Signs of Reversal for UGAZNatural Gas ETF's such as UGAZ are looking more bullish. It broke through a very strong channel that it has been consistently following for a couple weeks now. Look for a slight correction before entering.
UGAZ
EASY Head and Shoulders on Natural Gas. perfect head and shoulders with a tiny shoulder. he needs to work out both arms
scared money dont make money
Maybe It's Too Early To Chase High In SeptemberHere are reasons to short natural gas at this level:
1. Both MACD and RSI have reached overbrought level. 1 Year MACD reached historical high since Oct 2004.
2. Reached 2.7-2.73 resistance level
3. Mild temperature will not boost the short term demand.
UGAZ trend/50 MA break outUGAZ is looking pretty bullish to me from a technical standpoint. I can't really speak fundamentally for it, as I am not normally a natural gas trader ... but technically, I think it looks bullish in the short term.
It has been in a solid down trend since March, but the down trend resistance was broken and, not only that, but the 50 MA was also broken. The volume has also been pretty high during these break-outs, which I see as confirming them. If it can punch thru the next resistance around 20.16, I would expect this to run up and retest the next zone in the 26.9 - 27.9 area (grey zone).
Just my opinion!
Long NAtGAS IdeaI went long Yesterday with NatGas using BOIL. Trned line break, moving average cross, MACD divergence. All looks good. It's been tough to trade lately. Hopefully we get follow through. UGAZ is another option.
UGAZ Bullish Breakout is coming The flag is created with the triangle. So i think it will be a bullish move. What you guys think ?
The power of An Ascending Triangle with NG1!The pattern is completed on a decisive breakthrough the upper flat line of the Ascending triangle.
#ung #ugaz
A Natural Gas IdeaI still don't think that NG bottoms until the end of December. Just basing it off the cycles analysis idea I have going...but NG is tricky. This is what I think may be going on right now on a short term cycle. If this count is correct, then the wave 1 is longer than the wave 3 which of course would mean that wave 5 must be smaller than 3. Soooo, I extended the fib measurement of wave 3 down (assuming we ended this little up move, and what do you know, it fits. Lets see. I do not have a position yet but if NG drops to that blue box then a nice short term long position will suffice.
Natty accumulation - drop, then rock n roll$ung $ugaz $dgaz $boil $gaz $unl $kold Make no mistake- ol natty will be quite bullish but watch for another big flush drop into this descending formation - very likely another drop before the bull can break out. Short term could be bearish.. wait patiently I may consider some UNG puts until we can break out of this.
NATGASUSD - Natural Gas Nearing Top of Long Term Channel Getting ready to buy inverse natural gas, $DGAZ.
Natural gas is nearing the long term channel which it hasn't broken several times.
Natural gas has touched the top of this channel every - 6.90 - 7.00% as you can see in the D1 graph.
First touch - -6.99%, 994 bars (62 d 15 h)
Second touch -6.90%, 860 bars (54 d 00 h)
Wait for strong breakout confirmation of the channel, I would wait for a strong confirmation to avoid a false breakout, then buy when it rebounds off the previous channel resistance (possibly breaking 2.34 - 2.35 area or greater).
(More likely scenario) Wait for strong rebound and go long term inverse gas / short.
Natural Gas Daily About To Break Out Of Falling WedgeThe $NG daily has been doing battle with the 50dsma for 8 months. The falling wedge is about to explode to the upside.
Natural Gas Needs a Gap UpThe natural gas daily has been unsuccessfully trying to beat the 50dsma for 5 months now. A gap up may be needed to beat the 50 and the falling wedge.
UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemyIt looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ .
Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day .
The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing.
Two weeks ago UGAZ had a record volume.
And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas.
The numbers on 2019 July 23
The open interest is 1.310.300 .
It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods.
The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish , and what is more interesting is the long contract number.
The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years:
2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222.
2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064.
Look what started in 2018 September:
Natty almost doubled...
This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last Septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract...
