UK
Attack on tankers, game of thrones of Britain & trading ideaAccording to media reports an oil tanker turned into a fireball after a suspected torpedo attack off the coast of Iran. A second tanker was said to have been targeted by a magnetic mine in a series of explosions. Oil rushed up as we expected. However, we consider this growth an opportunity for sales at a higher price. Considering that this week oil reserves in the United States have risen to its maximum value amounted 485.47 million barrels since July 2017. In general, over the past 3 months, oil reserves in the United States have shown a weekly growth rate of 10 times.
The race to be the next British prime minister stared yesterday. Conservative MPs will now take part in a series of votes to whittle the candidates down to the final two. Any candidate who fails to secure at least 17 MPs' votes will be eliminated from the contest. Further ballots will be held next week, with the two most popular MPs moving to a run-off of Tory party members.
Boris Johnson topped the ballot in the first round of voting (received more than 100 votes). His closest competitors, Jeremy Hunt(Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, and Michael Gove( Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), received 43 and 37 votes.
As you can see, the most likely winner is Boris Johnson. His position is more than tough - Brexit at any price. So, the pressure on the pound is likely to increase. In this regard, we will focus on finding points for selling pounds.
Friday will be quite a busy day in terms of macroeconomic statistics. First of all, we are talking about the data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. In addition, attention should be paid to similar statistics from China. If the economy shows signs of a worsening economic halt (which is very likely), the forecast from Paul Tudor Jones is at least a step closer to its implementation.
In a recent interview with the investment fund founder“Tudor Investment Corporation” and one of the best investors of our time Paul Tudor Jones. Gold is his favorite pick in the next 12 to 24 months. If it hits $1,400, it will quickly move to $1,700, he said. Motivation - US rates are likely to return to zero values again, and the trade war will slow down the development of the world economy.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the sales of the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
US Inflation, damage to the global economy & PM BorisAccording to The Economist, the trade war between the United States and China has already caused the global economy irreparable damage, disrupting the supply chain that had been creating for several decades. The point is that, there are a lot of Chinese companies have found the way of delivery of goods to the United States. For instance, across Vietnam. The scheme is very simple: the label “Made in Vietnam” is glued to Chinese goods and the goods are sold in the United States without the additional costs associated with duties. The downside of this was the destruction of the old logistics chains, and the creation of new ones, apart from the general riskiness, requires additional costs.
As proof of the damage, the information has been given as an example that the current business cycle is ending. Since the crisis in 2008, the world economy has gone through a very long period of recovery, and the business cycle usually enters a recession phase every decade. This assumption is confirmed by the data on exports from the developed countries, as well as exports from developed countries to other developed countries, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2009.
In general, it is worth preparing for the worst. In this regard, we recall that our recommendations are buying safe-haven assets.
It is worth noting yesterday's inflation data from the United States. Consumer inflation appeared below forecasts and reached the Fed target. This is quite an alarming signal for the dollar. Note, that the markets still believe that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged next week, but in a month in July, the US Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25% (the current probability of this event is more than 80%).
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has launched his campaign to get a post of Prime Minister. His main slogan is "Brexit at any price". This is an alarming signal for the pound, because "at any price" includes a no-deal Brexit. In this case, the consequences for the UK economy as a whole and the pound, in particular, could be unpredictable.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the US dollar sales against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
GBP vaulted upwards – Could this be sustained?By Andria Pichidi - June 11, 2019
EURGBP
Sterling vaulted higher on the UK perky wage data, which provided interbank and short-term speculative participants to put a squeeze on short positions, especially with the data coming after BoE MPC hawk Saunders reminded markets that prevailing Brexit uncertainty won’t necessarily stop the central bank from tightening policy, if it were necessary to anchor inflation. The Pound had yesterday taken a wallop following the big miss in April GDP and production data out of the UK.
UK wages rose a tad more than expected in an overall near-expectations labour report for April. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, which is the lowest rate sine October-December 1974, while the employment rate was 76.1%, the joint-highest on record. Average household income in the three months to April came in at 3.1% y/y in the including-bonus metric, slightly surpassing the median forecast for 3.0% and following a 3.3% y/y in March, which was revised up from 3.2%.
Cable lifted to 1.2710 above the 20-day SMA, while EURGBP rotated lower below 0.8900 from 5-month’s high. Despite today’s small Pound strength, the Pound remains close to the 5-month low against the Euro in what is now the sixth consecutive week the UK currency has breached its prior-week low versus the common currency.
With the 5 consecutive weekly bullish candles, the market broke eventually the key handle at 0.8840 and is now the attention could be turned to the 0.8940 level which reflects another key Resistance level seen at the last quarter of 2019. The trigger point is currently just 40 pips above the current move, as the positive momentum increases.
