Oil is likely headed to $70 per barrel in 2024For the past four trading sessions, West Texas Intermediate crude oil oscillated between $83 and $85 per barrel. At the moment, it trades near the lower end of this range, and technical indicators on the daily chart continue to grow bearish; the same applies to technicals on the weekly graph. As a result, the likelihood of oil slumping below $80 in the short/medium term increases. This view is also supported by the weakening global economy and the latest data (preliminary) from Saudi Arabia (the world’s second-largest oil producer), which revealed the country’s economy shrank by 4.5% YoY in the third quarter of 2023 (the oil activities declined by 17.3%, while non-oil and government activities rose 3.6% and 1.9% respectively). Unless there is any significant disruption to the supply in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas War, we believe the crude oil is headed lower. With that said, we want to set our price target to $80 per barrel in the short/medium term and next year’s price target to $70 per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, confirming the trend reversal.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Crude Oil Brent
Strifor || USDCAD-06/11/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Short-term purchase of the US dollar is also considered for the USDCAD currency pair. Here the intraday potential is even more promising. A recovery is expected in an area that was support not long ago. Thus, an increase to 1.37000 is expected and even the targets are considered a little higher.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Massive Breakout Confirmed 🛢️
Crude Oil remains under a strong bearish pressure.
First, the market violated a solid rising trend line on a daily,
Second, a wide horizontal zone of demand.
The broken horizontal and vertical structures compose
and expanding supply zone now.
I will expect a bearish movement from that to 78.6 - the next horizontal support.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Movement Continues 🛢️
Update for WTI Crude Oil.
The price nicely respected the underlined supply zone that we spotted earlier.
We can see how nicely the price reacted to that yesterday.
We may expect a bearish continuation now.
Goal - 78.56
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Crude Oil - KeyLevelsOil, after breaking the support of the trend line, attempted a comeback and retested the former support line that turned into resistance, from where the sellers managed to defend the price and thus it seems that we only had a discount for a new sell.
Now the price is in an interesting neckline and I, personally, am only looking for a short.
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UK Brent Oil 4H :Support further decline UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures traded with strong negativity yesterday, succeeding stably without support at 86.93. We note that the price broke this level and closed the daily candle below it, heading towards achieving a further decline, with its next target reaching 85.14 level, by breaching this level will open the door against our targets at first will reach to 84.50 level ,it will extend to 83.80 .
Therefore, the downward trend scenario will remain valid during the coming period, supported by the negative pressure formed by the moving average 50, taking into account that stabilized above 86.93 will lead the price to begin recovery attempts and achieve gains and postponed the bearish waves.
The expected trading range for today is between support 83.80 and resistance 86.93 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 85.14 ,83.50
resistance line : 86.93 , 88.36
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TradePlus-Fx|BRENT: intraday idea💬 Description: Today, the instrument is at the level of 87.45 and is most likely to prepare for a fall in the more medium term. But here it is necessary to take into account the geopolitical background, which greatly influences oil. Today, an idea is proposed, the time frames of which are within the day. Namely, long for the purpose of local updating of the maximum. The approximate target is the level of 90 . After which, as was said, the price will most likely rush down again, if there are no sharp geopolitical surges on the world stage.
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: BoC meeting💬 Description: Today, the Central Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. The rate is expected to remain at the same level. Against this background, we continue to adhere to our previous trading idea for USDCAD , namely to look up (look at the chart) . But most likely, there will be volatility during or after the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada, then the pair is most likely to roll back down. The expected movement is thus depicted on the chart . As a result, the more global target remains the same, and we expect growth to 1.38271 level.
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UK Brent Oil 4H :Retest and then rise upUK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and reached to our first target +285 pip .
The price of Brent crude oil contracts has made new attempts to penetrate the 89.55 level and is finding it difficult to exceed it, waiting for a strong positive incentive that will contribute to pushing the price to exceed this level and confirm the opening of the way for a rush towards our new positive targets that start at 91.00 and extend to 92.52.
Therefore, the emerging scenario will remain valid and effective due to the poor situation between Israel and Palestine. keeping in mind stability above 89.55 represents a preliminary condition for the continuation of the expected rise, as trading under that area it will put pressure on the price to decline again to the previously broken level 86.93 so now it is possible to do a negative correction and then we will see bullish waves .
