AUDUSD 8/30 - 9/3AUD/USD extends Friday’s run-up, the biggest since early June while refreshing a fortnight high around 0.7320, up 0.08% intraday.
+ Australia Company Gross Operating Profits jump 7.1% in Q2.
+ A weaker US dollar, as courtesy of the dovish Fed Chair Powell last Friday.
AUD/USD buyers are on the way to the monthly top surrounding 0.7430 but 0.7360 - 0.7390 may offer immediate resistance to the pair. Meanwhile, technical indicators have bounced from near oversold readings, heading north but still within negative levels. The pair could recover further in the next few sessions, but the wider perspective suggests that the current advance is corrective and that sellers may soon return.
=> Bulls could have better chances if the pair breaks above 0.7390, a strong static resistance level, followed by 0.7430, this month’s high. The first support level is located at 0.7230, followed by the year bottom at 0.7148.
=> This week, we will become seller. Price entry 0.73 and waiting for selllimit 0.7364. Take profit 0.7230 or 0.7185. Stoploss if 0.7360 - 0.7390 resistance zone is broken.
UK
GBP/USD: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE ACTION |SHORT VIEW 🔔A slowdown in the UK economy can cause the Bank of England's monetary normalisation rate to be minimised. In such a situation, much in the fate of GBPUSD begins to depend on the Fed. We discuss the market outlook and make a trading plan. Once the pound was popular among buyers due to the accelerated vaccination. The UK is now among the leaders in terms of the fully vaccinated population. At the same time, the slower increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Britain compared to the United States does not worry GBPUSD traders. The government is doing everything possible to accelerate economic growth. Despite the opening of the economy, British citizens are in no hurry to spend money.
That is why we see this pair in the Daily chart within a side channel since February with the price bouncing between levels around 1.42 and 1.36. In the last few days we can see that the chart has been characterized by lows and highs to fall and the price bring below the average 200 about to cross with the 50 and sanction the beginning of a bearish trend. In opposition to this, with the evidence of a divergence in the stochastic indicator, the price could have a further bullish impulse and continue to stay within the aforementioned rectangular zone. In the chart you can see two important price levels. Our Idea is fundamentally bearish.
10-year Gilts 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline ~129.750 to become valid.
Both patterns equally project 128.250 as the target.
Objectively looking at the entire base beginning around the high volume bar in February it is curve-like. Looking to the weekly timeframe it is quite possible this is the formation of a cup with the handle to follow.
So there is some conflict in this area which can lead to a large number of market participants getting it wrong and as a consequence more momentum. It is quite probable that market participants have already shorted the double top breakout. Waiting for the head and shoulders to confirm with an ~129.750 neckline breakout before entry is advantageous. Stop placement above what appears to be a right shoulder at ~130.750 yields a 1.5R target.
It would also be beneficial to visualise the 1-week handle as a means of guarding against the 1-day head and shoulder pattern failure.
GBP/USD:FULL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION+FIBO+PROJECTION 🔔GBP/USD | British Pound to US Dollar Trading Analysis
The Bank of England is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy.
The correlation ration Between GBP/USD and EUR/USD is strong positive . The Euro is going down and the The Bank of England seems not have fear about any monetary policy.
As you can see , our premium Technical Analysis and projection for the short term and middle term future....
📚EDUCATION: THE BASICS OF TRADING EXPLAINED📚
Hello, Traders!
The basics of what it takes to be a successful trader are simple and obvious
Yet daily, I see traders who fail at one or multiple KEY points that sink their performance and they keep losing accounts even though these people do have the understanding of the market that would have been sufficient enough for them to be profitable if they followed the basic rules. Trading is as much about pattern recognition and capacity for abstract thinking as it is about the personality type, self-discipline, and specific mindset.
The lucky few are born fit for trading, but others might train themselves.
Below, is the breakdown of the basics behind the day trading!
✅TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT GAMBLING
99% of the new traders have unrealistic expectations of the kind of returns trading might deliver. To make matters worse, they do not realize that it will take years of trial and error before they can make trading Their only source of income.
These delusions make the newbies treat trading like gambling. To AVOID this, please follow these 4 easy steps:
🔥SET AND KEEP YOUR RISK-REWARD.
I recommend risking no more than 1% of the deposit per each trade, which also implies using a variable lot size for every trade, so that no matter the SL
size in pips, or the pair you are trading, the dollar value of the RIKS remains the same with each trade. That way, you are in full control of the risks you
are taking.
🔥DO NOT GO ALL IN.
