Ukoil_usoil
UKOIL Short price target 77.91 this will reach this week endThe down rally started on 10th of this month still continues .
As per LongBuyLongSell Indicator and Profit Maximizer Indicator i am expecting this to touch 77.91 this week.
On Oct 7th using the same longbuylongsell and Profit Maximizer at 86 level it was predicted that price drop ,Exactly same happened .I am still bearish as the candles are Black (Black for short) Blue for Long as per the chart.
you may have a check of the previous post which has given 86-79 price drop.
I am expecting this to happen this week itself .
Refer the below Related ideas for the Indicator.
Like comment if you appreciate.
Same forecast applicable for USOIL as well.
UKOIL right short as per longbuylongsellAfter a big rally of the UKOIL now it is time to get a downtrend .Yes the reversal has occurred as per the longbuylongsell indicator ,good move will be in the coming week.
Related scripts below .
Comments have more time frame charts.
Brent Crude Oil-UKOIL "FREE FALL"
Hi traders,
based on the wave structure, the Brent oil might finished it's major correction in the upside as "C" wave and now falling down toward its major bottom!
there is an invalidation point to this count in this chart.
good luck
UKOIL Possible Buy Trade!!UKOIL Possible Buy Trade!! Looking For A Small Up-Move With UKOIL Before Making A Deeper Move Down (If It Will); A Good SL Is Around 74.3 Levels
Correction Triangle DevelopmentA small range trading last week, the low side 45.15 lower than 45.50 what we expected last week. But weekly closed was in our predicted range. After 2016/06/09 created a 10 months high price-from 2015/10/13 to 2016/07/22 at 52.83 per bbl (The highest price of 2016), for one and half month, the current Brent Crude Price is forming a triangle correction. Current price under 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 50 days moving average. MT50>MA20 > MA10>MA5. The fourth time Price test 300 MA(Low). Correction target sound like aim at 45.10 (Almost reach) to 44.25. Let's keep observe that if 45.10 to 44.25 can get support or not. If not, then price will test 42.50 to 43.00. We are planning to enter our long position. for the above price reach. Our stop loss price will set around 200 MA=around 42.
Take a RestBull and Bear take a rest here. Box moving (or Triangle development)
Bear knock 300 MA(Low) for 5 times, the price still standing above 300 MA(Low). Friday closed above 10 day MA, but 5 days MA still lower than 10 Day MA. 20 MA cross lower than 50 MA. All of above message are indicating it is still in a correction status. Transaction volume coming back a little bit, but it is only 2/3 of normal transaction volume. Major traders are taking half year holiday, maybe it is why price still in a box moving development. Next week it might be still a box moving status between 45.40 to 48.88 range..
Bullish Signal:
1. Saudi Economist and EIA report indicate that Demand > Supply in 2017.
2. Major Stock Index going high.
3. Transaction volume were big when knocking 300 day MA for several times, but unable to pull down the price. (Maybe can be viewed as major traders's PDTB (pull down to buy strategy.)
4. 5 Months MA just cross above 300 Months MA
5. 5 consecutive months price go up, when price pull back will be the buy point opportunity.
Bearish Signal:
1. Weekly inventory increase.
2. Saudi and Iran Production increase.
3. Small Transaction volume
4. Continue to create lower low weekly. (This week low < Last week low), and unable to create higher high (This week high < last week high)
5. Strong US dollar.
Overall in a correction status.
OIL - watch this carefullyWatch the Next 50 cents very carefully. Oil needs to make lower lows and stay in the band.
Right now all forces are pointing South
Oil continues to go down on high volume.
MA 50 (Red line) is below MA 200 (Grey line)
China is just starting to end it's massive strategic reserve buying
Iran is doubling it's production
US production has gone up
Canadian stock is hitting the market again
Still a Box MovingConcerning the transaction volume was too small losing momentum, we expected a triangle development or a box range trading last week, and it was a box movement last week between 46.12 to 50.72. Transaction somewhat coming back to normal. For the past three days the transaction volume is greater than MAV5 > MAV10. But transaction volume is still less than 20 day average. Friday price close a red cross indicating a rest, want to consider next step movement. And the closing price lower than 300 MA (Close), but a little bit higher than 300 MA(Low). The 3rd time price knock 300 MA door. Will next week breakdown this key price? Let's keeping watch.
Bullish signal:
1. Major economic indicator show positive signs.
2. Crude Oil Inventory decrease.
3. Major stock index climbing high (S&P500- SPX, Dow-Jones Industrial Index(DOWI), UK100...)
4. Major petroleum company's stock price going up, (such as Exxom(XOM), Royal Dotch Shell(RDSA), BP...)
5. Physical demand is still strong.
Bearish signal:
1. No agreement to cut production between major oil export countries
2. After 5th month price going up, now it seems want to take a rest.
3. 5 day moving average lower than 10 days, 20 days and 50 days moving average. Even 20 MA M < 50 MA.
