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Crude Oil Brent

WTI oil - The downtrend is not done with the oil market Previously, we stated that we wanted to avoid setting a price target for the short-term and medium-term because of high volatility and rumors (then actions) affecting OPEC's supply. Instead, we said that we would focus on our long-term price target of 70 USD. Since then, the price of WTI oil had fallen approximately 4% before erasing some losses. Today, we are still committed to our long-term price target and expect volatility in the oil market to stay persistent, with the U.S. and OPEC attempting to reach their own economic and geopolitical interests. In addition to that, we are growing even more pessimistic on the topic of demand because of several reasons. First, the stock market has been in a bear market for the past few months, dramatically raising prospects of lower oil demand over the coming months (especially as the FED will continue to tighten and worsen economic conditions). Second, the OPEC recently confirmed this same narrative about the declining demand when it slashed its demand growth forecast for 2023 from 2.6 million bpd to 2.3 million bpd. Third, a likelihood of more strategic petroleum reserves being released by the U.S. to dampen the price. Besides that, our views are also supported by technical factors, pointing to liquidity issues in the overall market. We believe this tremendously increases the odds of a stock market crash. As if it was not enough, futures oil contracts manifest backwardation. Therefore, we voice a word of caution to investors. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 We introduced the setup above yesterday when the price was near its low. Now, we believe that the time is running out quickly for the long trade. Therefore, we would like the price to break below the short-term support to support the bearish thesis in the short-term term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
19
oil analysis inputs most welcomeoil on one hand is showing sighs of weakness and on the other hand is showing that there is a last leg of the wave pending if oil goes with the wave theory it can seriously ruin the stock market party it has also fallen from a rectangle pattern to the down side where it can fall towards levels of 70 but if the last leg of the wave theory is pending it may go towards 120 to 140 levels which can hurt especially the Indian economy and the rupee as oil production is being cut it supports higher levels as until there is more supply the prices are not going to fall. demand cannot die or slow as particularly talking about india economy needs oil move there goods these are uncertain times and in uncertain times there are maximum oppurtunities hope to take the right trades
TVC:UKOIL
by Tradegainer
WTI oil - Deteriorating demand to weight on the higher oil priceSince our short-term price target of 80 USD was taken out a few weeks ago, we abstained from setting short and medium-term price targets because of very high volatility in the oil market. Despite that, we stuck to the long-term price target of 70 USD, to which we remain committed. Our views are based mainly on fundamental factors concerning the deteriorating global demand for oil, with the OPEC slashing demand for 2023 and China maintaining its zero covid policy for longer. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- strive to perform a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows hint at bullish breakouts (above SMAs) and subsequent invalidation. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture shows the weekly chart of USOIL and two moving averages. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between two SMAs; if successful, it will bolster the bearish case. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
22
CRUDE OIL (WTI) 2 Important Breakouts 🛢 Last week was very bullish for WTI. The price even managed to break and close above a solid horizontal supply zone and a major falling trend line on a daily. The underlined blue area on the chart is a confluence zone based on broken horizontal and vertical structures. From that, a bullish move will be expected to 97.0. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
8
UKOIL a long opportunity 🦐UKOIL on the4h chart tested the support area and could not break below. The market is now trading below the resistance level at 89.50 and a break above can be seen. How can is approach this scenario? I will wait for a clear break of the area and if the market will provide me an opportunity i will set a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
TVC:UKOILLong
by InkyGrip
16
Bank of England Emergency Bond PurchaseLast week, UK pension funds, which hold highly leveraged bond derivative positions, were facing a nearly $1 trillion loss as bond prices crashed and yields rose. The crash in the bond market has been underway for years, but the tipping point occurred when the UK prime minister pledged to cut taxes at a time when inflation is soaring into the double digits. Cutting taxes worsens inflation because less taxes means consumers have more money to spend on inflating goods. Cutting taxes while inflation is high therefore risks worsening inflation or inducing hyperinflation. Fear of this caused the price of UK bonds to crash and yields to spike. (As many of you know well, bond prices move down when yields rise). This crash caused pension funds with highly leveraged bond positions to experience amplified losses, which caused these funds to need to put up more cash collateral on their losing positions. This could have caused a downward spiral because these funds may have had to sell bonds to raise more cash, which would have had a negative feedback loop that could have sent prices down further, amplifying losses more, and creating the need to