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Ukraine

BEARISH VIEW INTACT! RISK OFF MOOD TO DRIVE EURJPY TO 125.400Bearish view still very much intact yet after EURO pushed up higher a few weeks ago, but clearly failed to break the descending channel's upper trendline. With the RUSSIA - UKRAINE crisis predicted to HIT the EUROZONE hard, we could see the safehaven currencies such as CHF, JPY & USD appreciate Vs the EURO. Based on this technical and fundamental analysis, we could see EURJPY steadily approach the 125.400 target area soon. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
The Market at WarRussia Ukraine FUD is on all the news media and social media so today I dug up a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI on Tradingview. (It's pretty cool to go back and study the market since 1897 by the way.) One prevailing sentiment, especially after today's very muted reaction to the actual "invasion", is that the market will be fine as long as Putin does not proceed further. There is some historical justification to this sentiment. One of the oddities of the history of the market is that the stock market ROSE on Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939. It was only on the invasion of France, when things "got real", that the market had a major fear crash. I hope for no war at all and I do not think there will be one now from this. I think (I hope) it is well understood that war is the literal destruction of capital and lives; lives being the true capital of nations.
TVC:DJI
by norok
3
S&P500 major red flags as fears of an all-out war become realI couldn't ignore the recent troubling news from the East and had to publish this post. Escalating military aggression in Ukraine and realistic fears of an all out open war are becoming more prominent with each day. War means markets will tank and right now the major S&P500 index is showing that. On the technical side a head and shoulders pattern on a weekly chart with RSI divergence is supporting this as well as another test of an uptrend line from May 2020. If this level breaks, potential projection of a pattern is to fall to around 3600 level. The 200SMA is also coming close to that point. A trigger for this must be geopolitical, if military aggression proceeds we could see a major fall in the markets. I hope politicians will come to their senses and stop before someone pushes the red button, but we have to be ready for anything. Good Luck!
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Antonio_trader
Brent Crude - $100 in sightBrent crude came within a whisker of $100 today for the first time since September 2014 before profit-taking kicked in. Will it eventually capture this level? There's been a number of times in recent months when $100 oil has been thrown around like it's a case of when rather than if it will hit that massive psychological level. The shortfall of supply from OPEC+ which continues to fail to hit its targets by ever-widening margins, combined with stronger than expected demand has created a very tight market and with no end in sight in the near term, the price has been naturally rising. November offered temporary reprieve, initially from the US-led coordinated SPR release as various countries sought to address the imbalance and lower prices, and then from the emergence of omicron which had a far greater impact. Once the threat of omicron was deemed to not be too great, the price started climbing again and it hasn't really stopped. The crisis now in Ukraine has just added to the rally, with traders now pricing in additional risk premium in the event of Russian supplies being hit. This brings us back to the initial question, will it surpass $100? There doesn't appear to be any lack of momentum, despite the price rallying 50% from the December lows. That was starting to emerge but the escalation at the Ukrainian border has seen that reverse. In terms of how far it can go if it does go above $100, that depends on what happens in Ukraine, not to mention if a new nuclear deal is signed between the US and Iran that could quickly see 1.3 million barrels per day back in the market. The next test could come around $105, where it saw plenty of activity almost a decade ago. The key will be the events on the border but in the meantime, momentum indicators could give us an idea of whether the break of $100 will accelerate the rally or not.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
Macro market update - Traditional & CryptoHello everyone! In this idea we'll talk about the current macro environment and give updates on the most important markets. Although I am not a political analyst and definitely not an expert on the Russia/Ukraine conflict I need to start from there, as the situation seems to be getting worse by the day. For now, there is no clarity as to what will happen next, even though some sort of agreement/resolution is still possible, probabilities currently seem stacked in favor of a war breaking out. Of course, the impact this would have on markets would be significant and that's something markets are already pricing in. The key issue here is that the markets were already severely stressed due to high inflation (shortages), world economy drowning in debt and all sorts of issues, while bond yields were going higher. Therefore, it isn't just that conflict in isolation, it is the conflict at a time where nothing seems to be going right. Again, I have no idea what will happen or how other countries will try to interfere if Russia invades Ukraine, however there is no way there won't be all sorts of issues, especially around energy markets and especially in Europe. Just the uncertainty around energy prices which could cause another inflation spike, at a time where people are demanding governments and Central banks to do something about inflation, while markets are overvalued and are trending down, is not a good combination. With the current events it looks like the probability