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Ukraine

Bonds Soar off the Russia/Ukraine ConflictBonds have soared as risk off sentiment prevails as the Ukraine conflict intensifies. Russian forces are bearing down on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine and civilian casualties are mounting. ZN has blasted off from highs at 127'08, through 127'22, and well into the 128 handle. We have cleared 128'01, the first level in the 128's, and have just broken through 128'10. With such a strong bull impulse, it is difficult not to anticipate a pullback or sideways currection at this point. We are likely to at least range at current levels, between 128'01 and 128'11, with a ceiling at 128'24. If not, expect a retracement to 127'22. Worst case, it is certainly possible that we will retrace the entire move to 127'08 (recall that gold did this just last week).
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
SPY StraddleOn the short term this looks like a textbook bull pennant Long term however it's a bear pennant (kind of?), But not a textbook one, that massive dip and massive rally messes with it I expect us to make a major move up or a major move down today or tomorrow SOTU is catalyst enough today for that imo I'm leaning towards up. The charts are better for it and I think Ukraine news is good for US, as we covered earlier Looking forward to your thoughts when you read this tldr 437.33 turns into support that holds solidly we go pew up to 440, then it's a straight shot to 447 Now if it breaks to the downside, 430.39 is the support, and if that fails we tumble all the way down to 412 "gap down" as they say Bears will do puts, Bulls will do calls, smart / safe money will do both with a straddle
AMEX:SPY
by taorgtfo
Ruble Where You Going ? Hi traders: With the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we can expect the market to be volatile and moving during an uncertainly time. As we know, USD is a safe haven currency, and here on USDRUB, we can see clear bullish price action on the bigger time frames. With many bullish impulse phases follow by bullish continuations, price is getting push up to all time highs. This is where usually price will consolidate, and potential to continue or reverse back down. For me, my personal options is leaning more upside and continuation up move. What we should wait for is some sort of bullish continuation correction on the lower time frames, to confirm the upside move. With the situation between the two countries may get worse, USDRUB could on route to a new highs. thank you
by jojofang0901
37
Oil Short?! Yes thats right folks... and here's why. In this video we explain why we are now looking to take short positions in the Oil market. TLDR: - The fears of global supply problems from Russia/Ukraine conflict could be overplayed and that supply is able to be met by other suppliers increasing their supply within OPEC+ if Oil prices become a problem (which they already are). - Politically high Oil prices are bad for governments so expect some action from policy makers if the price continues to rise much more (already seeing these reports now). - Technical Analysis suggests we are entering levels of historic resistance. - Last week (at the height of the Russia / Ukraine outbreak the Oil market sold off significantly from the current levels we are at right now. Let me know in the comments below your own thoughts on where Oil is headed next.
TVC:USOILShort
by JoelWarby
5
Supply Concerns Lift OilOil has blasted off from yesterday's levels where it gapped up to the mid 90's. We found support at 95.24, and smashed through the next level at 96.88. After that, we made run back to $100, but are facing some resistance before that. The world is rearing from Russian supply fears, as it is in the top five oil producing countries (number two in 2022 right after the US by some sources, see here and here ). There is little in the way of fundamental data to suggest lower oil prices. However, if do see a technical retracement, then 95.24 should hold, if not, there is a vacuum zone back to 92.03. Our next target is $100, then $101.46.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
2
Geopolitical Conflict Hits StocksStocks have begun to dip off of stepped up efforts with Russia to move in on Ukraine. Russian forces are close to the capital, Kyiv, and markets are reacting. We have strong safe haven inflows, as per bonds and gold, and the S&P 500 has just rejected a relative high at 4389. The Kovach OBV was increasing, but has curved over with the rejection. If we do find support at current levels, watch for a bull wedge or other bull consolidation pattern to form under 4389. If we retrace further, 4245 should provide support. If we are able to break out from 4389, 4440 is our next target, but this is not likely for today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Gold Consolidates as War Pressure Ramps UpThe price of gold is consolidating in a range between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1922.32 and 38.2% Fibonacci at 1890.01, as peace talks are threatened by Russia's intensified aggression . Depending on how the peace talks develop next, a breakout above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci may be attempted, though this is then likely to be followed by a pullback to the resistance-turned-support at 1922.32. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower limit of the channel could allow for a subsequent dropdown towards the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci, which is about to be crossed by the 100-day MA (in blue) soon. This would make the 1890.01 threshold an even more prominent turning point, which is already evident given its close proximity to the psychologically significant level at 1900.00.
