CRUDE OIL (WTI) Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🛢
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a resistance line of a falling parallel channel on a daily.
To catch a trend following move, wait for a bullish breakout of its resistance.
You need an hourly candle close above that to confirm the breakout.
A bullish continuation to 103.8 level will be expected then.
Good luck!
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Crude Oil Brent
USOIL 27th JULY 2022Oil prices rose for the second day in a row, Tuesday (26/7). Amid growing concerns about tightening European supplies after Russia, a major energy supplier is cutting gas supplies via a main pipeline. The European Union has repeatedly accused Russia of using energy blackmail. The Kremlin said the shortage had been caused by maintenance issues and Western sanctions.
EU energy ministers on Tuesday approved a proposal for all EU countries to cut voluntary gas use by 15% from August to March.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) are expected to confirm as a mere formality their decision to expand oil production by 650,000 barrels per day in July and August. The OPEC+ group of producers including Russia, began two days of meetings on Wednesday, though sources said there was little prospect of agreement to pump more oil . The net drop in crude oil inventories was flattered by SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases, while the gasoline stock jump is because U.S. refineries are running at over 95% capacity.
USOIL 6th JULY 2022
USOIL 14th JUNE 2022
📈BRENT 07/26/2022: continued growth❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: Oil is also starting to gain momentum and gradually recover. This outcome of events is expected for us, earlier this perspective was approved in the ideas. Now the levels of $105-106 are the nearest support from which the price will potentially continue to grow. An alternative (unlikely scenario suggests) a rollback to $101 and from there to look closely to buy. Long targets are at the levels of $109 and $111.
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It's decision time...Oil needs to make decision to goes above broken support line or break the ascending triangle pattern and continue his way to down.
Bearish odd is 60 percent on my view and more possible to drop again.
But, must wait and see what happen and then take position based on the signal.
Good luck fellas.
Have a good week.
trade safe.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Your Trading Plan For Next Week🛢
Hey traders,
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a solid demand area.
To catch a bullish move from that, watch the reaction of the price to the resistance line of a falling parallel channel.
If the price breaks and closes above that, we will expect a bullish movement at least to 104.5 level.
Alternatively, bearish violation of the yellow zone will trigger a further decline.
Good luck next week, traders!
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
📉GOLD 07/25/2022: reverse attempt❗️📉 Priority direction: Down.
📝 Description: Friday's growth last week allowed the metal to strengthen, but buyers stopped at $1725. The price is currently trying to stop the local downtrend. Within 1-2 days, it will most likely be clear whether this will be done or not. At the moment, the focus is on the $1710 and $1700 levels. In the medium and long term, the instrument will most likely turn up, but before that there is a high probability that there will be another approach to $1700 and even lower.
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UKOIL - ShortOil will probably crash for whatever fundamental reason, in the coming years
Technical perspective:
Visible Leading Diagonal, implying that the impulse is towards the downside - as long as the invalidation is respected
Diagonal would be Wave A, and Elliott Wave's basic retracement is A-B-C
Hence, we should be anticipating a Wave C downwards soon
📈BRENT 21/07/2022: potential longs❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: The downward channel for oil since mid-June indicated the priority of shorts, but at the moment, most likely, buyers will attempt to reverse the price and send it towards the latest highs. In the near future, the price will try to break through the resistance line of this channel. An alternative scenario assumes that the price will stand at current prices and then go up. Potential longs can be considered from the level of $101.
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📉GOLD 21/07/2022: under $1700❗️📉 Priority direction: Downward.
📝 Description: Sellers broke support at $1700, thus confirming their dominance in the market. Sales priority is maintained. At the moment, we should expect a small pullback upwards, but it is unlikely that the price will be able to rise much above $1700 (be careful with longs). The $1690-$1700 price area is an interesting area to look for shorts. The fall is now limited to $1670.
