Get started

Ukraine

Russia/Ukraine Crisis effect on Raiffeisen Bank InternationalA few western companies that are listed could very much feel the consequences of the Russian invasion. Energy firms revenues and profits may be offset by a potential oil price jump so that is not a major concern right now. The financial sector is where I see an issue. According to calculations by JPMorgan, for the financial sector, the risk is concentrated in Europe. Any conflict in Ukraine will hit Russia just as you would imagine, there would be an economic hit and, along with sanctions that the US will impose this doesn’t sound good. Raiffeisen Bank International derived 39% of its estimated net profit last year from its Russian subsidiary. Raiffeisen Bank International would therefore be a good company to short. The two orange lines represent all-time highs and lows. The two black lines represent the last decade support and resistance levels In early 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea the stock fell by around 32%. In the event of an invasion, I see the stock falling towards the bottom black support line. Represented by the blue arrow. This would be a drop of around 22%.
SWB:RAWShort
by BlackbearTrader
2
Russia/Ukraine Crisis effect on Natural GasThe Russia and Ukraine crisis will cause a strain on Natural Gas prices. This analysis will explain its effects. Global natural gas consumption rebounded by around 4.6% in 2021. This strong growth demand was led by an economic recovery following the 2020s lockdowns and a succession of extreme weather events. Supply could not keep up. Along with unexpected outages, this led to a tight market and steep price increases. The year closed with record high spot prices in Europe and Asia, as natural gas supplies remained very tight. Beginning with the Russia/Ukraine crisis from the end of January till today natural gas spot prices have seen a rapid rise. By almost 35%, from around 3.631 to 4.902. This has been solely due to a fear of an invasion into Ukraine. The reason is simple, Europe heavily relies on Russia for natural gas. Around 40%. A third of the gas comes from pipelines underneath Ukraine, Germany is trying to circumvent this issue with Nord Pipeline 2. But this is still in the making and the US have said that they would stop this pipeline if there were any invasion into Ukraine. So, an invasion into Ukraine will be a good buying opportunity for Natural Gas. However, there's a problem. If the markets, see a problem looming in the commodities sector they almost always price in the problem from the get-go. So, I suspect many large banks, traders are ready for an invasion and gas producers have already got a supply of gas that can be shipped, if need be, to circumvent the gas supply shock that would occur if Russia invaded Ukraine. Also, A senior Biden administration official said last Tuesday that the US has held talks with major gas producers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, as well as domestically about their willingness to “temporarily surge” their gas output to meet any supply shortages. This would lead to a medium-term fulfilment of gas prices and the increase may not be as pronounced as one may imagine. I still believe there will be a large short-term spike in the prices, but this would not sustain for very long and eventually, the price will level out. Only if the supply shortages are met. If not, then the prices may continue to rise. So, if an invasion comes then a spike in natural gas and oil prices will probably occur. After that, I will wait and see how the supply shortage is managed and how that will affect prices. In 1991 the spot price of natural gas begins around 1.649, the highest price was around 16.470 near the end of 2005. But, for the largest period, it's been between 1.649 and 6.162. In the last decade, the spot price has only on three occasions reached that amount. The purple indicator second to the bottom is the RSI, it measures overbought and oversold situations. Since natural gas is a commodity, I’m not going to focus largely on these indicators apart from the CCI (commodity channel index). Which is designed for assets such as natural gas. The RSI has seen overbought levels which have been represented by the purple boxes on the chart. Most of these events have been geopolitical and not nearly related to technical stuff. So, the large increase in the RSI which would inevitably come in the event of an invasion should be mostly ignored. Only recognize that the increase is related to the event and when the RSI starts to cool off it could be a sign to sell. The blue indicator is the CCI. This indicator is used to signal overbought scenarios as well. Since it works by comparing the current price by the average price over some time. The times when the CCI has been overbought are presented by the blue circles on the graph. As with the RSI, I would use this indicator only to see a sell, not a buy. Since the indicator lags in time, the event and spike in price will come before it is shown on the indicator and could cause a delay in action which could result in a bad timing in position. The red lines represent all-time lows and highs. The orange lines are recent highs and lows based on the last decade. But the important lines are the black ones. These represent an area of resistance for the price going back to 2002. The price has stalled and found support and resistance in this region. So, if one wants to have a long-term position in natural gas, I will use this to measure the level of support of the resistance. These lines would not cause any issues in an event of an invasion since the price would probably spike through and ignore the resistance. But when the price cools down, you can expect it to find this region as a support level and that could signal a sell. The blue arrow is my prediction in the event of an invasion. The highest peak of the arrow is where I see some form of a bad scenario working out. But if the US and Europe make sure the gas supply is sufficient, I do expect a rise in the price but not to the arrowhead. Only between the top black line to the orange line. Which is the green rectangle. The growth of the green rectangle represents a rise of 40% which, is more than enough to make a decent profit.
