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Ukraine

Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighboursThe USD has lived up to its classification as a safe-haven currency since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, have failed in this respect. Both have lost strength over the past month and a half. The Swiss franc index has fallen 1.2% over this time, while the Japanese yen has plummeted 8.6%. The physical approximation of Switzerland to the Ukrainian border might explain why the Swiss franc has failed to live up to its safe-haven status. The same reasoning cannot be applied to the yen as Japan has a 5000-mile wide buffer between it and the locale of the conflict. Nevertheless, Switzerland is not the only European country that has been affected by the Ukraine invasion, many of them being direct or close neighbours of Ukraine. Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighbours The currencies of several close and bordering countries of Ukraine have followed a similar pattern since Russia entered Ukraine for its ‘special military operation’ on 24 February 2022. The Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and the Hungarian forint each spent the period of 24 February until the 7 March considerably weakening against the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened in a range of 9% to 14% against these pairs. The two weeks before 24 February saw gradual but moderate de-risking in these European currencies, with the US dollar gaining in the range of 2% to 3.5%. Strangely, significant movement was seen on the bookends of this period, on the 24 February, 6 March, and 7 March. All the stranger for the very sharp reversals that took place on 8 and 9 March. This may have been when it became evident that Russia had botched its invasion. The reversals that occurred were not entirely successful in erasing the losses the currencies made since 24 February. The Czech koruna (USDCZK) has fared the best during this affair so far, weakening by only -3% and followed by the Polish zloty (USDPLN) at -4.9% and the Hungarian forint (USDHUF) at -7.8%.
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro dips as German inflation soarsGerman data was in the spotlight on Wednesday, with the release of German inflation and ZEW Economic Sentiment. The numbers were worrying, but the euro's response was muted, as the currency trades in the mid-1.08 range. German CPI for March came in as expected, at 7.3% YoY. Still, this was a large jump from the 5.1% gain in February and marks the highest inflation release since Germany reunified in 1990. The drivers behind the jump are not hard to identify. The ongoing war in Ukraine, which looks like it will intensify, has caused significant inflation, especially for heating oil, natural gas and food products. Heating oil, for example, has soared 144% in the past 12 months. Germany is also struggling with supply disruptions due to the Covid pandemic. This has which has resulted in shortages of computers chips and many other products and hampered the key manufacturing sector. ECB President Lagarde has gone on record as being dismissive of inflation, taking a page from (the old) Fed Chair Powell and arguing that inflation was transitive. Eurozone inflation lagged behind the numbers in the US or UK, but today's German CPI release clearly shows that eurozone inflation is red-hot and the ECB will need to be more aggressive in order to lower inflationary pressures. There was more bad news as German ZEW Economic Sentiment worsened in April, with a reading of -41.0 (-39.3 prior). This was better than the consensus of -48.0 but still points to deep pessimism over the economic outlook amongst financial experts. The Eurozone ZEW release showed similar numbers. In the US, inflation continues to spiral, with the March headline figure hitting 8.5%, YoY, the highest level since December 1981. Inflation is being driven by supply bottlenecks, rising energy and food prices, and robust consumer demand. There is resistance at 1.1008 and 1.1141 1.0838 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0705
by OANDA
GOLD to 1400???"The Bank of Russia, the country’s central bank, has surprisingly announced a fixed price for buying gold with roubles" - The Conversation 05/04/2022 Announcement: 5000 Rubles per gram tied to Gold! - As of March 28 2022 Just an insight of how this may impact the price of Gold: There are 28 grams in each ounce. 28 grams for 5,000 rubles per gram is 140,000 rubles. When we analyse the conversion rate of rubles into US dollar; 100 rubles, 90 pounds, for each US dollar. If the rubles are tied to gold at 5000 rubles per gram, and there are 28 grams per ounce, which means that an ounce of gold would cost 140,000 rubles, then the conversion into US dollars means that gold costs 1400 dollars per ounce when used the rubles, instead of 1,928 dollars by ounce using the dollars. Russia just wiped out about 30 percent (30%) of the US dollar worldwide when it comes to gold ingots. People all over the world are literally throwing their money on the ruble and throwing away dollars and euros to do it. Now, when we look at price we can see key reversal signals with strong Demand zones around 1550 and 1400. Personally, I believe these levels will be met!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SergenTrades
