UK
OIL H4 Potential Bounce | 9th June 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 121.15 where the horizontal pullback support is to our 1st resistance at 125.53 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 2nd support at 117.76.
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UKOIL, H4 Potential bullish continuationWith price moving in an ascending channel and above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our take profit are where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci projection is from our entry. A further confirmation is to wait for price to break the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing high resistance for the buy entry. Alternatively, price may head to our stop loss where the pullback support is.
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UKOIL, H4 Potential for a bullish breakoutWith price moving within our ascending channel and above the ichimoku cloud which is indicating bullish pressure, we are bias that price will rise to our take profit where the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing high resistance is from our entry of 121.58 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement area. Alternatively, price may head to our stop loss at 119.11 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Our analysis will only be confirm if price manages to break the resistance at 121.58 where our entry is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
UKOIL, H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumWith price expected to bounce off our entry which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and ichimoku cloud support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our take profit area of 123.6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break structure and drop to the stop loss at 112.71 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
IMPERIAL by name & nature - BUYREASONS TO BE BULLISH
Price just reclaimed the 50 MA and is hovering right at the 100 also (£1,817).
RSI on the 2 week chart recently turned bullish, coinciding with reclaiming the 50 MA.
Trend line + MA cross = Bullish Entry. These are my favourite trades when the two signals cross the threshold on the same candle. Double confirmation.
Further upside will see both cross above the 200 MA (the top of the purple channel at £2,575), which will further cement its place in a bull market.
Imperial Brands are currently paying out a 7.8% dividend yield. Fundamentally, investors wire going tol flock to dividend paying stocks en masse.
They have a price to earnings ratio of 7.27 which is very low by market standards. UK FTSE is trading at
The stress of a downturn in market, trade & geopolitical conditions is likely to increase people's dependency on the products they produce.
UK stock market is not over-leveraged, particularly not in value stocks like IMB.
Has already endured a 6 year bear-market.
Initial profit target is at £4.2k-£4.7k (the mid-point), which also coincides with it's prior all-time high. Here it will likely take a breather and form a cup and handle for a year or two (like April 2012 to April 2014).
Has the potential to approach the top of the channel at £7k to £14k in the decade ahead.
REASONS TO BE BEARISH
Across many other assets, I am seeing potential capitulation in stocks going into June/July this year.
It could retrace 10-20% along with more risky assets, but I suspect it will hold it's own for years to come.
Stop would be at £338 - which would represent a 33% loss. That would put-in a new lower low and likely lead to more downside and a negated bull-run.
SUMMARY
In times of market conditions and the stagflation that we find ourselves subjected to, IMB is a solid buy and a great risk-reward entry here. Despite it's low expected volatility, it will likely provide a decent dividend and return on investment. IMB has a chance of keeping-up and in fact exceeding inflation. That is not to be sniffed-at, with the meme stocks facing their day of reckoning. We'll keep an eye on this one, as this indicator has provided 2 entries at £1,671 and £1,770 recently. Enjoy and thanks for reading!
EUR/GBP - Further Gains to Come?The euro has caught a strong bid against the pound in recent days on the back of some very hawkish commentary from the ECB and poor economic data in the UK.
The ECB will become the latest central bank to concede on the inflation argument and raise rates in July and September, as per President Christine Lagarde's blog, although some support an even more aggressive approach.
That's boosted the euro at a time when the UK economy is facing the prospect of a recession, with PMI data today highlighting the struggles already appearing in the all-important services sector.
EURGBP has rallied strongly on the back of this, holding above the 200/233-day SMA band in the process and pushing a breakout of the recent highs. It also broke above the 55/89-period SMA band on the 4-hour chart in the process which has capped its rallies over the last week.
The next test for the pair is 0.86 and 0.8650 which has been a key area of resistance on numerous occasions over the last year, with 0.87 potentially offering further resistance above.
Eventually, the euro area and others will likely be dragged into the recession conversation which may see the bullish case wane but for now, it's interest rates that are dominating the conversation and giving the euro a major lift.
GBPJPY H4 - Long Signal GBPJPY H4
I wouldn't mind a little more confirmation from this pair, we are bearish on all timeframes lower than the H4. Ideally want to see some price hold up around this 160.000 confluence zone.
Fibs can push a little deeper south of 160 which is a concern, but no harm in waiting this one out a little while to see some stabilisation first.