UK
UK FTSE coming under profit-taking pressureFTSE has failed to maintain the test of the 7340, (150%) projection of the October-November fall, with prices falling sharply from 7354.15. A corrective bounce is currently developing from above the 7130~ high of October 2016, but falling stochastics and weakening investor sentiment are expected to limit upside tests.
In the coming weeks, further losses are looked for, as profit-taking pressure increases, with a break below 7130~ targeting the 7095, (38.2%) retracement of the October-January rally. Still lower is congestion around 7000.
An unexpected close above the 7354.15 high of 16 January is needed to negate downside tests, and confirm continuation of the broad 2016 rally towards the 7395 projection.
UK oil 2017: week5Well last week went for the majority as I expected however on friday the price forgot to lift of to my target area of 60.
As it became clear we are still really stuck in the triangle (see yellow lines). We will have to wait which side we break. One way to look at it is to look at the volumes over the last period.
You can see that the price did not move that much but in terms of volume the interest were bigger when the price went down. This can be visualized in the OBV indicator.
Expect a break out of the triangle this coming week. Gradually a picture is emerging that seems to suggest we really needs to fresh news / re-inforcements for a new push to the upside.
Cautiously long the PoundThe pound is back on the bull trend, after it broke all major resistance apart from the 1.267 one, after it filled its 1.5% gap.
Not breaking that resistance, being overbought, with declining volume and with big gap from the Moving average, my only potentially good trade would be to go long around 1.256 with a 2:1 R/R.
Good news came out of the UK this week, but there is a lot more to come both from the UK and US next week, which will probably create a lot of volatility.
Also, the US dollar is getting close to strong support and looks like it might reverse to the upside, taking away all Pound bullishness.
High Volatility Warning for GBP Pound.In case you haven't already heard, there is the UK supreme court decision for Brexit coming up in a few hours. There could be potential volatile whipsaw effect. Best to close positions, watch and stay out. Remember to let market settle for a couple of hours before getting back in.
Good luck everyone.
Randgold Resources – More gains above 6945The short-term moving averages – 5-DMA & 10-DMA –have topped out, which suggests the bulls need to take out the resistance at 6945 soon else a bearish crossover could yield a correction to 6500 levels.
Nevertheless, the dips could be bought into as the daily chart shows a bullish break from the falling channel.
UK oil 2017: week 4last week I mentioned that we reached a TD sequential count of 13 and that the money inflow indicator was reading low figures and that those elements initiated a buy with my program. Furthermore, last week, it was clear that the first couple of days were likely to trade down.
Well the price followed neatly these predictions. If it continues to do so we should go up from here. Stay vigilant at the yellow indicated trend line and remember; usually Mondays tend to sell off.
For this week I plotted below the dollar index. A stronger dollar should, if all other elements stay constant, translate in lower oil prices. However the last couple of weeks the dollar is actually getting slightly weaker, but oil price did not responded by going up (I think they even went slightly down) yet another small indication that we are probably not going to see a lot of up movement in the short term: It seems we are getting more and more sensitive to negative news.
A small prediction for week 4 then: Some selling on Monday then further up to the yellow line, again a day down, and then finally either end of the week or it will be delayed till next week.
FTSE 100 - Short term sellSince the vote on Brexit, the path taken by the index is fairly obivous. The impulsion started at the end of June then is followed a period of consolidation from beginning of August until the end of 2016.
The new year started with a serie of new highs when the index reached 7341
The daily graph shows some sign of a reversal with a recent cross of the MACD, a momentum about to go into negative territry and a clear downtrend on the RSI. These indications open the way for a short term downtrend.
This feeling is confirmed by the weekly chart, showing a nearly perfect Marubozu, sign of a reversal in investors' mind and displaying an obvious sellers' dominance.
- Short term, close long or open short to get the opportunity of the index going down until its trend (or 50) near the 7,000 mark
- Mid to Long term, the uptrend still prevails.
- A break below the 7,000 points would confirm the short term short position and initiate a short position.
- On the contrary, a rebound would be a good entry point for a long position
We remain cautious of further FTSE gainsFTSE continues to strengthen, with the bounce from the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November posting new highs to pressure the 7340, (150%) projection of the October-November fall.
Continuation to the 7395.00 projection cannot be ruled out, but profit-taking risks are increasing at higher levels, as studies remain mature. In the coming weeks, profit-taking risks are highlighted, but downside tests should remain limited as background studies improve and investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy.
Support is raised to the 7210 break level, but a close below the 7130~ high of October 2016 is needed to add weight to prices and turn investors cautious. A further close below congestion around 7000, however, will open up the 6875.40 low of 12 December as investors subsequently move to a negative stance.