Sounds obvious, but I’ve seen it so many times. New traders, who lost 70% of the account, GO ALL IN on one trade that they think might help them
recover the balance. That is NEITHER a way to trade, nor a way to learn. Slowly losing your account while learning how to trade, is simply a fee that you
are paying the market for your education. Accept it or fail.
🔥PROTECT CAPITAL=USE SL
I can’t stress this enough and I BEG YOU to use SL. Do NOT enter the trade thinking that if the SL level that you had in mind is hit you will close
manually. You will NOT close the position, and the longer you hold it the more is the temptation to wait a bit more because it seems that the reversal is
coming soon.
🔥CUT LOSSES
Set a daily loss limit. For example, you can Ban yourself from trading for the rest of the day if you lost more than 3 trades in a row. You will enter what
is called a tilt most likely, and you will NOT be productive that day. The same goes for a week. Lost more than 10% of the account in a week? Next week
NO TRADING for you. Watch the market passively, or trade on the demo! By the way, That can be helpful even for professional traders too!
✅KEEPING A COOL HEAD IS KEY
The ideal trader is the one who can set all emotions aside as a robot would, while simultaneously keeping the versatility of the human mind and the intuition, that the machines lack(yet). It is of utmost importance for the new traders to understand that being right about the direction but entering too early or too late is the same as being WRONG because the result will be a LOSS.
Here is how to keep cool:
🔥CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS.
Both euphoria and a panic attack are your enemies so the more detached you are, the better. Emotions are for the casino, and we are doing business
here, remember?
🔥AVOID FOMO( FEAR OF MISSING OUT)
That one applies mostly to the trades that you are not so sure about, but still want to take them, in fear of not making money. And the early entries
are determined by FOMO too( what if the price does not reach my limit order, and the trade plays out well, but without ME?) FOMO is Incredibly
counterproductive, don't let it control you!
🔥DON’T FOLLOW OTHERS
Avoid herd mentality! 99% of traders lose money, so doing what everyone does inevitably lands you in the 99% category.
🔥BUILD A WATCH LIST
A LOT of the beginners try to PREDICT behavior of the particular instrument that they decided to trade for some reason, instead of going through the
pairs looking for a ready setup that you KNOW works. The former approach leads to finding patterns, key levels, and setups that just aren’t there.
Naturally, the result of trading these is an inevitable LOSS.You should Build a watchlist big enough for your to have a choice, and go through it at
regular intervals, looking for opportunities but NOT INVENTING them.
✅ CONSISTENCY OVER BOOM-BUST STYLE
Consistent trading is the only way to make trading a reliable source of income. Slow but steady gains always beat leap-like boom-bust performance.
The psychological pressure of the latter will most likely break you sooner or later, and who needs gray hair in their 30es anyway?
That is how you achieve consistency:
🔥FIND A STRATEGY
Do the research on multiple trading strategies and pick those that you understand and that are compatible with your personality.
🔥USE PAPER TRADING AND BACKTESTING
To select which strategy is right for you, use backtesting to see how the strategy performed in the past. And use paper trading to see how the strategy
works in real-time.Once you chose the strategy, go back to paper trading and backtesting to polish it.
🔥TRACK YOUR TRADES
Keeping track of your trading! Working with that data is an invaluable tule for the trader, that helps identify your strengths and weaknesses, while also
helping you notice patterns in your trading that would have been left unrecognized otherwise.
🔥FORMALIZE YOUR RULES
Objectivity is KEY for consistent trading because during the rough patches of the market, being sure of your rules helps you stay in the market, waiting
for the tailwind, instead of questioning your strategy or your implementation of it. Create a strict ALGORITHM and follow it step by step. In order to do
that, you need to define every element of your strategy as precisely as possible. For example, a level for you is a daily horizontal level with at least 3
touchpoints, a breakout is valid only if the 4H candle closed above the level, etc... The less vague the terms, the fewer emotions will be involved in
deciding whether to enter the trade or not.
❗️IN CONCLUSION: If you want to become a trader, remember:
1- It will take YEARS to learn how to trade.
2- You will lose a TON of money in the process
3- You will FAIL with 95% probability.
4-Realistic returns from trading are WAY lower than you think
5-BUT when you succeed, you will set yourself free!
Please SUPPORT This Idea By A LIKE and COMMENT!
UKX Hourly - Consolidating before next leg higher Decent bounce o/n / this morning following yesterday's sell off. I still favour a further move to the upside to test the initial break down. Can potentially see a bit of consolidation here in the red zone before targeting 6980. RSI has also broken out.
Are UK equities in danger?First things first, let's set the scenery with some backnotes:
- US equities are a ticking bomb as well
- Bitcoin is stuck in a tight range and looks for the driver to lead the next move
- Inflation keeps rising in the US while rumors for deflation are growing as people believe that 2008 is going to repeat again
- USD Index is in a global uptrend
Since we have the background, we can go into the technicals of the major UK index.