2
Bears Controlling Dumping To 40K!!Weekly Time-frame We are currently sitting in the breakout area of the double bottom. If we don't hold this area we can expect more to the downside. If we hold this area we can expect a massive pump again but this has little to no probability at all. Bearish has more bearing to happen than the bullish scenario as we can see the SPX Russel 2000 stocks are dropping. Bitcoin is just following the bigger market. 1D Time-frame We have a bearish Engulfing in daily time-frame which we can expect more to the downside. To be bullish we need to go above $44,270 to $44,723 and make it as base then we can expect a rally base rally. For now where the pump started is now going back from it $40,972. Today is weekend so do not expect much volume. I suggest to trade alt coins during weekend. 4H Time-frame We are having a drop base drop at the moment. Expect a retest to $43,118 before it drops again but if the trend is strong We might bounce only up to $42,769. AO is bearish still. RSI is also bearish. 1H Time-frame How to trade Entry $42,769, $43,249, $43,746 SL 1-5% from whole portfolio $47,186 Leverage 10x-11x Use 1% from whole portfolio. TP 1 $42,527 TP 2 $42,089 TP 3 $41,106 TP 4 $40,881 TAYOR DYOR NFA We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Short
by Trade_Scholar
2
EURGBP bearish scenario:EURGBP runs lower yesterday. The EURGBP is following the EURUSD's move and in the process has shifted the bias back to the downside. Investors remain worried that the European economy, which relies heavily on Russia to meet its energy needs, will suffer the most from the spillover effect of the Ukraine crisis. But Bank of England had softened its language on the need for further interest rate hikes should act as a headwind for the British pound and help limit losses for the EUR/GBP cross. In this pair, technical analysis shows a technical figure Rising Wedge. The Rising Wedge broke through the support line on 06/04/2022. EUR/GBP is forming a bearish formation on a daily chart. If the price holds below this level, we will have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 11 days with a target of 0.82025. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 0.08513 if you enter this position. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Short
by legacyFXofficial
NZ dollar hits 15-week highThe New Zealand dollar continues to rally and is up 0.82% this week. Earlier in the day, NZD/USD punched above the symbolic 70 line and rose to 0.7034, its highest level since November 2021, before retreating lower. The US Services PMI for March pointed to continuing expansion, with a reading of 58.3. This was shy of the consensus of 58.9 but an improvement from the February reading of 56.5. The services sector has now grown for the 22nd month in a row, a further indication that the US economy is firing on all four cylinders. The PMI report found that businesses continue to be negatively impacted by supply chain problems and inflation. Inventories remain low as businesses continue to struggle to replenish stocks. On a positive note, the report noted that labor shortages have actually eased, as a downturn in Covid cases has led to officials relaxing health restrictions. The New Zealand dollar is a commodity-based currency, which has been a godsend in a time of risk apprehension and turbulent markets. The surge in commodities has more than compensated for the currency's sensitivity to risk, and NZD/USD gained 2.35% in March, despite the turmoil over the Russia-Ukraine war. The ANZ Commodity Price index will be released on Wednesday, with the index posting a gain of 3.9% in February, an 11-month high. We'll also get a look at NZIER Business Confidence for March, which has struggled. The index fell by 28% in February, as businesses remain pessimistic about the economic outlook. The RBNZ is never far from the headlines, and investors are eyeing a key policy meeting next week. The central bank has embarked on a rate-hike cycle and has raised rates from a record-low 0.25% to 1.00%. Another increase next week would likely propel the New Zealand dollar to higher ground. NZD/USD broke above resistance at 0.6986 earlier, before retreating. Above, there is resistance at 0.7054 There is support at 0.6863 and 0.6808
by OANDA