Looking at the daily chart, technical indicators are headed higher, with RSI consolidating around 70 and MACD lines rolling over above the signal live and well above neutral zone, suggesting that the today’s recovery process for Pound, was temporary. Hence the jump higher for Sterling on the UK perky wage data couldnt be sustain as the overall outlook is against the Sterling.
Hence given that the EURGBP holds above 0.8825-0.8840 area (0.8800 is the 20-day SMA), and amid prolonged political and associated Brexit uncertainty, along with a slowing economies in continental Europe, the trend looks to remain intacked in EURGBP.
A decisive break of the 0.8940 could raise hopes for further increase of the positive bias and could open the doors towards 0.9000-0.9100 area. Immediate Support is set at 200-week EMA, at 0.8550. Meanwhile, intraday Support is set at 0.8880.
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Bitcoin Buy Zone (Support Levels On The Weekly)(BTCUSD)We looked at Bitcoin and its next potential moves. We looked at the bullish and bearish views... Now, let's take a look at the different support levels on the weekly time frame... Keeping it plane and simple...
Now, let's get started... Feel free to hit like to show your support.
(BTCUSD) Bitcoin Weekly Support Levels
Support marked by Fib. retracement levels:
(1) $6874
(2) $6179
(3) $5484
(4) $4494 (0.786 Fib. retracement level)
Support levels marked by Exponential Moving Averages:
(1) $6966 (EMA10)
(2) $5844 (EMA50)
(3) $5571 (EMA100)
(4) $4494 (EMA200)
Main support range for an expected bounce if bullish action is to continue right away, anything lower and the bear action can extend: $6000 - $7100.
These are some of the main levels where Bitcoin (BTCUSD) can find support.
There are many different ways to find support levels, here we are sharing just a few... Resistance levels are also marked on the chart based on Fib. numbers from the last bullish wave.
We hope you find this information useful and if you have any questions feel free to ask... It is my pleasure to reply.
Namaste.
EU Elections, the USA isn't ready for peace & RF monetary policyIt is not surprising that nothing significant in the dynamics of prices for financial assets occurred duo to calm mood on the USA and the UK financial markets.
Tuesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics also promises to be a very calm day. But we do not wait for a lull in the markets - after 3 days of rest, traders and investors with redoubled efforts could begin to follow current trends and news background.
The main news on Monday was the announcement of the results of elections to the European Parliament. The main parties of the European Union retained their positions. And the main fear, the victory of the populists, turned out to be only a fear: Euro-skeptics and the ultra-right took 171 places in total, against 503 places of four pro-European parties. In this light, we believe that our position - buying the euro against the dollar - is one less threat.
Trump went to Japan over the weekend. According to him, the United States has achieved "significant progress" in trade negotiations with Japan. But it is not necessary to count on any final deal upcoming days. Nevertheless, this kind of information rather favorably and reassuringly influenced the mood of investors and traders.
As for the main front of trade wars - between the United States and China. Trump said that the United States is not ready for the current version of the deal "and that it is not easy to pay duties to Washington for Chinese authorities, therefore they will agree to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, in the end. So the United States will continue to push.
Quite interesting information about the Russian ruble was recently shared in Bloomberg. Experts at Bloomberg Economics believe that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will lower the rate on June 14, and then again in September and December. So, after a rather long period of inactivity, the Central Bank of Russia is entering an active phase of easing monetary policy. What does this mean for the ruble? That it will become even less “attractive” for foreign investors. We consider such information as confirmation of our basic trading idea - the sale of the Russian ruble. Considering that recently the Russian ruble has strengthened, we believe that its sale is more relevant than ever.
Since nothing special happened yesterday, our trading positions did not change: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will carefully buy a pound.
We are preparing for European elections & referendum in the UKToday, we shall consider important topics, near future and opportunities.
Elections to the European Parliament will be held in Europe this week. (Elections will be held in 28 countries from May 23 to 26, 2019, 751 members will be elected. Those elected people will represent more than 512 million Europeans, which makes these elections the largest transnational elections in history.) The event is quite dangerous for the euro buyers. The fact is that the victory of the euro “skeptics” might cause difficulties in adopting the EU budget. And the Italian populists, with their plans to violate the EU budget deficit requirements, do not contribute to the faith growth in the bright future of the euro.
Another potential victim of election results could be the pound. It is all about the attention that has been focused on internal political squabbles and negotiations in the UK. There are two sides in Brexit process, they are the UK and the EU. However, the EU could not make a compromise and then there will be no agreement at all. And there will be a “rigid” Brexit. In this light, we continue to remind you of the risks incising working in pound pairs, especially when it comes to buying pounds.
