EURGBP bearish scenario:EURGBP runs lower yesterday. The EURGBP is following the EURUSD's move and in the process has shifted the bias back to the downside. Investors remain worried that the European economy, which relies heavily on Russia to meet its energy needs, will suffer the most from the spillover effect of the Ukraine crisis. But Bank of England had softened its language on the need for further interest rate hikes should act as a headwind for the British pound and help limit losses for the EUR/GBP cross.
In this pair, technical analysis shows a technical figure Rising Wedge. The Rising Wedge broke through the support line on 06/04/2022. EUR/GBP is forming a bearish formation on a daily chart. If the price holds below this level, we will have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 11 days with a target of 0.82025. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 0.08513 if you enter this position.
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Ukraine
NZ dollar hits 15-week highThe New Zealand dollar continues to rally and is up 0.82% this week. Earlier in the day, NZD/USD punched above the symbolic 70 line and rose to 0.7034, its highest level since November 2021, before retreating lower.
The US Services PMI for March pointed to continuing expansion, with a reading of 58.3. This was shy of the consensus of 58.9 but an improvement from the February reading of 56.5. The services sector has now grown for the 22nd month in a row, a further indication that the US economy is firing on all four cylinders. The PMI report found that businesses continue to be negatively impacted by supply chain problems and inflation. Inventories remain low as businesses continue to struggle to replenish stocks. On a positive note, the report noted that labor shortages have actually eased, as a downturn in Covid cases has led to officials relaxing health restrictions.
The New Zealand dollar is a commodity-based currency, which has been a godsend in a time of risk apprehension and turbulent markets. The surge in commodities has more than compensated for the currency's sensitivity to risk, and NZD/USD gained 2.35% in March, despite the turmoil over the Russia-Ukraine war. The ANZ Commodity Price index will be released on Wednesday, with the index posting a gain of 3.9% in February, an 11-month high.
We'll also get a look at NZIER Business Confidence for March, which has struggled. The index fell by 28% in February, as businesses remain pessimistic about the economic outlook.
The RBNZ is never far from the headlines, and investors are eyeing a key policy meeting next week. The central bank has embarked on a rate-hike cycle and has raised rates from a record-low 0.25% to 1.00%. Another increase next week would likely propel the New Zealand dollar to higher ground.
NZD/USD broke above resistance at 0.6986 earlier, before retreating. Above, there is resistance at 0.7054
There is support at 0.6863 and 0.6808
$UVXY market rally slowing down? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Bitcoin and the US markets all seem to be losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. My team is now expecting the markets to retrace and behave bearish leading into the month of April.
Some US states have been proposing a possible stimulus check to residents to help fight inflation. This may send the markets higher, but in our opinion, this would be an ignorant course of action and it is unlikely to pass. We believe that this would only delay the inevitable recession and cause the inflation situation to grow even worse. With this unlikely scenario being said, we still believe that now is the time to position ourselves defensively against the market.
My team will be using $UVXY again as our market hedge, and we hope to come out on top with it just as before.
We entered $UVXY today at $14.25 per share. Our take profit is set at $18 with a stop loss at $13.25.
ENTRY: $14.25
TAKE PROFIT: $18
STOP LOSS: $13.25
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Bitcoin Daily TA : 04.04.22 As we can see the price broke the 46K resistance zone , now the price is consolidating above this level, by maintaining the support in 44K zone , we can expect the price to rise to the Equilibrium (50% fib ratio of the main downtrend) in the range $ 49,500 to $ 52,000, if this rsistance is broken, one of the most appealing and important ranges for saving profits of whales and institutions is from 52K to 56.5K range ! Important price supports are $ 44500 and then the range of $ 40400 to $ 41,500, respectively! Targets will be updated!
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 04.04.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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GOOGL ShortIm bearish on GOOGL, 3 tops and 3 bottoms logged.
....
Market direction is indecisive.
Until Russia signs diplomacy things will get better.
This war will cost us a recession if we don't stop it now...
Rsi crossing downwards..
Market Cap increasing and trend line broken upwards. Not exactly sure what the cause might be for this.
$SPY the illuminati 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
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*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
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Pound shrugs as UK GDP revised upwardsThe British economy performed better than expected in the fourth quarter. Final GDP rose by 1.3% in Q4 of 2021, upwardly revised from the first quarterly estimate of a 1.0% gain. Final GDP beat the forecast of 1.0%. On an annualized basis, GDP in 2021 jumped 7.4%, a massive turnaround from -9.3% in 2020.