$UVXY market rally slowing down? 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Bitcoin and the US markets all seem to be losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. My team is now expecting the markets to retrace and behave bearish leading into the month of April. Some US states have been proposing a possible stimulus check to residents to help fight inflation. This may send the markets higher, but in our opinion, this would be an ignorant course of action and it is unlikely to pass. We believe that this would only delay the inevitable recession and cause the inflation situation to grow even worse. With this unlikely scenario being said, we still believe that now is the time to position ourselves defensively against the market. My team will be using $UVXY again as our market hedge, and we hope to come out on top with it just as before. We entered $UVXY today at $14.25 per share. Our take profit is set at $18 with a stop loss at $13.25. ENTRY: $14.25 TAKE PROFIT: $18 STOP LOSS: $13.25 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
12
Bitcoin Daily TA : 04.04.22 As we can see the price broke the 46K resistance zone , now the price is consolidating above this level, by maintaining the support in 44K zone , we can expect the price to rise to the Equilibrium (50% fib ratio of the main downtrend) in the range $ 49,500 to $ 52,000, if this rsistance is broken, one of the most appealing and important ranges for saving profits of whales and institutions is from 52K to 56.5K range ! Important price supports are $ 44500 and then the range of $ 40400 to $ 41,500, respectively! Targets will be updated! Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 04.04.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
Pound shrugs as UK GDP revised upwardsThe British economy performed better than expected in the fourth quarter. Final  GDP rose by 1.3% in Q4 of 2021, upwardly revised from the first quarterly estimate of a 1.0% gain. Final GDP beat the forecast of 1.0%. On an annualized basis, GDP in 2021 jumped 7.4%, a massive turnaround from -9.3% in 2020. The economy has almost completely recovered from the pandemic, with GDP currently only 0.1% below the pre-Covid level in Q4 of 2019. The recovery is certainly good news, but there are dark clouds nearby, namely, soaring energy prices and the spectre of stagflation. BoE Governor Bailey had a stark warning for consumers this week, saying that real incomes would suffer a "historic shock". The BoE has raised interest rates three consecutive times, but this hasn't slowed down inflation, which accelerated to 6.2% in February, a 30-year high. The Bank says the Ukraine war could push inflation as high as 8% in Q2 and even higher in the third quarter. It seems that double-digit inflation is a real possibility later this year, which would truly be a nightmare scenario for Governor Bailey and Finance Minister Rishi Sunak. The BoE doesn't have a magic answer for surging inflation, which has also reached the US and other major economies. The BoE, can, of course, hike interest rates in order to subdue inflation, but the danger is that high rates could choke off economic growth. Governor Bailey has a formidable challenge of charting out a rate-tightening cycle in which interest rates are high enough to lower inflation but don't derail the recovery. Time will tell if Bailey will "get it right" with the pace and size of upcoming rate hikes. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3281 and 1.3380 There is support at 1.3102 and 1.3022
by OANDA
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140If you go back to my page and read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. We haven't exactly hit 1872 yet which we STILL COULD, but this is still a good zone to go long from. We've seen Gold drop roughly 700 PIPS since yesterday alone, liquidating all the buyers who got into the market late. This manipulative drop could be the last drop and now we will see Wave 5 start. Let me know if you agree and drop a like. All my socials are on my TradingView profile. Follow my page for more free analysis!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
Aussie dips ahead of retail sales After a strong week, the Australian dollar has reversed directions and dropped below the 0.75 line on Monday. Investors will be keeping an eye on Australian retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a gain of 1.0%, down from 1.8% in January. The month of March has been kind to the Australian dollar, with sharp gains of 3.47%. The risk currency has not been affected by the tumultuous reaction in the markets to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, although risk apprehension is certainly higher since the war began. Investors are also uneasy over the situation in China, which continues to battle an upsurge in Covid cases. The government has imposed rolling lockdowns on Shanghai, which has a population of some 25 million. The property crisis has been overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis, but it hasn't gone away. Since Evergrande's default last year, Chinese property developers are finding themselves locked out of the global debt market, and the country's third-largest developer missed two bond payments on Friday. There is plenty of risk apprehension to go around, but the Aussie's savior has been the resource-based economy of the Lucky Country, as the range of commodities that Australia exports have been in huge demand as prices continue to head higher. Australia releases its annual budget on Tuesday, and the surge in commodities will allow the Morrison government to narrow its budget deficit and also give out some goodies, as it eyes a federal election later this year. The budget is expected to include help for homeowners and a temporary reduction in the tax on petrol. 0.7414 is the first line of support. Below, there is support at 0.7313 There is resistance at 0.7577 and 0.7639