United Kingdom has yet to recover from the 2020 crash which makes it so suspicious that dark clouds are being gathered above the City. However, even if the index could just accumulate some momentum and make new 2021 highs, the timing is the worst now, as the US indices are already rocketed massively. As that said, it is really likely that a rush above the supply area would be the poisonous apple that would trigger the waterfall effect afterwards.
With the nearest floor being solid at 5400 - 5800 area, UK100 has surely a lot of room to fall before it can actually find some reliable support from the bulls.
Time will show what's next but one thing is for sure; dark clouds are being gathered and any bullish move would be psuedo-euphoric.
Take care!
SINGAPORE UK INDONESIA COVID-19 UpdateSingapore COVID-19 is on a downtrend, albeit a potential small spike due to some infected hostesses may have affected a number of people. Not the most flattering of ways to get a spike. But it is tapering off for now...
UK on the other hand, eases its measures today, but leaves me wondering IF anyone is even watching the charts, or doing any statistical studies. The wave onset projected is on time, and it is on now... starts now, for the next couple of months! Hello ??
Indonesia has gotten from bad to worse to even worse. Projections are underestimating the acceleration as daily cases from 20,000 a week ago now hits 40,000 yesterday. This would take more than a couple of months to slow down, if at all. IT's too little too late for vaccinations now, but that's the best weapon there is in the shed.
Malaysia is modulating the current wave, and current projections point to a slow down in infection spread.
UK COVID-19 Next Wave Projection Update IIFrom the previous post on 14 May, I was doing a friend a favour into looking at the UK projection as she is living in London.
I said "... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July .
IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July ."
It is the beginning of July, and it appears that the AMCD histograms trended up as expected, and is about to break out into a major spike given the weekly chart is about to crossover into the bullish territory.
The daily chart is clearly showing the spike in force... go see it.
So there you have it, yet again, this MACD model is projecting very well the onset of spikes. IF the powers that be, could appreciate this heuristical statistics, we might be able to intervene appropriately.
In any case... the weekly MACD is about to cross up, which is seriously bad news!
History likes to repeat itself - Sylvania PlatinumA careful look at the chart, and you can easily see that SLP is forming a bull flag after the peak of £1.50. Compare this to the last time this happened, a similar bull flag sent this higher. It looks to be in a strong, steady uptrend for now. Waiting for the bull flag to break.
Note: Not professional financial advice. Thanks and GLTA.
Ucommune International Ltd 🧙 Ucommune International Ltd is an agile office space provider and manager. The company provides specialized, integrated service for managing agile office spaces and solutions in China. It provides open station spaces, private office spaces, and hourly desks. The company generates revenue from providing various agile office space solutions to its members from whom it collects monthly rent in the form of membership service fees or office workstation rental fees.
If you want not to miss ideas like this one,🎯 subscribe and press a thumb up! 👍 Have a question? Don't be shy to ask! 🤓 Interested to study how to analyze charts, follow me!
UK COVID-19 Next Wave ProjectionI was just having a conversation with a Singaporean good friend who lives in London, and called this afternoon upon learning about the (earlier expected) stricter measures that was just announced this afternoon. We were exchanging views on how the countries differ in the management of the pandemic, and the consequent success and failures. Then mentioned that UK may be next... and I offered to use the same MACD system to project for the UK from the current known status.
In the chart above, the MACD corroborates that the situation in the UK had somewhat stabilized over the last two months after their Easter lockdown. Thing is, there appears to be a levelling off, and the arc drawn is projecting how it might turn out over the next weeks... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July.
IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July.
Let's test this system again!
Meanwhile... do take care, stay safe, stay healthy, especially if you are in the UK.
GBPUSD - Things could take a turn...GBPUSD
Fundamentally it is a currency I am looking into carefully this week ahead. We have BOE, now the word 'tapering' for CB's has been floating for all . Which BOC actually tapered. For further info regarding tapering - Comment down below or message privately I will be sure to send you FX Weekly week ahead preview newsletter to you.
Technical aspects:
Pattern: Longer term - Range bound / Wedge - 1.3700 - 1.40300. Shorter term - Double Top
Support: 1.37700, 1.36840, 1.35975 50 EMA
Resistance: 1.39900, 1.40425, 1.41395
Longer term - A break to either direction to see who's really in control of this market.
Shorter term - Double top, measuring to the next support area.
Things to keep in mind: BOE, End of months Flows & Trade what you see, not what you think.
Have a great week ahead.
Trade Journal