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UKOIL headed downGood day friends... spotting reluctance has really helped my understanding. From avoiding being caught in the wrong direction to forecasting, to setting targets....spotting reluctance just puts probability on our side... isn't that what we want as traders? to put probability on our side? So you may ask, how do we spot reluctance... going back to this UKOIL chart, I am not personally on this sell because it didn't meet my entry criteria, I was actually looking to go long but what did price do? It retraced into the demand zone , just wicked it slightly and proceeded very close to my target and then headed back to the demand zone.... what you just read is what I call reluctance …. its shows slowing of price and a possible reversal in place... once spotted my bias changed to bearish immediately... I was bearish on USOIL anyway (just didn't get an entry because it moved too impulsively)… with all these said.. we might just see UKOIL heading down as depicted on the chart.
Energy CorrectionOver the first half of 2022, energy was a bright spot in markets. NYMEX and Brent crude oil futures rose 40.62% and 40.24%, respectively. The oil futures closed well below the March highs on June 30, with prices north of $100 per barrel. NYMEX natural gas futures moved 45.42% higher over the first half of 2022. The price was at the $5.424 per MMBtu level on June 30 and was over $6 in mid-June.
Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was at the $370 per ton level on June 30, 215.16% higher over the first six months of 2022. The nearby August contract was higher at $391 per ton at the end of last week.
A correction takes crude oil futures below the $100 level
Crude oil takes an elevator lower during corrections- Nothing new
The four reasons oil will find a bottom and turn higher
Natural gas remains highly volatile as the peak season approaches
Follow those trends until they bend
Fossil fuel continues to power the world, and while oil has corrected, oil, gas, and coal remain at the highest prices in years. The XLE, a highly liquid ETF that holds shares of the leading US energy producers, refiners, and related companies, moved from $55.50 at the end of 2021 to $71.51 on June 30, a 28.8% gain. At $68.59 on July 15, the XLE continues to outperform the rest of the stock market in 2022 despite the 4.08% loss over the first half of July but still over 23.5% higher in 2022. The most diversified stock market index, the S&P 500, fell 20.58% over the first half of 2022, settling at 3,785.38 on June 30. The index was at the 3,863.16 level at the end of last week, significantly below the closing level of 4,766.18 on December 31, 2021.
Crude oil prices corrected over the past weeks, but while the short-term trend has turned bearish, the landscape could support higher prices over the coming weeks and months.
A correction takes crude oil futures below the $100 level
Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher during bullish trends and an elevator lower during corrections. The spike to the March fourteen-year high in WTI and Brent futures was an exception to the rule as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked the oil market and the world.
The chart highlights the correction in the NYMEX crude oil futures market that took the price to a low of $90.56 last week, the lowest price since February 2022. NYMEX WTI futures for August delivery were at the $97.59 level on Friday, July 15.
Brent futures have been trading at a premium to the WTI futures because they reflect the price of oil production from Europe, Russia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Brent futures also fell to the lowest price since February 2022 last week when they reached $94.50 per barrel. The nearby September contract settled at the $101.16 level on July 15.
Crude oil takes an elevator lower during corrections- Nothing new
As we learned in early 2020, when the pandemic took NYMEX crude oil futures to a record low below zero and Brent futures to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel, declines in crude oil often defy logic, reason, and rational analysis. Over the past decades, there are more than a few examples of drops that take prices far below analysts’ expectations before rebounding.
The latest correction took the continuous NYMEX contract from $130.50 in early March to $90.56 last week, a 30.6% drop. Brent futures fell from $139.13 to $94.50, or over 32% over the same period. WIT and Brent futures have made lower highs and lower lows over the past four months.
The four reasons oil will find a bottom and turn higher
Four factors could cause crude oil prices to eventually find a bottom and return to a bullish trend:
The war in Ukraine continues to rage with Europe and the US tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Russian retaliation could cause embargos that create severe crude oil shortages, lifting prices.
One of the factors weighing on oil prices is the Chinese economic weakness caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. When they end, the demand from the world’s second-leading economy and the most populous country could soar, running the oil bear into a charging bull.
The US government continues to look elsewhere for oil production as policies address climate change. According to the US Energy Administration, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to the 485.1-million-barrel level as of July 8, the lowest level since 1985. The administration continues to withdraw one million barrels each day from the SPR. Eventually, the US will need to replace its reserves.
