patient. It's too early for the next moon, yet $120 in '22 was no top.
This should combine with natural gas being on the cusp of pumping:
Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming
Be careful, and trade safe.
OIL going to make BIG move soon1/2
We sold most longs in #OIL, trailing position left
Been going long $UCO & shorting puts @ lows
We want back in, why?
There's something brewing in middle east area
More on this later
Chart is too much, explain in next post
$USO $CVX $XOM $MPC $SUN
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2/2
Short term #oil is on a slight uptrend (white)
It also more recently trades in channel (yellow)
Longer term it's HUGE Head & Shoulder (top)
If there is #war is larger conflict in middle east $UCO & oil will rally hard
However, if there's nothing, it'll crater, temporarily
Crude Oil, Crude, CL, USO, UCOI had been waiting for months for CL to test the green shaded area which coincides to an untested weekly level of demand dating back to Dec/21. When we wicked down on Nov 28 and popped up I thought "damn, I missed the move" but instead of chasing I decided to wait (learning patience). A few days later we got the move I had been long waiting for and we have seen a successful backtest of that support level. Both weekly and daily RSI are showing a bull divergence, Weekly BBands are stretched, TSI has turned up on the daily, we had a demark buy last month and we are due for a technical bounce back to the 200 ema around $88. What has me particularly intrigued is some untested supply levels above between 98-108. Anything can happen of course but this could be setting up to be a nice opportunity.
CL or UCO Oil Idea Oil going up. this is only the beginning. prepare yourselves. SPR drains stop after the November mid term elections. not a lot left in it anyways. production cuts, combined with a global energy crunch from a Green transition coming too early before viable technology. Great reset agenda. confluence of bullish ideas. DXY not cooling off until 118. Oil was only down so far to price in the recession. so many factors. 12-18 months of bull market coming for all commodities, still imo. not financial advice
Oil Super-Cycle Scenario! (Contrarian Schematic)Simply put,
OPEC (Iran x Saudi) x War (Russia-Ukraine, Incl Sanctions) x Tightening (FED x Inflation)
Scenario entails a run up with equities... Sounds familiar? (2007-2008)
Banks/Institutions will be forced to close their short positions at a loss...
Probability: Least Likely
Key notes:
-Physical disruptions of supply
-Stagnating world production
Targets: 150/180
End Date: H2 '22, prob Q4 / H1 '23
USOIL - Doji on daily and Fib retrace levelsI am looking for a possible doji on daily TF and retrace back to fib level 106.5.
All the war news has been priced in and there is also China and Taiwan.
Inventory report was bullish -2 MBOE vs + 2 MBOE.
Seasonality - We are heading into weak months march and April for oil.
Good Luck!