Ujlong
Possible Reversal in Sight for USDJPYLiquidity is all around you.
Price is coming into a strong support area. If the bottom isn't already in, then maybe it taps once more
into the downside target zone before reversing up. There are 3 immediate targets. The first has the highest chance of keeping UJ bearish. If it turns over there at Target 1 after making a new low on M15, then this idea could be scrapped.
But i like my chances for a good bounce here.
UJ Position Trading IdeaI've been following the UJ Buy Trade for several weeks (closed out in profit on one trade, currently in a Position buy trade on this one). Looking for another key entry point for a longer position buy trade on UJ. If you want in, please refer to the second position to the screen right for the parameters. As always, use proper risk management, as the stop loss is 50 pips this time and not the usual 40 pips.
USD/JPY: Don't sleep on this short opportunity Yesterdays setup was very specific and for good reason. Our specific strategy for this short setup yesterday was designed to be able to resist any "fake outs" or simple upside that came from the pair at the key levels shown in those charts at that time. Yesterday's amount of short sellers who're either close to being margin called or already hav given us the ability to jump in with there stops.
Yesterday's failure for price to reject said zones/levels and break, sustain, and close below them, showed both the lack of liquidity, and follow through/ conviction in the market. This can be attributed to a few things, namely;; seasonality. Since then, UJ has pushed up and we can now look for trades in a different setup. It's interesting at the current levels however, making a new higher-high which gives us an opportunity regardless of shorter term 40hr bias. 110 out my upside this week at this point. This is taken into account using options data from Bloomberg. There are a lot of option expiring both in the 110 and 108ish key levels so it's key remember this can go long. I'll place the options data below,
USD/JPY
108.00 1.5bn USD
108.10 603m
108.35 626m
108.40 400m
108.45 740m
108.50 810m
108.65 454m
108.70 429m
108.72 419m
108.75 400m
108.90 532m
108.95 1.3bn
108.96 665m
109.00 891m
109.15 995m
109.50 790m
109.75 540m
109.80 480m
110.00 1.4bn
USDJPY Long - The 30/200 PinchEntry - 108.38
Take Profit - 109.28 - 90 pips
Stop Loss - 107.88 - 50 pips
Straight away, you'll notice this is not an ideal risk to reward ratio, but I've found the 30/200 pinch to be somewhat reliable in my back-testing. On the 4H chart, price has appeared to have made the turn for an extended reversal. The 200MA (blue line) has been breached and we're seeing lower lows. This tends to draw in counter-trend retail traders, which gives the bigger fish an opportunity to catch shorts. The long wick on the previous candle is an indication to me that more than a few traders jumped on that extension down and were caught off-guard. The price reacted strongly off of my S&R line (light blue), which is drawn on the monthly timeframe.
In my experience, when the trend appears to be reversing, and the 30EMA (green line) and 200MA close the gap and "pinch", price jumps against the recent PA. My TP is fairly conservative for the situation and is situated between the moving average lines. SL is below the previous low.
I'm not opening a large position, as I'm primarily a trend follower and this is relatively unorthodox for my main style. It's possible the break of the 200MA is too much and JPY pairs tend to pick a direction and march, but I'm willing to take a risk. I'll provide updates or comments if I note anything interesting as this continues.
Thank you for looking!
-Zedro
USD/JPY Price ForecastThe US dollar has fallen significantly during the day on Friday, continuing the down move that we had started on Thursday after Donald Trump announced a tariff on both steel and aluminum. This has put a lot of fear into the market, which of course has people running towards the Japanese yen.
I suspect that most of the reaction in this market will be due to noise and news coming out over the course of the weekend. With the United States let been a 25% tariff on steel, the world awaits to see what the Chinese and the Canadians do. If we start to see a bit of a trade war, it will be interesting to see how the Forex markets react. I believe that safety currencies will continue to be bought at that point, and although the US dollar is a safety currency, it plays a secondary role to the Japanese yen in this scenario. As I record this, we are starting to roll over towards the 105 handle again, which I suspect is the trading market telling us that they don’t want to carry positions over the weekend. Because of this, I am flat of this pair but recognize that we will get an impulsive move that we can react to soon.
The S&P 500 ended another turbulent week on an upbeat note Friday but major indexes posted their worst week of losses since early February as Trump’s threat to impose import tariffs on steel and aluminum rattled investors. The dollar fell against most currencies, dropping to its lowest in more than two years against the yen, as Trump’s tariffs proposal raised prospects of a damaging trade war.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said any U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum would be“absolutely unacceptable” and vowed to continue to engage with U.S. officials on the issue.
The International Monetary Fund also expressed concern, saying the proposed tariffs would likely damage the U.S. economy and those of other nations.
Short term long UJAfter such a big drop we need a correction before continuation of our down trend. Therefor I believe we gonna see that correction now.
I'll hold my position with a really tight SL for now.
First target is the S zone and 38.2 fib if we see a break I'll focus on our second target at 61.8 fib.
USDJPY LongHey Guys, We are keeping our bias bullish for UJ over the next few weeks and have identified a potential area where this chart may find a higher low structure level at 113.200. This is based on a support and resistance level which has been tested on both sides and a previous higher high point. We have a target of 114.778 and a stop loss at 112.900 giving us a very good risk reward of 5.26/1.
USDJPY long for 90 day correction to the upside, Gann theory.One of the time cycles of Gann's theory was the ending of a 270 day cycle for USDJPY and EURUSD. What this means is that there is a higher than normal probability of a 90 day countertrend. This countertrend will end the year.
USDJPY should move up consistently from now until at least Dec. 22nd.
We also have some extremely bullish signs based on time and price harmonics (not the harmonics and balloon animals all the Gartley-only advocates think). We have thoroughly tested and broken above some key internal harmonics, we also closed on Friday above a MASSIVE confluence of time, price and huge intesection of the some important Gann angles, specifically the .618 angle.
It's actually a kind of exciting area right here. And that is officially the nerdiest thing I've ever said in a long time.
USDJPY - Trendline breakI know many of you are watching UJ when trading gold... There's a very important pattern developing on the UJ UJ chart.
After a 7 months consolidation ( downtrend in a down channel) we had a character change. Price didn't turn down immediately in a V shaped form as did before. It sticked to the trendline an started to crawl along it. I think the Bank Of Japan started its preparation for the stock bubble pop. When the next recession starts they will need the Yen to be as weak as possible otherwise they will have a serious problem with their export...
So the powers will need this pattern to break to the upside and no more tag will be of the lower trendline of the channel.
So after the trendline crawling price dropped but as I mentioned in the previous UJ post it doesn't look good to me. That's why I exited the shorts with small profit. 2 days ago we broke out of the flag . Yesterday it seemed to reverse but as of today it seems we are really heading higher and once it breaks from the channel the bounce will be big. I tried to set some target price from the pattern. I know it seems a bit irrealistic now but on the bigger picture it is just the back test of the previous high.
The flag is huge.
Think. Big moves are not coming when retail expects it. Big moves are coming when the small guys are not in the trade.