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$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPAUD -UK will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Asia’s economy will grow by 4.6% in 2024 and by 4.4% in 2025. Downward price pressures from China could impact countries with similar export structures and lead to trade tensions. The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) plans to auction £59.2 billion in conventional long-term government bonds in the fiscal year 2024-2025. According to the DMO, the net issuance of government bonds for this fiscal year is projected to reach £296.9 billion. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has indicated that the previous government did not provide all necessary information, and if it had, their spring budget forecast would have been significantly different. OBR forecasts suggest that the consumer price index (CPI) will reach 2.6% in 2025 (compared to the 1.5% forecast in March), 2.3% in 2026 (March forecast 1.6%), 2.1% in 2027 (March forecast 1.9%), 2.1% in 2028 (March forecast 2.0%), and 2.0% in 2029. The forecasts also project GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025 (March forecast 1.9%), 1.8% in 2026 (March forecast 2.0%), 1.5% in 2027 (March forecast 1.8%), 1.5% in 2028 (March forecast 1.7%), and 1.6% in 2029. Reeves, the UK Chancellor, stated that there will be more plans aimed at boosting economic growth. Yesterday, the UK sold £2.25 billion in bonds maturing in 2053, with a bid-to-cover ratio (B/C) of 3.15, up from the previous 3.08. The average yield on these bonds was 4.831%, higher than the previous yield of 4.735%.
Short
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - UK is on the verge of an important economic decisioThe GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within zone with appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones The UK budget is set to be announced today, Wednesday, October 30, 2024. Analysts at Commerzbank predict that if the budget combines austerity measures with long-term investment optimism, it could positively impact the pound and bolster the UK’s long-term growth potential. The government faces the challenge of stimulating investment to address years of underfunding in the public sector. The difficulty lies in the fact that the UK has been spending beyond its income in recent years, which has complicated its financial situation. Meanwhile, prices in UK stores have fallen at their fastest rate in over three years. However, the budget announcement by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could help inflation rebound. The annual store price index has decreased to 0.8%, marking the weakest level since August 2021. Food prices have risen by 1.9%, and clothing prices have also increased for the first time since January. Data shows that consumer inflation fell to 1.9% in September. On the other hand, in the U.S., Professor Jeremy Siegel from the Wharton School believes the Federal Reserve may choose to hold rates steady next week if the October non-farm payroll (NFP) report proves very strong. Siegel notes that if the labor market report is robust, many FOMC members may conclude that it’s time to pause. He also predicts that the rate-cutting cycle will include three to four rate reductions, but long-term rates are likely to remain high. In August, Siegel advocated for an emergency 75 basis-point rate cut by the Fed.
Long
by Ali_PSND
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7% source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%. The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels. Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001. Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023. In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
If Sep CPI slows, GBPUSD could fall further The UK's September Claimant Count Change rose to 27.9K, surpassing the market expectation of 20.2K. The UK unemployment rate in August dropped to 4.0%, the lowest level since last April. Attention now turns to the UK's September CPI results, with the market expecting a decrease to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%. If the CPI slows down, it could lead to increased expectations of further rate cuts by the BoE, putting pressure on the pound. GBPUSD showed sluggish consolidation between 1.3030-1.3100 for eight consecutive trading days. The price briefly tested the support at 1.3050, awaiting further price triggers for a rebound. If GBPUSD fails to hold the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3250, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBP Ready to React to UK Inflation Dip? UK inflation is forecast to dip below the key 2.0% threshold this week, according to economists monitoring the country’s inflation. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.     Morgan Stanley analysts anticipate a larger-than-expected decline, driven by falling airfares and hotel prices—key components of services inflation. This metric is under close scrutiny by the Bank of England ahead of its next rate decision on November 7. GBP/USD is approaching a potential critical support level at the September low of 1.3000, a price point that could test the series of lower highs established since April. This area also served as resistance back in July. On the upside, the next resistance is eyed at 1.3250—a level where we saw the pair drop off a cliff at the beginning of October and faced resistance in august.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4 For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower. A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPJPY H4 - Short SignalGBPJPY H4 Potential shorts in the firing line here on GBPJPY. This 188.100 price is trading very close to this 188 whole number, we could start to see some resistance, rejections and sell-off from this trading zone. We have previously sold off a huge 3000 points over the last few weeks, one of the biggest corrections we have seen in a VERY LONG time. It will be interesting to see how we perform during market open in 15 minutes for the UK session. Based on the swing high price dated 01/08/2024 to recent low price dated 05/08/2024, we are also trading at a key 618 corrective level.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
UK Housing Market Lifts GBP/USD Amid Social UnrestGBPUSD – technical overview Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500. R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium S1 1.2673 – 6 August low – Medium S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong GBPUSD – fundamental overview The Pound was still struggling on Wednesday from all the social unrest in the UK. However, we did see some demand on the back of UK house prices rising the most since January. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from US initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
England's Economic Crossroads and Banking ResilienceEngland’s economy is facing a complex array of challenges, driven by domestic social unrest, geopolitical tensions, and evolving labor dynamics. Recent riots, sparked by both marginalized Muslim communities and extreme right-wing groups, highlight deep-seated socio-economic issues. These tensions have been exacerbated by international events, such as the October 7, 2023, incident in Israel, which reverberated through England's Muslim community. In addition to these social and geopolitical pressures, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. Inflation, unemployment, and a housing crisis have strained the economy, while regional conflicts, such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, pose further risks to energy prices, trade, and security. Amidst this backdrop, the Bank of England’s recent declaration that top UK lenders can be dismantled without taxpayer bailouts is a significant milestone. This statement reflects the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis in enhancing the resilience of the UK banking system through stricter capital requirements and resolvability assessments. However, emerging risks such as climate change, cyberattacks, and global financial interconnectedness require continuous vigilance and robust regulation. Inspiration and Challenge: As traders and investors, understanding the interplay between social dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial stability is crucial. England’s current economic state challenges us to think beyond traditional metrics and consider the broader implications of regional conflicts and social unrest on financial markets. The resilience of the UK banking system offers a glimmer of stability, but it also calls for ongoing scrutiny of emerging risks. Engage with this analysis to deepen your strategic insights and navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.