4. Transaction Volume decrease (Weekly slight up, but just half of past five week. )
Range Limbo DanceThis week price hit our estimated 1st correction target and get support from previous low ( 46.97 Low of 2016/06/16), weekly closed the high side, indicate next week will test previous high 51.07 (2016/06/22). Monthly chart show a red cross, the 5 month price going up. Next week might test high side. If the test can break previous high, it forms a small W bottom, maybe it will try to test recently high at 52.83. But transaction volume is just half of normal transaction, unless transaction volume can enlarge, otherwise, the price might not easy to break 52.83. A possible development might be Range Limbo dance for a while(Maybe price trend will Forming a Triangle or box moving between 48.5 to 52.
Bullish signal:
1. 50 days Moving average get second time support.
2. 5 month price going up. Red Cross in June, seems want to take a rest.
3. BR-exit EU panic oversold sellers seems calm down.
4. Physical demand is still strong.
Bearish Signal:
1. It seems the BR-exit EU impact UK financial center position, but UK is still the key financial center at this moment.
2. Transaction volume was decreased daily, weekly, and monthly.
3. Huge Lock-in Zone transaction around 50 - 53.5 during 2015/09/01 to 2015/11/04, need some time to clean the lock-in floating position.
Overall, Moderate Bullish.
A Dark Friday?Is it a dark Friday? Luckily it is not 13th of the month.
UK has voted exist UN impact the financial market. People and traders are somewhat panic for this event show an over reaction to the final voting result. Daily chart on Friday appear a Dark candle penetrate 5, 10, 20, and 365 MA line. But the close price is keeping well above 50 MA. The Brent Crude oil price looks like want to test 50 MA and previous low price (2016/06/16 Low: 46.92) again by next week. Let's see if it can hold or not. If the previous low could not get support, then a testing low of 270 MA will be the next target.
Bearish signal:
1. A dark candle bar penetrate 5, 10, 20, and 365 MA on Dark Friday.
2. A passive Psychical logic reaction to the financial after confirm UK voted for exist UN.
3. Major Stock Index drop down sharply (UK100, DOWI, SPX, NKY225, DAX)
4. Bull buyers might sold out their position to kill the bull.
5. Transaction Volume is still going down.
Bullish signal:
1. Finally UK shows a confirmation attitude.
2. Physical demand is still strong.
3. 50 MA and 200 MA are still going up.
4. Gold price continue going high.
Overall, I guess it is in a correction stage after the 1st big bullish wave.
Correction Target:
1. 46.92
2. 45.50
3. 43.50
Still in a correctionAfter satisfy a bullish wave reach 52.83 high, Brent crude oil price drop rapidly for 6 days testing 50 days moving average support area. It is still in the correction stage. The correction target look like target at
Target 1: 0.236 ==> which price at 46. 75 has almost reached.
Target 2: 0.382 ==> which price at 43 to 44.
Bearish side are:
1. uncertainty of UK vote for exit EU
2. price is still under 10 days , 20 day and 365 days MA for 4 days.
3. Price dark for 6 days which mean price will go down to test low again.
4. Weekly chart showing a hanging man.
5. Transaction volume still weak.
Bullish side are:
1. Price claiming up to above 5 days average. (Weekend), price up but transaction volume decrease.
2. 200 MA and 365 MA going up.
3. Inventory decrease.
4. Physical demand strong.
Overall: still in a correction stage, price maybe will go to test low again.
Long Position Profit Taking2016/04/23 We estimated the wave might target at 52.56. And we hold our long position and continue to aim at this target on 2016/04/29
This week the price move a high at 52.83 on 2016/06/09, it hit our target, and we liquidated all of our long position.
We think the Brent Crude Oil might be in a bullish market trend right now. The big wave start, but be watch out that it maybe will have a correction.
Correction Signal:
1. Satisfy with the target.
2. Weekly Chart show a big hammer.
3. Price going high, but volume decrease.
4. Friday Candle Chart was a full dark down penetrating 5 MA and 10 MA, and closed under 10 Moving Average.
5. Here (52 to 54) is another neckline range since last time(2015/08/31 to to 2015/10/09) starting to drop the price down to 27.08 on 2016/01/20. Here is heavy Lock-in Zone.
We now are free hand to observe a good change to going long.
UKOIL - Weekend tradeUKoil came down as expected - see Houston we have a problem.
Currently the price is between the 50 EMA and 100 EMA. RSI is below 35 and the StochRsi is showing signs of exhaustion and diversion is coming up.
The target of the Sept /Oct 2015 high is still fresh in the minds of the bulls and they had a day rest so I expect NY bulls to take charge shortly.
My target is just over the 54.03 to 54.29 area as I believe the bulls will want to show that they can take that level out. Remember WTI oil took the target and I cannot believe that they will leave Brent oil behind. This diversion between the two needs to be corrected.
