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Pound & easing global monetary policyYesterday, quite unexpectedly, a block of economic data on GDP and industrial production, instead of already traditional disappointment, provided an occasion for optimism. In July UK GDP grew by 0.3% (expected to grow at 0.1%), while industrial production instead of a decline by 0.3% (expert forecasts) went to the positive zone ( + 0.1% ). Monday following Johnson’s next parliamentary defeat in a few days. His next attempt to initiate an early election failed. come into effect Law against "no-deal" Brexit came into effect. Not surprisingly, the pound continued to grow against such a background. Our position on the pound is unchanged: we are looking for points for purchases. But with small stops, because the situation with Brexit can develop quite dynamically. Meanwhile, the markets are preparing for a wave of rate cuts by leading central banks of the world. On Friday, the Bank of China lowered the rate by 0.5% to the lowest level since 2007. In this light, the decision of the ECB on Thursday is becoming more significant and significant. Recall next week the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Switzerland will announce their decisions. So the upcoming two weeks promise to be full of news. Strengthening of the Russian ruble in the foreign exchange market is a good opportunity to begin the formation of a medium-term purchase cycle with USDRUB. Current prices are the starting point of the cycle. The next one is 63.60 and the final one is about 62.50. And finally, buying gold from current prices seems to be a very good trading opportunity. Recall it is worth buying with stops.
Long
by Trade24Fx
AFTER the fact trade : GBPCHF 8 Sept 2019Refering to this trade (also linked below the post) I exited the trade when the GDP number came out. The probability was against me when that number came out so I cut my loss immediately. I risked 0.8% for this trade and ended losing approx 0.4%. The takeaways that I would like my readers to get from this post are as follows : 1) Trading isn't about being right, it is about managing risk when you are wrong 2) Don't over-leverage 3) Apply discretion around a very well thought out trading plan/strategy (i.e the GDP number came out and I did not see the value to stay in the trade as the probability was severely against me) 4) It is okay to take a loss 5) Be wary of risk-events even if you don't include fundamental analysis in your trading methodolgies
Short
by sufiansaid
FTSE - Forming a right shoulder?Trade Idea Trading has been mixed and volatile. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. We have a 50% Fibonacci pullback level of 7374 from 7729 to 7020. Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 7375, resulting in improved risk/reward. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to Sell at 7375 Stop: 7425 Target 1: 7235 Target 2: 7170
FX:UK100Short
by Signal_Centre
GBP: All options remain on the tableBy Andria Pichidi The Pound has racked up a second day of losses, presently showing a 0.6% decline and is now down by 2.4% from week-ago levels versus the Dollar. Markets look to be hedging more on there being on a no-deal Brexit than a Brexit with a deal and transition period, or even a Brexit cancelled scenario, even though these remain possibilities. The logic is that even if opposition members of parliament managed to legislate against a no-deal Brexit this week, which is looking a real possibility, then Prime Minister Johnson would call an election, of which he and his Tory party would be favourites to win, especially as he would have the backup of forming a coalition with the Brexit Party. This would keep the possibility, if not probability, of a no-deal on the table. There would be no guarantee of Johnson winning an election, however, particularly if the Labour and Liberal Democratic parties united in a coalition. Cable printed a low at 1.1958, which is the lowest seen since the flash-crash nadir seen in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in 2016. The pound also traded lower versus the euro and yen, among other currencies, but has so far remained above recent major-trend lows in these cases. Various analyst notes are in circulation arguing the merits of taking a long sterling position, or buying an "long way" out-of-the-money call option in anticipation of a sustained short squeeze (boiling down to a bet that a no-deal Brexit will at some point cease to be a possibility, which is a risk proposition). Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
1