FTSE:UKXShort
by signalmastermind
$GBP - What shall we do now?$GBP - What shall we do now? GBP - Since we hit below 1.14 - 1.10 it's really been a one way for this pair and it could continue...However, we have options! 1 Emergency rate hike 2 Intervention 3 IMF 4 Fiscal spending 5 Swap Lines Now these are the options technically speaking we filled gap around 1.09 this morning, I expected 1.06 on table during open we hit lows of 1.03... Now, if we can hold the levels of these levels and perhaps go above 1.09 then no worries. However, if we carry on with these moves then things will get very interesting and keep an eye on the Gilt & FTSE! Now it all looks very dismal when it comes towards headlines but actually there are coming amazing investment opportunities the prices we are getting and of course if you're in USA, what a great time for you to visit! For Candle stick traders - dragon fly! Keep alert of what happens next, this week we have a lot speakers out of CB's and most importantly trade your plan! Best, TJ
by Trade_Journal
24
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country. The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
GBP/USD to Track 100-MA Slope? GBP/USD to Track 100-MA Slope? On Wednesday, GBP/USD traders will focus on the UK's July Manufacturing and Services PMI, expected to show slight increases. Although, more significant events will come from the U.S., including the annualized Q2 2024 GDP and the PCE Price Index. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge likely cooled in June, suggesting its efforts to curb prices are working, potentially paving the way for rate cuts in September. Markets expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate next week but anticipate a cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. GBP/USD extends the decline from the monthly high (1.3045), pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back from overbought territory. It found support after briefly easing below 1.29 and may track the positive slope in the 100-period SMA.
by BlackBull_Markets
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024) source: Office for National Statistics The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024, the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%. The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April. At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%). On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels. The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally The British pound surged above $1.276 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in three weeks, as voters across the United Kingdon headed to the polls for parliamentary elections. The Labour Party, currently leading in the polls, appears poised to unseat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party. Some projections suggest Labour could secure a majority, marking their first general election victory since 2005. But, perhaps the more interesting trade is in the euro in reaction to the second round of voting in France scheduled for over the weekend on 7 July. In a strategic move to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front (NFP) has announced it will withdraw its candidates in 200 districts where they finished third, lending support to stronger candidates opposing the National Rally (RN). Forecasts now indicate the RN and its allies are likely to win between 190 and 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. Prior to these withdrawals, polls had estimated the RN could secure between 250 and 300 seats. In the forex market, a bullish push could see the euro retesting the previous high around 1.0850, with a potential challenge to the 1.0900 psychological level switching the broader outlook to bullish. Conversely, a drop below the 200 SMA may find immediate support at 1.0775, with further support at the 50 and 100 SMA levels around 1.0733.
by BlackBull_Markets
UK100 FTSE100 - ABC Correction Uderway?Hello Guys, The yearly Candle is slightly Bullish - but we did not see a break on a closing base of the crucial 7900 area -> ATH. A Retest of this area would constitute a Bullish setup - which I would be happy to be part of after the last rallye. Q2 Close - Doji -> might see a consolidation phase from here with a sideways to down mentality - considering the recent gains the bulls had. The monthly Bias is Bearish. A Bearish Engulfing Pattern (Although a small one) has been formed. The Stochastic confirms a Bearish Bias - not totally contradicting the higher Timeframes! So Bulls be prepared for some drop… Just an idea from my side. A Double Top at 8400 would be a strong sign of Bears being back. -> For the bulls 7900 has to hold - for the bears 8400. Thats all for now… Thanks for reading
FX:UK100Short
by MeruEU
Independence from the Tories: A new July 4th As the UK approaches the July 4th general election, the Labour Party is set to end the Conservatives' 14-year rule. According to the latest BBC poll tracker, Labour leads by 20 points, with 41% of the vote, while the Conservatives hold 21%, and Reform UK is at 16%. Labour's pledge to improve EU relations could strengthen the pound by reducing Brexit-induced trade frictions. This potential easing could boost the UK economy and support sterling. The pound has remained relatively stable ahead of the election, with the GBP/USD hovering near the 1.2700 mark. Despite the broad expectation of a Labour victory, traders appear cautious. A decisive break above this level could see buyers gaining control. Given Labour's substantial lead in the polls, it is plausible that the market has already priced in a Labour victory to a significant extent. However, the actual impact on sterling and broader market sentiment will depend on the clarity and execution of Labour's economic policies post-election.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bracing for UK Inflation & BOE decision In the UK, inflation data expected tomorrow is projected to fall to 2% in May, down from 2.3% in April. This would mark the first time since April 2021 that inflation has hit the Bank of England’s 2% target. However, a positive inflation report is unlikely to result in a rate cut at Thursday’s meeting, especially with an election on July 4th. Markets are pricing in an initial rate cut for August. Technically, the pound/dollar has been trading sideways recently. With GBP/USD breaking below 1.2700, the first support level is at 1.2667, the May 24 low. For any more downside, the next target could be the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2643, followed by 1.2600. Limiting the downside could be the recently released US retail sales data. US retail sales grew by a modest 0.1% in May, below the expected 0.2% gain. Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 0.1%. Additionally, April retail sales were revised down from flat to a 0.2% decline.
by BlackBull_Markets