G
by Trendsharks
natural gas still holding on to supply fears?on the daily time frame a head and shoulders pattern is forming. on the 1hr time frame natural gas broke the up trend, and is need for a correction. there is a regular bullish divergence forming on the 1hr as well. A regular bullish divergence indicates a bull back in the market. This is about a 100 pip move, looking for price to go back near the trendline.I am looking for an entry after this pull back, may not be ready until London X New york session. The market calmed a little when there was a discussion about releasing oil from storage in a bid to mitigate supply disruption. The release may be between 60 and 70 million barrels of oil. The EIA (International Energy Agency) is set to hold a meeting today 03/01/2022 about roles members can play in stabilizing oil markets
FX:NGASLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
3
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) TA 22.3.1Bitcoin grew yesterday as I watched it move fast. In this uptrend, it has broken its downtrend and needs to stabilize above it. If the new news of the war is not established and transmitted, it can increase the resistance between 45,000 and 51,000. Bitcoin support is in the range of 41,500. If the bitcoin uptrend slows down, altcoins can start moving well upwards. Recommend to see last idea about BITCOIN sharp move forcast ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 1.Mar.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better❤️
Long
by SDQ_Crypto
SACTION? TO THE MOON!Monthly Time-frame Bullish Harami Printed!!! Breakout to the upside is in play! Higher low is printed confirmed! Watch out for confirmed bulls back in the ball game. Russian sanction on Swift Banking was Bullish for Bitcoin as Russians transferred their funds to Cryptocurrency. Weekly Time-frame Bullish week, double bottom, Relative Strength Index (RSI) Bullish. Higher low, breaking the previous high. Awesome Oscillator (AO) printing green volume and Bullish RSI. Breaking the Ichimoku Cloud soon! If rejected at $44,070 it’s a good time to open a short for a retest at $40,972.87. 1D Time-frame Cheers for the bulls! We have broken the ichimoku Cloud, and made it a support, it looks weak breakout but will see if we can hold it as a Support. We are now ready to open a Positive Volume tomorrow. 4H Time-frame RSI is overbought, which is normal during an up-trend. Broken the cloud, printed a strong volume AO. We are done with the butterfly constriction now we are moving to the upside. We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Long
by Trade_Scholar
Buy the Dip? The stock market just did THIS!One of my must trusted signals for false breakout opportunities just triggered in the stock market on both the Nasdaq NASDAQ:QQQ and S$P 500 AMEX:SPY . If you are a regular viewer of my content you have seen me talk about this setup before as it is one of my most trusted fundamental strategies of my trading. Win or lose THIS signal we got on the Russia/Ukraine FUD is going to go down as a textbook example I will use to teach the setup for months and years to come! I am super excited to share with my viewers in real time!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by norok
7
short term buy on oilwaiting for the oullback to finish to look for an entry. May enter before market closes or after it opens around 6pm. going for about 150 pips to (8.oo to see if it will break this pervious resistance. Russia has not begun backing down from Ukriane. they bombed Kharkiv, Ukrainian. Dozens were killed and hundreds wounded. ALso there is a possibility that oil will be pulled out of storage. U.S. storage is already the lowest its been since 2002. Supply fears causes oil to go up, they will have a decision by today or tomorrow.
