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Ujlong

USD/JPY: Don't sleep on this short opportunity Yesterdays setup was very specific and for good reason. Our specific strategy for this short setup yesterday was designed to be able to resist any "fake outs" or simple upside that came from the pair at the key levels shown in those charts at that time. Yesterday's amount of short sellers who're either close to being margin called or already hav given us the ability to jump in with there stops. Yesterday's failure for price to reject said zones/levels and break, sustain, and close below them, showed both the lack of liquidity, and follow through/ conviction in the market. This can be attributed to a few things, namely;; seasonality. Since then, UJ has pushed up and we can now look for trades in a different setup. It's interesting at the current levels however, making a new higher-high which gives us an opportunity regardless of shorter term 40hr bias. 110 out my upside this week at this point. This is taken into account using options data from Bloomberg. There are a lot of option expiring both in the 110 and 108ish key levels so it's key remember this can go long. I'll place the options data below, USD/JPY 108.00 1.5bn USD 108.10 603m 108.35 626m 108.40 400m 108.45 740m 108.50 810m 108.65 454m 108.70 429m 108.72 419m 108.75 400m 108.90 532m 108.95 1.3bn 108.96 665m 109.00 891m 109.15 995m 109.50 790m 109.75 540m 109.80 480m 110.00 1.4bn
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
5
USDJPY Long - The 30/200 PinchEntry - 108.38 Take Profit - 109.28 - 90 pips Stop Loss - 107.88 - 50 pips Straight away, you'll notice this is not an ideal risk to reward ratio, but I've found the 30/200 pinch to be somewhat reliable in my back-testing. On the 4H chart, price has appeared to have made the turn for an extended reversal. The 200MA (blue line) has been breached and we're seeing lower lows. This tends to draw in counter-trend retail traders, which gives the bigger fish an opportunity to catch shorts. The long wick on the previous candle is an indication to me that more than a few traders jumped on that extension down and were caught off-guard. The price reacted strongly off of my S&R line (light blue), which is drawn on the monthly timeframe. In my experience, when the trend appears to be reversing, and the 30EMA (green line) and 200MA close the gap and "pinch", price jumps against the recent PA. My TP is fairly conservative for the situation and is situated between the moving average lines. SL is below the previous low. I'm not opening a large position, as I'm primarily a trend follower and this is relatively unorthodox for my main style. It's possible the break of the 200MA is too much and JPY pairs tend to pick a direction and march, but I'm willing to take a risk. I'll provide updates or comments if I note anything interesting as this continues. Thank you for looking! -Zedro
Long
by Zedro
3
USD/JPY Price ForecastThe US dollar has fallen significantly during the day on Friday, continuing the down move that we had started on Thursday after Donald Trump announced a tariff on both steel and aluminum. This has put a lot of fear into the market, which of course has people running towards the Japanese yen. I suspect that most of the reaction in this market will be due to noise and news coming out over the course of the weekend. With the United States let been a 25% tariff on steel, the world awaits to see what the Chinese and the Canadians do. If we start to see a bit of a trade war, it will be interesting to see how the Forex markets react. I believe that safety currencies will continue to be bought at that point, and although the US dollar is a safety currency, it plays a secondary role to the Japanese yen in this scenario. As I record this, we are starting to roll over towards the 105 handle again, which I suspect is the trading market telling us that they don’t want to carry positions over the weekend. Because of this, I am flat of this pair but recognize that we will get an impulsive move that we can react to soon. The S&P 500 ended another turbulent week on an upbeat note Friday but major indexes posted their worst week of losses since early February as Trump’s threat to impose import tariffs on steel and aluminum rattled investors. The dollar fell against most currencies, dropping to its lowest in more than two years against the yen, as Trump’s tariffs proposal raised prospects of a damaging trade war. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said any U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum would be“absolutely unacceptable” and vowed to continue to engage with U.S. officials on the issue. The International Monetary Fund also expressed concern, saying the proposed tariffs would likely damage the U.S. economy and those of other nations.
Long
by LegacyVA
USDJPY long for 90 day correction to the upside, Gann theory.One of the time cycles of Gann's theory was the ending of a 270 day cycle for USDJPY and EURUSD. What this means is that there is a higher than normal probability of a 90 day countertrend. This countertrend will end the year. USDJPY should move up consistently from now until at least Dec. 22nd. We also have some extremely bullish signs based on time and price harmonics (not the harmonics and balloon animals all the Gartley-only advocates think). We have thoroughly tested and broken above some key internal harmonics, we also closed on Friday above a MASSIVE confluence of time, price and huge intesection of the some important Gann angles, specifically the .618 angle. It's actually a kind of exciting area right here. And that is officially the nerdiest thing I've ever said in a long time.
Long
by itsjustanalysis
1
USDJPY - Trendline breakI know many of you are watching UJ when trading gold... There's a very important pattern developing on the UJ UJ chart. After a 7 months consolidation ( downtrend in a down channel) we had a character change. Price didn't turn down immediately in a V shaped form as did before. It sticked to the trendline an started to crawl along it. I think the Bank Of Japan started its preparation for the stock bubble pop. When the next recession starts they will need the Yen to be as weak as possible otherwise they will have a serious problem with their export... So the powers will need this pattern to break to the upside and no more tag will be of the lower trendline of the channel. So after the trendline crawling price dropped but as I mentioned in the previous UJ post it doesn't look good to me. That's why I exited the shorts with small profit. 2 days ago we broke out of the flag . Yesterday it seemed to reverse but as of today it seems we are really heading higher and once it breaks from the channel the bounce will be big. I tried to set some target price from the pattern. I know it seems a bit irrealistic now but on the bigger picture it is just the back test of the previous high. The flag is huge. Think. Big moves are not coming when retail expects it. Big moves are coming when the small guys are not in the trade.
Long
by chartwatchers
31