of the Fed raising rates by 50 bps in March has come down significantly. It is pretty normal to expect the Fed to not try and push things at this stage and even slow down a bit, as they don't want to spook the markets even more. From now on they can blame the fact that they aren't raising rates on the uncertainty caused by external factors which affect the global economy. The fact is that inflation was set to slow down dramatically in 2022 as demand has been going down, liquidity has been drying up and supply chain issues have eased significantly. Hence the Fed raising rates wouldn’t really do much to slow down inflation and it would be just a political move. At the same time, they know they won't really be able to raise rates above 2-3%, while the market is already indicating that in 2023 they will have to cut rates. The yield curve is already inverting and the 2y10y spread is already at 40bps. Essentially they’ve been trapped and a war would be able to get them out of their hole is a war. Why? Because in my opinion bond yields could fall dramatically as investors try to get into the most safe and liquid instruments, while the government will force the Fed to do anything it can to support it and tell it to forget fighting inflation. In the short term however, we could see a spike in bond yields (2y to 2-2.5% and 10y to 2.5-3%) as the market might initially anticipate higher inflation due to more spending by the government and higher inflation due to higher energy prices. Now the truth is that even though I do expect yields to come back down eventually and resume their long-term downtrend, I could easily be wrong and yields just go up from here. We are at a situation where oil prices could skyrocket and supply chains break down again, while governments trying to print their way out of this hole. At that stage I think the market will want to mostly hold US treasuries as they are the safest and most liquid instruments and it will refuse to create money (banks won’t be willing to lend to anyone other than the government). That would be the point where the market doesn't want to take risks and would be willing to not try and beat inflation. Someone might be now thinking 'well that's crazy, you always have to beat inflation'. Well, that's not always the case and certainly not the case for everyone. At situations like this most people are losing no matter what, as when there are shortages, waste of resources, unnecessary deaths and destruction, there are less winners than usual. Most people are used to living in an environment when the pie is growing, not shrinking... At the same time, it is clear that in the long term the ones that have to lose the most are bond holders, either nominal or real terms, although in the short term they might see tremendous gains once bonds bottom (yields top). The reason behind this is that there is no easy way to get out of this massive debt - low growth environment the global economy is in, without a massive fiat currency devaluation. So let's go through the charts one by one, starting with bonds. It's very clear that we are getting closer and closer to the key resistance. Bonds are at support (yields at resistance), but the strongest support is 6-7% lower (~50 bps). It is unclear what the bond market is signaling for now, but bonds and stocks going lower would a major sign of trouble in the short term. Commodities do look pretty strong, with Gold finally starting to shine, although until we get a close above 1960 we could expect some chop. My view on Gold is that it could get even all the way down to 1350 until it really breaks above 1960, however a breakout looks more and more likely. Oil is also looking pretty strong, even though it might be somewhat overvalued here. It is very clear that there supply of oil is pretty low and barely keeps up with demand, despite the fact that demand has gone down. A war would probably have a massive impact on the market, with Oil potentially making new ATHs in 2022-2023. Like I had mentioned before, the 90-110$ region has a decent amount of resistance, so we could continue to see some chop in that area. Based on the current price action, buying at 75$ would be best potential buy as it would be very hard to see lower prices. 55$ is also possible, but we'd need to see the global economy crash, while a war doesn't happen for it to get down there. Natural gas in Europe seems to have stabilized, and we could see it go down in case there are no sanctions on Russia or because the US starts exporting some of it to Europe. However we are seeing NatGas slowly trying to go higher in the US, and based on the current price action it looks like it will trade above 6.5$ in 2022-2023. The USD is at a weird place as against most developing market currencies it seems to be very strong, but against most developed market currencies weaker than expected. Unfortunately I wasn't able to share a index I created of the USD vs developing markets, but I am able to share an index of the USD vs developed markets, as the DXY isn't the best index out there. Based on it it is clear that the USD is trending higher in the medium term, but it has been going sideways for a very long time and has reached an area of resistance where it could potentially reversed. At the end of the day, there is a need for a weaker dollar and this current set of circumstances could definitely lead into a weaker dollar in the short term. Personally I don't believe that the USD is done, I do believe it has more upside and that it is the strongest currency out there... However I also do see the potential of it going much lower as 1) US prints more than the rest, 2) US rates fall harder than the rest, 3) Everyone tries to get away from the dollar strandard. Stocks aren't in a great place, as the Nasdaq 100 just made a new low and is flirting with its 400 DMA, the S&P 500 retested its lows and the 300 DMA, while the Russell 2000 looks like it just finished its throwback after a massive