The numbers on 2019 July 30
Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000)
Large specs long: +23.776
Large specs short: +32.138
Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish. I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly.
But.........!!!!
Long contracts: 668.966.
THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory.
I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them.
The numbers on 2019 Aug 6
Open interest 1.375.410 (+32.750)
Large specs long: +118 ( Almost the same)
Large specs short: +414 (Almost the same)
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 1218 from 166.649 to 167.867 .
Long contracts: 668.966, increased by 14.638.
THIS IS NEW ALL TIME HIGH. Again.
They are preparing for a big rally.
NG no signs of strength yetNG seems to be working a bear flag, I'm still looking for a tradeable bottom, until then I'll be staying on the sidelines until market finds a bottom and show (SOS) sign of strength. 1.9 seems likely at this point, if thats the case NG needs to bottom this month as bullish seasonality starts early Sep
Trumps Tweets? NAH! Charts. Volatility in the works!Here you can see how the seesaw may unfold. Geometry! Cheers
-Coach Reeves
Short $DGAZHello.
I haven't posted since forever, had a lack of motivation but guess whos back!
DGAZ is continuing with the same pattern than it was having on last decline push. 3 tops and immediately huge decline. Currently we're on 2 tops but the third time could be different. This could be last short potential for DGAZ for a little while as we don't really know which direction it will go after third top hit.
Very good opportunity once again.
IMPORTANT:
RISK & Reward ratio : 1:3 (6% - 18%)
Looking for a significant bottom in NGlittle bit lower is the most probable scenario but I’m looking for a bottom in the 2.00-2.1 region and a big rally into end of year
** Just an idea, NOT a forecast
NG bottomed? The strong rally today suggests that NG low of the year might be in, bullish divergence in play, biggest hurdle would be a close above last swing high at 2.488
* seasonally NG bottoms in the last week of July, so looks good timing wise
** Just an idea NOT a forecast
NATGASUSD LongNatural gas has *potentially* breached through a massive resistance level that marks the falling wedge pattern's upper limit. I say potentially because we need more follow through first as confirmation because the price might sink back within the pattern and keep grinding lower until the real break occurs. On the daily charts, we definitely have the positive divergences in play which means the trend will change. Price, like a compressed coiled spring, will jump out to the upside. On that note, I will be watching for developments on the hourly charts: specifically any formation of a bull flag pattern which could be the catalyst to propel us higher. The same divergences were in play on the hourly charts. As of now I have exited all my natural gas positions but once this rally cools off, then we could see a move higher.
For this trade, we will be using UGAZ. Watch for a back-test of the wedge or a bull flag pattern forming and breaking out on the 1H time frame. Both will act as confirmation for this long trade.
5 reasons to be bullish on Natural Gaz / $UGAZ1. Natural gaz is very weather dependent and seasonal. In the last 20 years, natural gaz went up 14 out of 20 times between Aug and Nov. The exceptions were (2000, 2005,2008, 2010, 2011 and 2015).
2. In the last 20 years, natural gaz was above $2.25 98% (eye ball) of the time. As you can see on the chart, $2.25 is a clear floor.
3. Adjusted for inflation for 20 yrs at 1.5% inflation rate, this floor should be in the $3.00 range in 2019.
4. Average price in the last 20 yrs has been around $4.50 ish. There is lots of room above!
5. With the FED's dovishness, the dollar will start softening soon. It may creep up a few more days but it will come down. Commodity will then have upward price pressure.
The price is falling at the moment. I would like to see it stabilize first but this looks like a pretty good odds trade to execute some time in August, below $2.25. The question is, ...How low can it go? My advice, keep an eye on it...
The above are only my opinions and are not a trading advice. This is just something to get you thinking... an idea, THAT'S ALL! I am not responsible nor liable for any financial losses you may incur following my ideas. Also know that leveraged ETFs such as UGAZ carry additional risks. READ the prospectus! Do your own analysis and due diligence PLEASE!
Good luck to all!
