UKOIL-USOIL
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaBit more detail on this idea >
Could get a simple ABC to .382 level, or a more complex correction (WXY, or even WXYXZ) to a higher fib level before breaking 42.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaThere looks to be a morning star candle pattern on weekly chart for crude oil and 5 waves completed at mid 42 level, following from this idea bouncing from the .618 extension >
If this is completion of 5 waves from 7690 then its possible that its part of an ABC leg and a correction has started, another leg down below the recent low made at 4220 could happen post correction.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to triangle idea which didn't pan out >
Price bounced sharply at 4435 which is exactly 0.618 level so possible that all the sideways price action was an ABC for wave 4, wave 5 completed at 4776 to complete A wave, now in B before the next impulse for C to new highs.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaPossibly a triangle forming in crude oil which would indicate B wave with C to follow, part of a bigger correction possibly in the form of WXY or WXYXZ.
Crude Oil Head and Shoulders?Just a theory, not a trade, .382 level at 5560 would be an interesting level to watch
OIL: Why I bailed outI was long on UKOIL on a lower time frame, as there were early indications that it could be heading north. My trend following assessments then changed, as the picture unfolded. I decided to bail out just in time for no loss.
I don't care if it now jumps north. At this point in time - based on what I see - I now think the probability for the daily time frame is greater for the south.
If I see something different - like new compelling evidence - over the next few days I could change my mind again.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea >
Triangle broke and .382 extension hit. It could be the bottom, or very close (maybe one more extension down) and a move to correct coming up over the coming months.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to previous idea >
Possible that E wave now completed, or one more push up to upper trendline.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaFollow up on this idea >
Triangle is well and truly broken and possibly in an impulsive wave 3 now which could end up at the 1.618 extension of wave 1.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaLooks like a triangle is forming which could indicate wave 4 with a 5th wave to come to mid $40's.
May see a rise back to the top of the triangle, though E wave can fall short of the upper trendline in some cases.
OIL, Trading Plan. OIL, Time for Pullback came
Price just made fake broke of 10 — months low
Open a Buy near $61.90
Goal is $67
Crude Oil PitchforkNot an Andrews expert but price stopped exactly at the lower MLH for this Modified Schiff pitchfork.
Any Andrews experts can confirm if this fork is valid?
Zoomed in >
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this long term theory in Crude Oil >
Big bearish wave since hitting 7689 which could be C wave as part of a bigger wave 4. Long term channel bottom and the median line parallel of the pitchfork shown could be a good buying area around $58/$59 for a wave up towards $80.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaLower timeframe of this idea >
Looks like a big wedge (ending diagonal) is forming which could be for wave 5 of C (C shown in the link above in green) which could mean that the down trend in crude oil price is nearing an end.
Ending diagonal often occurs when the preceding move of the trend has gone too far, too fast and has run out of steam (15$ drop in 4 weeks or so fits this).
Wave 4 and wave 1 can overlap but here they haven't but I believe that is a guideline, not a rule for ending diagonals.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaLooks like a triangle is forming which could mean a wave 4 with wave 5 to follow to complete a larger full set of 5 waves around the 6100 area, then a correction.
If its not a triangle and breaks upwards it could mean the 5th wave (yellow V) is completed already at 6118.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA slightly wild variation to this long term bullish theory on Crude Oil
This idea is a bit wild but there are similarities between 2007/08 and 2017/18, explained below in screenshots.
2007/08:
There was 3 months of sideways price action from November 2007 until January 2008, followed by a large rise in price that then corrected to the 0.5 Fibonnaci level. As price fell back there was bullish hidden divergence (MACD histogram made lower low but price made higher low, indicating trend continuation)
2017/18:
Same sideways price action, same large rise following sideways price action, same 0.5 Fibonnaci retracement, same bullish hidden divergence
UKOIL 5min 15min 30min Best of LongBuyLongSell and Profit MaxMost of the time the longbuylongsell and profit Max early gives confirmation for entry long or entry short and almost all the time this is working good .
Once the BackGround color changes to Green UKOIL will be long entry as per LongBuyLongSell and Profit Max .Happy trading
Related ideas below.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea >
Since 7130 broke the regular impulsive waves are now invalid (wave 4 crossing wave 1) but I think theres a chance that an ending diagonal could play out.
There is also potentially bullish hidden divergence on the MACD histogram; price can drop all the way down to the last swing low around 67 and this hidden divergence can still be valid.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to long term theory >
It looks like wave 3 of 3 of 5 is completed so may pull back soon to .236 ($73,92) or .382 ($72,80) before the next leg up.
Interestingly in a variation of the same long term theory we hit the .382 extension at $75,75 > This is using the fib extension from the start of wave 3 at $45,67 to the top of wave 3 at $75,27 and end of wave 4 at $64,48. I do think that even though this level has been met that there are more waves up to come.
In the current chart I have changed the parameters for the fib extension tool by starting from the beginning of wave 1 at $42,08 to the top of wave 3 and end of wave 4, based on that I believe price can hit the 0.5 extension at $81,03.
This theory can be ignored > I miscounted here which is a variation of the original subwave count here >