There are few incentives for US and European oil companies to increase production in the current environment. OPEC and Russia have no interest in addressing climate change. The world continues to depend on fossil fuels, and alternative and renewable energy domination are decades away. With oil production and pricing controlled by Riyadh and Moscow, higher prices are likely after the current correction.
While the oil price is correcting lower, the reasons for a bottom and a return to higher prices remain compelling in mid-July 2022.
Natural gas remains highly volatile as the peak season approaches
In June 2020, US natural gas futures fell to a twenty-five-year low of $1.44 per MMBtu.
The chart shows the rally in the US natural gas futures market that took the price of the continuous contract over 6.7 times higher by June 2022, when it reached the highest price since 2008 at $9.664 per MMBtu. Since then, the price corrected as it was around the $7 level on July 15. The last time natural gas futures were at this price in July was fourteen years ago in 2008.
We are in the heart of the summer, which is the peak cooling season. However, the test for the bullish price action in natural gas will come in October 2022 through February 2023, when the peak heating season arrives.
Meanwhile, US natural gas has become a far more international market over the past years, as US LNG travels the world on ocean vessels to locations where prices are much higher. The war in Russia creates natural gas shortages in Western Europe.
The chart shows that UK natural gas never traded above the 2005 117 high until 2021. At the 200.290 level at the end of last week, the price was nearly double the previous record high after rising to the 800 level in March 2022.
The US will struggle to fill Europe’s natural gas void created by Russian retaliation.
As of the week ending on July 8, US natural gas inventories stood at 9.6% below the previous year’s level and 11.9% under the five-year average. US energy policy has weighed on natural gas output at a time when Europe is looking to the US to fill the gap created by the war in Ukraine. Natural gas shortages are likely in Europe this coming winter season.
Follow those trends until they bend
The short-term trend in crude oil has turned bearish, with the prices on either side of the $100 per barrel level. I expect lots of two-way price action in the oil and gas markets over the coming weeks and months. While natural gas remains a bucking bronco with wide price swings, crude oil is now in a bearish correction.
Follow those trends until they bend as they are the best barometers of the path of least resistance of prices. Trends reflect the market’s sentiment. When sellers are more aggressive than buyers, prices move lower. When buyers dominate sellers, they move to the upside. As of Friday, July 15, the sellers were in the driver’s seat in the oil market. Time will tell how long they remain in control and how low they will push the price of the world’s leading energy commodity.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
$UKOIL - Multi-timeframe reviewHi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 Saudi Arabia refused to increase oil production requested by President Biden. However the strong US Dollar and uncertainties in Chinese economy hold Crude oil prices from a stronger hike. Market will be watching the relaunch of Nord Stream 1 this Thursday which will have a massive impact on DXY, energy sector commodities.
🔔 As for the technical analysis, implementing the Elliott Wave theory, we might consider that oil is on its way to display newer highs.
🔔 See charts below
🔔 Fibonacci 0.618 level of last weeks correction
✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻
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TRADE OF THE WEEK | Patience Pays & Winners Win💰
Hey traders,
As you know, I made 4 accurate predictions in a row on WTI Crude Oil.
This week the price was retesting a key level.
I spotted a very nice confirmation on that with a double top formation and a bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern.
The market dropped sharply then and I spotted one my confirmation:
neckline breakout of a head and shoulders pattern.
Great winner and nice trade.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Important Decision Ahead! Your Plan: 🛢
Hey traders,
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a major daily demand area.
Depending on the reaction to the underlined structure, I see 2 potential scenarios:
If you want to buy WTI, I would suggest watching a falling wedge pattern on a daily.
Its bullish breakout will trigger a bullish continuation at least to 104.6.
(we need at least a daily candle close above that to confirm the breakout)
If you want to short, I would suggest waiting for a bearish breakout of 93.0 - 95.0 area.
Daily candle close below that will trigger a bearish continuation to 87.5 - 90.0 area.
Wait for a breakout and only then follow the market.
What do you expect?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️