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
1
short term buy on gold volatile marketLooking for entry possible after market opens back up, waiting on brief pull back. Russia bombed kharkiv, Ukraine. dozens were killed and hundreds were wounded. Gold is a safe haven asset so if investors see fear in the market their money is put in gold, Russia not backing down will cause it to soar. OPEC+ is making a decision by tomorrow to release oil from storage. Our supply is the lowest its been since 2002. supply shortage scares also makes gold go up. Depending on your daily goal, I am going for 1,000 pips at 1909. I will watch and see if it goes back to second tp
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
BITCOIN THE WARRIORDue to the confliction between Ukraine and Russia , I decided to look back in to the history , and see what happened to Bitcoin , Gold and SPX when we had war or confliction. Here is the list of the wars that I mentioned in the chart : ( I understand of the ongoing wars and some other I did not mentioned ! ) 1 . Iran shoots down US drone aircraft 2 . Iranian General Assassinated 3 . Operation Martyr Soleimani 4 . Nagorno-Karabakh war 5 . Tigray War 6 . Fall of Kabul According to my studies all of the war news has been bullish for the 3 assets ! (Except for one time for gold on Tigray War which can be ignored. ) Just to be said , this would be far different if we get in to a world war ! The question is : in case of starting a war between Russia and Ukraine , what would happen to cryptocurrencies ? As a technical analyst , we always look backward and see what happened in history , then we get some information and that's where analysis starts ! So , we can say BTC and Gold are safe assets during the war , and also SPX ( focus on arms stock! they are to sell weapons ! ) Its just the same for fuel carriers and oil! Be aware , this is not financial advise , It's just a study of what happened in the history and there is no guarantee for now.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by JavadisHere
3
Seasonality In Commodities As The Spring of 2022 ApproachesCommodities can be seasonal assets. Fuel and nutritional requirements tend to reflect the weather conditions during the times of the year that are cold and when the weather warms. As February ends and March arrives this week, the old saying that March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. The oldest written reference to the “lion/lamb” proverb comes from English author Thomas Fuller, who included it in a 1732 volume of proverbs, “wise sentences, and witty sayings, ancient and modern.” It then passed to many farmer’s almanacs, but the saying is likely much older than the 18th-century reference. The end of winter- Heating fuel demand declines The beginning of spring- The driving season in gasoline and injection season in natural gas The start of the 2022 crop year The 2022 grilling season is on the horizon The three reasons 2022 may not be a typical year for seasonality As the weather warms over the coming weeks, the supply/demand equations for a host of commodities will shift. While seasonality offers opportunities to traders and speculators in the futures markets, prices tend to adjust far before the seasons change each year. Moreover, in 2022, the economic and geopolitical landscapes suggest that traditional seasonality could go out the window. The end of winter- Heating fuel demand declines In a typical year, the end of the winter season is when futures markets are already reflecting spring pricing. As March begins this week, refiners tend to produce less heating oil, and the natural gas demand remains high, but the markets see the light at the end of the peak-season tunnel. A monthly chart of the heating oil crack spread, a proxy for other distillates, including diesel and jet fuels, often weakens in March. While distillates are year-round fuels, heating oil production usually declines in March anticipating a decline in heating oil demand. Historically, natural gas tends to reflect the prospects for milder weather during the spring months in March. Natural gas reached annual lows in February, March, and April in 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2021. The beginning of spring- The driving season in gasoline and injection season in natural gas The spring and summer seasons are when people tend to put more mileage on their cars as the weather improves. Gasoline demand tends to increase at the end of the winter as refiners shift from distillate to gasoline refining. The monthly chart shows that gasoline processing spreads often move higher and peak during the spring and early summer months. Each year, the natural gas market moves from the withdrawal to the injection season during March. As production begins to flow into storage across the US, the supply-demand equation shifts, and prices tend to decline. In June 2020, natural gas fell to the lowest price in twenty-five years at $1.432 per MMBtu at the end of the second quarter. The start of the 2022 crop year As the snow melts across the fertile US plains and other crop-producing countries in the northern hemisphere, farmers begin to plant the new crops in March and April. The early spring marks the time when uncertainty about supplies peaks as the weather during the growing season is the primary factor in crop production each year. Grain and oilseed prices tend to rise during the spring and early summer as Mother Nature determines the weather conditions that determine the agricultural products that feed the world. The monthly chart of CBOT soybean futures shows that prices often move to annual highs during the spring and summer months. Uncertainty over the corn crop often pushes prices to highs during the spring and summer each year. Wheat prices display the same seasonal pattern. Wheat is the primary ingredient in bread, a critical source of nutrition for nearly eight billion people. The beginning of the crop season is when supply concerns start to increase as prices become as fickle as the weather over the coming months. The fear of drought or floods is always a key concern as the seeds go into the ground. The 2022 grilling season is on the horizon Each year, the US grilling season lasts from late May and the Memorial Day weekend through early September and the Labor Day weekend. As barbecues come out of storage across the US and family and friends gather outside, the demand for animal protein tends to rise. Futures markets tend to move higher as animal protein producers