Cautiously BullishHi guys. Here's another index chart I'm meekly sharing. It looks overall bullish; however, we have to note the momentum drop, which can lead to more consolidation or even a reversal. Thank you for taking a look.
FTSE 100 Index
7550 and then down to 7415I am thinking that the current leg up might run out of steam in the 7545 to 7560 area and then we get a leg down toward 7415 before the year end rally. The FTSE is struggling to push higher and lagging the Dax and SP, cable is pegging it too. We have a rate rise (potentially but pretty likely 0.25% increase) and that might well see an initial spike higher in cable which may lead to some FTSE 100 bulls taking profit. IMHO, DYOR!
Bounced to 7520 - leg down to 7400 then year end rallyHit the 7450 which was the target on the 7550 short. Ended up going a bit lower, hitting the lower support at 7430. Having now bounced to 7520, we might see a leg down to 7400 before a larger rally, but the bears need to break 7475 which is short term support.
Sell FTSE 100 below 7344, Objective 7290Weekly chart
Rejection at 5-MA followed by a break below weekly low of 7344 is likely to yield a pull back to 7290 (161.8% Fib ext.). A weekly close below 7290 would signal the index has topped out.
Stops could be place above 7360 (very tight stop).
Sell FTSE 100 for 7300Head and shoulders breakdown
Rejection at 10-DMA
5-DMA & 10-DMA sloping downwards
Index likely to revisit 7300
Sell around 7365 Objective 7300 Stops above 7385
Decline and bounce at 7280For today I am looking at resistance at 7385 where we have the Hull moving average on the 2 hour chart. This is looking decidedly bearish now after that drop yesterday, though has in fact been showing a bearish trend since Tuesday - hence my constant repeat of "sell the rallies" this week. Like a broken record! Above this resistance level then 7442 is the top of the 10 day Raff but with the current backdrop it might struggle to reach that level (it might struggle to reach 7385 today too!).
So, as its still bearish, that leads me onto the next level I am looking at which is support at 7279 - this is showing as fairly key as daily, weekly and monthly support. If the bears break then 7100 is pretty possible in fairly short order. The bottom of the 10 day Raff for today is 7270, and the 20 day is slightly below that at 7265. With the bounce from the 7305 low, we are just above the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels for today, support from them at 7327 and 7338. Could well be a dead cat bounce though.
FTSE 100 looks set to test neckline support of 7380Tuesday's failure to hold above the falling trend line resistance followed by a drop to 7446 adds credence to the bearish price RSI divergence and points to further drop in the prices to 7380 (head and shoulders neckline).
A daily close below 7380 would indicate trend reversal and open doors for 7161 (target as per measured height method).
FTSE 100 - falling tops intactThe erratic recovery from 7378 (June 15 low) signals the sell-off from the high of 7599 has run out of steam, although the bulls would still want to see a break above 7530 (falling trend line) before betting on fresh record highs.
On the downside, only a daily close below 7449 would revive the bearish view.
FTSE 100 stuck at H&S, crowding out weak sellers?The positive action today may force one to question the breakdown seen over the past few days. however, in my opinion the positive move today is a bull trap. The index could be forcing out weak sellers. The doors remain open for a pull back to 7300.
Only a daily close above 7500 would signal the pull back has ended.
FTSE 100 - Head and Shoulders breakdownH&S breakdown looks like a done deal...is preceded by a bearish price RSI divergence and falling tops pattern.
The index ha topped out for the short-term and could extend losses to 7300 once the support at 7354 is breached.
The macro side of the story looks weak as well - Pound rallying, BOE tilting towards rate hike + political uncertainty
Fresh record highs likely next week for FTSE 100 Break above the downward sloping trend line on the price chart and the RSI, coupled with the fact that the RSI is sloping upwards and i still short of the overbought territory suggests the index is likely to print record highs next week.
The current record high stands at 7447 levels.
