USDJPY Similar pattern to a year agoIf you look at the USDJPY pattern from last year (there was a rate hike on Dec 13, 2017), a top and then three increasingly lower tops before a strong pullback, it looks very much like this year, 49 weeks later. Supporting this is a mirror fractal (shown in yellow) from the last recovery. If the pattern continues, we could see 105-106 in March 2019. The pattern also fits my CAC40 fractal idea earlier.
The CIBC analysis reported on FXStreet.com supports this view, as do earlier forecasts by ExchangeRates.org.uk , and JPMorgan who predict a bottom at 104 in March 2019 and then a recovery.
The trade is to take advantage of the bounce from the 200-day SMA we hit on Dec 20, and short 111.50 for 105, with a 100 pip stop, which is 6.5:1