distribution and could fall another 15-20%. It is currently very clear that stocks are in a short-medium term downtrend, which is very close to turning into a full blow bear market if they continue lower. In my opinion the long term uptrend is intact, and as the market just managed to sweep some major lows and bounce, this could be the bottom. Or at least I should say it has to be it, or I see stocks going down another 10-20% before they full bottom. At the moment the S&P looks the strongest index out of the 3 and could potentially bottom around 3900-4000. This is the first place I'd be looking to buy, even if it is just for a bounce. For Nasdaq it is very unclear to me where the bottom might be, however for the Russell it is very clear that a potential bottom could come in the 1600-1740 zone. Essentially expecting for the 'vaccine' trade to reverse and buy the retest of the 2018-2020 highs. The one chart that is telling me there is more pain coming, is the VIX. Based on the current setup it looks like Volatility is in an uptrend and that there is a need for an explosive move higher before it reverses. It would actually be very odd for it to top here, after slowly going higher. In my previous analyses I talked about how I expect the VIX to get to 48 before it reverses, as given the current circumstances it is impossible for me to imagine that we won't see the market extremely fearful due to major changes in the world. Things aren't all that great and there is a lot of change going on in all sorts of directions, therefore I expect to see some sort of shock before I believe the bottom is in for stocks. Again, it is possible that things might have bottomed here, as we got a dip while the stock market was closed and some major lows have been swept, yet it is very hard to imagine that in 2022 we won't get a major crash, unless the Fed doesn't raise rates, resumes QE and there is no war. Finally, the Crypto market is in a similar state as stocks. The two have been heavily correlated since November and they probably will continue being correlated until we get a major crash. At that point I do see Crypto bottom first and the rally much harder than stocks, as it will benefit the most from an environment of sanctions, high inflation and more money printing. In my opinion, Bitcoin will probably be the one that performs the best over the next few weeks / months, as it is the one that has been going sideways the longest, while it is the safest and most liquid asset in crypto, with the strongest narrative in such an environment (digital gold). BTCUSD has been in a very clear downtrend and the rejection at 46k just confirmed that until we close above all the major moving averages, anything between 20k and 28k is possible. Going lower would be pretty hard and the most likely scenario over the next few weeks / months, is a bottom at 24-25k. Won't go into more detail here as I've done so twice before and I definitely recommend people to read my previous analyses on the crypto market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitcoinMacro
XAU/USD tests key technical levels after temporarily rising Gold (XAU/USD) retreats to $1,906, after refreshing multi-day high during Tuesday’s Asian session. Even so, the bullion prices print 0.15% intraday gains while poking June 2021 top amid the gradual run-up since late January. The metal’s recent rally could be linked to the headlines concerning Russia’s probable invasion of Ukraine as Moscow orders troops inside Eastern Ukrainian states, citing their peacemaking efforts. Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s signing of a decree "on friendship and cooperation" with Donetsk and Luhansk triggered a risk-off mood. In a reaction to escalated fears of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations (UN), the UK, and the US called for emergency meetings while Britain and Canada announced readiness for fresh sanctions against Russia. Additionally, Yomiuri mentioned Japan’s warning to stop the chip exports to Moscow if it invades Ukraine whereas Australia PM Scott Morrison said that they will be in lockstep with allies on sanctions on Russia. Other than the geopolitics, downbeat US Treasury yields and receding favors for a 0.50% Fed-rate-hike in March also underpin the XAU/USD upside. That said, the return of the US and Canadian traders will join the preliminary US PMIs for February to propel gold prices whereas headlines concerning Russia-Ukraine will gain major attention. Tensions in the Ukraine/Russia region alongside Russia’s President Vladimir Putin recognizing two separatists in Eastern Ukraine regions increased appetite for the safe-haven status of the yellow metal. At the time of writing, Gold is trading at $1,910, and up in the week by some 0.60%. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚’𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐬𝐤 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐮𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐤 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 On Monday during the North American session, the two separatist leaders sought recognition by Russia, which they got after a “long” speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who put in perspective the history of Ukraine and Russia. That said, Putin urged the Russian Parliament to support the decisions, signing a decree of cooperation and friendship with Donetsk and Luhansk leaders. Russian President Putin ordered a peacekeeping operation in eastern Ukraine’s two separatist regions while reiterating that the West will impose sanctions anyway, adding that Russia has the right to take retaliatory measures. The non-yielding metal buyers took advantage of the US holiday observant of President’s day and pushed XAU/USD from $1,896 to $1,914, as war drums in Ukraine do not appear to fade. The President of the European Commission said that the recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a “blatant