raise even more cash collateral. The Bank of England had to make an emergency purchase of bonds. However, by purchasing bonds, the Bank of England has taken an action that will now make inflation worse (there will be a lag effect). Whenever a central bank purchases bonds, it is adding liquidity to the system (when the central bank buys bonds this has the effect of increasing the money supply). Increasing the money supply when inflation is at a multi-decade high is super risky. At best it could risk inflation staying elevated for longer, at worst it could spiral into hyperinflation. In the chart above, reproduced below, you can see that when priced in the British pound, crude oil prices are barely declining (as we would have expected from all the rate hikes). If anything, crude oil is looking poised to increase further. The Bank of England, and other central banks, are trapped. Until they stop monetary easing (adding to the money supply) and tighten the money supply such that rates are higher than core inflation, inflation will continue to get worse. Yet, as we now see in the UK, central banks cannot tighten the money supply sufficiently to accomplish this without causing a financial crisis. The rapidity with which the Bank of England switched back on the money printer, despite double-digit inflation, has me convinced that central banks will choose the hyperinflation route. In fact, hyperinflation is already happening in some countries. Argentina has hiked rates to 75% (not 75 bps, 75% or 7,500 bps) and yet inflation continues to spiral higher. There is actually no limit to how bad inflation can get. When people need to pay $100 trillion dollars for food, as in Zimbabwe in 2008, people usually stop believing that central bank fiat notes are valuable and the system collapses. Look at the chart below. I did not log-adjust the chart so that you can see that hyperinflation is when commodity prices rise exponentially over time. For the chart, I used the Invesco Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) and priced it in Argentine pesos. I used cross plots on a smoothened moving average. This level of hyperinflation always leads to some kind of crisis. Either interest rates must crush demand and cause economic decline, or hyperinflation eventually causes a monetary crisis whereby people stop using the currency altogether. Commodity hyperinflation also leads to political instability and the rise of fascist or communist dictators. Furthermore, when these crises occur on a global scale, they can precipitate conflict, and conflict in turn can worsen commodity shortages. For those who have been thinking that inflation has peaked globally, there is no chart that I have seen which validates that conclusion. Indeed, as shown in the chart below, commodity prices continue to break record highs in some parts of the world. In most currencies, commodity prices appear to be bull flagging. Compare the below two charts. One shows how commodity prices continue to spiral higher in Argentina, despite the central bank hiking rates all the way to 75%, compared to 2008, when commodity prices fell while the central bank raised interest rates to just 12%. This shows that we are dealing with a much more dangerous type of inflation. I posted these figures to show just how bad inflation can get and the risks associated with monetary easing. Many people are believing the pig-in-a-python theory, where they think inflation is transitory and will improve when the massive COVID stimulus passes through the pipeline. However, what they fail to realize is that central banks have been putting an endless stream of pigs in the python for decades through monetary easing. Economies have become totally dependent on monetary easing and central banks are now trapped in needing to maintain it. Yet, if central banks continue monetary easing, inflation cannot come down. It just keeps spiraling higher so long as monetary easing continues, assuming commodity shortages also continue. Commodity shortages are deep-rooted and are due in part to war, deglobalization, aging and less productive populations, and climate change to name several factors. Monetary policy has little efficacy on these supply issues. Sri Lanka was the canary in the coal mine. It was the first central government to fall due to commodity hyperinflation. And yet, even after a central government collapse, commodity prices in Sri Lanka are still high. The chart below shows that commodities appear to be bull-flagging, and poised to go higher. Core inflation which is typically stable in the United States is now exploding to a 40-year high. If the Federal Reserve is to be successful at hiking rates to quell inflation, it must hike rates above the core inflation level. There is virtually no central bank with an interest rate higher than core inflation. Indeed, Japan continues to maintain negative interest rates. As I noted in a prior post, because negative interest rates incentivize the creation of money through credit, negative interest rates reflect limitless growth of the money supply. However, as alluded to above, the Fed is trapped. It must hike rates above core inflation, but it also cannot hike rates above core inflation. Decades of monetary easing have left a highly leveraged economy totally reliant on low interest rates. Hiking rates as far as would be needed to quell inflation would likely lead to an economic depression. Pension funds are already under tremendous strain from the hiking and yet the charts show that the scope of tightening that will be necessary is not even in sight yet. The best-case scenario is that commodity supplies improve and demand softens enough to stabilize rates but not so much that economies decline significantly. Even in this perfect mitigation scenario, stock market returns are likely to be muted for years to come.
