Shell (RDSA LN)This Co. has has a interesting time in recent months, the will they wont they OPEC saga has made energy based shares volatile. The most recent rhetoric from today has been from Saudi Arabia who stated that they considered scrapping output cuts if Iran refuse to join in. Last week API and DOE crude oil inventories reported a large build which doesn't bode well for the stock price.
In regards to the chart the long term trend is bearish (D1) but more recently share price retraced after the output cut was announced. On the H1 chart price has made a lower high and the previous wave low has just been broken at the 2026 area which could confirm a change in trend. In regards to value we are at the bottom of the recent value range but could break into the lower mean price range between 1980 and 1900.
R5 Downward trendline
R4 2125.30
R3 2093.84
R2 Internal downtrend line
R1 2026.62
Current 2019.00
S1 1956.17
S2 1940.00
S3 Upward trendline
S4 1929.80
UK
Barclays (BARC LN)Barclays (BARC LN) – recently Co.’s shares have taken a hit after Trump gains ground in the election polls. Yesterday shares received a lift after UK courts decided that MP’s must be involved in the invoking of article 50. This led financial names and GBP to rally as a soft Brexit may be the outcome. Taking a look at the chart we are in a technical downtrend on the D1, but on the lover timeframes we are clearly making higher highs and higher lows. In terms of the RSI on the D1 chart we are still in positive territory, albeit mildly so. On the hourly chart we are seeing a bullish failure swing develop which suggests we are slightly stretched short term. We are slightly above the relative value area on the H1 chart which does suggest after a mild retracement we could see prices move back to the 170-172 area, but the 180.53 support zone would confirm a break lower as the first lower high and lower low would be confirmed.
R3 192.99
R2 downtrend line above current price
R1 187.065
Current 180.65
S1 179.73
S2 177.04
S3 174.81
S4 161.09
FTSE 100 CashThis market is still in a technical uptrend although signs are beginning to emerge that we may be falling off, but the confirmation will come if the 6700 level is broken to the downside. In terms of indicators the RSI has moved into bearish territory but is producing a bullish failure swing. On the monthly timeframe the candlestick action is very bearish but despite this the daily chart is showing signs of exhaustion (which means we may see a retracement). In terms of fundamentals today we saw a court ruling that MP's will have a say on invoking article 50 before it is triggered which was bullish for GBP but bearish for large caps like GSK and mining names, this is due to their profits being denominated in USD. Importers like Dixons Charphone and companies that need a stong GBP i.e. Ryanair this was positive but these companies make up much less of the FTSE100.
R2 7098
R1 6940
Current 6809
S1 6780
S2 6704
S3 Downward internal trendline starting 15th Aug
New trade signaled - Buy WEIR LN @ OpenWEIR has outperformed the benchmark index and oil support service sector over the past 3 months. The stock is trading in a fantastic uptrend and we believe it will continue to push higher towards 2000p. Buy at the open. Stop loss at 1696p, target 2012p.
New trade signaled - Buy EXPN LN @ OpenEXPN has outperformed the benchmark index and support services sector over the past 3 months. The shares are in a long term uptrend and have triggered a buy in our model. Buy at the open with a stop at 1548p. Target 1695p
New trade signaled - Buy JMAT LNJohnson Mathey has outperformed the benchmark index and chemicals sector over the past 3 months. The shares are in a long term uptrend and have triggered a buy in our model. Buy at the open with a stop at 3414p. Target 3775p
Sell Inchape (INCH)Inchcape has been steadily trending lower over the past few weeks. The shares have under-performed the FTSE100 index over the last 3 months as well as the general retailers sector. Sell at market and look for a move towards the June low.
Sell Aggreko PLC (AGK)Aggreko has broken to new lows on a relative basis against the FTSE 100. The shares are under performing the benchmark index and the support services sector over the past 3 months. Further weakness is expected. Sell with a stop above Friday's high.
Schroders (SDR)Since hitting 2000.00 the share price has retraced 41% and since have consolidated around the 2800 area. The average estimates from brokers are still at a hold - buy rating. The RSI is showing a bullish failure swing with the indicator making lows and the price making a higher low.
On the weekly chart price action has been bearish with a shooting star candle (last week). However, the daily chart contradicts this with a hammer candle rejection of the 2754 lows.
R3 2876.80
R2 2850.00
R1 2800.00
Current 2722.00
S1 Upward trendline starting from June 6 low.
S2 2722.00
S3 2651.00
S4 2620.13
Morrison (MRW LN)Price is in a firm up trend despite retracing recently and in recent Kantar surveys showed the Co.'s market share decline 3.2% but stand at a respectable 10.4% with Tesco still in the lead at 28.2%. However, recent news for the Co. has been positive with the tie up with Amazon and their last set of earnings showing an increase in revenues.
