LONDON UJ REVERSAL ATRPrice has stalled at a valuable structure and qualified for our REVERSAL playbook setup on MOMENTUM
Lets see if we can capitalize on a quick correction for our second London trade.
Probability of success: 50%
Uj
ASIA UJ 618 LIMIT ATRLast call for UJ shorts going once, going twice...
Playbook Setup: 618 Sell Limit Active
Probability of Success: 50%
Last entry for Asia session and it lines up with our bias from prior playbook setups (although we try to treat each and every opportunity independent of other ones).
KEY POINTS
- Maximum risk exposure met(3R) for ASIA so we will set SL and TP orders and check back in during London.
- Be aware as a trader and risk manager that this is a game of probabilities and there is a very real probability that when we check back in during London, we may be down 3R if all trades go to shiiiiish... In this instance, the worst-case scenario is accepted (psychologically) so therefore we have entered the last position of the night and will be clocking out as soon as this idea is posted
Our job here is done, the rest is on the market. May the odds be ever in your favor
ASIA UJ BOBBI ON REJECTIONUSDJPY looks to be lining up one of our favorite playbook setups (BOBBI) by faking the break up before potentially swinging lower for a short term reversal. If the odds are in our favor we should at least bag us twice our risk, and maybe not much more, as the big picture suggest presence of a bullish trend
Probability of success 50%
ASIA UJ BUTTERFLY LIMIT ATRHarmonic pattern recognized and taken as a limit sell order on USDJPY, with SL of 13 pips for a minimum 1:2 RR
Probability of success: 50%
LONDON UJ ABCD/EXT LIMIT ATRComing in for a London session we see UJ has continued its bullish run and while its not the intention to continually find setups against the trend, we must trade what we see.
ABCD/EXT sell limit using our ATR for stop loss to capitalize on what could be a quick 1:2RR corrective wave
Probability of success 75%
LONDON UJ LONG 618 ON IB IMOMENTUMUsing half of our profit from last trade, we will go for another 2R on this last setup of London. Price has yet made another playbook setup and we must heed by our trading plan and take it.
We have taken far more entries during ASIA/LONDON than we anticipated and although they were all profitable, taking these many entries is NOT what we recommend. Psychology studies suggest that the human mind can typically only make 1-2 rational emotional decisions per day and as we all know when risking capital, we are also risking our psychological capital which opens up risk of trading emotionally and going on TILT, resulting in giving our gains back to the market, or even ending up in a worse position than when we started!
The only reason we are taking this trade is because it is going to be a 'set it and forget it' type of setup, using 1R which is technically "house money" at this point.
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: 25%
LONDON UJ LONG 618 LIMIT ATRAfter dropping more than 100 pips in such a short time, USDJPY is destined to fall to its death right?.. well, not exactly..
HIGHER TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE BREAK OF A DOWNTREND WITH PRICE FALLING SHARPLY TO THE 618 RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF THE HUGE IMPULSE MOVE MADE LAST WEEK.
I KNOW, I KNOW.. BASED ON LAST SETUP, WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY FOR THE WEEK. HOWEVER, USDJPY HAS MADE AN OFFER WE JUST CANNOT REFUSE AND BECAUSE OF THAT, HAVE DECIDED TO ACT QUICKLY AND TAKE ONE OF OUR PLAYBOOK SETUPS USING OUR PROPRIETARY ATR FOR SL PLACEMENT ( in this case 30 PIPS).
Even if we are wrong, our prior gains allow us to spend 1R to be part of this potential opportunity to at least double our risk.
now we wait, and see probability in action, in real time...
PROBABILITY for success: 50%
UJGreat forecast, I put this feeler out hours ago. It was not yet ripe so now it went above and beyond.
UJJust like that we were going to be out, but the US30 trade would have kept us afloat. We stay watching and waiting, close your laptops and enjoy your weekend. Monday is another day and this week if we calculate we should be up roughly 5% which is better than negative and higher than the 3% goal we were aiming for.
UJThis is another idea I am having and I just want to watch because of todays volatility it can bounce both ways before it chooses the direction it wants to go hence I am not entering trades today but will watch from a far.
UJMy SL was hit because I moved it into profit. Yet even if you held, you'd still be up. Today I don't think I am going to trade it is a Friday and it's an interesting day as it is the first Friday of a new month. Also companies have released their year end results many which were under par.
UJMove SL into profit and you should be good. This is a sign that we are still sharp here with UJ (just need to get sharper with GJ). It's alright and it should cover the GJ loss
USDJPYThe TP was hit. Forecast was inline with the market, so we rode the wave. Close your laptop and wait for tomorrow.
UJIf you had seen the momentum then you would have seen that demand was pushing all the way down and the supply followed. There are fundamentals we should be on the look out for therefore I'm moving my SL into profit. I took this trade earlier as a risk but it's working out.
USDJPY 4hour Analysis January 22nd, 2023USDJPY Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: Clearly we are bearish overall and in a healthy trend.
Going into this week we’re looking for the trend to continue bearish. Ideally, we can spot clear rejection from our 131.000 area and enter short.
Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider a bullish scenario we would first need to see a break of 131.000 resistance and form structure above.
USDJPY LONGHi Traders,
Another possibility that Price will push up bullish. Will wait for entry confirmation at 128.6
Entry price: 128.6
Target Price: 133.7
Hit the Boost and Follow me if u agree. Trade Safe!
Thank you.
UJ ShortDepending on the DXY of course, I could see UJ continue to drop possibly to 127 or lower. Use good analysis. it broke/rejected a trendline on the daily. NFA
UJThat is perfectly fine, we just were not following the market and its impulses close enough. We watch, watch, plan and execute
Retracement on UJ Again?USDJPY has significantly dropped over the past 2 months by a follow up retracement on the broken supports. Here again the price ended the week by a strong impulse to the downside leaving the BOS fresh(unmitigated). probabaly price would gap or maybe even get to the imbalace zone depending on the technical and fundamental aspects that be take effect next week.
USDJPY LONG Hi Traders,
Looking at a possibility for price to push upwards. Will wait for price to retest my entry level.
Entry Price: 128.1
Target Price: 132.3
Hit the Boost and Follow if u agree. Trade Safe!
Thank you.
1/9/23 UJ game plan ( NY )Plan:
1) Entry after 8:59am @ retest of 131.83
2) Short entry @break &retest of 131.28
3) Long entry @ break & retest of 132.65
