SQQQ leveraged inverse QQQ LongSQQQ on the 15 minute chart has trended down into a reversal at the end of the last trading
session. A snapshot of the 3 minute chart inlaid shows a reversal about 14:45 EDT 75 minutes
before market close. I took a long trade of shares and call options striking $10.00 for June 14th
at that point. I am expecting a 5% quick return on the shares and far more on the options.
The relative volatility indictor is helpful to further pinpoint the reversal for best entry.
(red to green) The set of Hull Moving Averages ( 14 and 35) also serves to signal "death" and
"golden" crosses which serve to further aid trade entry accuracy. The relative volume indicator
( of veryfid) also helps in that regard. It has extreme volume spikes in black. OF particular
interest, the last 15 minutes of the trading week has a volume spike of buying in SQQQ.
This comforts me to know that other traders saw what I saw. I am fortunate that I saw it
about 45 minutes before them and got a better price. This demonstrates the value of indicators
and knowing how to apply and interpret them. Trading is not as complicated as the pundits
and the fee for services and trading room coaches will have you to believe to make you
financially dependent on their "guidance and assistance".
UDOW
$DJI warnings signs but not all is darkGood Morning!!!
Let's dissect a few things.
The DJ:DJI is showing warning signs on the Weekly Chart:
Money has been leaving.
Harder to see on a daily so showing on weekly.
RSI is also weak.
Daily
The DOW is trading under shorter term moving avgs.
The RSI is at an important juncture, 50.
$ flow almost under 0.
-----------------------
There are some positives to the DJ:DJI :
There is an Inverse head & shoulder pattern. Although this pattern is better @ calling lows. Of course, if it holds the 38.5k Support Level.
37.5k & 37k would be the next support areas before the retest of the MAJOR SUPPORT level, which is the old all time highs.
Sell in May go away?
Still bullish but weak spot for the average.
RSI & Money Flow comparison to other time periodsMarkets may remain irrational for an extended period of time. This can happen even when data conflicts.
For the moment on the daily TVC:DJI :
RSI is weakening.
$ Flow is lower, but it is stable.
Buys slightly outpace the sells since Mid January.
(Only weekly is shown here. Pls see our profile for more information)
---------------------------------------------
Things change a bit when seen on weekly data. Daily they seem weak but weekly there's 2 things of importance.
Weekly TVC:DJI RECENT indicators show that RSI & $ flow seem OKAY.
Let's compare them to years past.
Compared to 2021:
RSI is lower
$ FLOW same
Compared to 2017 + 2018:
Both indicators are MUCH LOWER!
(makes sense as it takes a lot more $ to move things around as indices and prices are higher)
Showing 2 previous examples, blue boxes) as no market is identical.
But, seeing the past we may get enlightenment to PREPARE for any outcome that may ensue.
AMEX:SDOW AMEX:UDOW
SDOW a Dow Shorting ETF Long from an Intermediate Term BottomSDOW has leveled off at a near-term bottom after a downtrend as confirmed by bullish
divergence on the RSI and MACD while the price went sideways in consolidation.
Volatility has contracted as have trading volumes. I see this as a buying
opportunity with a stop loss of 20.5 below the low pivot in consolidation and the first
target at 22 underneath a standard retracement with the final target at 25 in the area of
the early November pivot high. A call option set at a strike of $22 expiring in 4-7 months
is a supplement to the idea. I expect that interest rate fades or any lessening of geopolitical
tensions may affect things throughout the trade and perhaps force trade management along the
way. Overall, I have an expectation of 18% for the shares and about 100% for the call option.
$DJI leading stocks BUT at a major resistance level atmOn the flip side...
DJ:DJI is pumping today & leading.
The industrial is at a major resistance level & pushing through, for the moment at least.
AMEX:DIA hasn't been able to trade above this area for almost 2 years!
How will it handle it this time?
Weekly RSI hasn't been much higher than current level since mid 2021.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI at do or die!!!This is where we see how serious the decline in DJ:DJI is.
AMEX:DIA has not been this oversold since March of this year.
