I think oil is now in wave 3 up and we're heading towards the 75-78 area eventually. An update to this idea with the subwaves of wave 1 in yellow > Linked to this bigger picture idea >
An update to long term Elliott Wave idea > Wave 4 did not quite reach the .382 level but the channel bottom was hit so we might see a new impulse up. Below 6440 would be quite bearish in my opinion.
Update to this idea with a slightly different count on October contract > Possibly in wave 5 now but the yellow wave iii could also be C wave and that could mean we're already in impulsive move down, key price is at the red line as crossing this will invalidate it (wave 4 crossing wave 1). Some nice fib levels in subwaves of wave iii (yellow) > Some nice fib...
Crude looks like its at the end of wave 3 or C and may correct soon to .236 or .382 before going up for wave 5. If it falls below 6521 then I'm expecting a bearish leg down below 6440 as with this count wave 4 will cross wave 1 invalidating bullish move. If price goes higher than 6628 in this current wave this will be invalid as wave 3 (white) will be the shortest.
A hybrid (lol) of a couple of recent counts. 1 > 2 > 3 > Crude pushed down for what looks like wave 5 to almost the 0.618 extension and a very bullish reaction from there so it could be that WXY from 75 is now completed, but there is a chance for x(2) and Z to follow. As x(2) must be shorter than Y then a move above 7040 could be very bullish.
Update to this idea > Linked to this idea > I think a larger ABC is in play and now either completed B leg at 6650 or possibly one more leg down to 6635; alternate counts below on 5m chart. C completed > C to 6635 >
Linked to this idea > Possibly completed impulsive move up for A or 1 and B or 2 coming up next before the next impulsive move upwards. 5M >
Please ignore this idea > I forgot to plot any potential outcome (its late here) :) An update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice...
A bearish alternative to this idea > And smaller timeframe analysis to this theory > I think it's possible that Fridays movement was an ABC to complete a larger degree wave 4. If you look on the 5m chart here > You can see 5 waves up (orange) before a pull back to the .236 level then up for one more wave which could be C; from the top there appears to be a...
A bearish alternative to this idea > A more bearish scenario where we could be in subwaves of 3 of C to $64 levels which lines up nicely with this idea > Please see here for smaller timeframe analysis for this theory >
This is not right time to buy Oil ..
An update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice Fibonacci relationships > 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3 termination, 1:1 of wave 3 for wave 5...
An update to previous idea > I previously theorized that C wave (I now have this as Y) would terminate at the 0.618 extension of A wave, however, it appears to have stopped short at the 0.5 extension; it's possible that the correction is completed and now on to new highs, or a more complex correction as shown in the chart. If WXY is not completed at 6613 maybe...
An alternative to these two charts where I have indicated waves down towards 64 > > This idea makes more sense for the ABC with a triangle (ABCDE) for B of Z and now in the 4th wave of C of Z, this would end around mid 65's.
Looks like we might be in wave 4 pull back to around the 0.382 level of wave 3 in the form of WXY > Yellow line in the chart is the 3.618 extension of the larger degree wave 1. Possibly pullback one more time for a larger degree wave 4, then down for larger degree wave 5.
An update to this idea back in July > My previous bullish count is invalid as price broke 6690 so its possible that we are in a WXY to around to .382 around the 64 level >