angus energy plc 1D LSE update on fundamentalsLSE:ANGS
Although price has been down last week, in general angs share price has been performing well, and the current drillings has been successfull. as we can see in the chart we are in a uptrend, rising wedge. i see a slow and steady rise this year. A good stock to sit back and let it work for you. JT LSE:ANGS
The calorific value fluctuates within a very narrow but very significant range,
From 01.10.2022 to the Present:
Min 40.33 on 07.10.2022 and Max 41.52 on 26/02/2023 and Mean 41.2170 so the gas quality is of a very good quality look at the Calorific Value Metrics since 03.04.2023 when the Drill for the sidetrack was successfully completed and a gas find confirmed,
During the clean up phase there fluctuations in Calorific Value closely resembled the clusters in early Q3 2022 i.e.Sept 2022 when the Saltfleetby gas supply from the first two wells was being cleaned and tested and consistent supply confirmed,
Now look at how the Calorific value has transitioned since 03.04.2023 and during the past week has steadied and moved closer and closer to the mean value, so normality in supply being restored have the kill fluids being with drawn form the gas supply,
Whilst the wells are distant the supply is being drawn from the same reservoir and because Gas is the least viscous state of matter there effects of working on one well would technically affect the Overall Calorific Value being drawn from the Gas Reservoir so either The Technical Expert at Angus Energy refutes my hypothesis or I believe in the teachings of my Chemistry & Physics masters at school regarding this subject matter,
Regarding Completion of the monthly Hedge it is simple at come stage during the Month of April 2023 there shall be an uplift in Gas being supplied to the grid which is being supplied to the National Grid,
The RNS of 03.04.2023 mentioned the supply was intended to be connected to the Grid during the Week of 07.04.2023 so I have used a simple weighted average calculation of number of days at approx 57,000 Therms and the Number of Days at 98,500 Therms
57,129.36 98,677.99 1.3636 *Current Co-efficient
15 15 30
856,940.40 1,480,170 2,337,110
The longer we go at approx 57,000 Therms the fewer days available at 98,677.99 and hence the lower the monthly mean supply hence there is approximately a financial cost of approximately GB£42,500 differential in supplying at the lower value and the higher per day ,
Hence I now strongly believe an official confirmation regarding connectivity it imminent and no doubt Shell are privy to the metrics during the clean up phase as they must be satisfied regarding purity of supply to the grid and that leads me to infer that Shell may be interested in Buying ANGUS Energy using the Gas and also using their expertise to optimalise the Storage Facilities before transitioning Saltfleetby to a Holding Facility for Carbon capture is is also being commented upon, source lse uk chat
UK
DXY 2nd AprilAfter reviewing the market trends over the past week, it appears that we are still anticipating a bullish shift to occur in the near future. We have already tapped into the lower swing zone from our breakout level, which signals a potential upward trend. However, for this bullish shift to materialize, we must break the previous high that we put in after the break of structure. Once this occurs, we can expect to see the price shift back into the higher swing move.
It is important to note that this process may take some time to fully play out, as market trends can be unpredictable. Nevertheless, keeping an eye on these trends gives us a clear idea of what kind of setups we can look for on our USD related pairs. By monitoring the market closely and making informed decisions based on the trends we observe, we can position ourselves to take advantage of potential bullish opportunities in the future.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
GBPUSD - Bear Play Hi everyone
We currently entering into a strong sellzone for Cable. Protective stops noted in the blue shaded area
Based on the 4hr movement - showed us strong bullish momentum. We had a market structure shift to the downside but stops are being targeted and raided.
