Get started

UK

USDCAD UPDATE 2 Our Short Setups still remain as explained in our related idea (See links below). However, this post is to explain how the stop loss can be extended to 1.35200 in case of high volatility on the back end of NFP. We will seek bearish PA confirmation around 1.33950 - 1.34500, ideally 1.3400. As this will probably be traded pre-NFP we need space for some volatility. Therefore, trade half the usual lot size and extend your stop loss to 1.35200. However, these points will be clarified as we get closer to NFP and on bearish Confirmation.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
Brexit, inversion of yield curve, new sanctions against RussiaLast week ended with the “accompaniment” of the UK news. Theresa May was still able to vote on her plan to leave the EU. However, it would be better if she did not do this, since she suffered a third defeat. In theory, this should have been the final vote. Since the UK was unable to reach an agreement last week, the postponement of Brexit until May 22 is not granted. Sum up the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. In case of a delay, it is necessary to participate in the European parliamentary elections on May 23. Meanwhile, The European Union is scheduled for an emergency summit on April 10. On Sunday, the British Prime Minister announced that she would again put her version of the agreement to a vote. This will be the fourth time (!). At the same time, she gave a none-too-subtle hint that if the deputies do not vote “for”, then early parliamentary elections will be called. This week might not be easy to the pound. Last week, the pound was naturally under pressure. However, in our opinion, the situation continues to evolve as it has been doing recently. There is an absolutely conscious inhibition of the process. Obviously, the UK will ask for a reprieve, and the EU will provide it. Our position is unchanged - the descents of the pound, we continue to use for his purchases and earnings. There's a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve among the analysts recently. Last week, the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds was equal to the yield on 10-year. This is a rather atypical phenomenon, often a sign of a future recession in the economy. So concern is growing. Against this background, we continue to believe that buying gold on the intraday basis and in the medium term is a good trading idea. About our trading ideas. Our recommendation on sales of the Russian ruble was just fine on Friday. We have repeatedly noted that the strengthening of the ruble is temporary, because it does not have “the ground”, and the ruble itself is vulnerable. It was confirmed clearly on Friday. New information on US sanctions brought down the ruble. We are talking about the second set of sanctions related to the Skripal case. According to Bloomberg, the sanctions include measures against the Russian banking sector. There is no chance to relax this week. A lot of static information led by statistics on the US labor market on Friday. Brexit news, new sanctions against Russia will not allow to relax. We will inform our readers about the biggest events.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD Is Severely Overpriced if UK Headed Toward No Deal BrexitWith a clear majority in the House of Commons against a no-deal Brexit, and with members of Parliament holding more votes on alternative plans on Monday, Mrs May asserted that the UK would have to find “an alternative way forward”. She also may attempt a fourth bid for the Commons to pass her bill. Meanwhile, trading of the pound on Friday faced significant volatility as price action swayed violently just to rest at where it started forming a long-legged doji for the day. If the customs union wins then May could run for this deal with the EU. She could also say no and then we have an election or a second referendum. Difficult to say, but this is the direction we are heading. The bottom line is that the trend of no deal Brexit and a customs union seems to be wedging together like a symmetrical triangle. Either way, this will have to break one way or the other. More words here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBPUSD, Technical & Fundamental SELL (updated) (upTechnical 1.There is a price channel (grey) which in my opinion it is about to be broken 2. The support trend line (green) within the price channel is been already broken and became resistance 3. Negative RSI divergence indicates change in trend direction 4. Target at 1.28, Pivot at 1.307 Fundamental 1. U.K faces the worst political crisis since 1940 2. Economical data worsen from date to date 3. Still all Brexit options open, no Brexit deal more likely 4. One trillion £ has been moved out fro the U.K. Over all, pound remains the best performing pair for 2019, for some reason no one knows, pound is been supported for long time despite the bad news. This time seems to be over, as investors do not believe any more in a smooth Brexit. So, overall, SELL.
Short
by sifneosFX
GBPUSD Technical & Fundamental SELLTechnical 1.There is a price channel (grey) which in my opinion it is about to be broken 2. The support trend line (green) within the price channel is been already broken and became resistance 3. Negative RSI divergence indicates change in trend direction 4. Target at 1.28, Pivot at 1.307 Fundamental 1. U.K faces the worst political crisis since 1940 2. Economical data worsen from date to date 3. Still all Brexit options open, no brexit deal more likely 4. One trillion £ has been moved out fro the U.K. Over all, pound remains the best performing pair for 2019, for some reason no one knows, pound is been supported for long time despite the bad news. This time seems to be over, as investors do not believe any more in a smooth Brexit. So, overall, SELL.