$UKX Daily Head & ShouldersFundamental
GBP Monetary Policy Committee Vote and BOE Minutes May 11th, 2017
UK General Election June 8th, 2017.
Technical
Left shoulder and head formed. Watching for a reversal at 61.8% or left shoulder high: 7300 - 7350 range.
Although horizontal non sloping neckline signalling strong support at 7100 level.
Neckline to Head rally of 4.87%. Anticipating a drop below 7100 of 2.68% to test 6900 handle.
A strong daily break and close over 7350 will exit trade or cancel trade.
Planned Trade TVC:UKX
Stop 7409
Short Entry 7309
Profit Target 6900
Happy Trading
FTSE 100 - Fresh highs likely if 7360 is breachedResistance at 7360 (falling trend line) if breached this week would open doors for 7500 levels. Pound is looking toppy in the short-term and could witness a pull back if the BOE on Thursday talks down inflation threat amid weak commodity prices.
A turn lower from 7360 area could end up in a larger head and shoulder formation with neckline at 7100 levels.
FTSE 100 – Bearish below 7197Failure to hold above the head and shoulders neckline followed by a violation at the critical support at 7197 (Apr 28 low) would open doors for a fresh round of sell-off to 7096.8 (Apr 20 low) levels.
On the higher side, only a daily close above 50-DMA level of 7306 would revive bullish view.
FTSE 100 - Rejected at Head and Shoulders neckline resistanceThe daily chart shows - the index breached a smaller head and shoulders pattern on April 18. The neckline was retaken last week, but the index failed to sustain above the same. The neckline has acted as a strong resistance today as well.
A daily close below 7197 would open doors for revisit to 7100 levels (neckline of a bigger head and shoulders neckline).
On the higher side, only a daily close above the 50-DMA would revive bullish view.
FTSE 100 - Consolidation before further sell-offThe retreat from the intraday high of 7134 indicates upticks are being sold into. Moreover, the early gains were largely due to the 6% rally in iron ore prices, which is nothing but a technical correction. The metal has been on a one way losing streak for quite some time now.
Overall, the doors remain open for a drop to 7054 (23.6% fib and head and shoulders target). The ongoing consolidation is merely for 5-DMA and 10-DMA to do the catch up job. The averages still look overstretched.
FTSE100 - Head & Shoulder target coincides with 23.6% fib retr.The 23.6% Fib retracement of the rally from Brexit referendum day low stands at 7054. The index has breached the head and shoulder neckline yesterday and as per the measured height method we get the downside target around 7059, which pretty much coincides with the 23.6% fib retracement level.
Looks like another 70 point sell-off is a done deal
FTSE100 eyes 7054The 23.6% fib retracement of the rally from the Brexit referendum day low is 7054. Note that GBP/USD has already breached the 23.6% fib retracement (1.2640) hurdle of the Brexit sell-off.
Given the strong negative correlation between GBP/USD and FTSE100, it is safe to assume that the mining heavy index could slide to 7054 levels.
FTSE100 – Daily close above 7360 would be bullishThursday’s rebound from the head and shoulder neckline followed by rebound from the sub-50-DMA levels today suggests the bears may have run out of steam.
A daily close above the rising trend line hurdle of 7360 would open doors for revisit to record highs around 7450.
On the downside, only a break below H&S neckline would revive bearishness.
FTSE 100 – Rejected at confluence of trend lines, bears reinforcThe mining-heavy index failed to cut through – resistance offered by the rising trend line drawn from Brexit referendum low and descending trend line drawn from Mar 21 high and Mar 30 high).
The failure to take out the key trend line hurdle and rejection at Jan 16 high of 7354 if followed by a break below 7321 would open doors for a sell-off to the head and shoulder neckline level of 7260.
FTSE100 - Bears remain in controlThe odds of the index dropping to the neckline support of 7260 are still intact. Yesterday's high market rejection at the blue trend line... The index needs to retake the larger rising trend line to abort bearish view
