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WTI Crude Oil All Time Chart. Does History Repeat Itself..?!I'm writing this article, because of the striking resemblance with Today's oil and the one that has been a lot of times before.. I believe that history repeats itself, and there are lessons to be learned. And since this boom and bust cycle are not new, it might also provide some understanding on where we are heading. I hope you enjoy. The time of dinosaurs In the 1850s the whale fisheries had failed to keep pace with the mounting need for illuminating oil, forcing the price of whale oil higher and making illumination costly for ordinary Americans. Only the affluent could afford to light their parlors every evening. There were many other lighting options such as lard oil among others but no cheap illuminant that burned in a bright, clean, safe manner. George Bissell, considered as the father of the American oil industry, had the intuition that oil that was plentiful in western Pennsylvania could be a first rate illuminant. The slimy liquid was so ubiquitous that it tainted well water and plagued local contractors drilling for salt. In 1855, Professor Benjamin Silliman from Yale produced a report that vindicated Bissell's hunch that oil could be distilled to produce a fine illuminant (like kerosene), plus a host of other useful products. As a result, Bissel and his company, Seneca Oil Company (formerly the Pennsylvania Rock Oil Company) needed to dispatch someone to Pennsylvania to look for large pools of oil. First oil drilled in America That man was Colonel Edwin Drake, known as the first to successfully drill for oil. Drake arrived in Titusville, Oil Creek Valley. Oil was known to exist here, but there was no practical way to extract it. Its main use at that time had been as a medicine for both animals and humans. Natives used it for war paint and for soothing skin liniment. It took a couple years but Drake struck oil in 1859. This was the beginning of a pandemonium. Bands of fortune seekers and speculators streamed into Titusville and other oil-related businesses quickly exploded on the scene. I guess we can call this the Klondike of oil, as a beginning of Global Industrialization Era. Mr. Rockefeller was known as the co-founder of the Standard Oil Company and was the world's richest person. Crude oil jumped multi X times in 1860s from approximately 50cents per barrel in early 1860s to over 3 dollars in late 1860s. Additionally, I would like to note that crude oil fluctuated between $10 and 10¢ a barrel in 1860! Adjusted for inflation, Mr. Rockefeller fortune upon his death in 1937 stood at $336 billion according to Fortune (in 2008 U.S. dollars). Similar how crypto enthusiasts built their wealth in 2010s, right? 😉 Pump and Dump By the late 1860s, there was a slump in the oil industry, keeping it depressed for the next five years. Low kerosene prices, a boon to consumers, were catastrophic for refiners, who saw the profit margin between crude and refined oil prices shrink to a vanishing point. Worse, the oil market wasn't correcting itself according to the self-regulating mechanism described by neoclassical economists. Producers and refiners didn't shut down operations in the expected numbers. John D. Rockefeller said "So many wells were flowing that the price of oil kept falling, yet they went right on drilling." Rockefeller tirelessly mocked those "academic enthusiasts" and "sentimentalists" who expected business to conform to their tidy competitive models. One Hundred Years of Resistance for $4 According to the standard model of competition, as oil prices fell below production costs, refiners and producers should have shutdown. But the oil market didn't correct itself in this manner because refiners and producers carried heavy bank debt and other fixed costs and by operating at a loss they could still service some debt. Each refiner, pursuing his own self-interest, generated collective misery. Does it sound like today's crypto news, right? 😉 The U.S. drilling activity didn't slow down after hot 1860s as much as expected and a lot of producers are still pumping oil to avoid defaulting on their loans.. There was World War I in 1914-18, and total number of military and civilian casualties was around 40 million - around 20 million deaths and 21 million wounded. 😓 There was World War II in 1939-45, and total number of military and civilian casualties estimated around 50 - 56 million.. 😓 Crude oil prices jumped again, and again. But still remained below $4 until 1970s, as there were no all time peaks in crude oil after super hot 1860s. Money-printing Era Breaks the Rules The gold standard was the basis for the international monetary system from the 1870s to the early 1920s, and from the late 1920s to 1932 as well as from 1944 until 1971 when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system, that has been resulted with huge inflation all over the world within further decades.. Technical pictures at the main WTI crude oil chart illustrates, oil price are on the sustainable path since then, with huge bullish accelerations within local and global conflicts, like Arab-Israeli War in 1973, 9/11 attacks in 2001 and Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Nowadays Knee-jerk surge’ happens again, and again, so oil experts repeatedly predict market impact of new 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. Crude oil price sees a spike on early Monday trading Oct 9, 2023 so the overall impact of the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas has yet to consider... In a conclusion.. Does history repeat itself.. Certainly "Yes". As lessons of history still remain unlearned.