Confirming our thesis about how is everything uncertain over the pound and Brexit, we cannot but note that British Prime Minister Theresa May will invite members of the House of Commons of the British Parliament to hold a new Brexit referendum. May wants to propose to British to decide, on their own, whether to approve her version of the deal or not, following the example of the majority of parliamentarians who have repeatedly voted against, or to abandon the idea of “divorce” altogether. Pound after the appearance of this news soared by a hundred points, but then returned to the original.
(in chronological order of publication) Inflation statistics from the UK, data on retail sales in Canada, as well as the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting publication, are the most interesting events.
We note that recently the Canadian dollar has strengthened in the foreign exchange market. This is due to news that the US will soon cancel duties on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. That is, the attitude of the markets towards the Canadian dollar is positive. So, the positive statistics on retail sales will definitely give an upward momentum to the currency of Canada. Recall that this week we recommend looking for points for buying of the Canadian dollar.
Our trading positions for today are as follows: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
US vs China, Trump vs Fed, and a tough week aheadLast week was marked by uncertainty about the resolution of the US and Chinese trade wars. Trump took a rather aggressive stance, resulting in an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion to 25%
China has not responded yet, but only expressed regret. And the experience shows that " respond " is inevitable. For instance, in the form of restrictions on the export of agricultural products from the United States. As for the negotiation process, despite the fact that the Chinese delegation arrived in Washington, it did not achieve success.
In our previous reviews, we have already noted that a strong dollar is one of the factors that level the effect of US trade restrictions. We were waiting for Trump to return to the old topic - pressure on the Fed to force the Central Bank to lower interest rates. On Friday, the President of the United States on Twitter collapsed with another piece of criticism on the Fed. In particular, he noted that the Central Bank raised interest rates when there was no real need for this (inflation was quite low), resulting in an overdose of monetary tightening. Further, Trump said that the United States has the potential to literally “take off” in terms of economic growth if the Fed lowers the rate by at least 1%.
Not surprisingly, the dollar was under pressure on Friday. If Trump continues to develop this theme, markets may well revise their expectations on the parameters of US monetary policy in the direction of its easing. Moreover, Friday's data on consumer inflation in the United States came out lower than expected and on an annualized basis amounted to exactly 2% (inflationary target of the Fed). So this week we will continue to sell the dollar. But, naturally, we will follow the news development.
We note that the UK GDP came out in the framework of forecasts on Friday. The figures for industrial production were pleasantly surprised (+ 0.7% with a forecast of + 0.1%). The buyers of the Canadian dollar were pleased with the data on the labor market in Canada. Changes in the number of employees exceeded the most ambitious and positive expectations: + 106.5K with the forecast of + 10K, the unemployment rate also came out better than expected. So the strengthening of the Canadian currency was fully justified.
As for the upcoming week, it is definitely not worth relaxing. News of trade wars and negotiations between the US and China will remain in the center of events, also the macroeconomic statistics (data on the UK labor market on Tuesday, GDP in the Eurozone and consumer inflation in Canada and retail sales in the United States on Wednesday; statistics on Australia’s labor market on Thursday and finally Eurozone inflation statistics on Friday) will be published. Considering how events developed last week, our positions for the current week are as follows: we will look for points to buy the Australian and Canadian dollars and the euro against the dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Trade war results, dollar’s future and a lot of statisticsThe data on the US trade balance was published yesterday. In the light of the unfolding trade wars, this publication can be regarded as an indicator of victory/failure. So, the negative trade balance between the USA and China in March decreased to a record low in the last 5 years. Formally, this can be written as a victory for the United States. But on the other hand, in the first quarter, imports to the United States from China fell by 13.6%, while exports fell by 17.6%. Well, probably, this cannot be considered as a victory, maybe only a pyrrhic victory.
In addition, the US trade deficit with Mexico reached a record $ 9.5 billion in March, and with Europe it grew by more than half to $ 14.2 billion (Trump could send greetings to the weak peso and the euro, as well as a strong dollar).
Markets are increasingly worried that Trump is not bluffing when he accuses China of disrupting negotiations and threatens a new active phase of the trade war.
In addition, attacks on a strong dollar from Trump’s side might intensify. Strengthening the dollar, as we see, eliminates the effects of current victories in trade wars. So besides the new victories, Trump also needs to ensure a lower dollar. Goldman Sachs currency strategists obviously “feel” that, because they observe the prerequisites for a weaker dollar in the medium term.