deliver cattle and hogs to processing plants in the spring to meet the increased summer requirements. Cattle and hog futures prices tend to move higher as the grilling season approaches and hit seasonal lows as it ends. Live cattle futures often display seasonal strength in the spring and summer and weakness during the fall and winter months. The monthly chart shows that feeder cattle futures tend to display seasonal strength during the grilling season. Lean hog futures display the same seasonal trading pattern in many years. The three reasons 2022 may not be a typical year for seasonality While seasonality is a critical factor for energy and agricultural commodities, 2022 is anything but an ordinary year in markets across all asset classes. At least three factors could cause markets to exacerbate or ignore seasonality over the coming months: Inflation is at the highest level in over four decades, causing prices of all goods and services to rise. Commodity prices continue to trend higher, despite the Fed’s plans to increase interest rates. The central bank remains far behind the inflationary curve, which is likely to continue the bullish trend. Russia is a leading commodity producer, supplying Europe and the world with metals, minerals, energy, and agricultural products. The Russian invasion into Ukraine led to significant sanctions, which could cause embargos, and supply chain bottlenecks, causing price distortions as availabilities decline. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. We have not experienced the current level of uncertainty in decades. The technical trend in most commodity markets remain higher, and the trends are always your best friends. Seasonality is likely to take a backseat in the current landscape. Market participants should expect the unexpected over the coming weeks and months as price variance is likely to remain elevated. Approach all markets with a clear plan for risk and rewards and stick to that plan. Never allow a short-term risk position to become a long-term investment because the price moves contrary to expectations. Seasonal factors are always critical in all raw material markets, but in 2022, inflation and geopolitical tensions are trumping the weather as the winter comes to an end. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
2
Yen posts gains despite weak dataJapan's factory output declined for a second consecutive month as supply disruptions continue to take a toll on manufacturing. Industrial production for January fell 1.3% m/m, worse than the consensus of -0.7%. There was no relief from retail sales for January, which dropped 1.9% m/m, compared to the forecast of -1.2%. Covid health restrictions contributed to the drop in consumer spending. The weak data will weigh on GDP for the first quarter, which is still expected to show a small gain. Inflation has risen but still remains below the BoJ's target of 2%, which means that the central bank can be expected to continue its loose monetary stance, at a time when most major central banks are tightening policy. The crisis in Ukraine could further muddy the outlook for the county's fragile economy. Oil has pushed above the 100-dollar level and a disruption in Russian oil deliveries to world markets will send oil prices even higher, which will raise prices and dampen consumer spending. The war in Ukraine continues, although there was a small ray of hope as Russian and Ukrainian officials met today for face-to-face talks for the first time since the Russian invasion. The crisis has shaken the financial markets and the Russian ruble plunged over the weekend in response to tough sanctions from Western countries. Along with the US dollar, the yen has been an attractive safe-haven asset for panicky investors who have been dumping riskier holdings. USD/JPY has held steady since the crisis began, unlike the other majors which have buckled under the weight of the US dollar as risk appetite has dampened. USD/JPY has support at 114.71. Next, the 100-DMA at 114.37 is providing support There is resistance at 116.06 and 116.59
by OANDA
BITCOIN ANALYSIS - WHEN WILL THE CORRECTION END?From the Chart Above we have The 360 Daily Moving Average(Blue) along with some horizontal support zones and a logarithmic growth curve. Taking a look at the 360 MA, after each bullrun, the moment price closed below it, we retraced at least 50% from the breaking point. Important to note we only closed below the 360MA when the bullrun ended and had touched resistance of the logarithmic curve. Also note that we didn't cross back above till price touched the support region of the logarithmic curve. However, we didn't touch resistance this time but closed below the 360 MA already, tho we got close enough imo. If we were to have a 50%+ retracement from the breaking point, we have a target in the region of $24-20k per bitcoin for a bottom scenario. From the Date ranges in the chart, we can also expect the bottom around April Onwards. Zooming in to current Price Action, Bitcoin managed to break the $40,000 level however, still not convincing enough. Watch for a break of the White Horizontal line and close above @$40750 before flipping bias. If you agree pls share your thoughts in the comments and leave a like. Feedback is appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RektMyMom
2
ARKK possibly worth a swing for relief rallyJust tossing this one out there: Cathie Wood's ARKK Innovation ETF is within 1% of completing a round-trip to its pre-pandemic highs. It's also at the bottom of a fairly major parallel channel that it's been forming since February last year. In purely technical terms, it looks poised for a bounce. This is not a long-term hold, especially with Tesla as the top holding. Valuations remain high, and Tesla is being investigated by the SEC. I also wouldn't use call options to play this. The options premiums are super expensive. I'm just thinking buy a few shares for a technical bounce, and maybe sell at the 20-day EMA. Counterintuitively, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a possible catalyst for a bounce. Forecasters seem to think that conflict in Ukraine will make the Fed more dovish this year, with fewer rate hikes than previously expected. $ARKK has been super sensitive to interest rate expectations, so it might be bullish for the ETF if rate expectations ease a bit. One nice thing about this trade: since we're so close to channel bottom, you can put a stop loss right beneath the channel.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2