2nd Pic:
Right side = 15minute chart
The lower part shows the Relative Strength = RSI
At the moment is shows some positive divergence, higher lows as index falls.
This is the battle ground!!!!!!!
Keep in mind that the index has taken a ton of damage technically which is NOT good longer term. At least for now.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI broke Head & shoulder & long term trend yesterdayDJ:DJI broke the head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. However, the volume was not heavy.
AMEX:DIA also broke the up trend from the bottom in 2022
SERIOUS DAMAGE has been done the last 30 days.
We can get a bounce here BUT being Friday, not sure.
---
The previous MONTHLY BEARISH moving avg crossover on the DJ:DJI happened in June 2008. We all know that year.
The RSI in 2008 showed clear Negative Divergence & it formed a Doji (cross) at the top.
2008 bear > 14k - 7 = 50%
CV bear market > 30k - 18K = 40%
2022 bear market > 36 - 28 = 22%
---
Using AMEX:DIA as it resembles DJ:DJI pretty decently
IF 2021 was the top, looking more & more likely as:
RSI did not move strongly
2021 showing Negative Divergence
AND the recent rally was SUPER WEAK!
(wanted to see a stronger relative strength)
But rates can now be dropped & they can come and save the day. Very likely scenario in 2024.
$DJI also forming symmetrical triangleOriginally worked on this 4hours ago
DJ:DJI is also at the 2022/2023 trendline.
It's also formed a Symmetrical Triangle - see previous TVC:NDQ post .
Daily, the RSI broke the downtrend but it completely fizzled.
Weekly, the RSI is holding above the 50 area BUT it is testing it.
IF it breaks this 50 area we will likely have more downside.
Monthly, STILL Above the short term averages since crossing bullish in 2010.
#DJI #Stocks
$DJI looking good but OMINOUS longer term pattern emergesGood Morning!
Since the call on DJ:DJI , it has been up & adding some more today.
Within 2 weeks AMEX:DIA is going to break down OR it will continue it's longer term up trend.
Bulls like this current action.
HOWEVER, there is an ominous pattern forming on longer term charts.
A Rising Wedge pattern tends to be BEARISH.
Not coincidental that the peak is very close to the all time highs on $DJI.
(Not shown here, pls see profile for more info)
Monthly AMEX:DIA has been trending inside it PERFECTLY!
It's going 2b an interesting end of year
Coincidentally, the pattern resolves in December.
$DJI reached 1k+ point drop & 1st target levelGood Morning!
TVC:DJI reached the level that we called for, the 1k point drop we spoke about.
Now what?
Coincidentally, the index is slight oversold.
#FED can only fight #inflation, it cannot nor will it tame it.
If it insists it will hurt #economy. But, they've been saying they know this!
Since they began to raise we made it clear, they're going to break something, but what?
$DJI & $NDX very important levels (TSLA trade = fire)The TVC:DJI trade we did ( NASDAQ:TSLA was great) was nice. In & out.
AMEX:UDOW gave back all gains
TVC:NDQ holding better, NASDAQ:TQQQ bit higher (risk reward was good but not for holding longer term)
Point is, NOT RISKING, not convinced downside's over.
AMEX:DIA almost oversold & very close to a VERY IMPORTANT AREA.
Will revisit risk soon, once there.
This is also an important area for $QQQ.
ATM both weaker, could be mid day reversal. We'll see.
Stocks still struggling - $SPX copying late 2021?The risk in #stocks is still not to the upside.
Took a trade before this rally, but that's it, a trade, already done too.
Lower low today, still expect to be positive for the day, but until we get some sort of reversal, the risk is still to downside. TVC:DJI AMEX:UDOW
NASDAQ:NDX is trying to find a bottom but here's not best place. Very light support.
CBOE:SPX looks weakest of the 3.
We could very well be doing what happened in late 2021. One last hurrah & then kaput.
$DJI has been weak, can it keep going lower?We almost called top on the #indices.
DJ:DJI AMEX:DIA
Daily
Few days ago stated that it could drop 1k points.
Weekly
Yellow areas are the best risk reward entries, for a bounce or if we continue higher.