The economy has almost completely recovered from the pandemic, with GDP currently only 0.1% below the pre-Covid level in Q4 of 2019. The recovery is certainly good news, but there are dark clouds nearby, namely, soaring energy prices and the spectre of stagflation. BoE Governor Bailey had a stark warning for consumers this week, saying that real incomes would suffer a "historic shock".
The BoE has raised interest rates three consecutive times, but this hasn't slowed down inflation, which accelerated to 6.2% in February, a 30-year high. The Bank says the Ukraine war could push inflation as high as 8% in Q2 and even higher in the third quarter. It seems that double-digit inflation is a real possibility later this year, which would truly be a nightmare scenario for Governor Bailey and Finance Minister Rishi Sunak.
The BoE doesn't have a magic answer for surging inflation, which has also reached the US and other major economies. The BoE, can, of course, hike interest rates in order to subdue inflation, but the danger is that high rates could choke off economic growth. Governor Bailey has a formidable challenge of charting out a rate-tightening cycle in which interest rates are high enough to lower inflation but don't derail the recovery. Time will tell if Bailey will "get it right" with the pace and size of upcoming rate hikes.
GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3281 and 1.3380
There is support at 1.3102 and 1.3022
150+ oil soon? #OILI'm a betting man, OIL seems like decent spot to long here. Ukraine Russia isn't going to stop soon and I cant see Russian enemies paying in ruble, and lets be honest even if Biden does take from the reserve its 5% of the daily American use and they need to replenish again at some stage, not factoring in OPEC either.
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140If you go back to my page and read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. We haven't exactly hit 1872 yet which we STILL COULD, but this is still a good zone to go long from. We've seen Gold drop roughly 700 PIPS since yesterday alone, liquidating all the buyers who got into the market late. This manipulative drop could be the last drop and now we will see Wave 5 start.
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Aussie dips ahead of retail sales
After a strong week, the Australian dollar has reversed directions and dropped below the 0.75 line on Monday. Investors will be keeping an eye on Australian retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a gain of 1.0%, down from 1.8% in January.
The month of March has been kind to the Australian dollar, with sharp gains of 3.47%. The risk currency has not been affected by the tumultuous reaction in the markets to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, although risk apprehension is certainly higher since the war began.
Investors are also uneasy over the situation in China, which continues to battle an upsurge in Covid cases. The government has imposed rolling lockdowns on Shanghai, which has a population of some 25 million. The property crisis has been overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis, but it hasn't gone away. Since Evergrande's default last year, Chinese property developers are finding themselves locked out of the global debt market, and the country's third-largest developer missed two bond payments on Friday.
There is plenty of risk apprehension to go around, but the Aussie's savior has been the resource-based economy of the Lucky Country, as the range of commodities that Australia exports have been in huge demand as prices continue to head higher.
Australia releases its annual budget on Tuesday, and the surge in commodities will allow the Morrison government to narrow its budget deficit and also give out some goodies, as it eyes a federal election later this year. The budget is expected to include help for homeowners and a temporary reduction in the tax on petrol.
0.7414 is the first line of support. Below, there is support at 0.7313
There is resistance at 0.7577 and 0.7639
Weakly SOS (sign of strength) RADA #RADA Electronic Industries Ltd., a defense #technology company, #develops, manufactures, markets, and sells #defense electronics to various air #forces and companies worldwide. It offers digital video/audio/data recorders; high definition digital video/audio/data recording for fighter and trainer #aircraft; a range of head-up-displays color video cameras for fighter aircraft; and various ground debriefing solutions. The #company also provides avionics solutions, such as mission data recorders and debriefing solutions and HUD video cameras; and avionics for unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) comprising interface control processors, engine control computers, payload management computers, and others.
In addition, it offers land-based tactical radars for defense forces, critical infrastructure protection, border surveillance, active military protection, and counter-drone applications. The company was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Netanya, #Israel.
#nyse #nasdaq #trend #military
Currency Markets Reach Historic Price LevelsAre we seeing a structural shift in currency market trends? Either way, the second quarter of 2022 will likely be a decisive point in the trends of currency markets for the years to come... Heres why.
A number of currency markets right now are reaching multi year highs or lows, testing historic support and resistance levels. If price were to break these levels we could be entering price levels not seen since the 1990's!