by OANDA
Weakly SOS (sign of strength) RADA #RADA Electronic Industries Ltd., a defense #technology company, #develops, manufactures, markets, and sells #defense electronics to various air #forces and companies worldwide. It offers digital video/audio/data recorders; high definition digital video/audio/data recording for fighter and trainer #aircraft; a range of head-up-displays color video cameras for fighter aircraft; and various ground debriefing solutions. The #company also provides avionics solutions, such as mission data recorders and debriefing solutions and HUD video cameras; and avionics for unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) comprising interface control processors, engine control computers, payload management computers, and others. In addition, it offers land-based tactical radars for defense forces, critical infrastructure protection, border surveillance, active military protection, and counter-drone applications. The company was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Netanya, #Israel. #nyse #nasdaq #trend #military
RLong
by MaksymKonstantynov
Currency Markets Reach Historic Price LevelsAre we seeing a structural shift in currency market trends? Either way, the second quarter of 2022 will likely be a decisive point in the trends of currency markets for the years to come... Heres why. A number of currency markets right now are reaching multi year highs or lows, testing historic support and resistance levels. If price were to break these levels we could be entering price levels not seen since the 1990's! USDJPY USDJPY is currently trading at 20 year highs and a resistance level that has held since 2002... some of you may also notice these is an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. This move over the past month and drive towards the current level has been driven a sharp sell off in JGB's (Japanese Govt Bonds) as seen in the chart below: On the topic of the Japanese Bond market, the yields on these bonds are kept within a tight range by the BoJ (Bank of Japan) via Yield Curve Control (YCC), these yields are currently trading at the top of this range suggesting in normal market conditions the BoJ will step in and buy the necessary amount of bonds required to lower the yields... However as you know, we are not in "normal market conditions" considering global inflation & a war between Russia & Ukraine with potentially catastrophic consequences. EURUSD EURUSD is trading into 19 year lows, testing both a long term support zone and a broken trend-line. The Euro has trended negatively against the Dollar since 2008 and coincidentally the height of the financial crisis that led to Lehman Brothers collapsing. Is this the point that EURUSD can finally find some support and break this trend or after testing this level a number of time since 2015, could we expect a return to parity between the Euro and the Dollar (1.00000)? EURGBP Continuing with the analysis of the Euro, this time against the British Pound. Price is testing the bottom of a range established for the past 6 years since October 2016. The past couple of months have shown consolidation but the next conclusive direction for this cross pair will be determined by geo-political outcomes of the Russian / Ukrainian war and risk appetite of investors within Europe. Namely, any further spread of the war beyond Ukraine's borders could force investors away from European markets and consequently the Euro. While any relaxing of tensions and deescalation of hostilities will no doubt be a welcome boost for European investors. GBPJPY GBPJPY is trading at "Pre-Brexit" levels. The 160.000 support handle was broken upon the shock result of the UK's referendum to leave the EU, this month is the first time that price has retested this price level since that result was confirmed. However as marked on the chart we can see that the proceeding trend was established once the referendum was announced back in May 2015. Are we now seeing a true reversal of this trend? A break above these levels will certainly give British Pound bulls impetus for an extended bullish run. In Summary With so many currency pairs at historic price levels we could be watching a true structural shift in global markets where traders will need to reassess their key levels, price targets and levels of risk in any open trades. While inherently risky times for traders, with any risk comes the potential for huge rewards... any traders on the right side of the trends that come out of these levels will be in a great position to profit for a long time to come. So its worth over the next few weeks to make some deep analysis of where markets are heading to give yourself the best opportunity to be on the right side of these trends.
by JoelWarby