UK oil week 3Hard to make up my mind this week. There are two indications that lead me to think that we could see more upward movement of the price:
1. One can see that the money inflow index over the last 15 days is reading below 30 indicating that the selling pressure dissipated.
2. The famous count 13 is reached which according to Tom demark indicates that we are likely to try another upward move. Still..the 13 is not reached after a nice downtrend but the couting continues because the sequential was not negated by a TD sel set up.
3. we came very close to the black resistance line I draw 2 weeks ago. Close but not actually going through, so stay careful!
THese 3 factors below triggered an automated buy (see graph). Target should be around 3 to 4 dollars up from a few days ago.
However as I write this I looked at the hourly Uk oil price and there it seems to me that in the most likely situation we have not overcome the downward pointing trend line. It seems likely to me that in the first part of the week we are probably still to see some downward movement of the price before we go up.
A very possible scernario would be: down for first 2 days or so possible until we reach the blue resistance area and then up again. Let's wait and see!
FTSE 100 - watch out for bearish divergence on 4-hour chart The RSI is hovering in the overbought territory, however, the bullish momentum is very strong and it would take more than just overbought RSI to trigger a correction.
A potential bearish price RSI divergence could yield a corrective move to 7122 levels.
Taking note of the critical levels on the lower side is very easy when the index is at record highs. However, the challenge is here to spot key levels in the uncharted territory.
Resistance - 7345 (red trend line)
Lloyds Bank – Bulls score another brownie pointFirst it was the bullish price RSI divergence and now we have a confirmation of the breach of the falling trend line on the weekly chart. The weekly 50-MA is bottoming out as well.
The stock appears on track to test 70.00 levels. Bullish invalidation is seen only if the stock closes on Friday below the weekly 50-MA level of 61.53.
RBS potential to reach 99$ price areaFor your long swing account. You will have many opportunities to add more to the trade so still once reaching 1:1-or-more ratio remember to consider taking profits to remove your risk.
FTSE gains to prove progressively more difficult to maintainFTSE continues to strengthen, with the bounce from the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November posting new highs above the psychological 7200 level at 7211.96.
Continuation to the 7236.25 projection is highlighted, but further gains are expected to prove progressively more difficult to maintain, as studies begin to mature. In the coming weeks, profit-taking risks are highlighted, but improving background studies should limit downside tests, as investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy.
Support is at congestion around 7000 with any break turning investors cautious once again as subsequent focus turns to the 6875.40 low of 12 December. Further slippage below 6800 will add further weight to sentiment as critical support at 6655/75 then comes into view.
AUDUSD SKACAPITALIm already short on this, however, as seen on the chart I believe the outlook is still short. Only longs would be analysed on the break above the trend line. Our longer term target would be 0.7000-06900. However, as you could see we have multi trade setups. They are just their to remind me of potential entries (adding on to my trades). Once each target has been met price action must be analysed. The longer term trade setup, ideal stop would be 0.74300 to cut out fundamental manipulation. However, i would like to be out of the trade if the trend line is breached, ill look for a re entry if my trade is stopped out by a false movement. Please remember, this is just a forecast and money management is key.
Persimmon - Bullish breakBullish from the downward channel marks the continuation of the rally from the Brexit day low. On the higher side, major resistance is seen around 1900-1910 levels (falling trend line resistance).
On the downside, only a daily close below 1800 would signal bullish invalidation.
UK FTSE to find difficulty maintaining higher levelsUK equities are consolidating the steep rally from the June lows, as prices turn choppy below congestion around 7000. A push above here cannot be ruled out, as the Tension Indicator continues to advance, but falling stochastics are expected to limit scope, with the critical 7122~ contract high of April 2015 to provide a barrier.
In the coming months, downside risks are expected to increase, as investors maintain a cautious stance, with a close below the 6654.48 low of September opening up lows down to congestion support at the 6500 retracement. Further slippage towards 6300 cannot be ruled out, however, as longer-term studies show fresh downside development.
An unexpected close above 7122~ will open up the 7325, (50%) projection of the 2009-2015 rally, before fresh selling pressure appears.
FTSE to find difficulty maintaining levels above 7000FTSE has bounced smartly from above the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November, with prices now pressuring the 6956.70 retracement.
Extension to congestion around 7000 is highlighted from rising momentum studies, but any further gains are expected to prove difficult to maintain, as the Tension Indicator, (not shown), continues to weaken and investors maintain a cautious stance. A close above 7000, however, would improve sentiment and open up highs towards the critical 7129.83 high of October.
Support is raised to congestion around 6800, but a close below the 6615/76~ lows is needed to confirm continuation of the October bear trend and turn investors bearish once again.