Brexit worries pushing down GBPAUD ****Quite a risky trade due to Brexit uncertainty, take half your normal lot size GBP pairs are being quite difficult to trade over the last months, being subject to very volatile movements. However, this could be a good opportunity worth the try: 1. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, plotting it from the previous swing high to the latest swing low, we can observe that price managed to retrace up to the 0.5 level, leaving a strong wick that nearly reached 0.618, but retracing back down. 2. Again, it retested the 0.5 level but didn't managed to break it, forming a strong bearish engulfing candle, breaking the 4 hour support (now converted into 4 hour resistance) 3. It retested the 4 hour resistance, however it didn´t managed to break it to the upside, forming a strong bearish engulfing candle. This shows the strong seller power that there is currently, signalling that price could come back down to retest the weekly support. Fundamentally, I see a week GBP due to Boris Johnson's parliament suspension and all the negative comments surrounding UK. Take profit: weekly support, around 1.78370 Stop loss: slightly above the latest lower high
Short
by albc
Greggs - Buying the dipBUY – GREGGS (GRG) Greggs plc is a United Kingdom-based bakery food on-the-go retailer. The Company's products and services consist of a range of fresh bakery goods, sandwiches and drinks in its shop. Fundamentals The success story of Greggs is quite remarkable with the shares rising significantly over a 5-year period. The baker recently delivered an ‘exceptional trading performance’, total sales were up 14.7% and like-for-like sales were up 10.5%. The introduction of vegan sausage rolls has been a massive success and no doubt brought new customers to stores across the country. The recent decline looks like a decent opportunity to buy. Best Broker Target Price: 2300p (UBS 28/08/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 1780p (Berenberg Bank 16/05/2019) Technical Analysis The long-term chart of Greggs shows a spectacular uptrend. The recent dips from the highs of 2496p has been uncharacteristic and could present a fantastic opportunity to buy. Corrections are normal for share prices and following this recent bout of profit taking the shares now look more attractive. The close above the 10EMA on the 28th August 2019 could be a signal of bullish momentum returning. A move back to the highs to reassert the long-term trend is expected. Recommendation: Buy Buy between 2000-2100p Stop: 1895p Target: 2495p
LSE:GRGLong
by Investamate
3
BAE Systems - About to rocket?BUY – BAE SYSTEMS (BA.) BAE Systems plc is a defense, aerospace and security company. The Company operates through five segments. The Electronic Systems segment consists of the Company's United States and United Kingdom-based electronics activities. Fundamentals The company boasts special relationships with both the US and Saudi Arabia. The company has provided support and equipment to the Saudi armed forces for several decades now. The Middle East is a very important revenue stream and the company is actively trying to diversify its client list. BAE has not cut its dividend for 20 years and continues to maintain a dividend yield in excess of 4%. Best Broker Target Price: 690p (Deutsche Bank 15/07/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 530p (JP Morgan Cazenove 17/07/2019) Technical Analysis BAE Systems share price broke out of a large range in July 2019 to confirm a bottom pattern. The shares subsequently move higher towards a high of 570p. In recent weeks there has been evidence of profit taking as the shares have dipped back to the breakout level to confirm support. So far, the support level is holding, which we believe is an indication of fresh buying interest. Further upside is expected over the medium term. Recommendation: Buy Buy between 530-545p Stop: 520p Targets: 615p
LSE:BA.Long
by Investamate
1
Vodafone - Extending higher from a bottom patternBUY – VODAFONE (VOD) Vodafone Group Plc is a telecommunications company. The Company's business is organized into two geographic regions: Europe, and Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific. Fundamentals Vodafone’s share price has drifted sideways to lower for the past few years, but all of a sudden, the price has risen almost 25% in 3 months. This follows the first cut of the dividend since 1990 back in May 2019. The most recent update was a positive one with the company stating they are confident in delivering their revised earnings target. They also planned to raise around €20million from the sale of 60,000 mobile masts through a potential IPO of firm TowerCo. This would create Europe’s largest power company. Best Broker Target Price: 250p (Deutsche Bank 09/08/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 140p (Berenberg Bank 19/06/2019) Technical Analysis The share price gapped up through the long-term downtrend channel on the May results. This then led to the completion of a large bottom pattern on the break above resistance at 147.8p. The projected upside move from the bottom pattern comes in at 171.44p. Beyond that there is scope for significantly more upside according to the 250p price target from Deutsche Bank that was published on the 9th August 2019. Recommendation: Buy Buy between 150-157p Stop: 143.5p Target: 175p
