UK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of EnglandUK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of England News
On Monday, the UK observed a bank holiday for May Day, and on Tuesday, the stock market demonstrated accumulated optimism.
The FTSE index (UK100) today surpassed the 8300 mark. Additionally:
→ The opening occurred with a bullish gap;
→ On the daily chart of UK100, today the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, unseen since the beginning of 2023.
One of the significant drivers of bullish sentiments could be considered events on Thursday – at 14:00 GMT+3, news from the Bank of England is expected: market participants will learn about the decision on the interest rate, followed by a press conference.
As Econoday writes:
→ A decision to cut interest rates is unlikely at Thursday's meeting, with autumn being seen as the most probable period for a 0.25-point rate cut from the current level of 5.25 points.
→ Members of the rate-setting committee are concerned that inflation is slowing down too slowly. However, the trend is in the right direction, and the Bank of England has already stated that the 2 percent target does not necessarily need to be reached before interest rates are lowered.
Perhaps the anticipation of signals for monetary policy easing instils confidence in the bulls, but how sustainable can the current growth be?
As shown by the technical analysis of the UK100 chart:
→ The price is moving within a long-term ascending channel (shown in blue). Meanwhile, its upper boundary is around the price level of 8500, which could serve as resistance if market sentiment remains equally optimistic;
→ On the other hand, the price of UK100 is vulnerable to some correction. If it occurs, former resistance at 8200 may provide support. As indicated by the violet lines, successful tests of former resistance underscore the bullish nature of the market.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UK100 CFD
FTSE Target hit. Can it go even higher?FTSE100 (UK100) hit today our 8150 Target, which we set a month ago (March 20, see chart below):
Since last week the 1W candle closed (much) higher than the February 2023 Resistance, we see the pattern continuing its strong resemblance with the October 2022 - February 2023 Bullish Leg. The long-term pattern continues to be a Channel Up and its previous Bullish Leg topped just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, making its technical Higher High.
As a result, our Target is 8350 (just below the new 1.382 Fib extension). Note that if that Fib level breaks, we may even see accelerated growth as high as to complete +20% from the bottom.
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UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation SlowsUK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the CPI stood at 3.2% in March. According to ForexFactory, analysts expected 3.1%, and a month ago the index was 3.4%.
Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “Once again, food prices were the main reason for the fall, with prices rising by less than we saw a year ago. Similarly to last month, we saw a partial offset from rising fuel prices.”
Thus, actual inflation in the UK fell to its lowest level in two and a half years. According to Yahoo Finance, this weakening of inflation could influence the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates from the current level of 5.25% in June.
In anticipation of an easing of monetary policy, the values of the UK stock index UK100 increased yesterday. Today it is above the 7,900 level.
Technical analysis of the UK100 chart today shows that:
→ the price forms an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the rise in the price of UK100 from the current week’s low forms a rebound from the support block, which is formed by the lower border of this channel and the former resistance 7,800.
At the same time, the bearish arguments remain powerful:
→ pay attention to the sharp rate of decline in A→B;
→ the UK100 price has broken down the intermediate trend line (shown in black).
Will the market be able to resume the rally indicated by the blue channel? Important information about the seriousness of bullish sentiment in the UK stock market can be provided by the behavior of the UK100 price, namely its ability to rise above the median line of the channel and above the level of 50% of the decline (A→B).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Although UK-100 Index Is Near All-time HighsAlthough UK-100 Index Is Near All-time Highs, UK Economy Slips into Recession
Technically, a national economic recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, and yesterday's Office for National Statistics data confirmed that this has happened — UK GDP fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.
The Guardian writes that the recession may be deeper than it seems at first glance:
→ Increased government spending (including for the military) masks a deep and persistent decline in production.
→ The economy is shrinking despite population growth;
→ In the fourth quarter of 2023, the deficit widened to £26.3 billion, or 3.9% of GDP, up £5.9 billion from the third quarter.
→ The big problem is the decline in goods exports. Soaring prices for imported raw materials and energy have played a major role in increasing the cost of producing goods in the UK and making it difficult to sell them abroad.
