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Yen steady ahead of BoJ Core CPIThe Japanese yen has started the week quietly and is trading slightly below the 115 line. The focus will be on Japanese inflation indicators in the coming week, with three events on the economic calendar. Like other major economies, Japan is dealing with a rise in inflation, although the pace has been much more moderate than what we're seeing in the UK or the US. Inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%, so there is no talk of raising interest rates in the near future. The January reading of BoJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Tuesday. The indicator rose 0.9% y/y in December, up from 0.8% and its highest level since May 2016. On Friday, Tokyo Core CPI for February will be released. After a weak reading of 0.2% y/y in December, the indicator is expected to rise to 0.4%.  The crisis brewing in Ukraine remains at a critical stage, as there have been further skirmishes between the Ukraine army and the pro-Russian separatists, with fears that Russia is deliberately creating these flare-ups in order to justify an invasion of Ukraine. Russia has amassed over one hundred thousand troops around the border with Ukraine and could choose to invade at any time. However, there have been some diplomatic moves in the meantime, notably a possible summit between Presidents Biden and  Putin this week. Biden expressed his willingness to meet Putin if there was no invasion. We can expect a ping-pong reaction from the markets in the coming days, with market direction dependent to a large extent on what President Putin does next. 114.61 is under strong pressure in support. Below, there is support at 114.16 There is resistance at 115.68 and 116.30
by OANDA
Hydrocarbons Benefit From Rising Geopolitical RiskCrude oil came close to a triple-digit price last week for the first time since 2014. Natural gas prices have soared in Europe and Asia, and US prices rose to the highest level since 2008 when the February NYMEX futures contract spiked to over $7.30 per MMBtu in late January. The chicken and egg economic dilemma may be, which came first, inflation or rising energy prices? Energy prices continue to trend higher Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes US energy policy inhibits new production Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus that followed the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse. As prices began to rise, the shift in US energy policy to address climate change poured gasoline on the inflationary fire. In January, the consumer price index rose to 7.5%, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 6.0% higher, the highest level in over four decades. While the core number omits energy prices, energy is an input cost for goods and services measured in core CPI. The producer price index rose by 9.7% in January. The bottom line is that if rising energy prices did not ignite inflation, it is fanning the flames. Meanwhile, based on a 7.5% inflation rate, the US Fed would need to increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points thirty times for real rates to be at zero percent. While the Fed may choose to increase the short-term rate by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, the rise would be nowhere near the level that would push real interest rates out of negative territory. While inflation pushes all prices higher, energy markets face two other issues that could prove explosive. OPEC and Russia now control crude oil pricing, and Russia’s expansionary actions threaten to make petroleum a political and economic tool. Energy prices continue to trend higher Last week, crude oil prices rose to new multi-year highs. The monthly chart shows nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $95.82 per barrel before pulling back to the $91.50 level at the end of last week. Crude oil continues to trend higher towards a triple-digit price. The current technical target stands at the June 2014 $107.73 per barrel high. Nearby Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, the pricing benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s petroleum production and consumption, reached $96.78 per barrel last week. Brent’s technical target stands at the June 2014 $115.71 high. In February 2021, NYMEX and Brent crude futures traded to respective highs of $63.81 and $67.70 per barrel. At the $4.45 per MMBtu level on February 18, nearby NYMEX natural gas futures were well above the February 2021 $3.316 peak. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam at $162.35 was over double the February 2021 $68.65 per ton high. The bottom line is fossil fuel prices have exploded, and the trends remain higher in early 2022. Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes The conflict between Russia and the US and its NATO partners is that the Russians consider Ukraine Western Russia, while the US and Europe believe the country is part of a free Eastern Europe. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the US administration warns that an attack and incursion is “imminent.” While negotiations and discussions continued at the end of last week, President Putin is not backing down. The US and Europe have threatened severe sanctions, but Russia and China recently agreed on mutual support, making sanctions toothless. Since 2016, Russia has become an influential nonmember of the international oil cartel. OPEC is not OPEC+ with the plus being the cooperation with Moscow. President Putin’s clever inroads into the cartel increased Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East together with alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments. OPEC does not make a move without Russian agreement these days, and a conflict that leads to sanctions could cause oil embargos aside from the logistical challenges created by war. Fighting in Ukraine could cause crude oil’s price to spike higher. Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher and an elevator lower. However, the current geopolitical environment increases the odds of a sudden rally. The oil market has not experienced an event-driven price explosion since the evening in August 1990 when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait and nearby futures doubled in a matter of hours. US energy policy inhibits new production In early 2021, US energy policy experienced an overnight transformation. On his first day in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline that transported petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May 2021, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. Increasing regulations that address climate change favors alternative and renewable energy sources and inhibits fossil fuel production and consumption. Aside from handing pricing power back to OPEC+, the administration’s policy shift created entry barriers for new companies in the traditional energy markets. Addressing climate change is a multi-decade initiative as the US and world continue to depend on fossil fuels for power. However, the administration appears to have put the policy horse before the cart as hydrocarbon output is not keeping pace with demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, daily production at 11.6 million barrels per day is 11.5% below the March 2020 high. Moreover, oil and oil product stockpiles remain below the five-year average. Crude oil inventories were down 11%, gasoline was 3% lower, and distillate stocks were 19% below the average level over the past five years. While the US policies weigh on output, the demand is booming. Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures After decades of striving for energy independence from the Middle East, the US energy policy handed the pricing power back to the cartel in 2021. As oil prices rose, the administration asked OPEC+ to increase output twice in 2021, but the cartel refused. In November 2021, the President released fifty million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve. The release amounted to three days of consumption, and the oil price continued to rally after reaching a higher low in early December. While the pandemic-inspired monetary and fiscal policies and supply chain bottlenecks created inflationary pressures, the US energy policy has exacerbated the economic condition leading to an increasing cost of all goods and services. OPEC+ suffered as US shale production increased over the past years. In 2022, it is payback time for the cartel as they would rather sell one barrel at $100 than two at $50. Meanwhile, in his standoff with the US and Europe, crude oil availability and prices are a negotiating tool and potential economic weapon for the Russian President. Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The higher the crude oil price rises, the greater the odds of a correction. The last downdraft in the crude oil futures market began in late October when the nearby NYMEX futures contract fell from $85.41 to $62.43 or 26.9% in six weeks. The $62.43 level was a marginally higher low than the August 2021 $61.74 bottom, keeping the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. At the end of 2021, crude oil posted its seventh consecutive quarterly gain. A quarterly chart illustrates a close above the December 31, 2021, $75.45 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract will mark the eighth consecutive quarterly gain. As of the end of last week, the price was substantially above that level. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the trajectory of crude oil over the past weeks has increased the odds of a correction and elevator ride lower. However, the geopolitical landscape, US energy policy, OPEC+’s desire for payback, and rising inflation continue to create an almost perfect bullish storm for the energy commodity that powers the world. While many market participants are watching the $100 level, the potential for a challenge of the 2008 all-time high at over $147 per barrel in WTI and Brent futures could be on the horizon in the current environment. Crude oil’s rise may result from monetary and fiscal policies and a political agenda to address climate change, but it has become a driving inflationary force. A more effective tool to stomp on inflation may be increasing US fossil fuel output to push prices lower instead of relying on monetary policy via interest rate hikes. --- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
2
Europe Looks Beyond Russia for Natural Gas. LNGIt takes a brave investor to bet on the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s saber rattling around his neighbor Ukraine. One result of the Ukraine crisis seems more predictable: The European Union will look to cut its dependence on Russian natural gas, which currently accounts for 40% of consumption. Companies from Norway to Texas might benefit. The simplest way to replace Russian flows, if you were sitting over a game of Risk on a rainy afternoon, would be U.S. liquefied natural gas. America has more gas in the ground than it can use domestically. LNG output jumped 42% year on year in the first half of 2021. It could climb another 80% over the next five years, says Randy Giveans, head of energy maritime equity research at Jefferies. Top producer Cheniere Energy LNG+0.12% is earning $100 million on every shipload right now, Giveans estimates. Its stock has risen by two-thirds over the past year. The first position was bought last Friday at 116$. Long-term deal.
