☑️BRENT: small update➡️ A small update to Friday's oil short idea in a new idea format. The priority of shorts remains, the fundamental reasons remain the same, but a larger perspective, of course, should most likely be expected to go long.
Technically, at the moment, the actual short. One can open short from the current levels ( ~111.50$ ). The target of the fall will be the level ~107.17 .
👇 Previous idea for BRENT 👇
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Crude Oil Brent
BULLISH OUTLOOK STILL PREVAIL ON BRENT OIL, MOVING ABOVE $100?Hello Fellow Commodities Traders!
From technical perspective, UKOIL has broken out of the pennant pattern. The price action also indicated a potential bullish movement on the long run.
All explanation will display on the chart.
*DISCLAIMER:
This isn't a recommendation to buy or sell Brent Oil, only an Outlook from technical perspective.
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Magical squares in Oil. Pay attention on it. We could see 3 global square range at the Oil chart for last 10 years. I call it Support, Resistance and a Transit zone. You could see that we have successfully leaved Support zone (so, no Oil shorts any more) and follows to the Transit zone. There are 2 main options now - to push off from it and return to Support zone or to come inside of it. If we come inside of Transit zone, it means we are on the path to Resistance Zone. And that's 100+ Oil price area. Let's suppose we are take off in Transit zone. There is a question - how long Oil is going to be passing throw it? You can see app. historical periods on chart.
I have viewed a lot of forecasts at TV and there is almost absent some setups with 100+ price range. That could be a sign that traders are not expect fast emergence of Resistance zone. That could mean that this time transition could be really fulminant (almost no one expected of Oil's drop to 40 area from 140). Anyway, I prefer to forgot of longterm shorts of Oil for 2017.
Happy New Year! Best wishes for everyone. Wish you an excellent year with a lot of joy and profits. May all your dreams come true. Be happy!
We could see a HUGE move on Oil in a longterm. DON'T MISS IT. As you can see Oil slowly returns to a huge Ascending Channel which has started in 1999. As long as Oil is inside of the Channel (or close to it) I am great believer of Oil rise. Due to a symmetry I suppose that we could see a huge move till the top of the channel with possible break (or not?) at a middle of a channel. If this setup comes true you were bought at the bottom of the channel and could sell at the top of the channel - that's what every trader dreams about. However, if Oil leaves a channel we could see rush FALL till 20+ area or lower which could mean that all who has leveraged could loose a capital. So, RR is about 1:2. Trade looks to be really danger, so Risk Management is a mandatory (if you just press BUY button with no thinking about risk management of a trade, you probably loose a lot (or everything)). If you have no skills or experience to manage risks, better stay away from Oil now.
Very very important Channel in Oil_ pay close attention to it. I suppose that Oil has returned to an Huge Ascending Channel (look my longterm view). However, it is now situated in a Descending Channel and while it is inside of it - the decline view should be in a priority. If Oil rise till the top of this channel - prior attention to it - because there is strategic question could be solving - if Oil rise or fall. Remember about risk management. You can use green trendline as a stop line - if price dive below of it - very bearish sign. I suppose we really could see 35-38 level in Oil as a middle of the bottom part of this channel or 30- as a bottom of the channel. Be careful! Good luck everyone!
My longterm view:
Arbitrage: UKOIL-USOIL. A triangle seems to be broken. NB! I don't have experience in arbitrage trading because I personally prefer high risk trades. However, this setup looks to be very interesting. A triangle seems to be broken and a difference probably rising. If I open Oil LONG position I prefer to keep Brent instead of WTI.
Two channels at OIL. A small one seems to be broken upside. I have paid attention that UKOIL ascending channel from 2015 was recently broken upside, which allows us to draw a big ascending channel which start from 2014. I believe that there is some good possibility if price will rises above of the middle of this channel. Let's hope for a best!
USOIL - WTI oil peaked and now it is headed lowerFor the past year, we were predominantly bullish on USOIL. However, this came to a change recently, and we turned neutral to bearish on USOIL. That is due to Strategic Petroleum Reserves being released in vast quantities, production hike talks, and the eventual need to lower energy prices. Therefore, despite the general bullish narrative, we make a contrarian case for the lower cost of oil. Indeed, we would like to set a long-term price for USOIL to 90 USD per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. However, MACD needs to be observed for potential bullish crossover above 0 points in the following days. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area, although it points to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX indicates the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI continues to develop a bearish structure. However, for the past three weeks, RSI started to flatten, making it neutral. MACD also started to flatten, making it neutral too. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX seems to have peaked; indeed, ADX started to decline, which suggests that the bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Key Levels to Watch 🛢
For the last three weeks, WTI Crude Oil is very bearish.
Recently the price broke and closed below a strong rising trend line and now is approaching strong horizontal support.
Here are key levels for you to watch for oil trading:
Support 1: 93.2 - 95.0 area.
Support 2: 86.6 - 89.7 area.
Support 3: 72.5 - 75.3 area.
Resistance: vertical trend line.
Resistance 1: 106.9 - 109.0.
Resistance 2: 114.3 - 116.7.
Breakout of one of those will trigger a bullish/bearish continuation to the next structure.
While a test and confirmation may give you a counter-trend/trend-following trade.
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UKOILSPOT bearish continuation! | 12 April 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by a descending trendline resistance. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 102.02 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 95.38 which is graphical swing low.
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⭐️USDJPY: forecast for Apr 11-Apr 15➡️ The US dollar remains strong against the Japanese yen thanks to stronger US yields. The divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Fed is widening. The growth potential of this pair has fully justified itself and most likely now the price will be in the range of 121.315 - 125.085 , forming a potential balance.
Technically, there are signs of buying the yen and a likely downward movement can be considered at the level of 125.085 . The main task of the sellers is to close/fix the price below the given level. Once this is done, one can start to open shorts. For the upcoming week, a sure target is at 123.153. The downside potential lies at the lower boundary of the expected balance, namely at the level of 121.315.
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UKOILSPOT further bearish momentum! | 11th April 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by a descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 102.07 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take profit at 95.48 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance and RSI is on bearish momentum, further supporting our bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Crude Oil Idea Nr_two (Brent Oil)Hello Traders
I posted an idea on WTI earlier today. This one is the same idea on UKOIL.
Here is a similar picture despite that the resistance above the price is a bit stronger. The support levels are similar to them on WTI and the downside move should be for both around 22%.
☑️USDCAD: medium-term long➡️ At the moment, in the medium term, the USDCAD currency pair is considered long. Globally, the price is in the range of 1.20000 - 1.45000 and has already rebounded from its lower border. Locally (on the chart) the price is clearly in the balance of 1.24697 - 1.25929 and the sellers are getting ready for another drop to the level of 1.24697 today. After that, the expected medium-term long will become a reality.
Considering the fundamental aspect, the market is increasingly betting that the Bank of Canada ( BoC ) will raise its key rate by 50 bp . at the next meeting. Expectations of a rate hike were likely caused by the publication on Monday of a survey of business prospects of the Bank of Canada. Also today, data on the labor market is expected to be released, which will also clarify fundamentally.
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