The expected trading range for today is between support 86.93 and resistance 89.55 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 86.93 , 85.32
resistance line : 88.38 , 89.55
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan For Next Week Explained 🛢️
Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a solid support.
85.8 is the resistance of the range.
If the price breaks and closes above that next week,
I would suggest buying the market,
anticipating a bullish continuation at least to 87.6 level.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-10/25/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The situation for metals has not changed since yesterday and the instrument continues to be considered for purchases. In the next 2 days, many significant events and comments are expected to which the metal will most likely react. The goal of growth is to update the local high.
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/25/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: For oil, the previous trading idea also worked out perfectly and the instrument is now trading at the level of 86.62. Despite the general tense geopolitical background, the instrument is still considered for sell, and the purpose of the sale is gap closing. Presumably, this goal will be achieved within one trading week.
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The U.S. reveals a trick up its sleeveA few weeks ago, we expressed our bewilderment at the U.S. administration and its handling of the oil stockpiles. Despite oil plummeting below $70 during the summer, officials did not take the initiative to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (also canceling plans to buy oil in July 2023), prompting us to speculate about what trick the administration could have up its sleeve. Finally, last week, we might have discovered exactly what it was when news erupted that the United States lifted some of the sanctions on Venezuela, allowing it to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation.
While Venezuela’s oil production is only about 800,000 barrels per day, the news announcement is still quite a big thing as it will enable U.S. entities to buy crude oil and help alleviate rising crude oil prices (especially if the country ramps up production in the coming months and the global economy continues to slow down - presuming no broad conflict will affect oil supply in the Middle East).
Now, on the topic of technicals, we are paying close attention to the Sloping Support/Resistance. If the price breaks back above the resistance (and holds the ground), it will be bullish. However, a failure will raise our skepticism about more upside. In addition to that, we are watching MACD, RSI, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a bearish case, we would want to see all of them continue declining. Contrarily, to support a bullish case, we would like to see MACD reversing and breaking above the midpoint.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and a simple setup with bullish prospects above the sloping support/resistance and bearish prospects below it.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the midpoint. If MACD fails to rebound back into the bullish area above zero, it will raise the odds for a continuation lower.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates an impending bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. If successful, it will bolster a bearish case.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish (with weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Strifor || USDCAD-10/24/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For the USDCAD currency pair everything remains valid. We follow the extreme plan that we described in the trading idea. The support level is still pushing the price up. The buyer's target remains unchanged and is aimed at updating local highs.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan For Today 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is trading within a wide horizontal range on a 4h time frame.
The price is currently testing a support of the range.
To buy the market with a confirmation,
watch a tiny double bottom formation.
If the price breaks and closes above its neckline - 86.26,
a bullish movement will be expected to 86.78 / 87.61
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UK Brent OIL 4H : try to retest and then rise UKOIL
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached our second target + 300 pip .
The price of Brent crude futures traded strongly positively yesterday, breaching the 92.52 level and confirming a return to the ascending channel once again, reactivating the positive scenario and heading towards achieving positive targets starting at 95.00 and then 96.00.
The 50 moving average supports the price from below to reinforce the continuation of the suggested upward trend, which will remain in effect provided that the price maintains its stability above the 92.52 level.also its possible to retest to 92.52 and then rise up again .
The expected trading range for today is between support 92.52 and resistance 95.00 until breaching one of them .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 92.52 , 91.00
resistance line : 94.00 , 95.00
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Strifor || XAUUSD-10/20/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: The growth goal we set yesterday was achieved. At the moment, gold continues to attract market participants to purchases. However, you should be more careful, now a major player can let them fix their purchases and the metal will face a correction.
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/20/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Yesterday, oil still showed growth and we were forced to exit with a stop loss. However, the priority of sales remains and today once again we are considering sales from current prices with a target of 90.72 and even with fixation below.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-10/19/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: As for gold, everything remains valid. Priority shopping continues. There is a possibility that the metal will go flat against the background of the expected strengthening of the US dollar, after which it will continue to update local highs.
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