TVC:USOIL
by PandorraResearch
Odd things in the oil market, reminiscent of 2022 market topRecently, more and more financial institutions have been upgrading their price targets for oil. Mostly, these forecasts were upward of $100 per barrel, with JP Morgan and some other financial entities forecasting prices as high as $150 in the coming months. About three weeks ago, we tweeted that these statements are very reminiscent of those made in the second quarter of 2022 when many of the same corporations upgraded their forecasts right at the market top (to $150, $200, etc., depending on the entity). While $100 per barrel could be in play if OPEC and OPEC+ (mainly referring to Saudi Arabia and Russia in this regard) manage to maintain production cuts and the U.S. stops releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, we are very skeptical about the ultra bullish calls out there. The first reason for our view is that if the global economy continues slowing down and heads into recession, we will likely see oil demand falling. The second one, which surprises us, is that the Biden administration has not started filling up Strategic Petroleum Reserves despite planning to do so earlier this year (plus, despite oil falling below $70), which makes us wonder why the administration is not buying. Could it be that they completely miscalculated their game and missed the chance, or are they expecting a better opportunity to come (supposedly better than $64 per barrel)? We honestly do not know, but it is very odd, to say the least. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the monthly chart of U.S. crude oil production. From the start of 2023 through June 2023, U.S. crude oil production has grown by more than 500,000 barrels per day (by more than 4%). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
14
Crude Oil ~ 4H Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). Notes: - Further write-up on Daily Swing V2 Chart - Faded out longer TF parallel lines (light blue) TradingView has a sh*tty chart bug where any trend-lines drawn on longer TF become misaligned when you switch to shorter TFs. Temporary workaround = set "Opacity" on affected lines to "0%" before publishing & restore afterwards so you don't have to manually erase/re-draw...just remember where you drew them to begin with lol.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor
Crude Oil ~ Daily Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE has done an amazing job respecting its upward parallel channel since June. Could see period of consolidation (foreshadowed by prev price action) into lower trend-line before deciding whether to push higher towards Golden Fib (break upper trend-line), or capitulate to global recession fears & collapse towards 200DMA/23.6% Fib, TBC. Price action would be biased towards upside given OPEC+ bullish manipulation, however OPEC+ would also be hyper-vigilante on excessive Crude Oil prices which could threaten demand destruction - hence why they opted to review production cuts on a monthly basis to maintain price/economic stability.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Detailed Technical Outlook 🛢 I received a lot of questions about WTI Crude Oil. Analyzing a weekly time frame, we can spot that the market is currently approaching a significant supply zone. Even though we see a strong bullish rally since the beginning of summer, I will anticipate a further growth only after a bullish violation of that entire area: 92.5 - 97.8. Alternatively, analyzing a daily time frame, we can identify a recent retracement from the underlined red area and a strong daily support that was nicely respected. At the moment, I also see a completed cup & handle pattern there. A bearish breakout of its neckline - daily candle close below 87.5 will be your bearish confirmation. I am monitoring oil closely and if I see a good trading setup, I will definitely share that with you. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
6
Strifor || XAUUSD-09/19/2023Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: The previous Gold trade worked out perfectly and a profit has already been made here as well. There are not many points left until the final goal and most likely this point will be completed today. At a minimum, the transaction is closed with partial profit and moved to break-even. The market, as was said in the previous idea, is awaiting for the Fed’s decision, so we most likely will not see good setups until Thursday. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Strifor
21
Strifor || EURUSD-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: In general, the situation with the euro has not changed locally; the instrument is still under the control of sellers, but there is no clear entry point yet. As long as the price is below the level of 1.07500, sales will be a priority in any case. The market is awaiting the Fed's decision on Wednesday, and against this background, no particularly good setups for entering the currency pair have been spotted. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3
Brent above @$100 might not be a myth !Brent have two recent bottoms 1.June 2023 ($72) and 2. August 2023 ($82.5) and has rallied more than 33% since July. The rally still looks to be continuing without till 496, $98.5 and $100 very soon. Given the strong momentum buildup and supply cuts from OPEC+ has given the oil a due rally which the cartel was expecting since June 2023. Technically speaking levels of $126 are also on the charts as the commodity is breaking out of a Declining wedge pattern which was in formation from Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 a strong supply side pressure will be giving the commodity due advantage to rise above $100 to $125.65 as we can see.
