FTSE Elliott Wave View: Calling For Another Leg LowerHello Traders,
FTSE short-term Elliott Wave view suggests that the bounce to 7904.97 high on 5/22/18 peak ended in black wave ((1)).
Below from there, the index is doing a double correction lower in blue (W)-(X) to correct cycle from 3/23/18 low. Down from 7904.97 high, the decline to 7610.66 low ended the first leg of the pullback in blue wave (W) at 05/29/18 low (7609.7). The internals of blue wave (W) unfolded as an Elliott Wave Zigzag structure where red wave A ended at 7703.26, red wave B ended at 7738.46, and red wave C of (W) ended at 7609.7 low.
Up from there, the bounce to 7793.45 high ended the correction against 5/22/2018 cycle in blue wave (X).
The internals of blue wave (X) unfolded as double three structure where red wave W ended at 7772.12, red wave X ended at 7637.52 and red wave Y of the blue wave (X) ended at 7793.38.
Then down from there, the index has made a new low below blue wave (W) at 7610.66 low confirming that the next extension lower within blue wave ( Y ) of ((2)) has started.
While FTSE100 stays below 7793.38 high, any pullbacks higher is expected to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings for another leg lower towards the areas of 7496.62 – 7426.56, which is equal legs - 1.236 extension area of blue ( W ) - ( X ) to complete black wave ((2)) correction.
Once the equal legs - 1.236 extension area of blue ( W ) - ( X ) reached, the index is expected to find buyers either for a new high or for 3 wave bounce at least. We don’t like selling it in the proposed pullback as the right side remains to the upside in the sequences of 3-7-11 swings
UK
Cable's out.Weekly chart is showing us multiple confirmations for a continuation to the downside.
PA showing a double top at the 1.40 price level, suggesting a strong point of previous support before breaking through mid 2016, has now turned resistance.
A break below the neckline and the EMA band came in conjunction with the MACD sell signal.
There's a range between approximately 1.32 and 1.35 on the daily chart I'm watching and the BoE rate announcement this upcoming week should make this an interesting play.
A break below the range and I see price coming down to the 1.2750 level next.
UKOIL approaching support, potential bounce!UKOIL is approaching its support at 75.01 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially rise to its resistance at 78.14 (100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.8% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
Thomas Cook reached a 3 year peak..then what?Thomas Cook plc 5 days ago reached a 3 year peak. It then flirted with that high for a few more days until it dropped today.
There was a warning for traders a couple of days back that a short movement was coming.
Dissecting the "Hard" Brexit shock in SterlingThis part of the Brexit leg is easier to track in Sterling, as FTSE continues enjoying the news of no hikes and more QE guaranteed till the Brexit finish line.
From a Political perspective:
=> The odds of T.May remaining as prime minister are diminishing by the minute. The latest immigration scandal has her fingerprints all over the trail, not sure she will survive this one.
=> Sajid Javid the Euroskeptic has just been appointed as Home Secretary. This increases further the odds of a Harder Brexit as Sajid has been clearly in favour of leaving the customs union.
From a Fundamental perspective:
=> Macro numbers are very very soft in almost all sectors and continue to disappoint. The latest GDP read was atrocious and
=> Inflation flopping again which is sending loud messages to the BOE that even hikes wont save this one.
From a Technical perspective:
=> We have been stuck in the wide Brexit range with the avalanche now starting to form after showing exhaustion at the widely watched 78.6% of the Brexit move so far.
=> The only level in play here is 1.371x which unlocks the bottom of the wide range towards our targets of 1.27 and 1.21.
=> Expecting a fast move towards 1.33 from here which will finish the current leg up, followed by a pullback towards the 1.371x to mark the top, and then down we go.
The week that´s been (and the coming up) $GBPUSDThis last week the one of the major pair in the FX market had mixed behaviours due to the macroeconomic releases , the turmoil into the tory´s party, and the Brexit deal has been the mainly reasons.
The currency opened at $1.4004 and is closing in $1.3779 (-1.63% )
The week ahead the pound could against to fall given that the Tuesday it will be releasing the Manufacturing PMI of April (Pre:55.1, For:54.8), the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Pre:59.3, For:58.4). Perhaps the Construction PMI (For:50.4 ; 3.4 points more higher than the previous) and the Services PMI (For:53.5) boost the Pound for a few hours while the price come back to their bearish trend.
PD: The long position (2) (3) and (4) are possible entry points due their support prices based in technical analysis.
UKOIL's potential breakout!UKOIL could potentially be trading in a rising wedge where if it breaks past its first support at 73.25 (100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support), it could trigger a move downwards to its next support at 70.95 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (21, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 98% where a potential reversal may occur.
FTSE 100 Interesting movementI do not trade this, neither I'm keen on it but looks interesting after a long way down, till where? perhaps boxes are the answer.
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Cable GBP/USD Breaks Uptrend**TRADE ALERT** SELL GBPUSD -0.41% at 1.39772 S/L 1.4190. Not for the faint hearted as Brexit talks makes this a lively pair but with the long uptrend breaking together with negative momentum looks a decent trade for a downside move. Recent dovish comments from the Bank of England's Carney also supporting this bearish set up.
Final pushA final upward push in price into the PRZ of the completed bearish Gartley on the Weekly chart could signal the end of the corrective sequence. Confluence with the AB:CD pattern on the daily TF, and the 1.8500 quarter point help make the case for a reversal.
If BoE decide to leave interest rates unchanged this May, it could trigger the reversal. I'm sitting on my hands on this pair until the intra day charts signal a clear reversal pattern.
The Week aheadThe Major pair currencie GPBUSD is breaking their resistance price. It will expect that the next week with the positive figures in Retail Sales (MoM) in USA and the increasing in the Average Earning Index + Bonus in the UK, the $GBPUSD begins in the 1.43 path.
Once the price has corrected, the CPI in UK 2.7% (Forecast) will push down the price until the second support price.(Yellow line (more or less 50% of Fibonacci retracement))
PD: THE XABCD PATTERN is beginning to create, be careful!
Short positionThis is simple, the dollar is rally against their major pairs counterparts so once the price have achieved the first R(1) it will fall until the green line (50% of Fibonacci retracement) then if the price still falling, the most probably is that the price go ahead until the blue line (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement)
Besides the economic calendar for the week ahead it will be publishing the Core Retail Sales (MoM) (March) and the Retail Sales (YoY) with 0.4 % and 1.3% respectively (these figures is less than expected for the market)