2618 setup on OIL?Double tops appealed on 4hr chart, retracement did not pass 0.618 neck line three times. Possible large pullback on tomorrow or next week.
Challenge Neckline AgainLast week we estimated correction might target at 42.74 to 44.05, and we execute our planned to have another long position when price near the target we estimated. The trend looks like want to challenge the Neckline (48.10-48.30). This price is a big pressure during the two time frame :2015/1/20 - 2015/1/29 and 2015/10/28-2015/11/09.
Currently bullish signal will be:
1. 5 days MA cross above 10 days MA.
2. Testing 30 MA but fail to penetrate it.
3. 50 days MA cross above 200 days MA (Golden Cross)
4. Shortage supply from Pipeline Leak from Nigeria, and wildfire in Canada.
5. Strong demand from India and China.
Currently Bearish signal will be:
1. 200 days and 300 days MA is still going down.
2. Do not reach an agreement to cut product between big players.
3. Price increased sharply from 27.08 at around 77%
4. Saudi Arabia replace their minister of Energy, and Moody's downgrades Saudi Arabia credit rating on low oil price
Overall the trend is still bullish.
CorrectionTesting 230 moving average 3 times. And still standing above 230 day moving average. Weekly Close price equal to 5 days average Short term bearish equal to short short term bullish.
After 4 while solider from weekly chart, We think correction target might be at:
1. 45.31 (Reach) = 7.71 x 0.382
2. 44.41 (Reach) = 7.72 x 0.50
3. 44.05 (Near) = 11.02 x 0.382
4. 43..50 = 7.72 x 0.618
5. 42.74 = 11.02 x 0.50
6. 41.45 = 11.02 x 0.618
*7.71 = 2016/04/29 0900 high 48.26 minus 2016/04/18 0300 low: 40.55
*11.02 = 2016/04/29 0900 high 48.26 minus 2016/04/05 Low 37.24
Daily chart has 3 black crows right now, therefore, it still need to observe what direction of testing low.
Weekly: 4 while solider. Bullish. May have correction. Maybe can buy it from correction for medium term.
Monthly 3 white solider: Bullish. May have correction. Maybe can buy it from correction.for medium term.
We have bought 1/3 positions that we affordable from 44.20. and we will continue to buy the another 1/3 position if price reach near 43.50, and 42.74. we set our stop loss at 41.40
Yes, Smile!2 months ago, (2016/03/07) we draw a chart indicating maybe Brent Crude Oil Price will smile and smile.
Crude oil might follow after gold to have a big U smile curve.
Now Brent Crude Oil build a bigger smile cruve, maybe we can said that Brent Crude is now in the process turning bearish into bullish market.
Since July of 2014 bearish control the market, it might attack the price again.
If this price, 36-37(end price of first smile curve), does not break by bearish, then price might trading in the range between 38 +- 5% to 52 +-5% in the coming month.
Bullish Sign:
1. Weekly and Monthly chart appear 3 white solider candle. (Weekly chart has built 2nd 4 white solider chart. Monthly chart has just built 1st 3 white solider chart)
2. Major stock index higher high.
3. Commodities Index higher high
4. Crude Oil Physical demand is coming back
Bearish Sign:
1. Key OPEC members does not reach agreement to cut production.
2. Iran, and Russia's production are still going high.
3. 200, and 300 days Moving Average is still going down
We take profit of our 90% long position while price hit our key target. We are ready to go long while price correction down.
Overall Brent is still bullish.
Another 3 White SoliderLike what we predict on 16th, April, 2016:
"Price might test low side next week at around 41.98 to 40.75.
If this price(40.75 to 41.98) can get support, then price will go up to break 45."
This week price open test the low, and it got support at the low side. Therefore, this week closed above 45.
From weekly chart, it appears another 3 white solider. Overall is still bullish. Sound like the big bullish wave has started
We take partial profit from what we have bough before.
We estimate that price might target toward to 49.
We will ready to buy when price correction down: 3 white solider thinking logic.
0.382 of long term channel - time to reverseUKOIL remains in long term channel with tops i VII`08, II`12 and VI`14. Bottoms from XII`08 and recent I`16. 0.382 of this channel was major support throughout 2015. Should it be a right place to reverse current upward trend?
Almost Hit our Target Profit Taking PricePressure: 45 (200 day average, or 40 weekly average)
Support:: 42-42.4 original pressure, now become support.
This week closed under 40 week average(Said 200 day average.)
Price might test low side next week at around 41.98 to 40.75.
If this price(40.75 to 41.98) can get support, then price will go up to break 45.
Healthy BullishAs what we expect the Brent Crude Oil price testing 37.6 last week. And it stands well. We buy it from 38.5.
Price hit our 1st target (MA 150), we take partial profit. And looking forward the price to challenge previous high (42.52 in 18th, March, 2018.) and 200 MA (43.00)
