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UGAZ

Commercials are heavy long NGI was wrong on my last idea, NG went on and dropped lower. Trend remains down until we see a close above 2.33 then 2.48. Commercials are heavy long at levels not seen since 2016. Seasonality is bullish from now to Nov-Dec. we just need to see a sustainable rally to bolster the idea of a bottom for the year. **If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group
NYMEX:NG1!
by D707
Natural Gas Down Trend - Scalp with DGAZNatural gas is setting up a a short term trend down before draw down season begins. I am currently owning shares of DGAZ at the price point of $107 and I will be waiting for $120-$130 before Thursday to sell out of my position. Currently, Dgaz is sitting at ~$112. Natural gas is trending down until draw down season fully comes into effect. I expect the price of NG to increase during the overnight/ morning futures before this Thursday when the bullish report comes out. After the report, NG should go up 2-8%, then continue the downtrend shortly after depending on how bullish the report is given the recent cold weather. Natural gas is waiting for draw down season / a new cold front before it will decide to move up with another big move. Keep your eyes on UGAZ if natural gas gets down below the $2.50 per bpu range before large storage deficits start to take place.
NYMEX:NG1!
by RayleWoodInvestments
Natural Gas - Go LongIf we compare past economic trends from our past in terms of our natural gas price, there are obviously many factors that contribute to the price of Natural Gas as well as the timings of the swings. Most often, natural gas will see price increases more often in the winter if we see unexpected changes in winter weather making it a seasonal bet. In this chart I have compared the federal funds rate, the SPX 500, and the price of natural gas. These factors, from historical perspective, attribute to substantial correlation especially when we are near a market top. The more instability has shown to greatly change the price of natural gas and we can see shortly after markets reach substantial highs, natural gas has dropped to substantially low prices, then, shortly after, they correct in a substantial move. Politics play a huge factors in the price as well with political candidates speaking about banning fracking, most likely, this will be a positive for the natural gas price. Given a ban to fracking, basic economics states that when supply decreases, while demand remains constant, we will see price increases to the area of supply deficiency. Global warming can be looked at as a negative for natural gas prices as well, but the world is not heating fast enough to reduce demand for natural gas. In fact, we are seeing a rise in natural gas power plants as an alternative energy source given its low price compared to other fuel sources. Any increased demand will need to be met by an increased supply, but if natural gas prices do no rise we may see energy companies enter bankruptcy. It is my expectation that natural gas will slowly become an increasingly monopolized industry, this will be due to the factors I have listed above, but mostly because smaller companies will lose profitability potential and be forced to sell their assets to larger companies that are more sustainable. a monopolized industry will raise natural gas prices overall, but we will maintain smaller price swings heading into the future. The reason for this is because we will see a huge possibility that the United States will nationalize the natural gas industry similar to the way we treat utility companies who provide us energy. In the short term, going long natural gas should reap great reward as our economic expansion wanes especially as we are entering another winter. Please post a comment below if you would like to discuss this idea further. I do understand there are many other driving factors to the price of natural gas. Cheers, AC
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by RayleWoodInvestments
3
NATGASUSD LongA technical pattern which has had a virtually 100% success rate is in effect now: look for positive and negative divergence on the CCI, coupled with a PPO-9EMA crossover and a break of support or resistance. There has not been a crossover on the PPO yet but it is flattening out nonetheless. Right now I highly suggest scaling into UGAZ and setting a stop below the recent lows. There isn't much to say on the graph because it is fairly self-explanatory from a technical perspective.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by BigMouse777