strong believe price will start reaching for lower areas now - BEAR power
Target area
- 1.21790
- 1.21130
Stops
- 1.23100
I will update on this as the week plays out
Stay safe
Will the GCAD push to 1.35?I think price will be able to push to the 1.35 lvl as time goes on. The UK is struggling to keep its economy afloat while simultaneously the BOE is attempting to fight inflation. One or the other needs to happen and a soft landing is not going to happen, especially with double digit inflation. Canada's economy I think will be able to resist a recession. It may happen, but won't be as severe as other countries. Canada also has a trade surplus along with Australia. The BOC is holding on rate hikes but will raise rates if needed. Oil is pushing lower, but in the future, is likely to rise as OPEC+ looks to keep prices higher and the on going Russia/Ukraine issues. I think the move lower, will happen towards the end of the 2nd Quarter/beginning of the 3rd Quarter and last up until the end of the 4th Quarter or into next year. We seem to be in the eye of the storm, and there is something bound to set something off. Regardless though, how long can the UK economy hold on?
FTSE 100 Index Trending HigherFTSE 100 Index trending higher on the weekly chart; current price is above its 10 week moving average (bullish); both the 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators above zero (bullish); upside prospects for the short to medium term (5-49 days) spotted at 8,023 and 8,203, while downside price risk below 7,742 implies the end of the prevailing up-trend.
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
FTSE Broke from a range to the upside.Previous support located at 7950.
Previous resistance located at 8000.
The correction lower is assessed as being complete.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 8006 and 8024
UK100 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 7926 (stop at 7894)
Resistance: 800 / 8050 / 8100
Support: 7950 / 7900 / 7850
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EURGBP ShortThere’s been some decent swings in price lately. I believe the reason we witnessed such a dramatic rise and fall in price over the past two weeks was not so much due to euro strengthening over the pound, but because the pound weakened against the dollar more so than the euro. By this I mean that the pace of capital flight from pounds to dollars was more substantial than from euros to dollars. Due to uncertainties around US inflation data and interest rates It was only a matter of time before the latter caught up to the former which happened yesterday.
Obviously a lower inflation figure for the pound adds extra selling pressure for the UK but I believe that the EU and UK are largely in a similar situation. Granted the ECB is firm on its next rate rise but I’m comfortable with the risks from here on. Let’s not forget that the UK is still in double digit inflation so a minor tick down is not overly surprising to me.
Major central banks will have you believe that inflation is done, job finished. But I don’t buy it, not even close! But I guess we’ll see just how sticky our inflation problems are over the coming months.
As you can see from the chart, the price is currently moving within a large ascending triangle (WHITE) with moderate divergence between the price relative to the indicators which suggests weakness when compared to the volume, which is actually quite low I may add.
The price had a rejection of the ascending triangle support due to a cooler than expected inflation print. For this reason I believe that if the price can clear the 0.89 area, it will likely rise to the upper limits of the triangle (white) and rising channel (blue), with my POI being around the 0.8970-0.9050 are shown by the white circle. At which point I will be looking to sell this pair in anticipation of a move to the downside and continuing lower to 0.87’s.
If the the price struggles to clear the 0.89 area then I will wait for a lower price sell confirmation. If the fundamentals have a shock surprise in store then I will reassess the situation and position myself accordingly.
That being said, I believe this pair is still open to significant moves following US fundamentals as the US economy seems to still be running hot as can be seen from last months jobs report and today’s retail sales. Both coming in significantly higher than expected which will force Powells hand to turn up the dial on interest rates in a bid to calm inflation. As such, US data must be factored-in when deciding to trade this pair as recently, it is each currencies respective weakness to the dollar and not each other that seems to be the underlying theme.
POI - sell around 0.900 area
TP1 - 0.8770
TP2 - 0.8750
TP3 - 0.8720
If the price struggles to clear 0.89 (stranger things have happened) then i will likely wait for a clean break of the ascending triangle (white) before deciding to sell the pair.
I asses my SL based on risk factors. It is not a mechanical percentage calculation. As always this is just a basic overview of my opinion and is not a detailed analysis so please do your own analysis and always trade with caution.
FTSE Top?It looks like the FTSE has found a top. I'm expecting the price to 'Re-balance' the Daily Imbalance of last week before continuing trending lower.
