Update to several theories: The 0.382 level was hit which could conclude wave A of a larger correction, B may correct to the .382 level which coincides with a backtest of .236 at mid $50
Slight variation on the 5 wave count from this idea > Looks like a triangle is forming, a break below 5185 would invalidate it.
Update to this idea > Looks like wave 4 is complete by running flat ABC and now in the 5th wave to $55 level, from there possible correction to complete right shoulder of inverse head & shoulder before the next leg up.
As per Bulkowski there appears to be an "M" pattern in crude oil > thepatternsite.com Sell once price closes below the valley low for 50+ pips.
Potential correction theorized earlier maybe be part of a larger wave 4 to .382 or .5 level, followed by wave 5 to 55 or so >
Crude oil could be nearing the end of a corrective B wave. Price just touched the 0.5 extension at 52,51 for what could be wave 5 of C of B but could also touch the 0.618 extension at 52,70. A drop below 51,31 would go some way to validating this idea as it rules out what could be an impulsive 5 move upwards.
Could be a triangle forming in crude oil before another leg down.
Bit more detail on this idea > Could get a simple ABC to .382 level, or a more complex correction (WXY, or even WXYXZ) to a higher fib level before breaking 42.
Update to this idea > Possibly still in wave 5 in ending diagonal
There looks to be a morning star candle pattern on weekly chart for crude oil and 5 waves completed at mid 42 level, following from this idea bouncing from the .618 extension > If this is completion of 5 waves from 7690 then its possible that its part of an ABC leg and a correction has started, another leg down below the recent low made at 4220 could happen post...
Update to triangle idea which didn't pan out > Price bounced sharply at 4435 which is exactly 0.618 level so possible that all the sideways price action was an ABC for wave 4, wave 5 completed at 4776 to complete A wave, now in B before the next impulse for C to new highs.
Possibly a triangle forming in crude oil which would indicate B wave with C to follow, part of a bigger correction possibly in the form of WXY or WXYXZ.
Just a theory, not a trade, .382 level at 5560 would be an interesting level to watch
I was long on UKOIL on a lower time frame, as there were early indications that it could be heading north. My trend following assessments then changed, as the picture unfolded. I decided to bail out just in time for no loss. I don't care if it now jumps north. At this point in time - based on what I see - I now think the probability for the daily time frame is...
Update to this idea > Triangle broke and .382 extension hit. It could be the bottom, or very close (maybe one more extension down) and a move to correct coming up over the coming months.
Update to previous idea > Possible that E wave now completed, or one more push up to upper trendline.
Follow up on this idea > Triangle is well and truly broken and possibly in an impulsive wave 3 now which could end up at the 1.618 extension of wave 1.