WTI oil - Oil to head lower in 2022/2023For some time now, we have been providing relatively accurate price targets for the WTI crude oil. Last year, we navigated the oil bull market from 60 USD per barrel up to 100 USD a year later. Then, in April 2022, we called the peak in the oil market and laid out a few reasons why the oil market could temporarily bounce, but it would continue lower despite that. In addition to that, we said the oil price would drift back toward the 100 USD price tag over the medium/long term.
Recently, USOIL reached our price target of 100 USD and 95 USD. Then today, it paused a decline just 0.17 USD above our short-term price target of 90 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish on crude oil and maintain our price target of 90 USD and our long-term price target of 80 USD per barrel.
There are several fundamental and technical reasons behind our stance. First, fundamental reasons such as higher interest rates and economic tightening will inadvertently slow down the global economy. Indeed, several indicators flash warning signs of a recession in progress. Ultimately, that means lower demand for oil in the medium/long term, especially from China.
Furthermore, the OPEC's supply increase of another 100 000 barrels per day in September 2022 will weigh on the weakening demand for oil. That, combined with reportedly high stockpiles of crude by the EIA, will lower the oil price in the foreseeable future. The same applies to the recent actions by western countries in regard to loosening sanctions on Russian oil.
Illustration 1.01
The price of oil continues to move within the downward sloping channel.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
WTI oil futures on the weekly chart confirm our assessment of the declining demand for oil, which is reflected in the declining volume since the peak price.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The daily chart of WTI oil futures shows the increase in selling pressure, which is particularly bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Crude Oil Brent
EUR/USD 4H TA : +160 Pips ✅ ✅ RESULTS SO FAR : +160 Pips ✅
✅ Almost All Target Reached ✅
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 08.04.2022
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📈EURUSD 08/04/2022: going to break through up❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: Today it is assumed that buyers will be able to win back yesterday's fall a little, thus, the price can be expected today at the level of 1.02430. There is an insurmountable resistance for the bulls. However, the more attempts and approaches to break through this area, the higher each time there will be chances to realize this. We carefully monitor this resistance area.
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📈GOLD 08/04/2022: still long❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: The idea of approaching the latest local highs remains valid. The level of $1760 is still insurmountable for sellers, only if it is broken through and consolidated below it, it will be possible to talk about the priority of short.
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📉USDJPY 08/03/2022: short is relevant❗️📉 Priority direction: Down .
📝 Description: The currency pair is in a downtrend locally and the current price range is 130.807 - 134.505. It is assumed that the instrument will continue the downward trend towards the latest local lows. A more conservative option would be to sell from the level of 134.505, where there is an insurmountable resistance area for buyers.
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📈GOLD 08/03/2022: trying to keep growing❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan yesterday stepped up buying in precious metals, fearing a strong response from China to prevent the arrival of the speaker of the US House of Representatives. However, after the American politician's plane landed, prices began to return to their previous values and even fell lower.
The $1770 level is still interesting for buyers and they won't give up this milestone just like that. Today we assume an attempt to rise to yesterday's highs. A change of priority in favor of sales is expected only after breaking through the level of $1756.
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USOIL - Oil will continue to drift lower over medium/long termWe continue to be bearish on USOIL. Accordingly, we still maintain our price target of 90 USD per barrel of WTI oil. Indeed, we would like to change this price target from medium-term to short-term. Additionally, we would like to set a new long-term price target for USOIL at 80 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The sloping line acts as the resistance; the more touches it gains, the more important it grows.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is also neutral. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
📈GOLD 08/01/2022: $1770 resistance❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: Buyers recovered significantly over the previous week (+3.25%) and this success will be consolidated as much as possible, as expected. However, at the moment the price is near the resistance in the area of $1770 and most likely the buyers will not be able to pass it right away. We assume that the price will approach this level in the near future, there may even be a slight upward impulse, but with a high degree of probability it will be a "false breakdown" and the price will still return under $1770.
