📈US30 08/24/2022: slight increase❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: Slight growth is expected for the indices today. According to the DowJones index, the level of 32830 acts as a support, and a little lower is the support at the level of 32600. It is best to consider the targets for this transaction at the level of 33100.
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UKOIL-USOIL
📈GOLD 08/24/2022: recovery continues❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: Gold worked its way up to $1752 in yesterday's trading day, and today it is expected that buyers will continue to regain the initiative. In the near future, it is expected to update the highs, that is, the price will rise above $1752 and will strive to gain a foothold above this level. In addition, attention should be paid to silver, which is also expected to rise (both the traditional correlation between metals and a separate analysis for silver).
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BRENT CRUDEHello and welcome to this analysis
UKOIL (Brent Crude) is approaching the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) of two bullish harmonic patterns, AB=CD and Gartley near $85. This level also coincides with the monthly Ichimoku Base Line support.
The expected rally from the suggested levels could take it towards $115
In case the up-move takes place before completion of the Harmonic Patterns, then the confirmation will come on it sustaining above $101
In terms of MCX Crude - the corresponding levels are
$ 85 > INR 6100
$ 101 > INR 7600
$ 115 > INR 8400
📈BRENT 08/23/2022: buyers in action❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: There is interest in oil around the $95 level (on average) and most likely further events will develop above this level. The approach of the level to $98.55 is expected. Globally (medium and long term) as long as oil is above $91.70, buy-priority to $100 and above remains.
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📈BRENT 08/12/2022: strive upward❗️📈 Priority direction : Up .
📝 Description: Brent crude is currently trading near the POC (point of control) of the previous week and it is not surprising that buyers did not pass this barrier on the first attempt. It may take several such attempts, but most likely the situation will develop in favor of buyers and the instrument will rush to $101.50 (another barrier to growth). If the above levels are overcome (this is already a more medium-term idea), then oil will not keep you waiting and will reach $104.23.
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📈EURUSD 08/11/2022: push up❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: The US inflation data sent the currency pair straight towards our target of 1.03500 set earlier. For further growth, as it is easy to see, it is necessary to overcome the resistance just near this level. Further growth is quite real, but confirmation is needed for this. In the near future, we assume that the price will consolidate at current levels and push up the resistance area.
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USOIL - Oil will continue to drift lower over medium/long termWe continue to be bearish on USOIL. Accordingly, we still maintain our price target of 90 USD per barrel of WTI oil. Indeed, we would like to change this price target from medium-term to short-term. Additionally, we would like to set a new long-term price target for USOIL at 80 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The sloping line acts as the resistance; the more touches it gains, the more important it grows.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is also neutral. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
📈BRENT 07/26/2022: continued growth❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: Oil is also starting to gain momentum and gradually recover. This outcome of events is expected for us, earlier this perspective was approved in the ideas. Now the levels of $105-106 are the nearest support from which the price will potentially continue to grow. An alternative (unlikely scenario suggests) a rollback to $101 and from there to look closely to buy. Long targets are at the levels of $109 and $111.
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DeGRAM | UKOIL bullish opportunityLast week, we predicted that UKOIL was likely to test a resistance level of $115.
Price broke through that level on momentum and made higher highs.
Price action might test higher levels and IF it pulls back to previous support, we will look for buying opportunities.
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⭐️BRENT: forecast for May 9-May 13➡️ Oil usually rises and falls with the stock market because the prices of both markets are like a proxy for economic activity. But in recent years, these relationships have collapsed. Oil growth may continue to outperform.
Stock markets fell and oil prices held. It is more likely that oil will continue to outperform equities on a cross-asset basis. If you are in a place where economic activity is strong now but could also slow down in the coming years, stock and credit markets could start to weaken even as energy prices hold.
Oil prices could rise even more if the conflict in Ukraine escalates, a scenario that is likely to push prices down in other asset classes. But if geopolitical risk subsides, there could be a recovery in growth, greater economic confidence and more demand for energy, meaning that oil may not fall much compared to future expectations. This should support the oil.
Technically, oil is not expected to fall below 110$ - 111$ this week. Longs can be entered from current prices. The target for the deal is supposed to be at the level of 115$.
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☑️USDCAD: medium-term long➡️ At the moment, in the medium term, the USDCAD currency pair is considered long. Globally, the price is in the range of 1.20000 - 1.45000 and has already rebounded from its lower border. Locally (on the chart) the price is clearly in the balance of 1.24697 - 1.25929 and the sellers are getting ready for another drop to the level of 1.24697 today. After that, the expected medium-term long will become a reality.
Considering the fundamental aspect, the market is increasingly betting that the Bank of Canada ( BoC ) will raise its key rate by 50 bp . at the next meeting. Expectations of a rate hike were likely caused by the publication on Monday of a survey of business prospects of the Bank of Canada. Also today, data on the labor market is expected to be released, which will also clarify fundamentally.
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☑️BRENT: intra-balance sheet movement➡️ The release of 180 million barrels of US strategic reserves to the market will help the oil market balance in 2022, increasing supply by 1 million barrels per day within six months, analysts at Goldman Sachs write.
According to analysts, the additional supply "will not solve the problem of a structural supply deficit that has been building up over the years." “In fact, lower prices in 2022 will support oil demand while slowing down the acceleration in shale oil production and keeping the current deficit in 2023, as well as the likely need to replenish strategic reserves.”
Thus, the release of reserves will reduce incentives for shale oil producers in the face of declining asset prices. This is microeconomics, so this shouldn't be news. We could raise our 2023 Brent forecast by $5/bbl above our current 110 estimate to reflect higher demand and lower supply of shale oil after 2022 ends.
At the moment, technically, the instrument is in the balance of 105.85 - 114.83 . The market setup for today speaks in favor of purchases, however, there is resistance at 108.25 ahead, which is expected to be broken by buyers.
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UKOIL: Looks like Oil still is in a correction stage - SL 50pipsDisclaimer: This asset is not for new traders or those who don't tolerate ULTRA HIGH risks. I don't recommend this trade (also I don't recommend any other trade). This is just my market view on the current moment. It could be TOTALLY WRONG. If my view changes in the future I am not obligated to update this idea or publish a new one.
Oil short to 20+ rangeA terribly evil scenario is under the hood in oil. 5 wave structure of (c) of B is almost complete. It might still reach 135 in a month or so, but EWT-wise it's pointing down over the next couple of years. A measure of wave A in log scale points to a C-wave target of 20-25 sometimes next year. I see similar setups in almost all commodities. Guess China/Taiwan clash might explain this fundamental-wise.