However, the price of the UK-100 index (or FTSE-100) is near all-time highs. This is because the Bank of England may ease monetary policy to avoid worsening the recession. And this will be a positive factor for the development of the top 100 companies whose shares are included in the index — this expectation is included in the current quote.
The UK-100 Index chart shows that:
→ today the price of UK-100 is moving within an upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ demand forces are active at the lower border of the channel, quickly absorbing all declines (shown by arrows);
→ the bulls confirmed their dominance upon breaking through the 7,800 level, forming a strong cup-and-handle pattern;
→ the psychological level of 8,000 points prevents the bulls from maintaining the growth rate - when approaching it, the bullish candles become narrower. Buyer confidence is waning. This creates difficulties for the price to realize the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the channel.
It is possible that the upward trend, rooted in the fall of 2023, will continue with the formation of a correction before attempts to overcome the resistance block of 8,000-8,050. In this scenario, support for the UK-100 price may come from:
→ Fibo level 50% rollback from growth impulse A→B;
→ local support formed by intraday price action around the level of 7.888;
→ median line and/or lower border of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UK100/FTSE: Two Corrections Complete, Time for Upward Wave!After enduring two corrections, the UK100/FTSE index appears poised for a significant upward wave, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
Market analysts anticipate a resurgence in bullish momentum as previous downward corrections conclude. With these setbacks behind it, the index is primed for renewed optimism and potential record-breaking performance. Investors are closely monitoring for signs of this anticipated upward surge, ready to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the UK stock market.
FTSE making a sustainable rally after bullish break-out.This is an update to our analysis 3 months ago (December 18 2023, see chart below) where we called for a Resistance bullish break-out and buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact:
Even though the pull-back dipped some more, the index still followed our projection on a rough scale. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but due to some relative readjustments because of that longer dip, we have to revise our target a little lower to 8150. That represents a +10.40% rise from the dip's lower point but still a 1.382 Fibonacci test (8350) is possible but in our updated view it will take longer to achieve.
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UK100 - Short SignalUK100 D1
Pushing the absolute peak of our resistance price here, trading at 7755 ish.
A great reward and possible short opportunity. Don’t fix it unless it’s broken, an impulse swing entry here with stops as tight as 25 points.
We have been following UK100 for some time now and this range has held for a while. Lets see what unfolds.
Unlocking Opportunities: UK100 Supply and Demand AnalysisHello Traders,
Critical Zone Breakout from Supply Zone Indicates Potential Upside Momentum, While Failure to Respect Signals Downside Pressure Ahead.
We have 2 Demand Zones, and A Supply Zone. If The Price Breaks The Supply Zone, Take Entry While Retesting OR Pullback of The Move Otherwise If It Respects The Supply Area Then Look For The Short Entries!
Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational.
I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement.
Thank You.
Will this UK100 dip attract bulls?UK100GBP - 24h expiry
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A lower correction is expected.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 7640 level.
We look to Buy at 7635 (stop at 7605)
Our profit targets will be 7710 and 7735
Resistance: 7750 / 7880 / 7950
Support: 7640 / 7560 / 7500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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gbpusd 2700/2720 short tp bears 2500🔸Hello traders, let's review the 4hour chart for GBPUSD today. Nice pump off the
lows recently, however upside capped/limited by heavy overhead resistance
near 2700/2720.
🔸Downtrend defined by a sequence of lower highs, 2760, 2740, 2720 in progress,
right now I recommend to focus on shorting any rips/rallies towards heavy resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy for GBPUSD bears: short sell rips/rallies near resistance
2700/2720 stop loss fixed 40 pips TP1 + 100 pips TP2 +2000 pips final TP exit at 2500.
swing trade setup, time required to hit both targets. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
The UK Needs MORE Homes - So Construction Stocks Breakout ?We all know the UK needs more houses, and that the ones already built are waaay unaffordable.
The scramble to move house in 2021 corresponded with a big rally for building and construction stocks in 2021, admittedly alongside a lot of other parts of the UK stock market.
