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GBPUSD: Waiting and watching closelyGBPUSD is really interesting here, with potential upside, together with the dollar, if Brexit ends up being a positive in the long term. It has a lot of shock value, and I'd like to play it like a contrarian once viable. Right now, I think we can have a repeat of the 2009 bottom, and a big sideways range, but first we could see a rapid short squeeze rally, and a retest of the Brexit day range, or even the top of that day's range. I'm looking to go long on dips, for the most part, and perhaps look to short EURGBP when viable, or long GBPCHF. If we do get this scenario, we could see a massive rally shortly after the Brexit votes are out of the way. Lots of potential volatility revolving around French elections and other developments in Europe as well, so I'm watching with keen interest. The daily chart has a downtrend and two potential targets, Range Movement is in a strong downtrend, but also suggests sentiment is at an extreme, in speculative bearishness, so, we could see a rapid squeeze of the shorts soon. I'm vigilant, and monitoring the daily developments to fade the extremes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
UK FTSE100 gains to prove difficult to sustainThe UK FTSE100 Index is extending the bounce from the 7093.57 low of 2 February. Rising daily studies suggest further short-term gains, but falling weekly stochastics and a weakening Tension Indicator (not shown) suggest any immediate tests of critical resistance at the 7354.15 high of January should be treated with caution. In the coming weeks, risk/reward points to a corrective pullback, with a close below 7093.57 opening up the 7016.50, (50%) Fibonacci retracement of the December-January rally and congestion around 7000. A further break would turn investors neutral once again, as deeper reactions target the 6936.75, (61.8%) Fibonacci retracement. An unexpected close above 7354.15 is needed to negate downside tests, and confirm continuation of the broad 2016 rally towards the 7395 Fibonacci projection.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
GBPUSD POSSIBLE SETUPS As you could see 1.24050 is holding as key support level. We have strong bullish candlesticks sitting on the 200 EMA (Magnetic Support) presented on the 4 Hour timeframe. The UK government is confident with brexit. We can possibly see price reach 1.2700. Our long entries will be triggered on the break above the trendline and the red dashed level (1.25400); entries will be confirmed on bullish PA. If however, the charts project strong bearish PA at this level we may consider setting up a short setup. Our longer term trade setup will be the possible short setup around 1.2700 to our downside targets outlined, 1.23500, 1.22500 then possibly 1.2000. However, the short setup will also be confirmed on bearish PA. Our stops will be places above the Weekly/Daily Resistance zone around 1.29450. ***TRADE AT OWN RISK***
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
UK FTSE coming under profit-taking pressureFTSE has failed to maintain the test of the 7340, (150%) projection of the October-November fall, with prices falling sharply from 7354.15. A corrective bounce is currently developing from above the 7130~ high of October 2016, but falling stochastics and weakening investor sentiment are expected to limit upside tests. In the coming weeks, further losses are looked for, as profit-taking pressure increases, with a break below 7130~ targeting the 7095, (38.2%) retracement of the October-January rally. Still lower is congestion around 7000. An unexpected close above the 7354.15 high of 16 January is needed to negate downside tests, and confirm continuation of the broad 2016 rally towards the 7395 projection.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
UK oil 2017: week5Well last week went for the majority as I expected however on friday the price forgot to lift of to my target area of 60. As it became clear we are still really stuck in the triangle (see yellow lines). We will have to wait which side we break. One way to look at it is to look at the volumes over the last period. You can see that the price did not move that much but in terms of volume the interest were bigger when the price went down. This can be visualized in the OBV indicator. Expect a break out of the triangle this coming week. Gradually a picture is emerging that seems to suggest we really needs to fresh news / re-inforcements for a new push to the upside.
FX:UKOIL
by Jan_WillemDe_Korver
Cautiously long the PoundThe pound is back on the bull trend, after it broke all major resistance apart from the 1.267 one, after it filled its 1.5% gap. Not breaking that resistance, being overbought, with declining volume and with big gap from the Moving average, my only potentially good trade would be to go long around 1.256 with a 2:1 R/R. Good news came out of the UK this week, but there is a lot more to come both from the UK and US next week, which will probably create a lot of volatility. Also, the US dollar is getting close to strong support and looks like it might reverse to the upside, taking away all Pound bullishness.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
UK oil 2017: week 4last week I mentioned that we reached a TD sequential count of 13 and that the money inflow indicator was reading low figures and that those elements initiated a buy with my program. Furthermore, last week, it was clear that the first couple of days were likely to trade down. Well the price followed neatly these predictions. If it continues to do so we should go up from here. Stay vigilant at the yellow indicated trend line and remember; usually Mondays tend to sell off. For this week I plotted below the dollar index. A stronger dollar should, if all other elements stay constant, translate in lower oil prices. However the last couple of weeks the dollar is actually getting slightly weaker, but oil price did not responded by going up (I think they even went slightly down) yet another small indication that we are probably not going to see a lot of up movement in the short term: It seems we are getting more and more sensitive to negative news. A small prediction for week 4 then: Some selling on Monday then further up to the yellow line, again a day down, and then finally either end of the week or it will be delayed till next week.