violation of international law as well as of the Minsk agreements.” She emphasized that the EU will react with sanctions against those involved in this “illegal act.” Across the pond, US President Joe Biden spoke with Ukraine President Zelensky. Further, US President Biden signed an executive order banning new investment, trade, and financing to the DNR and LNR regions while saying that he would announce additional measures. In the same rhetoric, Poland’s Prime Minister said that Russia’s decision is an act of aggression against Ukraine and said that sanctions should be imposed immediately. Meanwhile, in the UK, Foreign Minister Truss said that the UK would be announcing sanctions on Russia tomorrow in response. XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook: Gold is upward biased from a technical perspective. The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside well below XAU/USD spot price, with a bullish slope. That, alongside the break of a nine-month-old downslope resistance trendline, exacerbated the uptrend, helping XAU bulls reclaim the $1900 figure. XAU/USD first resistance would be $1,916. Breach of the latter will expose January 2021 highs at $1,959, which once cleared could pave the way towards $2,000. - It's important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long-term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are masters of RISK. Please comment, like, and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by AliSamadiTR
Tightening OIL Supply Could Push USDCAD To 1.25000!With the RUSSIAN-UKRAINE Crisis hitting the market hard, the safehaven currencies such as the USD, JPY & CHF have been gaining grounds against their counterparts. In such scenario GOLD has also been appreciating as well due to its obvious safehaven demand. Furthermore, OIL has been appreciating as well but not as a safehaven! OIL has been appreciating simply because of the tightening demand as the world gets ready to impose strict sanctions against Russia. Due to this the supply will likely be reduced thus driving the OIL price higher. SO WHAT HAS USDCAD TO DO WITH ALL THIS? Canada being a major OIL exporting player globally, its all simple. With the demand for OIL likely to rise soon, CANADA could soon start to increase their OIL exports to meet the demand. Due to this the CANADIAN DOLLAR would likely appreciate against most currencies! BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF USDCAD So with fundamental factors in favor of CAD, the technical picture is still developing. Have a look at the main chart to have a better understanding. The rising trendline needs to break in either two likely scenario. Once this happens we can expect the price to start inching closer to the next psychological support at 1.25000 level! Trade with confirmation with the market gives you. do not rush into decisions. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
$GOLD 15min TA : 02.22.22 : +100 Pips ✅✅ Total Results so far : +100 Pips 😍🚀🔥 Previous Analysis : By analysing the gold chart in 15-min timeframe, we see that the price is consolidating above $ 1903 zone . With the market opening, If the price maintained at $ 1901 support , we can expect growth to $ 1906, $ 1908 and $ 1910 levels (respectively). Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 22.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
Yen steady ahead of BoJ Core CPIThe Japanese yen has started the week quietly and is trading slightly below the 115 line. The focus will be on Japanese inflation indicators in the coming week, with three events on the economic calendar. Like other major economies, Japan is dealing with a rise in inflation, although the pace has been much more moderate than what we're seeing in the UK or the US. Inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%, so there is no talk of raising interest rates in the near future. The January reading of BoJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Tuesday. The indicator rose 0.9% y/y in December, up from 0.8% and its highest level since May 2016. On Friday, Tokyo Core CPI for February will be released. After a weak reading of 0.2% y/y in December, the indicator is expected to rise to 0.4%.  The crisis brewing in Ukraine remains at a critical stage, as there have been further skirmishes between the Ukraine army and the pro-Russian separatists, with fears that Russia is deliberately creating these flare-ups in order to justify an invasion of Ukraine. Russia has amassed over one hundred thousand troops around the border with Ukraine and could choose to invade at any time. However, there have been some diplomatic moves in the meantime, notably a possible summit between Presidents Biden and  Putin this week. Biden expressed his willingness to meet Putin if there was no invasion. We can expect a ping-pong reaction from the markets in the coming days, with market direction dependent to a large extent on what President Putin does next. 114.61 is under strong pressure in support. Below, there is support at 114.16 There is resistance at 115.68 and 116.30
by OANDA
