Standard Chartered – Bullish break lacks supp of strong volumes
Standard Chartered shares are flirting with inverse head and shoulder neckline and appear poised to close the day higher.
That would be confirm a bullish break and present a technical target of 831. However, as of now, that appears a big task given the banking concerns in Europe. Nevertheless, a bullish break on day end closing basis would open doors for 659.50 (Sep 15, 2015 low).
But bulls need to observe caution as we have a negative volume divergence i.e. volumes are sliding, hence the breakout could turn into a ‘fakeout’.
UK
Burberry – double bottom once falling trend line is breached
Burberry's sharp rise this week suggests a bottom is in place around 1080 and once prices break above falling trend line hurdle seen today at 1320, the doors would be opened for a test of double bottom neckline resistance at 1468.
On the other hand, a failure to break above weekly 50-MA level of 1261 followed by a retreat below this week's low of 1160 could yield a re-test of latest cyclical low of 1040.
The likelihood of the share breaking above falling trend line hurdle is high, given the bullish weekly 5-MA and 10-MA crossover accompanied by a sharp rise in volumes this week.
Pound falls to lowest ever, Here is why by ForexSQThe pound has hit a new low in Asian trading as concerns about the UK’s vote to leave the European Union continue to weigh on investor confidence.
It touched 1.2798 against the dollar on Wednesday, a 31-year low, before recovering slightly to $1.2963.
The pound has now fallen about 14% against the dollar since hitting .... Read more at ForexSQ
GBPUSD SKACAPITAL We are looking long on this pair. We published an idea last week with a forecast on the monthly time frame. (See Linked Idea).
However, as you could see price has completed the Bearish Monthly ABCD formation with the 161.8% testing the monthly trend line and daily channel line. As explained in the previous post we also have divergence. We would now await strong confirmation on the 4 hour window for our entry.
OUR TARGETS:
- TARGET 1: 1.3500
- TARGET 2: 1.3800
- TARGET 3: 1.4200
(ONCE EACH TARGET HAS BEEN MET OUR TRADES WILL BE MANAGED AND ANALYSED TO DISTINGUISH IF OUR NEXT TARGETS ARE SRTILL VALID).
On the other hand, if price breaks below the channel and the monthly trend line then we can possibly see further downside targets of 1.2600 then 1.2100. However, we are long on this trade. We will be looking short on the basis of price breaking below the channel and trendline.
FTSE100 – Inverse head and shoulder breakout confirmedAs pointed out on Tuesday , a positive closing did result in the index rising to inverse head and shoulder neckline.
The index confirmed a bullish break – inverse head and shoulder breakout –yesterday and the breakout is pretty much a done deal on the weekly time frame as well.
This opens up doors for 7300 (breakout target), which as of now looks like a farfetched idea. However, the odds of a BOE rate cut have gone through the roof following Carney’s dovish talk.
The inverse head and shoulder target could be met if the BOE comes out with its QE program. However, all this appears a farfetched idea as of now.
In the short-run bullish invalidation is seen only if prices see a day end closing below 6400 (neckline support).
FTSE100 - POSSIBLE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WEEKLYToday, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said a rate cut is needed after the Brexit vote and hinted that it could come as soon as this summer! This news got the FTSE and the DAX flying up to nearly 300 points. Also, the Feds stated this week that they may cut rates this summer as well, possibly even this month (July) so that is really great news for global indices. However, with the political uncertainty in Europe and UK, it wont be a sure bet! I believe the UK and European stocks will suffer later this year due to Brexit after shocks. I still expect more downside for FTSE100 and pound in particular but after today's news I think the markets will rally up first, ftse back near its all time high around 7100.
On the Weekly chart, I have identified a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern that has already broken the neckline today. We have the 200 MA support around 6460 and also our neckline support around 6400. In this case, our entry would be around 6460-6500 with stop loss below 6370 with a potential target of 7100.
GBPUSD MONTHLY OUTLOOKWe are prepared for all scenarios. This is not a trade setup this is just an outline a structure. The trade setups are set in our desired time frames. As there are uncertainties in the market we like to analyse both outcomes and just follow what price action demonstrates.
However, as you could see we have lower highs with a possible target to create our 3rd lower high on a trend line bounce. We have divergence which represents the sellers are not strong as they seem. We still play it safe. On the break out of the mini trend line, our first upside target would be 1.4000-1.4500. If price does break above the downward trend line and disrespects the lower high structure then we would be waiting for a retest to the trend line and a possible continuation up to targets 1.6000 then 1.7000 and so on.
On the other hand, if price does break below the lower trend line, below 1.3000 then we can see further downside targets of 1.2000 then possibly 1.0650.
This is just a forecast.
***TRADE AT OWN RISK***
FTSE100 - Bullish bat pattern intactDespite all the panic after Brexit, the bullish bat pattern and the inverse head and shoulder formation is still intact on the UK's mining heavy FTSE index.
FTSE did not even drop to the point D (88.6%) = 5601.
Today's low stands at 5727, which is 75.2%. The index currently trades at 6095. So even if we go lower from there, there is still plenty of support from which the pair could once again turn higher. Point D is a potential reversal point.
From here, fresh buying is seen only above the inverse head and shoulder neckline at 6400. Meanwhile, if we go lower, bears should observe caution in the range of 5727 (daily low) and 1.5601 (point D).
A rebound from this range could translate into a much sharper rally in the index.
GBP/AUDBREXIT. Sitting on my hands to be fair. the uncertainty isn't my portion. Anyway my thoughts on possible outcomes. i believe the target I've set can be hit on the exact same day of the decisions, looking back to the Swiss move previously, market is much more prepared for volatility than previous.
USDJPY OUTLOOK 950+ PipsPossibly looking long up to levels 106.00 then possibly 112.00. However price will possibly move down to the monthly and weekly trend line giving us the 3rd trend line bounce. We would then seek bullish momentum at this level. However, if price breaks below 102.00 and demonstrates bearish momentum will then be looking for our short targets of 98.00-96.00. The red dashed arrow represents a possibility of price rejecting from this level and moving down in a ABCD formation. However, our upside targets are more preferable but we are prepared for both scenarios.