LLong
by MaksymKonstantynov
2
Pound steady as retail sales reboundUK retail sales rebounded in January, with a gain of 1.9% m/m, its highest monthly gain since April 2021. The increase followed a decline of 4.0% in December and beat the consensus of 1.0%. The Omicron variant of corona continues to have a significant impact on consumer spending. The December drop was a result of consumers doing their Christmas shopping in October and November, while the January rise reflected the easing of health restrictions. With Covid regulations set to expire due to falling infection rates, we should see consumer spending continue to accelerate. The Bank of England remains under strong pressure to raise rates at its meeting in March. The markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in March at 100%, and the BoE will likely follow up with more hikes until inflation, which is at a 30-year high, is brought down. We can expect the BoE to deliver a more gradual pace of rate hikes than what has been priced by the markets. The Russia/Ukraine border remains extremely tense, although a feared invasion on Wednesday did not materialize. Tensions heightened on Thursday after a skirmish in a border region which the West feared was a pretext for a full-scale invasion. This sent the financial markets tumbling as risk sentiment dissipated. The US has disputed Russia's claim that it has reduced its forces on the border and says an invasion could occur at any time. Still, there is a ray of light for a diplomatic solution, as the US and Russian foreign ministers will meet next week, so an invasion appears to be on ice, at least for now. It's a safe bet that market direction next week will be largely set by developments in the Ukraine crisis and market participants should be prepared for volatility. There is resistance at 1.3640. and 1.3719 GBP/USD has support at 1.3487 and 1.3413 .
by OANDA
BITCOIN Daily TA : 02.18.22 $BTCAs you can see, the price broke its uptrend and closed below the 50-day moving average (50MA) , The next bearish target will be in the range of 39300 $ to 39700 $ and after that 34000 $ to 36800 $ ... Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 18.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
8
GOLD SHORT TO 1840This is a follow on from the last analysis I posted which you can see below or by going on my TradingView profile. The last analysis was on the 4 hour TF showing where I'm expecting market to correct itself. Whereas, this analysis is the 1 hour TF showing that sub (micro) waves that are going on within the 4 hour candles. We can see that Gold has just finished its 5 wave move inside Wave 5, along with showing that buyers are now losing momentum as market is overbought. This is another confluence to go short now. All of my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. Feel free to follow my TradingView in order to keep up to date with all the latest analysis. Drop a like if you agree with this chart analysis or let me know what you think!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
EURUSD 4H TA : 02.17.22 (Update)Two possible scenarios are marked on the chart . As you can see the price reached an important resistance range and we have to wait for break or rejection from this range and after that we can look for a trigger ... Last Analysis : Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 17.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
by ArmanShabanTrading
13
BTC Update BTC is trading in a range, we are seeing some volatility in the market due to Fed meetings and the Russia/Ukraine drama. However Ukraine announced legalization of Bitcoin there, news is just coming out now for that. BTC.D is also dropping which indicates alts are holding their price better, as BTC is dropping more then alts. Will be good to pick alts for a swing here but stop loss must be used for if BTC drops below $41,500. As far as now, no need to worry unless BTC drops bellow $41,500, and no need to get excited unless BTC breaks $45,800. Trade the range, trade safely.
by sebastianjohansen
1
XAUUSD ANALYSISHey traders, above is an overview on gold and the most important zones to watch, we have a lot of criteria that indicates that gold is on a bullish momentum, first of all we have a bullish AUD that correlates positively with gold, Secondly as you should know Gold and USD have a negative correlation together, and USD is still performing bearish due to the Ukraine's matter so more weakness on USD must push Gold more up in the medium term at least above 1900s zones. then we can expect some potential Pullback arond 1915 zone.. i hope you to trade safe especially with all the environment of currencies with Ukraine's situation, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
2
Japanese yen drifting, Fed minutes nextThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week and is trading at 115.46 in the North American session, down 0.12% on the day. The US dollar enjoyed a boost earlier in the week as tensions between Russia and the West reached a fever pitch. Now that the situation has stabilized somewhat, investors are breathing easier and the dollar has lost ground. Still, there is apprehension in the air and a lack of clarity as to what happens next. Russia says that it has moved some troops away from attack positions, but the US says there is no proof of this. President Biden took to the airwaves on Tuesday and warned the Russians of severe consequences if it attacked Ukraine while saying it was not too late to reach a diplomatic solution. In the US, a strong retail sales report for January provided something for investors to digest other than news from Ukraine. Retail Sales jumped 3.8% m/m, crushing the estimate of 2.0% and rebounding from the 2.5% decline in December. High inflation helped boost the retail sales numbers, but consumers are buying more goods and services as well. Investors will now shift their attention to the Fed minutes, which will be released later today. We've been hearing a hawkish message from some FOMC members of late, and the minutes could well reflect the hawkish pivot that the Fed has reluctantly embraced due to red-hot inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently abandoned his stance that inflation was transitory and a March liftoff for hikes is essentially a done deal. The markets have priced in six hikes, although some FOMC members have suggested that three or four hikes will suffice to rein in inflation close to the Fed's target of 2 per cent. There is weak resistance at 115.56. Above, there is resistance at 114.52 There is support at 112.87 and 112.26
