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GBPUSD decreased 0.0024 or 0.19%Overnight data showed that UK’s Rightmove house prices rose on a monthly basis in April. The pair witnessed a high of 1.2832 and a low of 1.2772 during the session. GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2903 temporary top. With 1.2614 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.2871 will target 161.8% retracement at 1.3184. Still, price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a correction. Hence we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3444 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2614 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2365 support first.
by Jadtecnic
UK FTSE100 coming under pressureThe anticipated pullback is unfolding, with the UK FTSE100 Index falling sharply to the 7093.57 low of February. A short-term bounce is possible, as oversold daily studies unwind. Weakening momentum studies and the bearish Tension Indicator (not shown) should limit scope. In the coming weeks, further downside tests are looked for, as investors adopt a cautious stance. A break below 7093.57 will target psychological support at 7000 and the 6972.20 Fibonacci retracement. Still lower is the 6860 Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is lowered to the 7255.78 break level from 27 March, and should cap any immediate bounce as investor sentiment weakens. If broken, however, focus will turn back to critical resistance at the 7447 high of March. An unexpected break above here would delay lower levels, but should find difficulty clearing the 7500/11 barrier as background readings also begin to turn down. The full report, covering the US, UK, Germany, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong and China indexes can be found at our website.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
Global Equity Risks Increasing In The Coming MonthsA more cautious tone is appearing across global equity markets. Further gains to prove increasingly difficult to maintain. China poised to break higher? Global equity markets remain in their dominant bull trends. Investor portfolios are overweight and investor sentiment is positive. However, warning signals are now appearing, suggesting further gains are likely to prove increasingly difficult to maintain. Geopolitical risks are growing – for example, heightened tensions in the Middle East and increasingly strained rhetoric between the US and North Korea. Against this backdrop, the Volatility Index, VIX, which is a measurement of market volatility, is showing signs of a trend change. Since August 2015, the Volatility Index has been falling steadily. This reduction in volatility has helped to quell market fears and increased investor confidence. Their portfolios have thus been balanced around a ‘risk-on’ approach – overweight equities. Recent political developments are now being reflected in the VIX, as prices begin to trade higher from historic supports. Positive divergence in rising momentum studies and steady improvement in the proprietary Tension Indicator highlight potential for a price bounce into the coming months. As the VIX trades higher, volatility increases and investors become more cautious. This will lead to adjustments in portfolio equities, and a corrective pullback in equity prices. We thus maintain a cautious stance to US equities and expect further gains will prove increasingly difficult to maintain. The UK FTSE100 Index is also being driven by investor insecurity. Following the UK prime minister’s shock announcement of a snap General Election in June of this year, the FTSE100 has fallen sharply from historic highs. This sharp pullback is helping to unwind overbought momentum studies, and is expected to keep prices under pressure into the coming months. A break below 7000 would not do too much damage to the dominant bull trend. However, a close below the 6675/80 lows of November-December 2016 would increase downside risks, and lead to renewed portfolio reduction. Against this gradually deteriorating backdrop, European bourses are also coming under pressure. The European EuroStoxx50 Index and the German DAX Index are expected to turn away from current highs. In Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is also vulnerable to a pullback. The China Composite Index, however, is showing signs of stabilisation within the prolonged consolidation pattern. Improving studies highlight potential for a break above critical resistance at the 3285, (61.8%) Fibonacci retracement of the 2015-2016 fall and 3301.66 high of November 2016. Subsequent gains would confirm continuation of the broad 2016 rally and turn investors outright bullish.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
EURGBP H&S . Prepare your shorts!To me this is just perfect. I had this pitchfork in my graphs for more than a year and it has been very accurate. Break the Pitchfork and complete the Head and shoulders pattern and our target is back to 0.76. All the read lines from the peaks to the baseline are copied and pasted. Only exception is the last right small peak that was a bit shorter! You can see the two peaks on each side as one shoulder each, peaks closer to the head are higher than the ones further from the head. The also have the same length, despite the right one taking a bit longer to play out.