FX:UKOIL
by Jan_WillemDe_Korver
FTSE 100 - Short term sellSince the vote on Brexit, the path taken by the index is fairly obivous. The impulsion started at the end of June then is followed a period of consolidation from beginning of August until the end of 2016. The new year started with a serie of new highs when the index reached 7341 The daily graph shows some sign of a reversal with a recent cross of the MACD, a momentum about to go into negative territry and a clear downtrend on the RSI. These indications open the way for a short term downtrend. This feeling is confirmed by the weekly chart, showing a nearly perfect Marubozu, sign of a reversal in investors' mind and displaying an obvious sellers' dominance. - Short term, close long or open short to get the opportunity of the index going down until its trend (or 50) near the 7,000 mark - Mid to Long term, the uptrend still prevails. - A break below the 7,000 points would confirm the short term short position and initiate a short position. - On the contrary, a rebound would be a good entry point for a long position
FX:UK100Short
by gbattini_STA
We remain cautious of further FTSE gainsFTSE continues to strengthen, with the bounce from the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November posting new highs to pressure the 7340, (150%) projection of the October-November fall. Continuation to the 7395.00 projection cannot be ruled out, but profit-taking risks are increasing at higher levels, as studies remain mature. In the coming weeks, profit-taking risks are highlighted, but downside tests should remain limited as background studies improve and investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy. Support is raised to the 7210 break level, but a close below the 7130~ high of October 2016 is needed to add weight to prices and turn investors cautious. A further close below congestion around 7000, however, will open up the 6875.40 low of 12 December as investors subsequently move to a negative stance.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
UK oil week 3Hard to make up my mind this week. There are two indications that lead me to think that we could see more upward movement of the price: 1. One can see that the money inflow index over the last 15 days is reading below 30 indicating that the selling pressure dissipated. 2. The famous count 13 is reached which according to Tom demark indicates that we are likely to try another upward move. Still..the 13 is not reached after a nice downtrend but the couting continues because the sequential was not negated by a TD sel set up. 3. we came very close to the black resistance line I draw 2 weeks ago. Close but not actually going through, so stay careful! THese 3 factors below triggered an automated buy (see graph). Target should be around 3 to 4 dollars up from a few days ago. However as I write this I looked at the hourly Uk oil price and there it seems to me that in the most likely situation we have not overcome the downward pointing trend line. It seems likely to me that in the first part of the week we are probably still to see some downward movement of the price before we go up. A very possible scernario would be: down for first 2 days or so possible until we reach the blue resistance area and then up again. Let's wait and see!
FX:UKOIL
by Jan_WillemDe_Korver
FTSE 100 - watch out for bearish divergence on 4-hour chart The RSI is hovering in the overbought territory, however, the bullish momentum is very strong and it would take more than just overbought RSI to trigger a correction. A potential bearish price RSI divergence could yield a corrective move to 7122 levels. Taking note of the critical levels on the lower side is very easy when the index is at record highs. However, the challenge is here to spot key levels in the uncharted territory. Resistance - 7345 (red trend line)
TVC:UKX
by TipTVFinance
FTSE gains to prove progressively more difficult to maintainFTSE continues to strengthen, with the bounce from the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November posting new highs above the psychological 7200 level at 7211.96. Continuation to the 7236.25 projection is highlighted, but further gains are expected to prove progressively more difficult to maintain, as studies begin to mature. In the coming weeks, profit-taking risks are highlighted, but improving background studies should limit downside tests, as investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy. Support is at congestion around 7000 with any break turning investors cautious once again as subsequent focus turns to the 6875.40 low of 12 December. Further slippage below 6800 will add further weight to sentiment as critical support at 6655/75 then comes into view.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
2
AUDUSD SKACAPITALIm already short on this, however, as seen on the chart I believe the outlook is still short. Only longs would be analysed on the break above the trend line. Our longer term target would be 0.7000-06900. However, as you could see we have multi trade setups. They are just their to remind me of potential entries (adding on to my trades). Once each target has been met price action must be analysed. The longer term trade setup, ideal stop would be 0.74300 to cut out fundamental manipulation. However, i would like to be out of the trade if the trend line is breached, ill look for a re entry if my trade is stopped out by a false movement. Please remember, this is just a forecast and money management is key.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94