by OANDA
Russian de-escalation sharply moving marketsSeveral equities have reacted sharply to the suggestion that Russia is de-escalating its presence on the Russia/Ukraine border. As reported by Reuters, Russia has begun to move an undisclosed number of its troops away from the Ukrainian border after completing mock defence exercises. Even so, tensions have not entirely dissipated. NATO, US, and UK officials remain cautious of the situation, with Boris Johnson noting that "the intelligence that we're seeing today is still not encouraging". The markets have been more eager to embrace talk of de-escalation. European Equities spent Tuesday rebounding sharply. The STOXX Europe 600, which is comprised of 600 stocks across 17 European exchanges, broke a three-day losing streak and rose 1.43%. On an individual bourse level, the Italian stock market Index, the IT40, led the way back into positive territory, up 2.17% over the trading day. The German (DAX30) and French (CAC40) indices followed closely, each climbing ~1.9%, and the UK's FTSE100 climbed up 0.98%. US stocks reacted in a similar manner when they opened a few hours after Europe. The US market has recently closed where the NASDAQ rose 2.24%, the S&P500 rose 1.36%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.06%. Commodities also make significant moves on news that Russia is de-escalating. Naturally, commodities would be significantly affected by a war between Russia and Ukraine and NATO affiliated nations that have reacted the sharpest. WTI and Brent have pulled back a shocking 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. On Monday, Brent oil prices were pushing their way up to USD 100 per barrel after crossing USD 95 per barrel. Before the turnaround in the oil price, talk of USD 110 per barrel was beginning to filter into market predictions. Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest exporters of Wheat. As such, supply concerns for the soft commodity have eased slightly, and with it, the price has pulled back from its two week high. Wheat is now trading down 2.63% to USD 7.8 per bushel. Low supplies could temper more downside for Wheat in Canada and the US. Other major exports of the region are trading down on the easing tensions. Corn, Iron Ore, and Soybean are all trading down 2.86%, 1.37%, and 1.27%, respectively.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Canadian dollar flat, CPI nextIt has been a quiet week for the Canadian dollar, despite the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, which has captivated the world's attention. The lack of movement could change on Wednesday, as Canada releases the inflation report for February. Canada's CPI looked weak in December, with a reading of -0.1% m/m. However, inflation is expected to have jumped in January, with a consensus of a strong gain of 0.6%. A reading within expectations would indicate that high inflation remains alive and well and will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to take aggressive action in order to curb inflation. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has said that more rate hikes are coming in order to lower inflation to the central bank's 2% target, but other than that hasn't provided any guidance. Macklem has maintained that inflation is transitory and will ease in the second half of the year but he may have to adjust his stance, as we saw with Fed Chair Powell, if inflation continues to accelerate. The crisis on the Ukraine/Russia border remains a powder keg that could explode at any time. Somewhat surprisingly, this major geopolitical development has not affected the Canadian dollar, which is a minor currency that is sensitive to risk sentiment. That could change if there are dramatic moves in the next few days, such as a Russian invasion, which could see the currency tumble, or a Russian troop withdrawal from the border, which would be bullish for the Canadian dollar. There are still hopes that a diplomatic solution can be reached and there have been reports of some Russian troops withdrawing from the border. The solution to the crisis is firmly in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The West has no intention of supporting Ukraine militarily, so the key question is whether the threat of sanctions is enough to dissuade Putin from starting a war in central Europe. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873  1.2679 is being tested in support for a second straight day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
by OANDA
BITCOIN Daily TA : 02.15.22 $BTCAccording to the previous analysis, we see that the price is now following scenario number 1 and has reached the very important resistance level (X-Point) in the range of $ 44,400, if it succeeds in breaking this resistance, the next bullish target is $ 45,500. In order to break this important resistance, the daily candle close above 46K will be the first condition to continue the uptrend. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 15.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
27