Monthly
Choppy action is 100% normal since 2018 (Only after CV crash it went straight up). This was not the norm prior to 2018. Usually had few months of up or down patterns.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI is at do or die hereDAILY
TVC:DJI is really struggling to hold the green moving avg. (see profile for more info)
#Dowjones RSI is holding the 50 area - Yellow Box.
NOW, pay close attention
IF they break we're looking at likely trendline retest, white line.
That's where the possible 1k point drop idea comes from, mentioned yesterday.
Weekly support, Red Mov Avg, shows another view for the possible, roughly, 1k point drop for the Dow.
#stocks AMEX:DIA AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI looking good & likely maintains the momentumTVC:DJI has had one weekly CLOSE above 34.4k since April 2022 & another on Friday. of last week.
Daily, the issue is a close above 34.6k.
-
Notice the heavy volume on the down days?
All, except one day has been a solid bottom.
-
The Ascending Triangle forming likely means that we have MORE upside on the Dow Component.
AMEX:DIA AMEX:UDOW #stocks AMEX:SDOW
SDOW a triple leveraged ETF shorts the DOWSDOW is shown here on a 30 minute chart current rising above a parallel descending channel
which is within a longer trend of a downward-facing megaphone pattern where it is currently
situated near the top of the megaphone. I have drawn the two trendlines onto the chart
and added an RSI indicator. My plan is to take a short trade on SDOW by looking for an entry
on the 5 minute time frame where the HA candles are red and the RSI has dropped below
50. I will set the stop loss above the resistance trendline while targeting the support
trendline at the low of the pattern.
UDOW a triple leveraged ETF of the DOW indexUDOW is shown here on the 30-minute chart rising over the past month in an ascending
parallel channel. The chart shows the price currently situated near to the bottom of
the channel which is the support trendline drawn onto the chart with the resistance
trendline as well. My trading plan is I will take a long trade of 50 shares with a stop loss
immediately below the support trendline. I see a targets as $ 62 and $ 65 making for
a very favorable reward for the risk taken. For the entry, I will use the 5- minute chart
and enter when the HA candles are green and the RSI is above 50. I realize that the DOW
has less volatility than the S & P or NASDAQ but with that is less overall risk of reversals
and pullbacks. I tend to take higher-risk trades but see this as having a balancing effect
in my overall portfolio.
$DJI back at this area, now what? DJ:DJI has had issues in this area many times before
Getting overbought, been here a few times in 2023
1 Jan - Feb RSI Neg divergence took entire month to work out
2 RSI was already rolling over when it peaked
3 RSI is again in this area & the 4Hr chart doesn't look like the RSI is weakening, interesting
See volume where rally started?
$NDX posts impressive rally! $DJI pumps but OIL & BANKS holdDidn't get the bottom but got most of this intraday rally.
Went green & we covered all exposure done today.
Very nice day!
Could rally more but WE ARE DONE.
Going to park in a few to hang out with the girls.
$TQQQ $UDOW $COIN#UDOW #TQQQ #COIN #stocks #trading
Things look ugly for $DJI but there's ray of light$DJI has seen a ton of SELL volume & in reality the environment doesn't seem conducive of any positives. Bu there are some.
Pluses:
Doji - Needs more confirmation tomorrow.
Oversold on daily & support is 32.5k
Major long term downtrend is around 31.1k
Inverse Head & Shoulder can still pan out as long as #DJI doesn't break below the last barrier.
Technically, it can go to MAJOR support in the 30k area. Yes, it's ugly but that is some hope for the bulls.
The other indices don't look as good.
$DJI bouncing off Support levelEarly this open
RSI looks ok & is oversold. Not buy much but it's been a good amount of selling
Took advantage of this dib & went on buying spree. As we've been saying for some time, IN & OUT, scalps & short term trades.
We've also been SELLING PUTS to help reduce risk by bringing premium in. If the premium subsides a good amount we cover.
Not looking for home runs.
We should have an okay day today but a lot of damage has been done to #stocks.
$MSFT $TSLA $ZS $UDOW $TQQQ $RUN
Beginning to nibble on #GOLD miners $BTG $KGC $FNV doing well today