Short
by sifneosFX
Brexit has More Bad Outcomes Than Good Ones At This PointFrom the BBC an hour ago, "Wednesday saw Mr Bercow once more cite parliamentary precedent to rule that another vote could only take place if the proposal tabled by the government was "substantially different" from the previous one." Without PM May's deal, there is no obvious direction for Brexit to go forward with regarding any significant deal between the UK and EU. If Bercow does not let May put forth her deal again later this week, he may not let her put it up at all. In that event, the UK is headed towards a no deal which is still not priced into cable. Like I've said many times, I'm not all in short just yet, but my general view is that cable is way overpriced especially since there are many more bad outcomes than good ones at this point.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
The UK Won’t Sign the Divorce Papers, Pound Will SufferAn April 12th deadline is now looming above the heads of Europeans and the British as the UK find themselves situated as the estranged husband who refuses to sign the divorce papers. Right now there are six main scenarios: 1)Revoking Article 50 and cancelling Brexit 2)Another referendum 3)May’s deal plus a customs union 4)May’s deal plus both a customs union and single market access 5)A Canadian-style free trade agreement 6)Leaving the EU without a deal Beyond these six main scenarios, there are subplots being played out primarily including the 1 million person strong march over the weekend and most scandalously the claims that some members of May’s government are making a play against May to become Prime Minister. Meanwhile with the pound against the dollar, the currency pair endured the dreaded ‘death cross’ last week where the 50 day moving average crossed over the 200 day moving average indicating a technical signal for a downtrend. Overall, daily technicals like moving averages suggest we are trending up. This is the case. However, this currency pair HAS NOT priced in the chance of a no deal Brexit. This will be to the detriment of traders just looking at technicals despite how important they may be. For more analysis please check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Will Great Britain ever leave the European Union? Let's discuss A short rise before...  The price of the FTSE100 broke the resistance on the upside: now is destined to go to test the key level identified by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement place to 7340 points. From here the possibilities that continues upward past him and confirming a weekly close above are relatively low; it is more probable that, once it is brought close to that level, it reverses bringing itself again in area 7100 points. London: in or out ? The fundamental scenario remains unchanged: investors and markets are still trying to understand how the "Brexit" issue will develop, as for now it is not yet clear when and if Britain will actually leave the European Union. On Wednesday Prime Minister May will bring his agreement to the parliament: if he is rejected for the third time, there may be a scenario that seemed remote a few weeks month ago: the request by the EU to postpone this exit. To conclude, Theresa May said that if Parliament does not support the Brexit agreement, there is the possibility that Britain "will not leave the EU for many months, perhaps never". We will await Wednesday's developments.
OANDA:UK100GBPLong
by BFCMInvest
1
III (3i group) long Following a weekend stroll through the UK stocks that I watch III came to my attention, the stock has a solid base after a move up and has been struggling to break 965 since July 2017. Around May 2018 the stock did have a huge burst through the level but wasn’t able to maintain it for very long until the support broke it became resistance again. Since then the stock has fallen from the level multiple times without a successful break, so far this year III has performed very well and that has brought it back to the 965 level where the price began to consolidate. This level obviously holds massive selling pressure, but like a blocked tap the pressure to break through is mounting. I feel as though this set up has massive potential and a break of 965 could see us go through a sustained move higher. The plan with this stock is to play for a break of 965 using the high of a previous attempt to break through as entry, when the price breaks through I will use the PLOD as a stop loss. I will buy the stock in 3 separate positions so that I can trim on the way up to leave one position free to run and collect dividends if they’re available. I will trim the position at 980 and 990 which provide obvious areas of resistance both as large round numbers and from previous price action. Thanks Joe LSE:III
LSE:IIILong
by Joevose
BT shortSimilar to my last post BT has been having a horrible time and has been on a continuous slide since 2016, unfortunately for BT it seems as though they could be about to start another move down through the 213 level. Again similar to BA. we have a gap down which has been followed up by further weakness and then some consolidation at a level in this case support is 213. The last two trading days in BT have seen dojis with very little movement between their open and closes this is reflected by the 18.7% negative difference in the 10 day average volume vs the 3 month average indicating a period of calm while we decide where to go next. My entry stop will be at 212.99 on this set up with the stop loss at the high day previous to the break out candle when 213 goes. The next major support should be found at the round number for 210 where a third of the position will be trimmed as always leaving 2 thirds running to be decided after. Please let me know if you see this situation differently and message me with your views. Joe LSE:BT.A
LSE:BT.AShort
by Joevose
SGRO Long This week I will be keeping an eye on the UK based REIT SGRO, their main business is managing industrial storage units, the stock is within 3% of its all time highs and is consolidating nicely around the 662 level. The consolidation has been a bit all over the place for my liking and that skews the entry a little bit as I like to clear all previous highs with my entry to avoid running into previous resistance but the spike on the first of march would make the entry too high from the level. that being side the price is bunching up nicely under the level and on the weekly scale an inside weekly doji gives me the feeling that we could see some action within next weeks trading. My improvised entry would be 663.2 as this clears the attempt on the 30th of January but if you want a clear margin of safety in the trade then 6666.3 would be the stop entry. This stock is a relatively low beta at 0.76 (yahoo finance) which I think could help it out given the weakness lately in the FTSE 100, I hope you liked this idea, if you did be sure to comment what you like if not then that's welcome too. Happy trading. Joe