NLong
by BlackbearTrader
2
So, what’s wrong with Kernel?Landscape in the agricultural sector could not be much more favourable for Kernel than it is nowadays. Grains Price Index is at its highest level since 2013 and the company has managed to fix most of its sale prices for the 2021/2022 season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, global grain yields in 2021 will be remarkably high mostly thanks to the very impressive yields in Argentina and Ukraine. The other major producers like the United States, Brazil, Canada, and China faced unfavourable weather conditions in 2021. China is especially relevant in the context of Kernel as its agricultural products import increased in the first two quarters of 2021 by 34% y/y. Moreover, the key agricultural region of China, Henan province, experienced severe floods that are likely to facilitate the upward trend in the grains import. Let’s be more specific. Rather conservative DCF and comparables suggest a valuation of around 78PLN per share. Quite optimistic given the current 57. So, what’s wrong with Kernel? The positive indicators I described have been widely known for quite some time however the share price does not display an upward trend. The late July price jump was caused by the buyback announcement. What is the market afraid of? One thing that comes to my mind is July’s Ukrainian tax authorities tax compliance check. Given the position of Kernel’s owner Andriy Verevskyi, I don’t believe that the firm can get busted on taxes. (Kernel is a huge VAT recipient*; more about Ukrainian oligarchs' power**). Donbas war could be considered another “risk factor” however, based on the media reports, the conflict smoulders rather than burns. Lastly, at the beginning of July Kernel announced the amendment of the expense plan regarding the new oilseed processing plant. Additional costs usually do not make shareholders particularly content although given the record yields this year, plant expansion seems to be justified. Summing up, my valuation suggests that the business is undervalued and I can’t think of risks strong enough to justify current capitalization. Thus, I am optimistic. *latifundist.com/en/novosti/56563-nazvany-krupnejshie-poluchateli-vozmeshcheniya-nds-v-agrosektore-za-avgust-2021-g **chathamhouse.org/2021/07/ukraines-system-crony-capitalism/05-agriculture-counterexample
GPW:KERLong
by UnknownUnicorn27189777
1
El Salvador Accept Bitcoin As The Legal Tender Currency El Salvador Accept Bitcoin As The Legal Tender Currency It was recorded that the price of Bitcoin on Tuesday, September 6th had an approximate loss of 11% in total following the crash of the Salvadoran government legalised crypto storage App. In regards to this news, the price of Bitcoin had a 7 days price change of -6.34% during the close of the last trading week. Where that could be a negative Bitcoin price market update. Perhaps the majority of crypto market participants expect the price of Bitcoin to close above the 52K mark. Yet, the market price closes below the 50K level at the price of $46,242.52. In addition to this report, both individual retail traders and large-cap industries such as standard chartered banks still predicted the price of Bitcoin crossing above the 100k price point. In a nutshell, the craving increase among market players about the price of the crypto market skyrocketing could be revealed in this present week and the coming trading sessions ahead. Bitcoin Success In El Salvador El Salvador being the first country to adopt the legalization of Bitcoin as the official currency means a lot to the crypto market and also to the bullish buying power of Bitcoin. Although this "too good to be true" update about the Bitcoin affairs in the crypto market must not be confused with the negative forces that are awaiting the demise of Bitcoin positive price recovery. On average the percentage of Bitcoin supporters amongst the first tier countries and the federal government across all other continents claims a cumulative supporting share of 70%. Based on this fact, highly detailed trading decisions and investment considerations for Bitcoin must be undergone by the investors. Technical Analysis Recommendations For Bitcoin Many investors view the volatile nature of the Cryptocurrency market as ambiguous. Because little positive or negative impressions over the price of crypto assets will result in a dramatic change in the overall nature of the market structure and the price. When compared to other financial trading instruments it is a big bet that the price of the cryptocurrency has huge volatility in relation to the stock, or foreign exchange market. However, a closer look at the Bitcoin price chart indicates a long-term downtrend. Considering the great fall in price from the 52k price point. Market sentiment suggests that the oversold nature of the Bitcoin price will likely be encountered with an elapsing moment. Ukraine And Uk In Full Support With Cryptocurrency With Ukraine recent approval of Bitcoin as the debut official currency. Lately, In the Eurozone, the UK post office created a Zero charges digital App ( Easyid) that supports the buying of cryptocurrency from the swarm markets. With the Easyid App post office customers can easily buy Bitcoin and also buy vouchers which can be used to redeem cryptocurrency from the swarm market. On a profitable side, it was reported that Easyid App will begin to offer access for UK post office customers into the swarm market where they can start the purchase of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency tokens. As at the time of writing this Bitcoin analysis a telegraph publication proclaimed that a ten thousand growing number of post office users are set to buy their first Bitcoin using Easyid App.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Theexcelentrepreneur
USDUAH | Still on WatchlistThe hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we are heading toward the 61.8 Fibo. Above the 61.8 Fibo the USD is still bullish. Below the 61.8 Fibo we have a bit more neutrality with support close at the weekly EMA200 (good place to hedge UAH and/or go long USD).
Long
by Trader6127
1
USDUAH | Added to WatchlistUkraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here. 1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change. 2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change 3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as the latter appreciated by nearly 7% in the last 12 months. PS. Ukraine had an election in April that resulted in regime change (old banking elites are recapturing the government). The country has the highest NPL in the world and a very precarious situation is stirring in the Ukrainian banking system involving the largest bank by assets, Privatbank which was nationalized in 2017. This may result in NPL issues resurfacing with changes in the banking system, the restitution of Privatbank to former owners, or just some kind of accounting rule or bank reserve requirement changing the outlook for the Hryvnia. Sovereign credit issues may also pop up involving the IMF, so this pair could get very interesting to trade.
Long
by Trader6127
6
GLOG NATURAL GAS INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING TO A NEWLY DEPRIVED EUBREAKING OUT ADVERSE TO MARKET AND WORLD EVENTS This stock is above any resistance points and if continues above indicators on high side it will continually break highs on a daily basis. They are a Monaco based company that is very strong fundamentally and even spun off a LP for dividends under symbol GLOP. This is a fundamentally and technically solid stock and as America will stand to possibly be main if not only Natural Gas producer in world, then the European tankers will cut costs of transports and supply the EU with NAT GAS even if Russia cuts Ukraine and Europe off. Combining this withe the prices paid by EU countries for LNG and the threat of oil and gas being taken DOMESTIC LNG becomes a foremost priority to ship as of almost yesterday! ANOTHER GREAT FIND BY "JACKIE MOON"
GLong
by bhorbs81
1