UKOIL-USOIL
Brent Crude Oil inverse head & shoulders - long-term TP ~$78-88BCO/USD is showing a potential inverse head & shoulders on the monthly chart. long term target prices are labeled in the chart. first tp is a probable support level, second tp is based on pattern projection.
this is based on pure TA, so as always, it could be wrong.
trade at your own risk.
Weak oil.Abnormally larger sell volume in last downturn on the price of oil, followed by significantly lower volume on this rise. Bigger players have been taking their exits, be very cautious with any crude oil longs here..
Sell Stop for UKOILSell Stop entry @ 54.3
Sl: 57.7
TP1: 52.7
TP2: 51
TP3: 49.3
Break Even @ TP1 and close 1/3 of the volume
close second 1/3 @TP2
close third 1/3 @TP3
Oil possible plays in 2017Planning to add 30-50% of my long position at 47.33$ area, i will another 30-50% of the total position at the bottom of the wedge that is around the 300MA 45.6$. My target will be around 54-58$ in 2017. Than i think this wedge may break down in the end of 2017.
If there is no significal change in the market. As it is now, US shale producers are vey active trying to use all their fields to fill the OPEC cut demand, and that is what happening, rigs and activity are incrased 35% in 2017 so fare in the most economical/cheap fields. And i think if OPEC does not increase the cuts this is the outcome. And even worst if OPEC does not extend the time of their cuts and start producing full 01.07.2017, the price will collapse even more.
Brent/WTI spread. Brent Oil Could Lose Its Benchmark statusBrent (UKOIL) is on the slippery path as production is falling and this could lead to the drop of it's share and loss of the benchmark status to other crudes, namely WTI or Dubai or Urals.
Triangle is possible model here.
Target minus $10 spread - the WTI (USOIL) becomes more expensive than Brent.
BCOUSD @ Daily @ "it`s good 2 be true !?"
temporarly high in June`16 around 52
temporarly high in August`16 around 51
temporarly high in October `16 around 53
First target should 54 $ in BCOUSD - throughtout December 2016.
And in the 1st Quarter 2017 we could see prices above 60 ?!
Not only OPEC Policy support maeks me bullish
also technical turnaround around 46 $
- with 100 SMA & 200 SMA supprt ...
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
USDNOK - Possible short-setup USDNOK has now tested trendline established since early 2016, where the last touch point was due Brexit. The recent move upward has been on declining volume and created a negative divergence which supports a possible failure of breaking resistance @ 8,50.
In that matter, this pair should offer a nice risk/reward for a short play.
Trade-idea:
Short entry between 8,45-8,50
Stop-loss if we close above 8,52 on a daily timeframe
Target 1: 8,30
Target 2: 8,20 (if Target 1 is reached, move stop down to 8,40 on a daily timeframe.
Play safe!
UKOIL WITH NEGATIVE LOOKINGTriangle may broken assinding direction as all signals shown on the chart. Target can be around $23.5 up to next March 2017
Oil short opportunityUKOIL moved to down to the resistance area if it closes below 51.00 oil will be going down to 48.50 if the 48.50 level breaks we will see further lower point for oil 41.50
possible shortprice should retrace and hit the 14 point average and just touch 618 fib ratio before going lower, stops are placed at previous high. it should go as low as 48-49 before retesting the top at 52.93-53.
UKoil 30min , BEARISH divergence at 47,8Bearish divergence here at FIB 0,5 = 47,6 now , could it make it turn down again ? It maybe depends on USD also, if it will turn back up again, after FED's no rate-hike 21.sept.....
UKOIL, possible resistance and supportBTW, API Reports 12.1 Million Barrel Draw of US Crude Oil Inventories earlier today. Also there is EIA report coming tomorrow morning 11:00AM New York time. Oil is still bearish in the big picture as long as it's below $51.20. GL
Possible long-setup in USDNOKUSDNOK is again testing horizontal support around 8,15-8,10 area. For now, we have seen a possible bounce from support on the 4H timeframe. In that matter, we should have a great long-setup with entry around 8,18-8,16 with a stop loss if we close below 8,14 on a daily timeframe.
On the upside, we have target 1 at 8,25 and target 2 up against 8,30. This should offer a nice risk/reward.