LSE:SGROLong
by Joevose
SELL YOUR HOUSE AND GO LONG hahaYou can see from our support line ( green line ) that this is a VERY strong level that price has bounced of many times, Price has also bounced off this level this week and we can see a run up to our resistance zone ( green box ) Of course surrounding Brexit and businesses not knowing how the deal or no deal will affect them and trading then you have to be cautious trading the FTSE 100 as this is comprised of 100 companies listed on the London stock exchange with the highest market capitalisation, So any laws that stop these businesses earning will drastically affect the FTSE 100 price. We suggest trading this with a very tight SL, but we can see this been a very nice opportunity to go long and make some decent money. p.s don't actually sell your house you moron ;p
TVC:UKXLong
by ApexFX_Pro
TSCO LongTSCO is also on my watch list for this week as it is currently attempting to take out the 230 level which has been resistance since October last year and before that was resistance turned support back in April 2018. TSCO has been getting super tight to this level and after a good sell-off from 230, the stock has put in three higher lows suggesting a buyers market. What I like most about this set up is how tight a risk profile we can get with today's price action a stop order will be placed above 7th of February 2019 high at 231.7 aiming for the path of least resistance for a move higher. The stock is also testing its 200 day MA which means that the name will be on a lot of institutional traders radars so if a meaningful break of this level occurs there could be some real buying power behind it. Feel free to pick this trade apart or tell me where you agree, happy trading. Joe LSE:TSCO
LSE:TSCOLong
by Joevose
BRBY Long I will be keeping a close eye on BRBY this week especially the 1980 level which has played a role as resistance since the level broke back in October of last year. The price has been tickling the level for around two weeks but never had the momentum to break through, after the huge sell off an bounce back we experienced last week you'd have to guess that most the seller/shorters either lost their shirt or lost interest as their positions reversed clearing the way for more buyers to break 1980. I will be placing a stop order above the high of the previous break out attempt at 1991 buying into a position divisible to three equal parts which will be trimmed at the overhead resistance points to leave one third running. I am aware that the large psychological number of 2000 hangs ominously over this current consolidation the more conservative trader may want to see how the level performs before entering but for me, I am happy to play through 1980. AS always feel free to let me know if you see things differently and if you want to see more UK based stock content be sure to follow me, happy trading. Joe LSE:BRBY
LSE:BRBYLong
by Joevose
Selling Cable with incoming Dollar strength A simple trade here from a technical sense as market has overpriced the odds of Brexit being good for the economy. We are selling the highs in Cable one more time. A departure from the EU is sending this currency one way, and one way only. On the USD side there is a lot of good news coming back in on the macro front and the FED will be questioned on hikes sooner or later. Expecting a move in Q3 so it's time to start pricing in more hikes on the dollar side and bad news on the UK side. Good luck everyone in this live
Short
by ridethepig
3
Bullish Cable againThe British pound is ending the month of February with a bullish move, up 0.50% after rumors of brexit delay in case a deal cannot be agreed on before end of March; offering some market relief and helping GBP/USD recovering almost all its February decline. Looking at the chart, the pair is trading above its main MAs which indicates positive momentum. Also broke a downward trend line capping upward movement since May. Plus, trade optimism between China and the US offered some more market relief. Technically: the trend is neutral to bullish - next resistance being 1.316 (Feb high, 240 Day SMA) , followed by 1.322 (Jan high, 100 Week SMA). Trade Safe.
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) Short PPB's investors haven't had much to laugh about this year, not even their comical television adds could cheer them up, i'm sorry to say that from the looks of the daily chart the stock could be in for some more pain soon. After a tremendous run in may the stock has seen a lot of downside until finally finding support at the 6000 level currently the price is having it's third attempt to break the support. In the run up to the last two tests of support the stock has put in lower highers which suggests that the sellers are fully in control of the stock, the last two trading days of last week posted bearish inside days suggesting some indecision in the stock indicating a potential move this week. I am inclined to go short in the name with a stop order at 5999 below support and a stop loss placed at the high of the day prior to the break out from the support. If you enjoyed this idea give me a follow there will be more to come and if you hated it please let me also, happy trading. Joe LSE:PPB
PShort
by Joevose
NG (National Grid) long LSE:NG. A stock I will be keeping a close eye on this week is NG or national Grid a ulisities giant with a market cap of 29 billion, it is the largest UK provider of energy and has a presence in the US market. NG has struggled since May to break the 864 level and is approaching that zone again, ten day volume is massively below its longer run three month average indicating that investors are on the sidelines. After three previous attempts at this level fourth time's the charm, however I would like to see some consolidation under the round number support before a break out on high volume. The game plan is to place a stop order at 864.1 sey for a breakout from this level, a proper stop loss can be determined after confirmation of the breakout. I hope you like this idea and as always feel free to pick it apart and tell me where i could be wrong, if you enjoy the content and wish to see more give me a follow any support you can offer would be appreciated happy trading. Joe
LSE:NG.Long
by Joevose