LSE:VODLong
by Investamate
Sinking feeling againBy Andria Pichidi Pound Crosses UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweet-reminded his government’s position: “We are ready to work with our friends and partners to get a deal. But if you want a good deal for the UK, you must simultaneously get ready to come out without one.” Johnson, who will be meeting Germany’s Merkel and France’s Macron this week, is above all looking for the EU to soften its objection to the Brexiteer proposals for “alternative arrangements” on the Irish border. He knows full well that the EU won’t be making any concessions at this juncture, with Brussels looking to see how the upcoming political battle between the anti-no-deal and pro-no-deal Brexit parliamentary factions goes. Boris is wanting to see the former group fail in its efforts to thwart a no-deal Brexit, either legislatively or by attempting to bring his government down by a no confidence vote, which he would see as a victory that would greatly strengthen his negotiating position. But, given how intractable the EU’s red line is for having a post-Brexit Irish border backstop, which both Ireland and Brussels see as essential to avoid breaching the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (which brought peace to Northern Ireland), it’s hard to see what concessions the EU would be prepared to give the UK even in the face of a disorderly no-deal exit. EU officials see the UK’s position as being fundamentally weak, as a no-deal scenario would be more damaging to the UK economy than it would be to the EU economy. Some senior EU figures have reportedly been conjecturing that even if the UK leaves, sans deal, the country would return cap in hand within a matter of months as the reality of no-deal hit home. Sterling has that sinking feeling again, with Cable earlier printing a 3-day low at 1.2083 and EURGBP lifting back above 0.9160. Next Support for Cable holds at last week’s low range, i.e. 1.2017- 1.2020. Intraday, Resistance holds at pivot point at 1.2120. Boris’ tweet doesn’t tell us anything new, and hence it is not expected to sustain selling, with the Pound looking to have found an equilibrium of sorts over the last week following a protracted, multi-month period of underperformance. Market participants are anticipating what promises to be a phase of high Brexit drama, which will commence when parliament returns from summer recess on September 3, when the anti-no-deal and pro-no-deal Brexit parliamentary factions will do battle. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
1
Howden Joinery - Throw the kitchen sink at it?Technical Howden Joinery looks interesting on a technical basis. The shares shot higher to new highs following a bullish update to the market. We have since seen the share price unwind to some sensible levels as the overall market continues in this condolidaiton phase. The shares have reached a confluence of Fibonacci support levels, which I have highlighted on the chart. We have seen buying interest emerge and a gap higher in price to break out of a consolidation wedge. The overall trend remains bullish and a move to new highs is expected. Fundamentals The UK’s leading manufacturer and supplier of fitted kitchens, appliances and joinery products has been paying dividend yields of around 2.5%. Howden ended the reporting period with net cash of £217.1m, which makes its forward P/E multiples of around 14-15 look attractive. Stop: 505p Target: 600p
LSE:HWDNLong
by Investamate
Ocado - Looking ripe for buying.Technical Ocado has had a dramatic rise in price over the past 18 months. The breakout level at 1163p has been retested and has so far been well supported. The shares have been in a consolidation phase for the past few weeks, but some signs are emerging that could put an end to the sideways price action. A move back to and above the previous highs is expected from here. Fundamentals The company continues to make strides into technology, which offers potential medium-term growth. Numis reiterated thier 'Buy' rating on the 10th May 2019 with a price target of 1700p Ocado has announced a string of deals and recently tied up a joint venture with Marks and Spencer. Stop 1105p Target 1500p
LSE:OCDOLong
by Investamate