I have set an alarm if to this BLUE AREA (Daily Imbalance).
Upside pressure for UK yields remains apparentRemember upside pressure for UK 10Y yield implies downside pressure still for UK gilts......
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FTSEFTSE 100
Clear trendline up, pattern formed - you could wait for daily close and see if this bearish formation comes into fluorescent.
Key an eye
1. Trendline and 2. The pull back reaction (Whos in control)
Trade Journal
UKX to 9090?FTSE100 (UK100, UK stocks index) been laggard for many years in comparison with many of it's peers. Now it seems the UKX will finally make new all-time high🍾 and will go even higher. I think we are in continuation move up after breaking out of the consolidation in form of triangle. Target @ 9090 being measured move - height of the triangle projected from midpoint of local range. Invalidation would be the local range low @ 4791 which is too far away meaning unfavourable reward risk ratio but this idea is rather about directional bias. Bear in mind this is monthly chart so the move will not happen over night obviously.
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FTSE 100 Cup & Handle at 15 min timeframe?FTSE 100 has recently experienced golden cross on 1-day charts. Resistance in 7600s was surprisingly easily bypassed Friday / Monday, and 7700+ was comfortably reached again post uneventful JP speech. Is this a bullish cup & handle on 15 minute, suggesting push towards 7800? Or will the FTSE face trouble with upcoming earnings this week, given last nights data outline sales haven’t outstripped inflation. Technicals and fundamentals appear divergent, as do RSI / price. Extensive resistance exists ~7775-7800, and above too where ATH sits. Is a turnaround nigh, or a new ATH. Thoughts?
Pound stronger, long shadow to sup plus 0,764 fibo crossedAfter a downtrend the candles made a long shadow trying to catch the support and has finished the hour in a bullish candle followed by bullish candles
The shadows have already crossed the fibo 76,4%, and seems the orange line will be tested again as a resistance
FTSE going to beat major indices and close the year in gains?The FTSE100 index (FTSE100) has resumed its bullish trend since the October 13 bottom after hitting both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 20. In fact, against all odds during this inflation crisis and in contrast to its heavy stock index counterparts, it is about to close the year in gains (if it stays above the 7420 level this week).
Practically, the index has been within a huge Rectangle pattern in 2022, ranging within 7700 and 6710. If that's not impressive enough, it just completed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame (when the 1D MA50 crosses above the 1D MA200), which is technically a bullish formation. Last time we saw this pattern was on December 02 2020, as the index was recovering from the COVID crash globally. The price made a Low exactly at the time of the Golden Cross and started a very sustainable rise pattern.
What adds more weight to a bullish continuation, is the fact that the RSI on the 1W time-frame tested and held the former Lower Highs trend-line that was in effect through the majority of 2022.
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Short position for EURGBP + daily resistanceThe orange line is a daily resistance that I use a long time ago.
As we can see RSI already crossed the 50, after a overbought zone, together with MACD we can see after the RSI change the direction MACD had crossed the signal line and also changed it.
And joining these indicators we've the BB where the candles had already crossed the MA, and the BB lower line is moving away from upper line, showing us a great continuation of the downtrend
Analysis of the 4H time-frame is the same, all the indicators are moving in the same direction as 1H tf
GBP/USD SELL PIB GBP AND USD
The GBP/USD pair is positioning itself for potential intraday sales, waiting for the GDP data from the United Kingdom, which is in 5 minutes, and from the United States, which is in 6 hours and 35 minutes. GBP/USD as the UK doesn't seem to be having its best economic moment and investors prefer the dollar over the pound in recent months.
FTSE100 - Further downside is expected UK100 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 7425 (stop at 7500)
Previous support located at 7300. Previous resistance located at 7400. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 7425, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 7300 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 7250 and 7200
Resistance: 7400 / 7425 / 7500
Support: 7300 / 7250 / 7200
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