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📈GOLD 08/02/2022: strength test❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: A local uptrend tells us to open trades in favor of buying. Yesterday's idea has fully worked out and, as previously stated, it is necessary to wait for more "certainty". We expect today to test the strength of the price area near the level of $1770, where the price is now approximately. Buyers need to hold above this area to reach $1800, and sellers need to break down to reach $1735.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🛢
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a resistance line of a falling parallel channel on a daily.
To catch a trend following move, wait for a bullish breakout of its resistance.
You need an hourly candle close above that to confirm the breakout.
A bullish continuation to 103.8 level will be expected then.
Good luck!
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USOIL 27th JULY 2022Oil prices rose for the second day in a row, Tuesday (26/7). Amid growing concerns about tightening European supplies after Russia, a major energy supplier is cutting gas supplies via a main pipeline. The European Union has repeatedly accused Russia of using energy blackmail. The Kremlin said the shortage had been caused by maintenance issues and Western sanctions.
EU energy ministers on Tuesday approved a proposal for all EU countries to cut voluntary gas use by 15% from August to March.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) are expected to confirm as a mere formality their decision to expand oil production by 650,000 barrels per day in July and August. The OPEC+ group of producers including Russia, began two days of meetings on Wednesday, though sources said there was little prospect of agreement to pump more oil . The net drop in crude oil inventories was flattered by SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases, while the gasoline stock jump is because U.S. refineries are running at over 95% capacity.
USOIL 6th JULY 2022
USOIL 14th JUNE 2022
📈BRENT 07/26/2022: continued growth❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: Oil is also starting to gain momentum and gradually recover. This outcome of events is expected for us, earlier this perspective was approved in the ideas. Now the levels of $105-106 are the nearest support from which the price will potentially continue to grow. An alternative (unlikely scenario suggests) a rollback to $101 and from there to look closely to buy. Long targets are at the levels of $109 and $111.
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It's decision time...Oil needs to make decision to goes above broken support line or break the ascending triangle pattern and continue his way to down.
Bearish odd is 60 percent on my view and more possible to drop again.
But, must wait and see what happen and then take position based on the signal.
Good luck fellas.
Have a good week.
trade safe.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Your Trading Plan For Next Week🛢
Hey traders,
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a solid demand area.
To catch a bullish move from that, watch the reaction of the price to the resistance line of a falling parallel channel.
If the price breaks and closes above that, we will expect a bullish movement at least to 104.5 level.
Alternatively, bearish violation of the yellow zone will trigger a further decline.
Good luck next week, traders!
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
📉GOLD 07/25/2022: reverse attempt❗️📉 Priority direction: Down.
📝 Description: Friday's growth last week allowed the metal to strengthen, but buyers stopped at $1725. The price is currently trying to stop the local downtrend. Within 1-2 days, it will most likely be clear whether this will be done or not. At the moment, the focus is on the $1710 and $1700 levels. In the medium and long term, the instrument will most likely turn up, but before that there is a high probability that there will be another approach to $1700 and even lower.
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UKOIL - ShortOil will probably crash for whatever fundamental reason, in the coming years
Technical perspective:
Visible Leading Diagonal, implying that the impulse is towards the downside - as long as the invalidation is respected
Diagonal would be Wave A, and Elliott Wave's basic retracement is A-B-C
Hence, we should be anticipating a Wave C downwards soon
📈BRENT 21/07/2022: potential longs❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: The downward channel for oil since mid-June indicated the priority of shorts, but at the moment, most likely, buyers will attempt to reverse the price and send it towards the latest highs. In the near future, the price will try to break through the resistance line of this channel. An alternative scenario assumes that the price will stand at current prices and then go up. Potential longs can be considered from the level of $101.
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📉GOLD 21/07/2022: under $1700❗️📉 Priority direction: Downward.
📝 Description: Sellers broke support at $1700, thus confirming their dominance in the market. Sales priority is maintained. At the moment, we should expect a small pullback upwards, but it is unlikely that the price will be able to rise much above $1700 (be careful with longs). The $1690-$1700 price area is an interesting area to look for shorts. The fall is now limited to $1670.
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