That rally retraced by exactly 61.8% (Fibonacci) in 2022 and STOPPED FALLING.
Since then its been meandering sideways about 100p from 680 to 780.
This hasn't bee all that interesting - it's a consolidation period.
BUT.. potentially, big players are quietly stepping in - it's what we call accumulation.
We think that if UB320 The FTSE 350 Construction and Materials sector closes over 785, then we want to own the top names in that index for a new period of more obvious strength.
This sector holds these 7 stocks, ordered by 1 year performance.
Kier Group (+67%)
CRH (+60%)
Genuit Group (+28%)
Keller (+4.5%)
Ibstock PLC (-1.7%)
Balfour Beatty (-9.43%)
Marshalls (-12.69%)
We like to buy strength. What do you think?
UK100 FTSE Technical Analysis & Trade Idea (see previous video)The UK100 has reached a critical resistance level and is showing signs of being overextended, particularly on the daily time frame. I foresee a potential retracement and am currently seeking a short opportunity against the prevailing trend. For a comprehensive analysis of this setup, please refer to my recent video post.
UK100 FTSE Technical Analysis & Trade Idea#UK100 Observations:
- Monthly and weekly charts indicate weakening bullish momentum.
- Significant resistance encountered at a key level suggests a potential reversal.
- 61.8 Fibonacci retracement zone identified as a logical downside target.
Trade Idea:
- Short position on the #FTSE.
- Place stop-loss above recent swing high.
- Primary target: Previous swing low on the daily (1D) chart for a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
- Consider partial profit closure at the 1:1 risk-to-reward level.
Important Disclaimer:
This analysis offers a technical perspective and not direct financial advice. Conduct thorough market research and implement sound risk management strategies before executing trades.
FTSE(UK100)My last charts triangle pattern was technically violated.
So here's a new one, which lines up perfectly and make that little bit more sense of what is happening.
As I see it, as long as we stay above 7200-7400 a pump to 8k is a lot more likely as theirs evidently buyers in the market keeping the FTSE floating, where as a break below will send this south (6700 or lower).
UK100 8 hours short rips/rallies tp 7350🔸Hello traders, this is 8hour chart of UK100. Recently trading in well-defined
trading range, risk/reward flipped in bears favor after we got rejection near
range highs, therefore recommend to focus on sell setups.
🔸Range highs set at 7660, range lows set at 7350, premium prices overhead
at 7700 and 7750, below at 7250 and 7300. Trading now near range highs.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: focus on short selling rips/rallies, bears
will target re-test of range lows near/at 7350. strong risk/reward on sell side.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
UK100 Pushing downThe UK100 has failed many times to break above the key resistance and we recently saw price break below the structure around the main key level. In addition to the technicals, the macro datas suggest that the index should get weaker within the coming days... I beleive we should see price go as low as 7405 pounds.
The UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of InflationThe UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of Inflation Data
Yesterday, the stock market in the United Kingdom experienced a sharp decline following the release of new inflation data. The UK100 price, reflecting the leading British stock index FTSE, dropped approximately 1.5%. Moreover, the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below the value of 18 for the first time since July 2023.
Analysts attribute this decline to the published inflation data, which not only failed to meet economists' expectations but also indicated a possible strengthening of inflationary pressure in the country. CPI values: actual = 4.0%, expected = 3.8%, previous value = 3.9%.
This raised concerns among investors regarding the Bank of England's future steps in managing interest rates and the potential slowdown in the country's economic growth.
Sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates, such as real estate and finance, showed the greatest decline. Significant decreases were also observed in the stocks of companies in the retail and consumer goods sectors, reflecting growing concerns about consumer confidence and spending.
The UK100 chart shows that:
→ the price dropped to the lower boundary of the channel, indicated in blue;
→ market weakness could be inferred from the inability of the UK100 price to stay above the September maximum in December, as well as price action around the 7665 level, which switched roles from support to resistance.
If new negative news emerges for the stock market, support from the lower boundary of the channel may be breached. In that case, it is not excluded that the UK100 stock index will decline to the level of 7300, which served as strong support throughout 2023.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.