Get started

UKOIL-USOIL

Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn alternate to his idea > And part of this idea > This is now my primary count as it's the most obvious wave scenario and looks like 3 of C was completed at Fridays high. If the base channel (blue) holds at the .382 level next week then we may see a 5th wave to to $70 area to complete a larger wave 1, followed by wave 2 to the 0.5 level before wave 3 to $76+ If the base channel doesn't hold then I think it's likely that an ABC completed at Fridays high and that would likely take price below $60. You can see in subwaves of wave 3 another channel with wave 4 correcting to the channel bottom and 0.382 of wave 3 > The larger wave 3 (of C) hit the base channel top and we might see it correct to .382 of wave 3 before up to the .618 extension > If it is a larger wave 1 we're in then $78 looks possible >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
2
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaThe bigger picture for this idea > And follow up from this idea > If the base channel (blue) holds and we get a 5th wave up towards $70 next week then that could be a bigger wave 1 of 5 towards $78. Ultimately the invalidation point for this count is wave 4 crossing wave 1 at 6636, however, if the base channel breaks I think bears might have control. The blue fib levels are the extension and retracement levels for the subwaves of the bigger 5 (green) and the green fib levels are the extensions of wave 3 (green). Thought I would show the subwaves I counted up from $42 for anyone interested: For wave 1 from $42 to $50; An awkward wave to count but settled with this > For wave 3 of 3 of 3; A running flat correction for subwave 2 to the .236 level > For wave 4 of 3 of 3; A WXY with Y terminating at the 0.5 extensions of W > For wave 5 of 3 of 3; An ending diagonal > For wave 4 of 3; An ABC > That terminated at 0.382 of wave 3 > For wave 5 of 3; A very brutal move upwards with wave 3 hitting the 4.618 extension of wave 1 and an ending diagonal for the final wave > And finally the big wave 4 that formed what appears to be a WXYXZ right to the lower channel trendline > I tried to predict this wave many times () with a little bit of success. To further reinforce my belief in this count wave 3 also hit the 3.618 extension and wave 4 almost hit the 0.382 level but I think the bullish trendline prevented that >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
3
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea with a slightly different count on October contract > Possibly in wave 5 now but the yellow wave iii could also be C wave and that could mean we're already in impulsive move down, key price is at the red line as crossing this will invalidate it (wave 4 crossing wave 1). Some nice fib levels in subwaves of wave iii (yellow) > Some nice fib levels in subwaves of 3 (white) > Zoomed in on the ABC from Fridays high of day to low of day it looks like a nice 5-3-5 structure > It will be interesting to see how this count develops on Monday morning, if it does complete 5 waves then that could be a larger degree wave 1, or wave A.
NYMEX:CLV2018
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaPlease ignore this idea > I forgot to plot any potential outcome (its late here) :) An update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice Fibonacci relationships > 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3 termination, 1:1 of wave 3 for wave 5 termination Zoomed in those waves you can see the ending diagonal for wave 5 of 5 > I'll let the current waves develop and attempt to plot some waves once things settle down but on 5min timeframe there is already some nice Fibonacci relationships > I think one possibility is a WXYXZ back to the level of wave 4 in the impulsive move up and the 0.382 retracement level >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA bearish alternative to this idea > And smaller timeframe analysis to this theory > I think it's possible that Fridays movement was an ABC to complete a larger degree wave 4. If you look on the 5m chart here > You can see 5 waves up (orange) before a pull back to the .236 level then up for one more wave which could be C; from the top there appears to be a starting wedge for what could be wave 1 down. The key level for this theory to play out is Fridays high, above that level then the move is invalid (wave 2 crossing wave 1 starting point).
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice Fibonacci relationships > 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3 termination, 1:1 of wave 3 for wave 5 termination Zoomed in those waves you can see the ending diagonal for wave 5 of 5 > I'll let the current waves develop and attempt to plot some waves once things settle down but on 5min timeframe there is already some nice Fibonacci relationships >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to previous idea > I previously theorized that C wave (I now have this as Y) would terminate at the 0.618 extension of A wave, however, it appears to have stopped short at the 0.5 extension; it's possible that the correction is completed and now on to new highs, or a more complex correction as shown in the chart. If WXY is not completed at 6613 maybe a more complex correction with X(2) and Y to follow to make WXYXZ. X(2) must be at least equal equal in length to Y so at least $70,40 for X wave if this turns out to be WXYXZ, followed by Z which must be at least equal in length to X(2) which may take us down to the 0.382 level at $64. If WXY is completed at the current level then we could go on to see new highs for 2018.
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King