Also, it should be noted that Friday will be intensive with macroeconomic statistics such as a block of data from the UK, which among other things include statistics on GDP, industrial production and the trade balance. Given the volume and importance of data, an explosion of volatility in pound pairs is almost inevitable. Since the pound movement direction directly depends on the output data, therefore today we recommend today to try trading on the news.
So, a couple of minutes before the data release, we place buy-stop and sell-stop orders at 20-30 points from the current price at that time. GBPUSD will be best for work with. News and the subsequent surge in volatility will lead to the directional movement, the formation will be possible to earn on. Using this trading tactic, do not try to predict the price movement, but simply join the general market movement.
In addition to statistics from the UK we are waiting for a block of data on the labor market in Canada, as well as consumer inflation in the United States. So in the afternoon in dollar pairs, and especially USDCAD will not be boring. Again, this is a reason for active trading and earnings.
Our positions did not change much at the end of the week. We are continuing to look for points for buying the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, selling of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as gold and the Japanese yen buying.
NZDJPY BEARS! WILL WE CONFIRM THE BREAK OF WILL WE CONFIRM THE BREAK OF 74.600?
IF SO TARGET OF 1.73.600
Eurcad Broke The Channel Whats Next ?Here we eurcad broke out the resistance now we are seeing a futher down move toward 1.4917
Stopout @ 1.5066
book Profit 1.4917
"Trade At your Own Risk"
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Audjpy Testing Back Pevious Resistance & Now SupportMarket is Retesting to go Backup , All Technicality Seen
Location : audjpy h4
Best OF Luck
"Trade At your Own Risk"
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Eurusd Returned Back in Down Wave What Next?Hi guys, as over previous setup worked very well on eurusd as over other posts,what we see here next is that the pair may head a little more down from now so be ready to see some more downward moves in upcoming time.
Location : Eurusd H4 chart
BEst OF Luck
"Trade At your Own Risk"
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Thursday's retail sales day and Friday is a day offThe latest news on Thursday. About the publication of the United States retail sales data. Unexpectedly, for most people the data turned out to be much better than forecasts (+ 1.6% m / m with the forecast of + 1.0% m / m). Recently, the US is not very pleased with macroeconomic statistics. So, everything is completely mixed up and it is difficult to say what is really happening with the US economy. However, the Dollar Index is too close to local maxima to buy a dollar. So we continue to look for points for its sales on the intraday basis.
Canada posted quite good retail sales data (+ 0.8% m / m with a forecast of + 0.4% m / m). But in the battle of two dollars, the American turned out to be stronger than the Canadian.
The UK decided not to lag behind and also showed growth in retail sales (+ 1.1% m / m with a forecast of -0.3% m / m). However, this did not help the pound much, and together with the dollar, it set off to storm the support of 1.30.
Another reason for selling the euro has been provided by Germany. The PMI index in the manufacturing sector in Germany was worse than expected and well below 50 (44.5, with a forecast of 45.0), which is a negative signal for both the largest economy in the Eurozone and for the European single currency.
Meanwhile, in the United States the number of active rigs has dropped sharply again. According to Baker Hughes, the number of oil installations for the week decreased by 8 to 825 pieces. Such news has supported oil. However, it is still at the local top. Recall that while oil (WTI brand) is below 64.50, we will look for opportunities to sell the asset on the intraday basis.
Today will be almost a “day off”. US, UK and German markets will be closed. This means a low level of liquidity and a “thin” market. Accordingly, the probability of sharp and unpredictable price fluctuations sharply increases. Therefore, it is worth being extremely cautious in order not to run into another flash crash.
ABCD pattern on UK100Completed ABCD pattern on UK100 with weak resistances above and divergence on Fisher. Worth a shot. Sell between 7520 and 7645. Long term trading opportunity.
Not the best day for the dollar, split in the ECB, April pound The pound “reacted” to the UK data came out earlier, more than calmly. Meanwhile, investors and traders are betting whether the pound will confirm the existence of the “April Rally” pattern or not. Recall that over the last 13 years (with the exception of the last year), the pound in April strengthened against the dollar. This was perhaps the strongest seasonal trend among the currencies of group 10.
The reason for the existence of such a pattern is rather prosaic: many British companies are transnational. Received dividends abroad, they transfer them home, that means, convert them into pounds. This model worked even during the global financial crisis of 2008. But last year, by the end of April, the pound fell against the dollar. The reason is clear - Brexit. At the moment, experts are puzzled if last year was an exception to the rule and the pound will rise again in April. Or Brexit broke the pattern and April is no longer an indication that the pound will grow.