R3 230.14
R2 Intraday downtrend line
R1 223.56
Current 221.41
S1 216.98
S2 214.87
In terms of Value Areas we have extended above the mean area on the daily chart and would need another distribution if results are outstanding. If results are worse than expected we could see prices trade back into mean value at around 200.00
Morrison (MRW LN)Price is in a firm up trend despite retracing recently and in recent Kantar surveys showed the Co.'s market share decline 3.2% but stand at a respectable 10.4% with Tesco still in the lead at 28.2%. However, recent news for the Co. has been positive with the tie up with Amazon and their last set of earnings showing an increase in revenues.
R3 230.14
R2 Intraday downtrend line
R1 223.56
Current 221.41
S1 216.98
S2 214.87
In terms of Value Areas we have extended above the mean area on the daily chart and would need another distribution if results are outstanding. If results are worse than expected we could see prices trade back into mean value at around 200.00
Persimmon (PSN LN) ahead of earnings (2nd Nov)Tomorrow brings the earnings of UK home builder Persimmon.
UK home builders have performed well in recent times with the UK government backing the housing market with expansion plans. In terms of recent broker recommendations UBS, Credit Suisse and Canaccord have all upgraded to company within the last 4 months.
* The weekly chart is showing bullish hammer candles.
* On the hourly chart we are at a relatively low level.
* On the Daily chart we support at the upward trendline.
* Could see resistance at the downward trendline on the linked chart.
* In regards to Volume the VPOC (Oct) is at around the 1726.13 area, do not be surprised if this is a support level.
* Oct high of 1892.65, Low of 1648.88 and highest amount of contracts exchanged (Value) 1725.30
R4 1648.88
R3 1831.04
R2 1787.93
R1 1735.39
Current 1731.00
S1 1720.63
S2 1648.88
GBPCAD | Fibonacci & EMA Analysis - Potential SELL SideGBPCAD
1. Inverted H&S
2. Rejection from EMA 100
3. Price stop right by Fibo 0.618
4. Weekly Currency Cross (CSS) Bearish
#GBPCAD
1. Inverted H&S
2. Rejection from EMA 100
3. Price stop right by Fibo 0.618
4. Weekly CSS Cross: Bearish
Estimations:
- As long as we dont experience bullish breakout on the new week open day, we will look for bearish breakouts for our entries.
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FTSE 100 – Bulls may have run out of steamDespite the recovery from the daily low of 6924.1, the subsequent failure to hold gains above 7000 and a retreat to 6975 levels suggests bulls may have run out of steam, however, sellers are seen coming-in only after a daily close below 6950 levels.
UK GDP likely to be worse than expectedBrexit fears impact on consumer and business confidence likely to give some shocks to anticipated GDP growth. Although this has mostly been priced in, an announcement of weaker GDP will send the Pound lower to the 1.2000 level.
GBPJPY | On Monthly S2 Resistance + trend line breakout to SELLGBPJPY | On Monthly S2 Resistance + trend line breakout to SELL side.
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New trade signaled - Sell TW/ LNTaylor Wimpey has steadily under performed the benchmark index over the past few months and looks set to break lower. Sell with a stop at 146.5p, targeting a move down towards the 'Brexit' low at around 118p
New trade signaled - Buy AHT LN @ OpenAHT has outperformed the benchmark index and the support services sector over the past 3 months. The shares rank in the top 5 of our quantitative model. We therefore expect new highs from here. Stop @ 1302p, target @ 1542p
UK 10-yr Gilt – Weekly 5-MA could be put to testGilt’s daily close above 127.23 (23.6% Fibo retracement) on Monday if followed by a move back above resistance at 127.63 could yield a rally to weekly 5-MA level of 128.03 – 128.22 (38.2% Fibo).
On the lower side, failure to hold above 127.23 followed by a break below 126.42 (Oct 20 low) would open doors for a re-test of 125.63 (Oct 17 low).
GBPJPY Currency Strength Bearish - Expected Possible Fall Daily CSS made cross back into bearish side which means, daily back to the weekly trend which is clearly very bearish ...All we need now is a good confirmation from the (counter trend) pull back for our entry in trend (sell)...make sure no special news around...and get the deal :)An confirmation of weekly resistance rejection will be a great reason to look into getting in...
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FTSE100 – Increased odds of break below rising trend lineTuesday’s rebound from the rising trend line failed to materialize into a break above immediate resistance of 7055 (Oct 14 high).
The decline to 7018 levels seen as I write forces me to consider whether the bulls are exhausted and would gather steam only after a meaningful correction has happened.
A daily close today below 7000 levels would open doors for re-test and a possible break below rising trend line support which by Monday would have shifted higher to around 6980. A daily close below the trend line on Monday could yield a drop to 7000.