USDJPY
USDJPY is currently trading at 20 year highs and a resistance level that has held since 2002... some of you may also notice these is an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. This move over the past month and drive towards the current level has been driven a sharp sell off in JGB's (Japanese Govt Bonds) as seen in the chart below:
On the topic of the Japanese Bond market, the yields on these bonds are kept within a tight range by the BoJ (Bank of Japan) via Yield Curve Control (YCC), these yields are currently trading at the top of this range suggesting in normal market conditions the BoJ will step in and buy the necessary amount of bonds required to lower the yields... However as you know, we are not in "normal market conditions" considering global inflation & a war between Russia & Ukraine with potentially catastrophic consequences.
EURUSD
EURUSD is trading into 19 year lows, testing both a long term support zone and a broken trend-line. The Euro has trended negatively against the Dollar since 2008 and coincidentally the height of the financial crisis that led to Lehman Brothers collapsing.
Is this the point that EURUSD can finally find some support and break this trend or after testing this level a number of time since 2015, could we expect a return to parity between the Euro and the Dollar (1.00000)?
EURGBP
Continuing with the analysis of the Euro, this time against the British Pound. Price is testing the bottom of a range established for the past 6 years since October 2016. The past couple of months have shown consolidation but the next conclusive direction for this cross pair will be determined by geo-political outcomes of the Russian / Ukrainian war and risk appetite of investors within Europe.
Namely, any further spread of the war beyond Ukraine's borders could force investors away from European markets and consequently the Euro. While any relaxing of tensions and deescalation of hostilities will no doubt be a welcome boost for European investors.
GBPJPY
GBPJPY is trading at "Pre-Brexit" levels. The 160.000 support handle was broken upon the shock result of the UK's referendum to leave the EU, this month is the first time that price has retested this price level since that result was confirmed. However as marked on the chart we can see that the proceeding trend was established once the referendum was announced back in May 2015.
Are we now seeing a true reversal of this trend? A break above these levels will certainly give British Pound bulls impetus for an extended bullish run.
In Summary
With so many currency pairs at historic price levels we could be watching a true structural shift in global markets where traders will need to reassess their key levels, price targets and levels of risk in any open trades.
While inherently risky times for traders, with any risk comes the potential for huge rewards... any traders on the right side of the trends that come out of these levels will be in a great position to profit for a long time to come.
So its worth over the next few weeks to make some deep analysis of where markets are heading to give yourself the best opportunity to be on the right side of these trends.
Whales In The Market, Could Break 50K ?Weekly Time-frame
We confirmed breakout candle in weekly time-frame for double bottom and downward slope resistance. We can expect more to the upside for this week. Awesome Oscillator is bullish also. Ichimoku cloud Senkou span a is about to be broken as resistance. If We break it we can expect more to the upside. If we get rejected in the supply area we can start having a correction.
1D Time-frame
We are currently in the High Volume Node in VPVR which is a strong trading area. We might go sideways in this area or if we break it then we can have a rocket pump to the upside. We need to turn this supply area into a base and continue pump to the upside. Awesome Oscillator is also bullish. RSI is not overbought yet in 1D TF. If we don't hold this as a base then it will end up as flip zone. Where you can expect a drop from this area.
4H Time-frame
4H time-frame Bullish Saucer. We can expect more to the upside. Greed and Fear index for crypto is now #60 which is greed. We might stay here for a long time now or this might be a good time to short.
We have strong volume to the upside so we can expect institutional money entered the. market. we can enter in the retest of the zone.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Will importers cave into Putin’s gas for Rubles demand?In what is widely seen as an attempt to circumvent Western sanctions and prop up the Russian ruble, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles, a move that could have far-reaching implications on global oil and energy supply.
"I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payment for our gas supplies to unfriendly countries into Russian rubles,” news outlets quoted Putin as saying in a government meeting last week, adding that Russia would turn down payments for natural-gas supplies in currencies “that have compromised themselves,” including dollars and euros.
Putin has given the Russian central bank and gas suppliers like Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil a week to implement the change.
Why is Putin pushing for ruble payments?
Russia’s decision came as the country’s oil trade has been left in disarray as importers put orders on hold amid a wide condemnation of the Kremlin’s attacks on Ukraine. Since the war broke out over a month ago, concerns of a global energy crisis intensified, sending pump prices skyrocketing to record highs and fanning global inflation fears.
Economic sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies have also caused the Russian ruble to fall to record lows in the early weeks since the war started, further weakening the Russian economy.