TVC:UKOILLong
by chandakpulkit
Oil Reserves Plummet to 40-year LowThe Biden Administration is treading on dangerous ground as it continues to deplete the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to levels not seen in decades, as geopolitical tensions flare and as global crude prices remain high. The chart above shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to levels not seen since the early 1980s. The SPR is a tool used to alleviate the market impacts of both domestic and international disruptions, caused by among other things: weather, natural disasters, labor strikes, technical failures/accidents, or geopolitical conflicts. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain. Since the start of 2023, the SPR has drained by another 6.5% or 24 million barrels. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain. The SPR is comprised of 60 caverns, each one of which can fit the Willis Tower, one of the world's tallest skyscrapers. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain. The decision to withdraw crude oil from the SPR in the event of an energy emergency is made by the President under the authority of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) and done through competitive sale. Perhaps what is so remarkable is that over the past 2 years, the Biden Administration has released nearly 300 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR, concurrent with the Federal Reserve undertaking the most extreme pace of monetary tightening on record in its attempt to maintain price stability, and yet crude oil prices have barely subsided. In fact, in recent months, crude oil prices have surged, as shown in the chart below. The global crude benchmark, TVC:UKOIL has been on an upward trajectory in recent months, soaring nearly 30% since June. On the higher timeframe chart, we can see that crude oil prices show strong upward momentum. As soon as the Federal Reserve pivots back to monetary easing crude oil prices will likely resurge. A log-linear regression channel is applied to the quarterly (3-month) chart of NYSE:OXY Petroleum, showing the current bull rally could just be the first leg of a multi-year upward trend. The red line in the middle represents the mean price and each gray line represents one standard deviation from the mean. Perhaps the tendency of crude oil to rise in price over the coming years is why the Oracle of Omaha , Warren Buffet, began purchasing a large number of NYSE:OXY Petroleum shares in 2022, accumulating more than a 25% ownership stake in the company by mid-2023. Some financial experts are sounding the alarm about the SPR depletion. The founder of The Bear Traps Report , Larry McDonald, has indicated that the drastic decline in U.S. oil stockpiles, a critical asset in times of conflict, undermines America's energy security. McDonald is warning that diminishing domestic oil reserves heighten America's dependence on imports, potentially exposing the nation to severe supply disruptions and extreme price volatility in the international oil market. Each time the price of crude oil subsides, petroleum exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut production to keep prices higher for longer. To some, it may seem that these production cuts are a gray zone tactic meant to deplete an adversary of its strategic oil reserves before engaging them in a conflict. There is also collateral damage occurring to the U.S. dollar. The petrodollar system, which emerged in the 1970s when the U.S. abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard, was a series of agreements between the U.S. and petroleum exporting countries to use the U.S. dollar for cross-border oil transactions. Since almost every country needed to import or export some amount of petroleum, the petrodollar system was a means of ensuring a perpetual global demand for U.S. dollars despite the currency not being redeemable at the Federal Reserve for anything of value. As crude oil prices continue to surge, despite the Federal Reserve tightening monetary conditions at the fastest pace on record, a crisis is unfolding for developing countries that lack access to dollars. These countries are on the precipice of hyperinflation. In essence, by tightening the supply of dollars the Federal Reserve is exporting inflation abroad, especially to those that lack easy access to dollars. Consequently, countries at the periphery of the dollar access hierarchy are being incentivized, now more than ever, to turn to alternative currencies, thereby accelerating de-dollarization. As oil prices continue their relentless march upward, the scenario continues to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., and even more so, abroad. Higher prices could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for much longer than anticipated, even in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and rising unemployment, resulting in stagflation. Exacerbating the situation further are global climate change policy objectives, which act as a disincentive for countries to increase domestic oil production. If a major geopolitical conflict occurs when petroleum reserves are depleted and production is constrained, the outcome could result in severe stagflation, as prices spiral higher even though economic growth stagnates in the face of a fragmenting world. * * * Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
ECONOMICS:USCOSPRE
by SpyMasterTrades
49
Strifor || UKOIL-09/15/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Oil continues its steady strengthening, and the medium-term outlook for instruments is positive. However, now, most likely, the price will go for a correction, and it is expected that the instrument will reach level 92, where the balance for pushing is located. In addition, there is a small probability that the price will reach the level of 90.72, from where the price recently recorded the maximum of the current year on impulse. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Strifor
10