TVC:UKOIL
by SpyMasterTrades
65
WTI oil - Rumors about production cuts elevate the priceOver the past few days, rumors about the OPEC production cut started circulating in the market, with some suggesting the cut could be between 1 mil. bpd up to 1.5 mil. bpd. Subsequently, the price of WTI oil rallied above 83 USD. This development comes in spite of OPEC's inability to reach its own production quotas and might temporarily lift the price of oil. However, at this point, we still remain relatively bearish on oil in the long term, with a price target of 70 USD. Despite that, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of OPEC members about future (potential) production cuts. If the cartel proceeds with further cuts on the supply side, then it might force us to abandon our price target. We will update our thoughts soon. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
21
How Iran's nuclear deal could crush sure of victory oil bullsOPEC wants to support the oil price by reducing production. At the same time, we hear from Iran that the nuclear agreement talks are progressing, if the talks are a success, in the near future Iran could again export oil to the wider world. Last week we heard from the U.S. side that an agreement with Iran could not be reached. Today Iran has released a U.S. American (accused of spying) and yesterday announced that the talks in regards to the nuclear deal are (well) progressing and they could soon access their sanctioned funds. Coincidences? There aren't. Looks like europe/U.S & Iran are very close to sign an agreement, which might surprise oil bulls. If Iran resumed large scale exports, all OPEC members would come under very heavy pressure. I expect the price to rise until a potential iran nuclear agreement is forged, and if forged, leading to a potential oversupply of oil and an avoid of recession (global/europe) Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
TVC:UKOIL
by Lobotto
1
#BRENT update - Breakout confirmed, goes to $101Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Brent crude price was squeezed in a descending triangle, and a breakout from the triangle was expected, so it happened as seen on the chart 🔔 Brent crude price is traded at $91 trying to hit the key resistance of $91.60 up ahead. 🔔 I do anticipate the price to slow down a bit when reaching the aforementioned resistance, however the path to $101 stays clear. 🔔 Opec+ will cut production by 1M, which is 3.4% of the current daily production volume. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
TVC:UKOILLong
by azizelliott
1
Energy holding onThe DXY normalization is far too good. Make good use of it, and make improvements on it, as you must. The accuracy, in even such long timeframes, is incredible. For the retracements, the magnet tool was used, and the retracement is in fib scale. Therefore nothing was placed by chance. Also look at the short-term accuracy. Look at the standard SPGSCI. It is lying a little. I have to admit that on the standard chart of SPGSCI, the 2.618 retracement from 1990 to 1998, points at almost the precise top of 2008. So I guess when the standard retracements don't work, transform them. Or perhaps the recent extreme change in dollar value justifies normalization. The point is: the standard price of SPGSCI, as well as USOIL and other commodities, make sense when talking about the US economy. The 2008 peak in oil was not a worldwide energy crisis. The balance changes now, when the price of commodities are defined from the worldwide economy strength. With China now being a substantial energy user, not just the US. The DXY transformation just takes into account an average world currency price. An imaginary "world currency" (coming soon in your favorite color) Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DXY
by akikostas
Fuel SeasonalityAs someone who works in industry with large consumption of diesel fuel, we are very concerned and interested in fuel. This past few weeks while gasoline is dropping, diesel fuel is in a price similar to the beginning of Ukraine war. So when will prices go back to "normal"? As you can see in the included image, relative price between gasoline and diesel is very consistent in the way it moves every year. With a very similar and consistent variance. Diesel remained abnormally high between August of 2008 to January of 2009, bottoming in May 2009. This is apparent in the seasonality chart I made. Because of the extreme prices gasoline reached during the summer, the problem for diesel will continue for the entire winter. A single event (Ukraine war) caused a price chaos that lasts a year. Who knows what extremities will occur if, god forbid, a scaled war begins. PS. I have made statistics regarding DJI, kWh, NG1!, RB1!/USOIL, and RB2!-RB1! Maths and statistics are beautiful. This is not trading advice, this is art. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
FRED:DDFUELUSGULF
by akikostas
The most accurate retracementRB1! by itself doesn't like to follow retracements. That is because it is not normalized with dollar strength. After all, gasoline consumption is highly affected by the strength of the average salary. Also take a look at where we landed. Crude and its products show strength during the last weeks. The point we are testing is not a random point, as the standard RB1! would tell you. The point we stopped is the 1.272 retracement from the 2008 high to the 2020 bottom. We surpassed it by a mere $0.012 as we had, to initiate a sell-off. Now prices maybe have landed. Also compare this with the standard RB1! value, to see the tremendous difference. I always found it annoying for commodities (amongst other stuff) not to follow accurately such retracements. With this transformation it is very neat. It's like seeing behind the curtain. PS. Not everything is money. These charts are beautiful, admire them for what they are. It is nice when maths show some incredibly accurate results. I avoid giving trading advice because maths is more beautiful than useless colorful pieces of paper, and round pieces of metal. PS2. Even if I show these charts, I don't always know what they mean. And I don't have to know, or figure out what they mean. PS3. Don't fall for the "go long" or "go short" trap. A successful trader must have a probabilistic thinking, and have a plan for ANY outcome. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DXY
by akikostas
USOIL WILL CONTINUE THE BEARISH MOMENTUM AND REVISIT $64 SUPPORTCheck out the trade plan for USOIL today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you! USOIL formed a pullback after the breakout happened on Key Level 1. Here I am expecting another respected price action and a swing down to revisit and complete the structure with the level at the $64 supported area.
TVC:USOILShort
by traderchamp_