Let’s back to yesterday's statistics. Industrial production in the US in March decreased by 0.1% (analysts had expected an increase of 0.2%). In general, this is another alarming signal for the US economy and the dollar in particular. It's going to be more interesting watching the statistics on retail sales in the United States on Thursday. If the data comes out weak, then sales of the dollar, apparently, cannot be avoided. Moreover, Charles Evans, the President, and CEO of the FRB of Chicago said that the scenario in which the Fed does not raise rates until 2020 is quite likely.
Another interesting news was the information from Reuters that some ECB politicians believe that the bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic because the weakness of economic growth in China and trade tensions persist. Although the information from Reuters is unofficial, the signal is negative for the euro both in terms of the state of the Eurozone economy and in terms of the fact that in such conditions it is not necessary to expect the ECB’s monetary policy to tighten in the foreseeable future.
Let’s talk about macroeconomic statistics. The most important data from China (GDP, industrial production and retail sales) have already been published. All data came out better than expected, which should reassure the markets.
In addition, the Eurozone and the UK inflation statistics will be published as well as Canada. It is also worth paying attention to data on the US trade balance.
Also on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to give a speech, that could trigger a surge of volatility in pound pairs.
As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets and keep on selling the Russian ruble.
EURNZD PossibilityExpecting 1.66 Soon, If momentum stay strong then can go even to 1.655 but afterward that it will start climbing .
ECB, EU summit and Brexit, Trump's threats and IMF outlookWednesday promises to be a difficult day for the euro and the pound. There are two extremely important events will take place today: the ECB meeting and emergency summit of EU leaders to consider UK request for further extension until 30 June, with the option of an earlier Brexit day if a deal can be agreed.
Let's start with the ECB meeting. Surprises are not expected by markets. The bet might be left unchanged. Everybody will be interested in details of the ECB long-term lending program. In general, we do not expect any bullish signals for the euro, but there should also be no reasons for its sales. In this regard, our position on the euro today is as follows: since the EURUSD is at the lower limit of the medium-term range, we give preference to buying with stops below 1.1170 and profit close to 1.1400.
The information that Trump is preparing to open up a new front in the trade wars could be the problem for the euro. This time he is going to attack Europe. The White House reported that they are considering to moves to impose tariffs on $11 Billion of EU Goods in response to Airbus subsidies, which was declared illegal by the World Trade Organization. The list of goods that come under attack includes not only airplanes and helicopters, but also products of the agro-industrial complex, in particular cheese and wine.
The EU emergency summit seems to be much less predictable by the results of the event and explosions of volatility in pound pairs by its results are very likely. April 12, the UK must leave the EU. Following yesterday's parliamentary vote, approval of the withdrawal agreement has not been given by the UK Parliament so it should be a “No-deal” Brexit. The option is unprofitable for both parties, so we believe that the summit is unlikely to end up being just shown to the UK at the door. This will definitely be a hit to the pound and in this case its fall will be rapid and strong.
Accordingly, the second alternative comes into play - to give the UK another chance. This is the most likely scenario. But he is also divided into alternatives. The first is that the EU satisfies May’s request and extends Brexit’s deadline until June. The second is that the EU is offering Britain a postponement for a long term (for example, a year). Since the initiative is on the EU side, it seems to us that the summit will end up with the EU’s agreement for a long delay. In general, both of these options are positive for the pound. So, as a basic plan for working with pound pairs for today is looking for points for its buying.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth outlook for the third time in a row. The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% this year. As expected, the economies of developed countries in 2019 will grow by 1.8%, and developing countries - by 4.4%. GDP of China and the United States should increase by 6.3% and 2.3%. This is another reason to pay attention to buying of safe-haven assets. Recall, our recommendation for buying gold on the intraday basis continues to be relevant.
XAUUSD - ANALYSISAs we look at gold this week i have marked out two directions based on probabilities of the market going up or down.
simple strategy - BREAK, RETEST & ENTER.
want to see if price is going to respect the downward channel, if price does break back down into the channel, we will be waiting for a retest back onto the line before i look at taking any short positions.
if price does not break back into the channel and simply bounces back off of this line then we will be looking at a buy towards 1297.000 level.
this week we will be intraday trading gold, end of week we will review what the market has done.
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EURUSD still upside target of 1.3100Our upside target of 1.3100 still remains, we have a potential harmonic formation to be formed. We can expect 1.1800 to be retested as outlined in our previous posts (A potential bullish harmonic formation to be formed with “D” lining up with 1.1800.) For those of you that haven't entered the long can look for entries around this region with bullish PA confirmation. I will be upload another analysis of the H1 timeframe to outline the potential bullish harmonic to be formed. I will relate the next post to this analysis.