Hydrocarbons Benefit From Rising Geopolitical RiskCrude oil came close to a triple-digit price last week for the first time since 2014. Natural gas prices have soared in Europe and Asia, and US prices rose to the highest level since 2008 when the February NYMEX futures contract spiked to over $7.30 per MMBtu in late January. The chicken and egg economic dilemma may be, which came first, inflation or rising energy prices? Energy prices continue to trend higher Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes US energy policy inhibits new production Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus that followed the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse. As prices began to rise, the shift in US energy policy to address climate change poured gasoline on the inflationary fire. In January, the consumer price index rose to 7.5%, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 6.0% higher, the highest level in over four decades. While the core number omits energy prices, energy is an input cost for goods and services measured in core CPI. The producer price index rose by 9.7% in January. The bottom line is that if rising energy prices did not ignite inflation, it is fanning the flames. Meanwhile, based on a 7.5% inflation rate, the US Fed would need to increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points thirty times for real rates to be at zero percent. While the Fed may choose to increase the short-term rate by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, the rise would be nowhere near the level that would push real interest rates out of negative territory. While inflation pushes all prices higher, energy markets face two other issues that could prove explosive. OPEC and Russia now control crude oil pricing, and Russia’s expansionary actions threaten to make petroleum a political and economic tool. Energy prices continue to trend higher Last week, crude oil prices rose to new multi-year highs. The monthly chart shows nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $95.82 per barrel before pulling back to the $91.50 level at the end of last week. Crude oil continues to trend higher towards a triple-digit price. The current technical target stands at the June 2014 $107.73 per barrel high. Nearby Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, the pricing benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s petroleum production and consumption, reached $96.78 per barrel last week. Brent’s technical target stands at the June 2014 $115.71 high. In February 2021, NYMEX and Brent crude futures traded to respective highs of $63.81 and $67.70 per barrel. At the $4.45 per MMBtu level on February 18, nearby NYMEX natural gas futures were well above the February 2021 $3.316 peak. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam at $162.35 was over double the February 2021 $68.65 per ton high. The bottom line is fossil fuel prices have exploded, and the trends remain higher in early 2022. Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes The conflict between Russia and the US and its NATO partners is that the Russians consider Ukraine Western Russia, while the US and Europe believe the country is part of a free Eastern Europe. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the US administration warns that an attack and incursion is “imminent.” While negotiations and discussions continued at the end of last week, President Putin is not backing down. The US and Europe have threatened severe sanctions, but Russia and China recently agreed on mutual support, making sanctions toothless. Since 2016, Russia has become an influential nonmember of the international oil cartel. OPEC is not OPEC+ with the plus being the cooperation with Moscow. President Putin’s clever inroads into the cartel increased Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East together with alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments. OPEC does not make a move without Russian agreement these days, and a conflict that leads to sanctions could cause oil embargos aside from the logistical challenges created by war. Fighting in Ukraine could cause crude oil’s price to spike higher. Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher and an elevator lower. However, the current geopolitical environment increases the odds of a sudden rally. The oil market has not experienced an event-driven price explosion since the evening in August 1990 when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait and nearby futures doubled in a matter of hours. US energy policy inhibits new production In early 2021, US energy policy experienced an overnight transformation. On his first day in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline that transported petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May 2021, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. Increasing regulations that address climate change favors alternative and renewable energy sources and inhibits fossil fuel production and consumption. Aside from handing pricing power back to OPEC+, the administration’s policy shift created entry barriers for new companies in the traditional energy markets. Addressing climate change is a multi-decade initiative as the US and world continue to depend on fossil fuels for power. However, the administration appears to have put the policy horse before the cart as hydrocarbon output is not keeping pace with demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, daily production at 11.6 million barrels per day is 11.5% below the March 2020 high. Moreover, oil and oil product stockpiles remain below the five-year average. Crude oil inventories were down 11%, gasoline was 3% lower, and distillate stocks were 19% below the average level over the past five years. While the US policies weigh on output, the demand is booming. Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures After decades of striving for energy independence from the Middle East, the US energy policy handed the pricing power back to the cartel in 2021. As oil prices rose, the administration asked OPEC+ to increase output twice in 2021, but the cartel refused. In November 2021, the President released fifty million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve. The release amounted to three days of consumption, and the oil price continued to rally after reaching a higher low in early December. While the pandemic-inspired monetary and fiscal policies and supply chain bottlenecks created inflationary pressures, the US energy policy has exacerbated the economic condition leading to an increasing cost of all goods and services. OPEC+ suffered as US shale production increased over the past years. In 2022, it is payback time for the cartel as they would rather sell one barrel at $100 than two at $50. Meanwhile, in his standoff with the US and Europe, crude oil availability and prices are a negotiating tool and potential economic weapon for the Russian President. Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The higher the crude oil price rises, the greater the odds of a correction. The last downdraft in the crude oil futures market began in late October when the nearby NYMEX futures contract fell from $85.41 to $62.43 or 26.9% in six weeks. The $62.43 level was a marginally higher low than the August 2021 $61.74 bottom, keeping the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. At the end of 2021, crude oil posted its seventh consecutive quarterly gain. A quarterly chart illustrates a close above the December 31, 2021, $75.45 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract will mark the eighth consecutive quarterly gain. As of the end of last week, the price was substantially above that level. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the trajectory of crude oil over the past weeks has increased the odds of a correction and elevator ride lower. However, the geopolitical landscape, US energy policy, OPEC+’s desire for payback, and rising inflation continue to create an almost perfect bullish storm for the energy commodity that powers the world. While many market participants are watching the $100 level, the potential for a challenge of the 2008 all-time high at over $147 per barrel in WTI and Brent futures could be on the horizon in the current environment. Crude oil’s rise may result from monetary and fiscal policies and a political agenda to address climate change, but it has become a driving inflationary force. A more effective tool to stomp on inflation may be increasing US fossil fuel output to push prices lower instead of relying on monetary policy via interest rate hikes. --- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
2
Europe Looks Beyond Russia for Natural Gas. LNGIt takes a brave investor to bet on the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s saber rattling around his neighbor Ukraine. One result of the Ukraine crisis seems more predictable: The European Union will look to cut its dependence on Russian natural gas, which currently accounts for 40% of consumption. Companies from Norway to Texas might benefit. The simplest way to replace Russian flows, if you were sitting over a game of Risk on a rainy afternoon, would be U.S. liquefied natural gas. America has more gas in the ground than it can use domestically. LNG output jumped 42% year on year in the first half of 2021. It could climb another 80% over the next five years, says Randy Giveans, head of energy maritime equity research at Jefferies. Top producer Cheniere Energy LNG+0.12% is earning $100 million on every shipload right now, Giveans estimates. Its stock has risen by two-thirds over the past year. The first position was bought last Friday at 116$. Long-term deal.
LLong
by MaksymKonstantynov
2
Pound steady as retail sales reboundUK retail sales rebounded in January, with a gain of 1.9% m/m, its highest monthly gain since April 2021. The increase followed a decline of 4.0% in December and beat the consensus of 1.0%. The Omicron variant of corona continues to have a significant impact on consumer spending. The December drop was a result of consumers doing their Christmas shopping in October and November, while the January rise reflected the easing of health restrictions. With Covid regulations set to expire due to falling infection rates, we should see consumer spending continue to accelerate. The Bank of England remains under strong pressure to raise rates at its meeting in March. The markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in March at 100%, and the BoE will likely follow up with more hikes until inflation, which is at a 30-year high, is brought down. We can expect the BoE to deliver a more gradual pace of rate hikes than what has been priced by the markets. The Russia/Ukraine border remains extremely tense, although a feared invasion on Wednesday did not materialize. Tensions heightened on Thursday after a skirmish in a border region which the West feared was a pretext for a full-scale invasion. This sent the financial markets tumbling as risk sentiment dissipated. The US has disputed Russia's claim that it has reduced its forces on the border and says an invasion could occur at any time. Still, there is a ray of light for a diplomatic solution, as the US and Russian foreign ministers will meet next week, so an invasion appears to be on ice, at least for now. It's a safe bet that market direction next week will be largely set by developments in the Ukraine crisis and market participants should be prepared for volatility. There is resistance at 1.3640. and 1.3719 GBP/USD has support at 1.3487 and 1.3413 .
by OANDA
BITCOIN Daily TA : 02.18.22 $BTCAs you can see, the price broke its uptrend and closed below the 50-day moving average (50MA) , The next bearish target will be in the range of 39300 $ to 39700 $ and after that 34000 $ to 36800 $ ... Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 18.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
8
GOLD SHORT TO 1840This is a follow on from the last analysis I posted which you can see below or by going on my TradingView profile. The last analysis was on the 4 hour TF showing where I'm expecting market to correct itself. Whereas, this analysis is the 1 hour TF showing that sub (micro) waves that are going on within the 4 hour candles. We can see that Gold has just finished its 5 wave move inside Wave 5, along with showing that buyers are now losing momentum as market is overbought. This is another confluence to go short now. All of my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. Feel free to follow my TradingView in order to keep up to date with all the latest analysis. Drop a like if you agree with this chart analysis or let me know what you think!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments