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FTSE 100 Index

Bear Flag (FTSE 100) UKX - And Hopefully Not A Triangle!?There are many suggestions that we're seeing an ascending triangle (with a confirmed breakout) on the UKX. The white horizontal line shows the resistance of the Triangle. Something just didn't feel right for me on that pattern - particularly the 'breakout' which seemed muted and weak considering this multi-week build up. Instead I'm suggest a bearish flag in blue, which is more common in bear markets. If correct - that would suggest an aggressive move to the downside, way below the support, in the coming week. For now I'm holding onto my short. Keen to hear your thoughts!
TVC:UKXShort
by UnknownUnicorn4296366
1
UK 100 | Bearish FlagPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. Price formed a Bearish Flag and was rejected of the higher boundary of the Pattern. In case there is a breakout of the Mid line of the pattern we can initiate a short position. Also if there is a breakout of Bearish Flag to downward we can initiate a short position Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts. The information given is not a Financial Advice.
TVC:UKXShort
by Anpu
1
The Mother of All Bubbles - Bitcoin vs StocksHe everyone, Been a long time since I posted a chart/comparison. All major stocks are represented here and compared with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in its own merits an index for the whole cryptocurrency market, and every crypto-trader/enthusiast knows that when Bitcoin moves up or down, the whole market usually moves with it. The whole economy, including the crypto-economy, had been going up since 2008, and the rise was steeper and higher than anything seen before. Everything built on leveraged trading and loans. The clock was ticking on the bomb, but it also required a button to be pushed to initiate the detonation sequence... enter COVID-19. A quarter of the world population is in lockdown right now. This essentially means only the work which is essential, is being carried out. Forget about ambitions or new ideas to be brought to life, this is now about survival. As per Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the basic need of health and security is being threatened. The ones of the top do not take priority at this time. And this need is going to be under threat for months, and may be challenged in waves. (www.thoughtco.com) There is no demand and will be no demand for anything else for months now. I don't need to point out that the supply of products is usually done prior to the demand in anticipation, hence there are stocks load of products which may go past their expiry date and may not be of use. That will lead to other waste of resources. Economy is going to face the biggest challenge yet, and will rival the great depression of the 1920s. Stay safe and make decisions which you can stand by and do not regret later. All the best!
BNC:BLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn995432
8
FTSE100 - WILL LONG TERM THINKING WIN?We are currently seeing a 30-40% adjustment in the markets due tot the impact of Covid-19. After last week's crash, governments have announced economic relief bills of unprecedented sums of money that have turned the market bullish. Although such "rescue packages" are effective in the short-term, they cannot cover long-term economic damage that is expected to result from restrictions under Covid-19 and the oversupply in oil. Most countries in Europe, and the US have not yet seen the peak in cases and deaths as the corona-virus keeps infecting and killing. Governments are imposing tighter restrictions and Italy is considering moving to a "war-economy" that will shut around 70% of the economic activities. Although other European countries seem to have a less steeper increase in corona cases and deaths, it is very likely that most economies will need to shut down more and more over the next coming weeks. Many suggest that the US will become the new "epicenter" of the disease as the virus continues to develop. Some experts say that the virus may slow down in warmer weather, and future infection-waves may be inevitable. Now, let's back this up with some historical and chart analyses: > CCI wave end of Mar-20 similar strength as in Jul-02 and Sep-08. In the latter two instances, both where followed by a less powerful bearish market that despite the lack of strength pushed the market down further. The time frame between the two waves is from Jul-02 to Jan-03 (+/- 6.5mo) and Sep-08 to Feb-09 (+/- 5mo), averaging around 6 months. > The above is supported by: - applying the Elliot-wave theory on the downward trend in the index, which have been very applicable in the past recessions as the chart shows. In 2020, we have seen two downward impulse waves (A,C) and are currently in the second correction wave (D). Correction went back to 0.38Fib, whereas correcton D went a little over 0.38Fib and therefor may first continue upwards to 0.50Fib (c. 5850) or even 0.62Fib (c. 6100) before continuing with the last wave. - MACD suggest a strong bearish market that is not close to cut the base and move into a bullish market. > Assuming the Covid-19 crisis will lead the economy into recession with similar impact on the economy as the 2003 and 2008/9 down-cycles, the index will be falling towards or just below the 4000 points around June or July when the real impact of the Covid-19 restrictions will be felt in the economy. However, the bottom may be strongest in May when Europe at the end and the US at the start of the Covid-19 peak as panic kicks in, hospital capacity is reached and economies need to be shut down almost completely. Also, most analysts are focused on emerged economies but most companies on 1st world stock exchanges have significant economic and market exposure in emerging markets where healthcare, governing and economic systems are not as sound, and where the impact of the virus may not be controllable in any front. > The above is all subject to the developments of Covid-19, but also the lower oil price that is expected to remain low throughout April-20 as Saudi Arabia and Russia will not ramp down production to stabilize global prices. It will be interesting to continue monitoring all developments and see how the world reacts to a problem that we have never faced in modern times.
TVC:UKXShort
by engelandertje