Putin’s latest move sent the ruble to its strongest in nearly a month against the US dollar last week, although it was still down ~25% this year as of Monday, March 28, at ~106 against the dollar.
Will importers cave in?
Russia supplies nearly 40% of the European Union’s natural gas and over 25% of the region’s crude oil. Although the global oil cartel known as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC oil-exporting nations played down concerns of a global oil shortage as the war drags on, many industry players fear a potential demand destruction that could cause oil demand to peak and fall when pump prices become too expensive.
To reinstate the balance in oil supply and demand especially during wintertime in Europe, EU-based importers of Russian oil could then choose to yield to Putin’s demands and pay in rubles.
However, EU leaders, shortly after Putin’s announcement, stood firm and rejected the Kremlin’s demands, with Slovenia Prime Minister Janez Jansa saying “nobody will pay in rubles,” Bloomberg News reported. The message was backed by leaders of Ireland, Italy, Croatia, and Germany, among others, ahead of a summit meeting in Brussels. The leaders stressed that Putin’s demand would be in violation of their existing contracts.
Adding to Putin’s woes is US President Joe Biden’s pledge to deliver 15 billion cubic meters of liquified natural gas to Europe this year on top of the shipments that are already on their way to Europe.
The probability of EU importers caving into Russia’s demands are also looking less likely as the EU steps up its efforts to discontinue buying Russian gas before 2030.
Faster transition to renewable energy sources
Instead of a far-reaching energy crisis that many fear could come out of the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions against Russia and the Kremlin’s countersanctions could accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources. Europe could speed up the construction of LNG terminals across the continent to store LNG deliveries from allies including the US.
Agora Energiewende, a German think-tank, suggests a 32% reduction in Europe’s gas consumption by 2027 if the continent slashes its use of fossil fuels and transition to wind and solar energy in the next five years. This measure could save the EU between 127 billion euros and 318 billion euros on gas imports, the think-tank said. Scaling up renewable energy in the EU could allow the continent to avoid 80% of today’s Russian gas imports by 2027, Agora Energiewende added.
Big Whale!! Pumping New ATH???Weekly Time-frame
The largest Canadian Bitcoin ETF is hitting back-to-back all-time highs with respect to its BTC holdings as inflows intensified. Bullish news. We are still holding the area of supply zone. If we turn it to demand zone we can rally again in the following days.
1D Time-frame
We are going to have some correction today or might be the beginning of the drop base drop. Crypto greed and fear index is now at #51. AO is still bullish and RSI is still bullish. We are still in the supply area if we turn this to base the we can rally again next week.
4H Time-frame
AO is bullish and is currently correcting. RSI is bullish. Tanken Sen is now supporting the candle. Next support is in Kijun Sen at $43,000.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Could Market Adoption Break 45,000?Weekly Time-frame
We are breaking the double bottom pattern. Price target at $52,194. Seems like we are about to turn the supply area into demand area and make a rally base rally set up. Retest of the supply area and not break it would mean we can get dump to up to $41,574.
1D Time-frame
Greed and Fear index is now in #40 which is still fear. Liquidation reached $120M 68% of it from the short position. Which would mean there is a clear floor to the downside that can start dumping the market again. Ichimoku Cloud is forming a beautiful bullish cloud. We are hoping to break the supply zone at $43,900 If we make it our new base then we can continue to the upside. Retest from the Supply zone would mean we are going down to $41,296, $38,434 bottom $37,000.
4H Time-frame
Strong demand zone is waiting at $41,296. Awesome Oscillator is now turning bearish twin peaks. We can expect that this is the bottom if we print the next volume a red volume.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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$BTC lifting off 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Entry: $41300
Take Profit: $49000
Stop Loss: $37000
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$MARA back in for another run 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
This morning my team purchased shares of digital mining bitcoin company Marathon digital $MARA at $25.92 per share. Our take profit is $32.75 with a stop loss at $24.90.
Our Entry: $25.92
Take Profit: $32.75
Stop Loss: $24.90
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XAUUSD LONG TO 2019Gold is currently creating a very tricky & complex wave count in the markets & I believe there is still a chance for it to drop lower towards 1870. However, this wave count is also valid. We have seen completion of Wave 5 hitting a low of 1896 followed by a sharp move up. Since then we have been ranging within this tight zone which could be the start of a new uptrend. I will be trying long positions from here with a potential target of 1000 PIPS profit🦾 If this scenario fails, I will go back to my original buying zone at 1872-1867.
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