Short FTSE trading below weekly 50 ema first time since June 16!Following the sell off in equity the FTSE broke below the weekly 50ema and formed a lower high on the daily chart. The past couple of weeks price has retraced to the 0,382-0,5 fib retracement and decelerated at the key S/R level of 7300. First target is around 7100, second target around 6900...
UK100 CFD
Earnings play pt.4BT is currently in a flag pattern, so is the RSI and the CCI.However, BT does not really show that much volatility in recent earnings reports. So, I would only be shorting till the 50 SMA.
UK100 Sell IdeaH4 - Bearish convergence, double wave correction, price broke below the uptrend line and is moving lower.
H1 - Double wave up with bearish divergence price broke below the uptrend line, We have a big double wave down and the second leg of this double wave has broken below the 100 fibo level. A flat correction has happened, price broke below the bottom of this range.
We may start looking for sells.
Sell AGK as it pops its head up againThis stock is in bear trend but has found some strength to recover some lost ground mainly due to general strength of the UK stock market. It's retesting the level of support from the wedge formation and should find resistance, terminating in a return to the downside.
UK100: FTSE100: Short and longer term Forecasts for 2108
FTSE 100 Index UK100 Short and Longer term Forecast for 2018
Fantastic straight-line break-out finally achieved by FTSE 100. Bull markets climb walls of fear. That wall is Brexit. FTSE
keeps climbing and pays the nay-sayers no heed. They are the most slow-witted fools remaining. But never forget, the
market needs mugs. The 80% losers pay for the 20% winners' dinners, most days. That's just the way the numbers fall.
The breakout has been one long green candle - but it's only got a little more upside to 7818 and/or to test the upper
parallel that contains the rally come Tuesday opening. Look to close out longs into the final move upwards - and if the
high at 7704 is not broken above early on - or price flips back to the lower parallel at arounnd 7634 and then goes on to
double top at 7704, then again, look to close at least half long positions if you see price stick at 7704 or just under on this
kind of price action. FTSE should then fall back to 7635 at least, and ideally back to the the big break-out levels at
7597-7580 at absolute lowest before it rallies hard once more, likely by this stage to move up through 7703 and 7818 to the
next important resistance potential at 8348 over the more medium term (first 6 to 8 weeks of new year, roughly)
Longer term views on both FTSE and SandP remain unchanged: Both indexes continue to climb their own
different walls of fear (Brexit and Trump). Both love the outcomes. Paradigm shifts. Complete game-changers, both
events. After 14 to 16 years of sideways to down markets we have begun the greatest secular bull run that many younger
investors will have ever experienced. Both markets are expected to rise at least 4 times and potentially 6 times from
start 2016 prices over the coming 14 years or so. Stay long if a long time holder and pay this forecast no heed whatsoever.
This is for day traders or for those wishing to get long here ready for an excellent 2018 in store - for this market in particular.
Super Long Term SandP secular analysis:
UK100 On Strong ResistanceUK100 is at the moment touching the strongest 7600 resistance line. There are now 2 topping tail which indicates rejection of closing the price higher. Also RSI(14) is currently nearing the overbought territory. If price can close around 7570 level, I'm planning to short it with profit target is somewhere around 7445, which is the previous strong support line.
UK100 SHORT 1:3.57 200 pips targetKey Level to watch 7600. this all time high level has been tested few times this year and UK failed to break above this level. Now we are trading at 7550 level, my bet is we will see UK100 to come back down to 7450 then 7330 levels before the end of 2017.
Patience Pays
UK100 FTSE Bullish Cypher PatternBULLISH CYPHER PATTERN
Took a break from the long term analysis. Now looking at opportunities for the coming few weeks.
The first one I'm looking at here is a bullish Cypher pattern which has already complete and we are well on our way to hit the first target of this type of pattern which is the 38.2% retracement at 7399 then the second target which is at 7472. I'm sure some traders are already in this trade. I'm not (smh) but depending on what happens when markets open, I may just get in to this and get whatever pips I can. Surfing and fishing at the same time right?
What do you think of this?
critic, refute, agree!
Mentors not Trolls!
THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME ANALYSIS: Part IIThe wave is currently finalized and is working as planned:
I ended the previous post pointing at the lack of the volume required to confirm trend reversal at supposed point 5.
And in fact, for quite a while the price kept slowly drifting up and down without substantial moves in any direction.
This situation lasted until bearish volume spike on 07/11 that initiated real trend reversal.
It is also necessary to point out that though that spike was only medium in nature, but the change in its volume compared to previous data was sudden and drastic.
Later the volume changes were driving the price accordingly up and down, but most importantly the local bearish trend was established and continued successfully.
Currently, the price is close to the crossing of the line 2-4 at which volume dynamics should be carefully monitored as this may provide a good tip if this is really the end of the analyzed downtrend.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask in comments or PM me.
The Global Stock Market (excluding US) is OverboughtThe Global Stock Market's (excluding US) Monthly RSI is Entering Overbought Territory. While not as extreme as VT, I would be careful about going long here in developed markets or emerging markets. For a while longer, I expect it will outperform the US but I think it will for in upcoming months. The ECB is planning (that may change if stocks or especially bonds fall) cutting back on its quantitative easing as is China. This drop in stimulus and liquidity will likely cause a downturn in European and Chinese markets. EDZ (3x bear) and EDC (3x bull) are leveraged emerging markets etfs. DPK (3x bear) and DZK (3x bull) are leveraged developed markets etfs.
FTSE100 Range Trading Set UpBuy the break a 7596 or sell a failed re-test. The ranges are highlighted. Stock markets make little sense these days so I'm long as the buyers keep on calling the shots.
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My Trading Rules - How I identify trades, define my edge and manage the commercials:
First I define my 'edge' which simply means a set of circumstances that indicate one eventuality is greater than another.
My Edge: (How I decide on if I should enter)
1) Is defined as trading in the direction of the overriding daily trend (Bullish, Bearish or Neutral)
2) In a trending marketing I look for entries at corrective price structure
3) In a neutral market I trade the upper and lower most extremes of the support and resistance levels
4) In the case of a breakout I seek an entry in the direction of the break
Next I follow 4 rules for undertaking analysis: (How I spot opportunities)
1) Analysis must clearly define a 'bias' and the parameters for invalidating 'bias'
2) Analysis must clearly provide a trade set-up with entry, take profit and stop loss
3) Analysis must debunk a trade in the opposite direction
4) Analysis must factor in sentiment and fundamental factors
So now I know my edge and how to spot opportunities the next is how to manage trades: (How I decide on the commercials of a trade)
1) Take profit should be set at a key fibonacci and/or price structure level
2) Stop loss should be no more than 3% per trade (sum of total positions)
3) Entry should feature 2 or more positions
4) Entry at market is forbidden to mitigate impulse trading (I only trade via orders)