Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate on this idea >
Oil hit 1:1 extension (measured move) and strong resistance, possibly completing a correction to the fall from $76,88 to $42,40. Could now start the post correction impulse waves.
Weekly candle looks like a bearish pin bar and possible bearish divergence on MACD:
UKOIL-USOIL
BRENT CRUDE OIL (UKOIL) (BCO/USD) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThe price of brent crude oil (UKOIL) seems to be moving in an uptrend of late. This is because Saudi Arabia decided to take matters into their own hands and cut production, forcing the market to drive prices up (basic economics of supply and demand!). This is also coming at a time when the whole world seems to have forgotten about the bear attack on oil last year and the Kashoggi murder. But let's focus on the now.
In order to enter a short, traders can wait for a retracement to the 68.46, which represents a previous support/resistance level. If you have been living in a cage, then you probably should know that OPEC stands for the Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries, and they are the cartel controlling crude oil prices and supply. In the centre of this cartel is Saudi Arabia, which is the largest producer of oil worldwide. Muhammad Bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia hopes to raise prices of oil for the benefit of his kingdom whilst he comes under constant pressure from westerners like who believe oil should be sold for peanuts in order for them to continue using their dinosaur fuel-guzzling Chevys and Ford trucks without feeling the wallet crunch. Guess who is at the centre of the "oil prices must fall movement"? Yes, you got it right, none other than Donny Trump!
UKOIL SHORT, JUDGING WITH RSI9 AND BOLLINGER BANDSHello lads!
It's time for a new UKOIL analysis!
As we can see RSI9 is +80 in one day chart which means UKOIL is clearly over bought. Before I'm hopping to any conclusion instantly I always double check if there is more notable things. This time (not available in the chart, sadly) ADX gives 30~ ish which means UKOIL is on strong trend at the moment but judging from the chart there is a reversal going on.
I personally think that we will see oil criss-crossing between bollinger band's EMA line and bottom line but it will end up in downtrend soon. Keep an eye on this! :)
And guys, hit that follow button!
-JJ-
OIL: Potential trouble aheadSeveral important things converge on UK Oil price (on weekly chart) creating probabilities for the south on most lower time frames:
1. Original Grade A ATR switch for the south.
2. Bullish rebellion into a near 61.8% Fib
3. Weak squeeze momentum rebellion (so far).
4. Horizontal zone of congestion near recent price.
5. VMA resistance level.
Note that VMA and ATR resistance are each more powerful than ordinary horizontal resistance/support. But now we have confluence of ATR and VMA levels.
Nothing in this snapshot analysis means that Oil price cannot go north. There are no predictions here.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaFollow up on this theory >
Appears the correction is in full swing now, looks like a WXYXZ completed for the white B wave shown in this chart >
Very difficult to get anywhere near to predicting a complex correction such as WXY or WXYXZ but I'm thinking something like shown in the chart here, down towards to 50% Fibonacci level, then up to $60+. There is a possibility that a new low below $42 can come (anything can happen) but I think $60+ more likely in 2019.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to long term correction ideas.
Looks like C wave has now completed after hitting the 0.5 extension on Friday and dropping quickly.
It could be that ABC is complete, correcting the whole move from $77 to $42, a new low below $42 may come but I think there might be a bigger complex correction (WXY) in play which could see a 50% correction to $50, then up for one more high towards $60-$63 before the new low below $42 comes.
A double top and bearish divergence on daily suggests more downside to come in the next few weeks.
A wave completing before the correction for B and then C upward >
The 5th wave of 5/C/W completed >
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaCould be completion of an ABC correction at 5738.
Alternate is only wave 3 of impulsive move was complete (in red), if price turns up from the .382 level there could be a 5th wave and a new high.
There appears to be bearish divergence on daily timeframe so a new low may occur which would fit with the ABC
Crude Oil Candle PatternWeekly candle on crude oil closed as a bearish engulfing > www.candlesticker.com
Definition
This pattern is characterized by a large black body engulfing a preceding smaller white body, which appears during an uptrend. The black body does not necessarily engulf the shadows of the white body but totally engulfs the body itself. This is an important top reversal signal.
Recognition Criteria
1. The market is characterized by a prevailing uptrend.
2. A white body is formed observed on the first day.
3. The black body that is formed on the second day completely engulfs the white body of the preceding day.
Pattern Requirements and Flexibility
The length of the first white candlestick is not important. It can even be a Doji. The second one, however, has to be a normal or long black candlestick. Either the body tops or the body bottoms of the two candlesticks may be at the same level, but in any case, the black body of the Bearish Engulfing Pattern should be longer than the previous white body.
Trader’s Behavior
While the market is characterized by a definite uptrend, lower volume of buying is observed with the occurrence of a white body on the first day. The next day, the market opens at new highs. It looks as if there’s going to be more bullish trading, however the uptrend loses momentum and the bears take the lead during the day. The selling pressure overcomes buying and finally the market closes below the open of the previous day. The uptrend is damaged.
Sell/Stop Loss Levels
The confirmation level is defined as the last close. Prices should cross below this level for confirmation.
The stop loss level is defined as the last high. Following the bearish signal, if prices go up instead of going down, and close or make two consecutive daily highs above the stop loss level, while no bullish pattern is detected, then the stop loss is triggered.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this 5 wave count >
And internal waves of A in this larger degree count >
Even though oil hit the .382 level at $55,57 it retraced and climbed a little higher, I think there is still a little more to come, the .382 extension from wave 1 is at $55,91, from there A may be completed before a larger correction back to where the move the $50 mark started, then up towards $60+
Crude Oil Elliott Crude oil could be nearing the end of a corrective B wave.
Price just touched the 0.5 extension at 52,51 for what could be wave 5 of C of B but could also touch the 0.618 extension at 52,70.
A drop below 51,31 would go some way to validating this idea as it rules out what could be an impulsive 5 move upwards.