The resurrection of the pound & revolution in the bond marketUK monthly retail sales were expected to decrease by 0.2% however, but fortunately, we observe the increase by 0.2%. The pound was trying to gain a foothold above 1.21. Although the attempt failed at the end of the day, we continue to recommend buying the pound both mid-term positions and on the intraday basis. Pound back above $1.21 but not for the log time. US retail sales grew unexpectedly Nevertheless, our recommendation is to sell on the intraday basis as well as medium-term positions - remains unchanged. The situation with the dollar has not changed much - it is too expensive given that the Fed started cutting interest rates and the threat of foreign exchange intervention by the United States. Financial markets, meanwhile, continue to evolve literally before our eyes. Who would have thought a few years ago that investors would be willing to pay extra for the right to lend money? More than $ 16 trillion has been invested by investors in bonds with a negative yield. And the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds fell below 2%, which is a historic low. We live in interesting times. Argentina’s sovereign century bonds tumbled by the most since they were sold in June 2017. Currently, the yield on Argentina's international bonds is close to 100% (!), which made them the cheapest in the world. The yield on dollar bonds of the Argentinean government rose to 27%. Funds that invested in Argentine bonds are suffering huge losses. Considering that Argentina is not an economic dwarf, everything might end badly for the global economy. Thanks to China, yesterday was an opportunity to make good money on our recommendation to sell gold. The asset has grown (1525) on the news that China is threatening the US with countermeasures. It seems like China has felt the strength and is ready to confront the United States. But it is still too early to panic. We still consider such behaviour as preparations for negotiations between the United States and China. The parties are simply trying to gain an advantage in the negotiating position. Recall, in our opinion, gold value is too high. But the situation can change at any time., We continue to monitor the development of events and will continue to keep our readers updated on what is happening and how to make money on it.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Markets recovering, and we sell almost everythingThis summer can not be called calm. Nonetheless, increased volatility and uncertainty are advantages. There are excellent trading opportunities every day, of course, if you understand what happens in the financial markets. Recall China lowered the value of the Yuan below its 7 to 1 peg against the dollar in response to a new series of U.S. tariffs. China Halts U.S. Agriculture Purchases. China has chosen the most painful points for Trump. The result was a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets, so those of our readers who heed our recommendations should have made good money buying gold and the Japanese yen. However, the value of gold and the Japanese yen, in our opinion, is too high. Yes, and the VIX Fear index dynamics. (decreased by more than 20% of the maximum marks achieved after Trump's decision to raise tariffs) suggests that the worst is over so far. So this week we will sell both gold and the Japanese yen. Since such a decision runs counter to the current the market will, we fix each position with hard stops. Friday appeared extremely “bad day” for the pound. Last week, the pound was consolidating in the region of 1.21-1.22 ( GBPUSD), gradually “compressing the spring”. As a result, UK GDP growth for the second quarter decreased (expected zero growth), as industrial production in June. The UK GDP growth rate has not crossed the negative zone since 2012. So when the GBPUSD is lower than 1.21 is a trend. Our trading position on the pound has not changed much - we continue to keep its medium-term purchases, but on the intraday basis go against the market and take extra minutes is not worth it. So for now, GBPUSD is below 1.21 so its short-term purchases you should probably wait with. A return above 1.21 will be a signal for its purchases. As for the upcoming week, on Tuesday, we pay attention to statistics on the UK labor market and consumer inflation in the United States, on Wednesday to the Eurozone GDP and inflation in the UK, on Thursday we monitor data on retail sales in the US and the UK, and on Friday we fix profit. So it won’t be boring. We continue to work and earn. Our trading activity for today will be exclusively bearish: we sell gold and the Japanese yen; We sell the Russian ruble and oil.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
FTSE 2 hour ideaSimilar to my Dax idea just posted, a lot of world equities are bouncing...remember central banks can still cut rates and do QE/stimulus which means there will be nowhere to go for yield except the stock markets. The party might not just be over yet. Similar description to the FTSE as with the DAX, a prolonged downtrend and basing at a support zone. We had a wedge and broke above the resistance zone and even the previous lower high swing. 7375 zone is a flip zone you should watch and then 7575 above.
OANDA:UK100GBPLong
by Uncharted-FX