Short
by BitcoinMacro
GBP/USD poised for further gains in the coming weeksGBP/USD continues to extend gains. Focus is now on the 1.2706 0.77% high of February, with rising momentum studies and the improving Tension Indicator (not shown) anticipating a further break towards critical resistance at the 1.2775 high of December. A later close above here will confirm a significant rally, as the October 2016 bull trend gains traction and investors adopt an outright bullish stance Congestion around 1.3000 will then attract. Support is raised to the 1.2375 low of 29 March. Any break beneath here should stabilise above the 1.2109 low of 14 March. Still further slippage, however, would delay higher levels and put focus back on critical support at the 1.1987 -3.75% low of January.
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
UK FTSE remains heavy at current levelsThe UK FTSE100 Index is finding difficulty maintaining higher levels as negative divergence unfolds on weakening momentum studies. The Tension Indicator (not shown) is also showing signs of negative divergence as it, too, turns down. Investors are expected to continue reducing positions. A break below the 7255.78 low of 27 March is highlighted, with the 7192.94 low of 24 February to then attract. Further slippage will open up critical support at the 7093.57 low of February. A break beneath here would turn investor sentiment outright bearish, and confirm a more significant bear trend as the fall from the 7447 high of March gains traction. An unexpected break above 7447 would delay lower levels, but should find difficulty clearing the 7500/11 barrier.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
GBPUSD may extend lower?Good evening Trader, Today we want to share with you the FX:GBPUSD as it seems to react at current level. As market moved higher towards current major reaction zone, market may reacts and extend lower at current trading level. Tomorrow we will expect the UK retail sales which are expected to be higher than previous reading (0.4% vs. -0.3%). If you consider of taking a trade within the GBPUSD please regard this event risk at 09:30GMT. If outcome will be worse than expected this would give the market a fundamental kick. Additionally, Jennet Yellen will speak tomorrow which could lead to some extend of volatility around market. Looking at our inter market indication, we see some movements around our midline, as it seems that investors take their profits from last long move. This could initiate a further extension to the downside towards 1.22 again. If market shows confirmation in lower timeframes, we might take a short. As always trade with care. We wish you much success. Cheers
Short
by secrets2trade
UK FTSE100 coming under selling pressureThe UK FTSE100 Index remains strong, but gains are expected to continue to prove difficult to maintain. Overbought studies and negative divergence on the bearish Tension Indicator (not shown) are adding pressure to bullish sentiment, with any initial tests of the 7500/11 barrier to prove difficult to sustain. Risk/reward is for a short-term corrective pullback, but improving background studies should limit downside tests. Support is at congestion around 7350 and extends to the 7263.62 low of 9 March. Any deeper reactions need to stabilise above the 7192.94 low of 24 February to keep bullish sentiment intact. A close beneath here, if seen, would add extra pressure to price action and open up critical support at the 7093.57 low of February.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
UK FTSE100 to find difficulty sustaining further gainsThe UK FTSE100 Index is regaining higher levels. Prices have posted a close above the 7354.14 high of January, suggesting potential for further gains towards the 7465, (38.2%) Fibonacci projection of the november-January rally. However, studies remain mixed and are beginning to show negative divergence, highlighting continued profit-taking pressure and risk of a corrective pullback. A close below the 7192.94 low of 24 February would add pressure to price action, but a further close below the 7093.57 low of February is needed to turn sentiment negative, and confirm a deeper, more significant fall. A close above psychological resistance at 7500 would further improve price action, as investors continue to increase exposure to UK equities.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
GBPUSD Next Short Opportunity?Hello Traders, Today we will share with you guys the FX_IDC:GBPUSD as it seems to show soon further depreciation towards 1.21. However, it currently seems that we see more inflow of captial as the USD as a whole lost some strengths after Yellen speech on Friday. Market will very closely watch next weeks NFP on Friday next week as key driver for March rate hike. This could be decisive if we see further upwards correction or a turning towards heading south again. Supported by a significant intermarket sign, which points a potential inflow of capital currently! This may underline this setup as it seems that market will correct a little further to the upside. Our intermarket analysis always helps us time our trades better. We see a good timing of a potential short trade as soon as our indication hit outflow levels again. Our measurement is currently the ratio of the GBPUSD vs. INDEX:FTSE and the GBPUSD vs. Bonds. Our inter-markets indication gave good accuracy in the past for timing our trades at price relevant levels. We will be looking for interesting entry levels and keep you updated once we see interesting turning points. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. Cheers, Secrets2Trade
Short
by secrets2trade