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From Financial Markets to Pope Francis' Funeral From Easter to April 28, 2025, financial markets have been in a period of great turbulence, influenced by economic, geopolitical and social events. The Forex market, in particular, has reacted to central bank decisions, commodity fluctuations, global trade tensions and the major event of Pope Francis' funeral, which has seen the participation of world leaders and talks that could have a lasting impact on international relations. This article offers an in-depth analysis of the key events of these weeks. 1. Monetary Policies and Forex Markets The decisions of major central banks have dominated the movements of currency markets. The Federal Reserve, in an attempt to balance recession and inflation risks, has decided to keep interest rates unchanged. This approach has caused a temporary weakness in the US dollar, prompting many traders to move towards more stable currencies such as the euro and the pound. In Europe, the European Central Bank took a more hawkish stance, hinting at a possible tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation. This move boosted the euro, which posted significant gains against major currencies. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, continued its ultra-accommodative policy, causing the yen to weaken further. Traders then showed a preference for the dollar and the euro over the Japanese currency. 2. Commodity Prices and Impact on Related Currencies The commodity market saw significant movements. Oil prices fell, influenced by a rise in inventories in the United States and weak global demand. This trend penalized currencies that are highly correlated to commodities, such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Australian dollar (AUD). On the other hand, gold continued to gradually increase, with investors choosing it as a safe haven in a context of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold’s strength had an indirect impact on currencies tied to the precious metal. 3. Geopolitics and Conversations During Pope Francis’ Funeral The funeral of Pope Francis, held on April 26, 2025 in Rome, was a crucial moment for global diplomacy. The participation of world leaders allowed for significant discussions: Meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky: During the ceremony, a possible peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine was discussed. The opening to a ceasefire represents a real possibility for stability in the region. Statement by Vladimir Putin: The Russian president expressed Russia’s willingness to negotiate without preconditions, a signal that could positively influence global tensions. Focus on dialogue and peace: The funeral itself emphasized the importance of building bridges between nations, a central message of Pope Francis’ pontificate. These talks, if followed up with concrete actions, could have long-term effects not only on geopolitical relations, but also on investor confidence and, consequently, on financial markets. 4. Economic Data and Influence on Forex Markets Economic data released during this period played a central role in the movements of the Forex market: United States: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slowdown, suggesting that inflationary pressure could ease. This fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in the coming months. Eurozone: Inflation exceeded expectations, strengthening the euro and increasing the likelihood that the ECB will adopt further monetary tightening measures. Fluctuations in economic data caused greater volatility in the Forex market, offering opportunities and risks for traders. 5. Implications for the Future Looking ahead, investors should carefully monitor geopolitical developments stemming from Pope Francis’ funeral talks, central bank decisions, and key economic data. The combination of these factors could continue to generate volatility in currency markets, making FX a dynamic and complex space for the coming months.
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by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD - PoVThe EUR/USD exchange rate is influenced by several economic and political factors, suggesting that the euro may continue to weaken in the coming weeks. On one side, the United States is implementing expansive fiscal policies that could strengthen the dollar, such as economic stimulus and increased public spending. These factors, along with potential protectionist measures like tariffs on Europe, could further weaken the euro by reducing the competitiveness of European exports. Additionally, the **Federal Reserve's** monetary policy, which has raised interest rates to combat inflation, makes the dollar more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the U.S. currency. The United States' energy independence, due to increased domestic production of gas and oil, has also reduced its reliance on imports, which further strengthens the dollar compared to the euro. On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing a series of economic and political challenges that are putting pressure on the single currency. High inflation is eroding purchasing power across the Eurozone, and despite the European Central Bank (ECB) raising interest rates to combat it, economic growth remains slow. This divergence from the United States, where growth has been more dynamic, amplifies the euro's weakness. Moreover, the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, worsened by the war in Ukraine and reduced gas supplies from Russia, has increased costs and slowed the competitiveness of European businesses. In this context, political uncertainties in some Eurozone countries and the ECB’s less aggressive economic management compared to the Fed further contribute to the euro's weakness. Therefore, the strengthening of the dollar, driven by U.S. policies and growing energy independence, and the structural weakness of the Eurozone, are likely to continue pushing the EUR/USD lower in the coming weeks.
by Generazione_X